Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[UnderOpenSky]

Trump’s choice of Vance ‘terrible news’ for Ukraine, Europe experts warn

Running mate likely to push Trump to pursue ‘America first’ foreign policy and deal with Putin to end war in Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

Russian soft power is doing well then. Probably didn't even cost that much.

 

[Pickman's model]

Russian soft power is doing well then. Probably didn't even cost that much.

Yeh the russians did all the heavy lifting some years ago and now the Americans are acting in moscow's interests of their own accord

 

[Yossarian]

JD Vance is younger than three of Trump's children and his foreign policy experience appears to be limited to six months as a military journalist in Iraq - I don't think he's likely to be in the driving seat when it comes to foreign policy or much else, not that Trump is likely to be any better

 

[krtek a houby]

JD Vance is younger than three of Trump's children and his foreign policy experience appears to be limited to six months as a military journalist in Iraq - I don't think he's likely to be in the driving seat when it comes to foreign policy or much else, not that Trump is likely to be any better

His Jerusalem move seemed to please a lot of people. And the historical Kim Jong Un photo op was... useless

 

[Riklet]

Nah. To a Russian it's probably just all part of the Venn diagram of homophones involving Clapham, Clapton, Clacton etc. He probably meant Clacton and nobody could object to that being nuked surely?

Fat Boy, Little Man and then in 2024 Big Cunt aka Nuclear Nige.

 

[Yossarian]

In a shock move, the Kremlin likes the cut of Vance's jib

"He's in favor of peace, he's in favor of ending the assistance that's being provided and we can only welcome that because that's what we need - to stop pumping Ukraine full of weapons and then the war will end," Lavrov told reporters.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-ready-work-with-any-us-leader-says-lavrov-2024-07-17/

 

[TopCat]

David Lammy is ready and willing to work with Vance. David Lammy says he can find common ground with JD Vance

 

[Pickman's model]

David Lammy is ready and willing to work with Vance. David Lammy says he can find common ground with JD Vance

Yes they both have a and d in their name.

 

[Chz]

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www.ft.com

BAE has increased production of 155mm artillery shells under a contract with the UK Ministry of Defence that will see it raise its production capacity eight-fold. Woodburn said BAE was making good progress on its investment plans and expected the higher output to come “on stream at the back end of this year”.

One of the lessons from the conflict, however, has been that while companies can add capacity from existing footprints, “there are limits to what you can do”.

“You can pretty much double your throughput by adding shifts and running your capacity flat out, but you can’t do much more than double,” he said.

To do multiples of that, he added, “takes time . . . you are looking at two-year lead times”.

Now as to why they hadn't figured that out two years ago... shrug

 

[Yossarian]

Yes they both have a and d in their name.

Stretching a little for common ground here

"He has had a point of view about Ukraine,” Lammy said.

Though I guess it wouldn't be very diplomatic for him to come out and say "Vance is wrong about everything and I hope that stupid fucker and his running mate get thrashed in the election"

 

[ska invita]

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www.ft.com

Now as to why they hadn't figured that out two years ago... shrug

8 fold. Thats not a short term order, that's future war use

 

[StoneRoad]

8 fold. Thats not a short term order, that's future war use

I would say that's probably re-filling the stockpiles ...

 

[ska invita]

I would say that's probably re-filling the stockpiles ...

They've clearly explained that their existing facilities can only go as far as making double the weapons by getting everyone to do double shifts/overtime/weekends. To go to 8x capacity mean building 8x the amount of production lines/factories to return to normal work patterns. Even if its 6x with overtime that's a major investment in infrastructure - factories and workers. They're not going to build all that unless they know they're going to get use out of in the mid/long term.
Its a horrific end-of-peace-time future that we are being walked into wide eyes open .

 

[Chz]

Apologies for these thoughts being more disjointed than usual. I'm on a call with Citrix that makes me think they're the enemy more than Russia could ever be. So it's mainly a bevy of points that have popped up in my head than any cohesive missive.

I think the issue is this - if Ukraine were a rich country, BAE would happily build the factories to enable them to sell more exports. But that's not the case. Ukraine is mostly dependent on the largesse of Europe and the United States to donate these shells. In which case, BAE has no interest in it without firm orders from the government. Which means the government has to extrapolate what the maximum possible need is going to be.

Remember that the conflict is chewing through millions of shells. No European country has more than their bare minimum reserve available any more. These supplies need (or so the respective governments believe) to be topped up to counter an aggressive Russia should Ukraine fall entirely. On top of how many shells will need to be gifted to Ukraine; because the conflict as it stands looks like it can easily grind out for another year or more. That's a lot of shells. It was claimed earlier in the year that Europe could produce a million a year, but the real number appears to be half that.

Artillery shells are not microprocessors. The required investment is large, but not in the billions or anything (the contract is in billions, but over 15 years and that's for the final product). Mostly it will take time. Even if you could somehow build the factory faster, the human side still needs to be trained up. I'm not quite so concerned about Europe walking into war just because of artillery shell production - they're one of the largest consumables by number after fuel and bullets, but they're not something capable of winning wars on their own. You might start to worry if Rheinmetall re-opens another line for Leopards, or France tells Dassault to get moving on a new tranche of Rafale. Even then, they're not preparing for war without a rather large increase in servicepeople. The training of which, as noted many times in this conflict, takes upwards of a year to do properly. There's no sign of this happening.

 

[Pickman's model]

Apologies for these thoughts being more disjointed than usual. I'm on a call with Citrix that makes me think they're the enemy more than Russia could ever be. So it's mainly a bevy of points that have popped up in my head than any cohesive missive.

I think the issue is this - if Ukraine were a rich country, BAE would happily build the factories to enable them to sell more exports. But that's not the case. Ukraine is mostly dependent on the largesse of Europe and the United States to donate these shells. In which case, BAE has no interest in it without firm orders from the government. Which means the government has to extrapolate what the maximum possible need is going to be.

Remember that the conflict is chewing through millions of shells. No European country has more than their bare minimum reserve available any more. These supplies need (or so the respective governments believe) to be topped up to counter an aggressive Russia should Ukraine fall entirely. On top of how many shells will need to be gifted to Ukraine; because the conflict as it stands looks like it can easily grind out for another year or more. That's a lot of shells. It was claimed earlier in the year that Europe could produce a million a year, but the real number appears to be half that.

Artillery shells are not microprocessors. The required investment is large, but not in the billions or anything (the contract is in billions, but over 15 years and that's for the final product). Mostly it will take time. Even if you could somehow build the factory faster, the human side still needs to be trained up. I'm not quite so concerned about Europe walking into war just because of artillery shell production - they're one of the largest consumables by number after fuel and bullets, but they're not something capable of winning wars on their own. You might start to worry if Rheinmetall re-opens another line for Leopards, or France tells Dassault to get moving on a new tranche of Rafale. Even then, they're not preparing for war without a rather large increase in servicepeople. The training of which, as noted many times in this conflict, takes upwards of a year to do properly. There's no sign of this happening.

perhaps this should tell you something about who is going to win the next war

 

[editor]

Its a horrific end-of-peace-time future that we are being walked into wide eyes open .

And all thanks to Russia and those who seek to appease their war crimes and force Ukraine into accepting total defeat.

 

[Fez909]

perhaps this should tell you something about who is going to win the next war

What does this even mean?

What is "the next war" and who does it involve? Who do you think will win it? Which point in particular from Chz's post - of which there were many - has relevance to your prediction?

 

[ska invita]

What is "the next war" and who does it involve? Who do you think will win it?

We dont know who with, but we do know there are endless reasons to have one - climate change is about the destablise the world in ways not worth imagining. A new scramble for resources and habitable terrain is on the horizon. All we can go on is the utterances of our leaders: prepare for war, the age of peace is over. Get ready for conscription. Multiply arms production by 8.
Oh and the idea that if Putin didnt exist it would all be fine is ludicrous.

As to who will win the next wars the answer is no one.

 

[Pickman's model]

What does this even mean?

What is "the next war" and who does it involve? Who do you think will win it? Which point in particular from Chz's post - of which there were many - has relevance to your prediction?

your bafflement may be eased by going back and rereading the two posts in sequence.

 

[Spymaster]

Strategic control of the Chatham pocket remains vital.

Seems like a sound pre-invasion strategy to neutralise tonysingh’s spider collection.

 

[maomao]

Seems like a sound pre-invasion strategy to neutralise tonysingh’s spider collection.

I know he likes spiders but I really hope he doesn't keep them, or any other creepy crawlies, in his Chatham pocket.

 

[tonysingh]

I know he likes spiders but I really hope he doesn't keep them, or any other creepy crawlies, in his Chatham pocket.

They do like it where it's warm and moist and they can build a nice burrow.

 

[Spymaster]

Museums are well within the scope of Russian targets, tbf.

If I lived anywhere near the Shuttleworth Collection, I’d be shitting myself right now.

 

[StoneRoad]

If I lived anywhere near the Shuttleworth Collection, I’d be shitting myself right now.

Not as much as the chumps that used some "Grand Slams" as gate guards at RAF Scampton ...
it wasn't until they needed to be moved, several years [decades] later, when it was discovered they were still full of kah-boom material ... !
This is supposed to be an urban myth, but I'm not fully convinced.

However, there was a similar myth that submarines not exercising in the Irish Sea - in that case, why were my friends finding sub marker flares washed up on a North Wales beach ...

 

[UnderOpenSky]

If I lived anywhere near the Shuttleworth Collection, I’d be shitting myself right now.

Not much older then some of the kit that's in the war....

 

[WouldBe]

Not as much as the chumps that used some "Grand Slams" as gate guards at RAF Scampton ...
it wasn't until they needed to be moved, several years [decades] later, when it was discovered they were still full of kah-boom material ... !
This is supposed to be an urban myth, but I'm not fully convinced.

However, there was a similar myth that submarines not exercising in the Irish Sea - in that case, why were my friends finding sub marker flares washed up on a North Wales beach ...

They nearly ended up with a torpedo at Aldergrove airport in Belfast. When some of the squaddies had a slow shift they were looking at what they could order through army stores. Someone thought it would be funny to order a torpedo and put the order in. It went through and was only when they were about to load it onto a lorry that someone twigged that Aldergrove was landlocked. Had it been delivered they would have been stuck with it as ammo was classed as consumables and couldn't be returned.

 

[Fez909]

your bafflement may be eased by going back and rereading the two posts in sequence.

I have, twice now. And your cryptic post still doesn't mean anything to me.

Would you mind explaining?

 

[Pickman's model]

I have, twice now. And your cryptic post still doesn't mean anything to me.

Would you mind explaining?

The refusal to move to a wartime economy or to fund the enlargement of the armed forces to any sensible degree on the part not only of this government but other governments across the continent, in north America and in Australia and new Zealand means that should war come the western powers may be found wanting. There is at the same time no desire to speak the language of peace but rather bellicose words and actions, eg the ukusa alliance with Australia for the production of submarines, towards Russia and China, the two most likely powers to oppose western interests by force of arms. So the lack of preparation or of any real action to avert a conflict may be seen, should war come, as a great factor in its likely result- namely a defeat for the nato countries plus Pacific friends. Clearly things may change between now and any outbreak of hostilities. But the American and European refusal to move to a wartime economy leaves their forces with the wherewithal to fight for a very brief period. We all remember the Americans running out of tomahawk cruise missiles on a number of occasions and they haven't even been to war with a peer or near peer country since maybe the 1950s. And the most likely venue for a major war involving the western powers isn't Europe or the middle east or north Africa but the eastern Pacific, China's home turf.

Not only will western forces (plus japan) be playing away, they will also face a number of fairly new challenges. For the first time the Americans expect to face problems in mobilisation at home due to eg cyber attacks. A great deal of infrastructure has been bought by the Chinese. There are a number of levels below actual armed conflict in which the russians and Chinese are miles ahead of the Americans and their western allies. For example the American ability to project power in the information field is diminishing as the russians and Chinese are pressing great resources into the information domain.

Tldr? Bellicose statements from western governments not backed up by either actions or any pacific diplomatic strategy. This may well play a significant part in the outcome of any future conflict. It's not the 1930s when you could press someone into service with a fairly brief course of training.

 

[TopCat]

Nationalist campaigner for the Ukrainian language is shot dead in Lviv

Iryna Farion, 60, a former MP known for her opposition to officials speaking in Russian, was attacked on the street

www.theguardian.com

Punch Russian speakers in the jaw was her campaign

 

[Pickman's model]

I wouldn't have led this story with the example of someone who killed his father in law after downing less than 2 pints ‘I’m a person again’: the Ukrainian convicts recruited to fight the war 'both men were drunk'? Really?