Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
The suggestion that individuals posting on Urban75, should make a material difference to the war in Ukraine, or desist from posting opinions is, quite frankly, bizarre.
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
The suggestion that individuals posting on Urban75, should make a material difference to the war in Ukraine, or desist from posting opinions is, quite frankly, bizarre.
maomao
普費斯
I think that's the point of the comment.
andysays
Love and solidarity
That's not how I read Elpenor's post, TBH.
They can comment themselves if they choose, but to me it was more reference to some posters here appearing to think that they can materially boost Ukraine's chances simply by posting a stream of positive, supportive and uncritical wishful thinking.
But maybe that's just me
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
If 'and i dont say it's Elpenor's opinion - it's someone's opinion that posters should offer material support to the belligerent they support then it's bizarre to attack them for voicing their view
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
The stuff that will blunt the Russian advance - both tactically and on operational/societal terms - is stuff that isn't manpower intensive over what they already have in those roles, so air defence, air power, deep fires, CS artillery. You could increase both Ukrainian socks and their rate of use exponentially without requiring much in the way of force generation.
If the Russian Army in the field was under sufficient - and quite achievable - artillery and air attack, as well as having it's own logistics subject to air and deep fires interdiction, then the current Ukrainian Army is perfectly capable of preventing them moving any further into Ukraine, and indeed rolling them back as their logistical position becomes more difficult. This village, then that village, then this crossroads, rather than Blitzkrieg.
It's still perfectly winnable for Ukraine, but that depends on a) a fairly quick uplift on stuff they can use now, and b) the Russians seeing, and believing, that Europe will build, and finance, the munitions production that Ukraine needs for however long Ukraine's population want to continue fighting.
It will, obviously, cost the Ukrainians a lot more blood and wrecked cities than it would had this stuff been done in 2020, or 2020, or 2018, or 2023...
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
All of this relies on the russians not developing new ways of doing things. And they do learn - see eg Russia’s battle-hardened army is learning – and it's very bad news for Nato. So it's a race between new capabilities for the Ukrainian forces and adaptation on the Russian side to mitigate or develop countermeasures.
And the supply of these new weapons also depends on there being no need for them elsewhere. Regardless of who is in the White House at the end of January, the refusal to move arms production in britain, the United States and Europe to a wartime level makes kyiv a hostage to good fortune. If a situation develops in the middle east or Pacific which way will weapons flow? Sure, the Americans are opening new factories and raising their output of eg artillery shells but not as yet to the level required to supply Ukraine and maintain an adequate supply for their own use
While as you say the way is winnable for Ukraine, they have to be lucky all the time, with who is in power across Europe and in Washington, that arms supplies flow at a constant if not increasing rate, and that the russians don't develop new capabilities and tactics. It's a tall order.
andysays
Love and solidarity
Is that the same "Nobody" who is actively posting in support of a Putin victory, or a different "Nobody"?
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
The former.
ska invita
back on the other side
So why do you think this hasn't happened? If this is your complaint you should take it to NATO not anyone posting on here.
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
krtek a houby
Ave, AV comrades
Tbf, that could apply to any posters here.
Any irksome opinions, light bulb moments or queries about the special operation should be addressed to the main players, rather than us lowly mortals...
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
We could do away with the whole politics forum.
"Don't post here, take it to the government".
editor
hiraethified
Imagine being an apologist or a supporter for this kind of barbarity.Bombing a children's hospital today:
At least 29 dead after 'massive' Russian missile attack on Ukraine cities
Two people were killed at the Ohmatdyt Children's Hospital after an intense Russian barrage, officials say.www.bbc.co.uk
Russia are fucking scum.
Riklet
procrastinación
Spin it out. Accept it will take years, like the Russians have. Produce more military stuff themselves. Reduce their military losses as much as possible.. no costly and risky offensives. Drop the push for conscription and widen the 'wartime effort' jobs that people can take... from IT to mining to driving to medical work to news/social media to counter intelligence. Try and attract more Ukranian men back from abroad too.
No one knows what the future will hold. They could do with more weapons but even with limited flow they will hold out. Just more civilians will be killed by missiles and more soldiers at the front. And with Ukranian popular opinion massively massively in favour of the war (defending their country against illegal aggression) that isn't the main struggle. It's the practicalities of making peace and ceasefire a more desirable end for the Russian state than continuing the war.
I also think they should massively increase attacks on Russian soil. Assassinations. Long distance missile attacks on military infrastructure. More done attacks on energy, oil refineries, munitions and military production. Attack Russian investments and raw material infrastructure in Africa as well. Sabotage and destruction of transport infrastructure. In the end money talks and the Russians will be more likely to come to the negotiation table through this kind of impact than through pointless and ineffective sanctions.
Finally I think they need more propoganda aimed at Russians and Russian soldiers. Illegal broadcasts. Social media manipulation. Hacking. Airdropped leaflets. There's no honour in war... more disinformation and manipulation basically. Including in ex-soviet states, African countries and other "spheres of influence ". Beat the Russians at their own game.
krtek a houby
Ave, AV comrades
Ah, here now...
That kind of comment doesn't really help, whatever you think about Putin or the various factions involved.
Idris2002
cavalcade of hubris
Can they spin it out for much longer, though? Russia is able to devote years to the job because it has a state capitalist machine that can keep plugging away at the job for years. Does Ukraine?
Drop conscription? How? They have conscription because they were desperately short of men to begin with. How is ending conscription going to lead a big flood of fresh volunteers?
Entice more men back - if they weren't going to come back when things were looking brighter, how are they going to be enticed back now?
As I said above, Biden's careful omission of any mention of a return to the borders of 2014 indicates that the fix is in, and anyone who dies on the Ukrainian side from now on is dying to save the faces of local and Western politicians.
editor
hiraethified
Nothing anyone has written here will help those innocent people being slaughtered in Ukraine, and you can fuck off with your patronising lectures about what can and can not be expressed here.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Complicated old world the arms industry. EU had overestimated its production capacity for supplying Ukraine and can't fulfil its target of 1m 155mm shells However 40% of EUs arms production goes to third countries .42 per cent of Frances's arms exports went to states in Asia and Oceania, and another 34 per cent went to Middle Eastern states. The largest single recipient of French arms exports was India. Germany accounted for 30 per cent of arms imports by Israel, the US for 69%. US imports make up just over half of all arms imports to European states.
Lengthy but fascinating article on how and why the EU is failing on production and delivery of shells to to Ukraine
www.rferl.org
Lengthy but fascinating article on how and why the EU is failing on production and delivery of shells to to Ukraine
Investigation: EU Shell-Production Capacity, Supplies To Ukraine Fall Far Short Of Promises
The European Union’s capacity to produce 155 mm artillery ammunition may be one-half to one-third of public estimates by senior EU officials, Schemes and its partners in a journalistic investigation found. And the EU has given Ukraine about half of the 1 million shells it promised by March 2024.
www.rferl.org
krtek a houby
Ave, AV comrades
You know, I've liked and followed you for over twenty years, appreciated your stance on many issues, admired your part in not just the Brixton community but much wider, stood up and stood out when you've been unfairly targeted ...
It's a bit weird when you suddenly go and trash your credibility by making racist comments about a whole country.
If you've read any of my posts, you will know am completely against the invasion of Ukraine.
And have been a staunch critic of Putin, even when it wasn't the thing to criticise his homophobic politics. Something which I got a lot of grief over.
This is very, very disappointing stuff from you.
Imagine if someone said "fuck Wales" because of the Brexit outcome.
editor
hiraethified
How the fuck is it racist? I'm clearly commenting on the Russian state and I've made that clear throughout this thread.
And it's perfectly acceptable to make expressions of grief and outrage when children are blown to pieces by in an illegal war led by a war criminal.
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Sad, particularly with Europe about to be the only provider of shells to Ukraine. Unless RoK steps up.Complicated old world the arms industry. EU had overestimated its production capacity for supplying Ukraine and can't fulfil its target of 1m 155mm shells However 40% of EUs arms production goes to third countries .42 per cent of Frances's arms exports went to states in Asia and Oceania, and another 34 per cent went to Middle Eastern states. The largest single recipient of French arms exports was India. Germany accounted for 30 per cent of arms imports by Israel, the US for 69%. US imports make up just over half of all arms imports to European states.
Lengthy but fascinating article on how and why the EU is failing on production and delivery of shells to to Ukraine
Investigation: EU Shell-Production Capacity, Supplies To Ukraine Fall Far Short Of Promises
The European Union’s capacity to produce 155 mm artillery ammunition may be one-half to one-third of public estimates by senior EU officials, Schemes and its partners in a journalistic investigation found. And the EU has given Ukraine about half of the 1 million shells it promised by March 2024.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I'd have thought that if someone meant the state it'd be eg "france is scum' rather than 'france are scum' which seems to me broader than just the state.
krtek a houby
Ave, AV comrades
Grammar is be are scum
UnderOpenSky
baseline neural therapy
I'd assume it was the state. If the editor had said "the Russians" then I'd have assumed he meant the people as well.
krtek a houby
Ave, AV comrades
Krtek is having a disagreement with an ill thought out post, from someone who can't stand you either, you dimwitted right wing pipsqueak.
Despite our fracas, I'd still trust him, rather than your tired, repetitive, rancid, beefy showboating toss.
Silly boy.
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