Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[discokermit]

You say that but if there's one big winner from the EU it's Germany... It's the head of the EU

its been a massive loser from the sanctions.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

You're living in the past, look at the date of that graphic. We're in 2024 now and things have moved on. Oh the Queen died too.

But she will live forever in our hearts.

 

[Ax^]

its been a massive loser from the sanctions.

the one imposed on russia when it illegally invaded Ukraine under the false narrative of denazification right?

 

[Pickman's model]

the one imposed on russia when it illegally invaded Ukraine under the false narrative of denazification right?

Jesus go and read up on stuff before you make an arse of yourself again

 

[Ax^]

just pondering you kept banging on about the us invasion of iraq

just want to see we are all on the same page about illegal wars and dodgy narratives

 

[Ax^]

Jesus go and read up on stuff before you make an arse of yourself again

quick editing skills hoss must remember to always quote you

 

[discokermit]

the one imposed on russia when it illegally invaded Ukraine under the false narrative of denazification right?

no, the ones i imposed due to germany selling israel weapons. i no longer buy muller rice. it's crippling their economy.

 

[Pickman's model]

just pondering you kept banging on about the us invasion of iraq

just want to see we are all on the same page about illegal wars and dodgy narratives

Yeh I mentioned Iraq. And if you'd read the thread you'd know why, that us actions have repercussions as they set precedents.

 

[Pickman's model]

quick editing skills hoss must remember to always quote you

Yeh but you won't cos you're pissed or stoned all the time now

 

[discokermit]

im still eating the fruit corners though. im not a cruel man.

 

[Ax^]

Yeh but you won't cos you're pissed or stoned all the time now

and this is not personal attacks or abuse

just be glad I'm not one to hit the report button

 

[editor]

im still eating the fruit corners though. im not a cruel man.

Yeah it's all a big fucking joke to you, isn't it?

 

[discokermit]

Yeah it's all a big fucking joke to you, isn't it?

 

[Pickman's model]

and this is not personal attacks or abuse

just be glad I'm not one to hit the report button

It gives me no pleasure to say it, you used to be a fucking excellent poster but it's my honest belief you're doing something to excess

 

[Ax^]

It gives me no to say it, you used to be a fucking excellent poster but it's my honest belief you're doing something to excess

think you are talking about yourself fella you disappeared up you own arse and are starting wars with people to defend you own little click on the thread

and excess from the fella who has posted over 55 times on the boards today

 

[discokermit]

It gives me no pleasure to say it, you used to be a fucking excellent poster

i think we need some sort of a clarification on this.

 

[Ax^]

i think we need some sort of a clarification on this.

we need some clarification on why suddenly you need assistance with your own battles on the boards fella

that is a serious downgrade of you and topcat capabilities of holding your own ends up

how the mighty have fallen "Save me Daddy Pickmans"

 

[discokermit]

we need some clarification on why suddenly you need assistance with your own battles on the boards fella

that is a serious downgrade of you and topcat capabilities of holding your own ends up

how the mighty have fallen "Save me Daddy Pickmans"

you're ok. i was kidding. you talk shit but you have an interesting way with words. dont take it to heart.

 

[discokermit]

and do not not fear, my end is up. it gets knocked down, but it gets up again. they're never gonna keep it down.

 

[Ax^]

fair play fella as do you

 

[Fez909]

so who are they doing business with? their economy is growing. also aren't they chairing brics at the moment, which has expanded to include egypt, ethiopia, iran and the uae with saudi considering its membership? doesn't sound very isolated, whatever that vote.

I never mentioned anything about how the size of their economy is changing, as it's irrelevant to the discussion on isolation.

But since we're talking about their economy, it's not good. GDP is up, but it's being inflated by war production. Government spending in war related industry is now at about 40%. It's funding this with oil and gas revenues, which it's now even more reliant on.

The sanctions were supposed to stop this, but Russia is mainly selling to BRICS nations who have not implemented the sanctions. They're having to use convoluted trade routes which means they are not getting as much for them as they could, but the high prices mean it's still very good for them in the short term.

Imports are a much bigger problem. The high tech machinery they need has to come via places like Turkey, instead of direct from Germany, so it's costing more to keep the real economy going. Also, the Ruble has lost a load of value, so it's a double whammy of higher costs and lower purchasing power.

Very little of the wartime economy helps the average Russian citizen. In fact, living standards are falling, while they have massive inflation, even despite wage increases.

As ever more labour is employed creating bombs, tanks, etc., along with the loss of manpower from conscription, and the exodus of those avoiding the draft, there's a severe shortage of workers.

Civilian industries are having to pay more to attract workers, pushing up prices further. The non-military parts of the economy have not grown at all, and productivity is flat, or declining.

The real worry is what happened when the war is over? Being so dependent on war for growth either means looking for new wars, or a huge correction as they try to rebalance to peacetime industries.

There's also the sovereign wealth fund. Previously, if Russia made a certain amount of money from oil and gas, it was invested and worked as a rainy day fund, to prop up pensions in times when fossil fuel revenues were low.

Since the war, they've changed the rules a few times to reduce the level of profit required before the wealth fund gets a share. Due to sanctions, they ordered the wealth fund to buy shares in Russian companies to shore up the stock market. Last year they changed the rules again, stopping further investment altogether, and allowing the oil and gas profits to directly fund the war instead.

They have also backdated the rule to claw back surplus from previous year's investments, and so during the most profitable time to be an energy supplier, their wealth fund is shrinking, and future generations are paying for Putin's war from their pension pot.

They have reimplemented capital controls to stop the Ruble collapsing, and are considering whether to make the controls indefinite (they expire at the end of the month). The bank and the Kremlin disagree on this, and the central bank thinks high interest rates are the answer. They set them at 16% in December, up from 7.5% earlier in 2023.

The sanctions are unlikely to end any time soon. The labour shortages will only get worse with more conscription, and more war. A recession is likely coming, if it's not already started, and America is putting pressure on China over its sanctions evading, which China does seems to care about - at least publicly.

So, yep, GDP is up, but at what cost?

 

[Raheem]

It was fucked from day one tbh when they pushed them into creating the oligarchal system

I think they were pushed into various things, but not creating an oligarchy. It was the thing that was in a position to fill the power vacuum, and it would have been on the scene way quicker than anyone from Washington.

 

[TopCat]

Ukraine cancels floated plans to demobilise members of their armed forces who have been continuously serving since the start of the invasion. Lots are very unhappy.

It suggests to me increasing disorder amongst the top brass and politicians. Outcry in Ukraine after Kyiv scraps demobilisation plan for long-serving soldiers

 

[tim]

This is an interesting topic.... How did the different western establishments attempt to play along with post USSR Russia go so utterly fucked. It was fucked from day one tbh when they pushed them into creating the oligarchal system but even so it's a bizarre ride, wasnt long ago Gazprom sponsored the football and Britain was flogging it's newspapers to the dodgiest Russian billionaire they could find.

I don't think it was ever a genuinely integrated part of the west though

How would you define the West, and how would that definition exclude contemporary Russia? Is "the West" a political, cultural, or just a geographical concept? Do you see it as a cluster of nation states, if so what criteria grant entry to that cluster? Is it the USA?

I

 

[Spymaster]

How would you define the West, and how would that definition exclude contemporary Russia? Is "the West" a political, cultural, or just a geographical concept? Do you see it as a cluster of nation states, if so what criteria grant entry to that cluster? Is it the USA?

I

This is the thing isn’t it? These staunch lefties tripping over themselves to condemn “the west” out of pure conditioning, find themselves supporting a regime that epitomises everything they despise about “the west” then trumps it several times over!

 

[teqniq]

Just a reminder for the disgusting Putin fanboys on here:



* Unwatches thread again *

 

[Pickman's model]

think you are talking about yourself fella you disappeared up you own arse and are starting wars with people to defend you own little click on the thread

and excess from the fella who has posted over 55 times on the boards today

So I posted 55 times - so what? What iyo is too many posts, and why? Me, in your shoes I'd have pointed less to my posts on one day across the boards and adverted a rather different number relating solely to this thread. And in years gone by I'm sure you'd have done that.

The simple fact is your cognition isn't what it was. Your inability to see the difference between right and justification for example. You plucked the kerch bridge 229bn roubles from somewhere - yet you never managed to supply the source. Your posts are far less coherent than they used to be. And frankly your formerly excellent sense if humour has been notably absent for a long time. I see editor, bahnhof and enamynton have liked your post. I hope they offer you some of the support I believe you need.

 

[TopCat]

Will desertion increase given the cancelled plans for troop rotation? The risk that a trickle becomes a flood must be a concern for the senior officers.

 

[ska invita]

its been a massive loser from the sanctions.

Nordstream... ouch....

How would you define the West, and how would that definition exclude contemporary Russia? Is "the West" a political, cultural, or just a geographical concept? Do you see it as a cluster of nation states, if so what criteria grant entry to that cluster? Is it the USA?

Do your own research

 

[mojo pixy]

The simple fact is your cognition isn't what it was.

This is well out of order. Who are you to say anyone's "cognition isn't what it was"? Could be that Ax^ is so bored of the same stupid, stubborn reactionary shit being posted again and again they're just taking the piss now.

I've got no mileage in defending any other poster, but this thread really is bringing out the worst in people; even the errr legendary pickmans model is so bereft of actual arguments he needs to start casting aspersions on someone else's "cognition".

Looking forward to a juicy personal attack, it'd be par for this course