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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

So I posted 55 times - so what? What iyo is too many posts, and why? Me, in your shoes I'd have pointed less to my posts on one day across the boards and adverted a rather different number relating solely to this thread. And in years gone by I'm sure you'd have done that.

The simple fact is your cognition isn't what it was. Your inability to see the difference between right and justification for example. You plucked the kerch bridge 229bn roubles from somewhere - yet you never managed to supply the source. Your posts are far less coherent than they used to be. And frankly your formerly excellent sense if humour has been notably absent for a long time. I see editor, bahnhof and enamynton have liked your post. I hope they offer you some of the support I believe you need.

still fishing for a reaction so you can hit the report button I see..

your problem is never know when to throw in the towel and move on fella..

have more important things to do like go to work that argue the toss all day with an amature neurologist..

as you were :p
 
I never mentioned anything about how the size of their economy is changing, as it's irrelevant to the discussion on isolation.

But since we're talking about their economy, it's not good. GDP is up, but it's being inflated by war production. Government spending in war related industry is now at about 40%. It's funding this with oil and gas revenues, which it's now even more reliant on.

The sanctions were supposed to stop this, but Russia is mainly selling to BRICS nations who have not implemented the sanctions. They're having to use convoluted trade routes which means they are not getting as much for them as they could, but the high prices mean it's still very good for them in the short term.

Imports are a much bigger problem. The high tech machinery they need has to come via places like Turkey, instead of direct from Germany, so it's costing more to keep the real economy going. Also, the Ruble has lost a load of value, so it's a double whammy of higher costs and lower purchasing power.

Very little of the wartime economy helps the average Russian citizen. In fact, living standards are falling, while they have massive inflation, even despite wage increases.

As ever more labour is employed creating bombs, tanks, etc., along with the loss of manpower from conscription, and the exodus of those avoiding the draft, there's a severe shortage of workers.

Civilian industries are having to pay more to attract workers, pushing up prices further. The non-military parts of the economy have not grown at all, and productivity is flat, or declining.

The real worry is what happened when the war is over? Being so dependent on war for growth either means looking for new wars, or a huge correction as they try to rebalance to peacetime industries.

There's also the sovereign wealth fund. Previously, if Russia made a certain amount of money from oil and gas, it was invested and worked as a rainy day fund, to prop up pensions in times when fossil fuel revenues were low.

Since the war, they've changed the rules a few times to reduce the level of profit required before the wealth fund gets a share. Due to sanctions, they ordered the wealth fund to buy shares in Russian companies to shore up the stock market. Last year they changed the rules again, stopping further investment altogether, and allowing the oil and gas profits to directly fund the war instead.

They have also backdated the rule to claw back surplus from previous year's investments, and so during the most profitable time to be an energy supplier, their wealth fund is shrinking, and future generations are paying for Putin's war from their pension pot.

They have reimplemented capital controls to stop the Ruble collapsing, and are considering whether to make the controls indefinite (they expire at the end of the month). The bank and the Kremlin disagree on this, and the central bank thinks high interest rates are the answer. They set them at 16% in December, up from 7.5% earlier in 2023.

The sanctions are unlikely to end any time soon. The labour shortages will only get worse with more conscription, and more war. A recession is likely coming, if it's not already started, and America is putting pressure on China over its sanctions evading, which China does seems to care about - at least publicly.

So, yep, GDP is up, but at what cost?

At last a post that contributes to the discussion that one can agree or disagree with or add to rather than pages of tit for tat insults, daft accusations, personal attacks , side cheering and me me posts . Thanks Fez909 .
 
I never mentioned anything about how the size of their economy is changing, as it's irrelevant to the discussion on isolation.

But since we're talking about their economy, it's not good. GDP is up, but it's being inflated by war production. Government spending in war related industry is now at about 40%. It's funding this with oil and gas revenues, which it's now even more reliant on.

The sanctions were supposed to stop this, but Russia is mainly selling to BRICS nations who have not implemented the sanctions. They're having to use convoluted trade routes which means they are not getting as much for them as they could, but the high prices mean it's still very good for them in the short term.

Imports are a much bigger problem. The high tech machinery they need has to come via places like Turkey, instead of direct from Germany, so it's costing more to keep the real economy going. Also, the Ruble has lost a load of value, so it's a double whammy of higher costs and lower purchasing power.

Very little of the wartime economy helps the average Russian citizen. In fact, living standards are falling, while they have massive inflation, even despite wage increases.

As ever more labour is employed creating bombs, tanks, etc., along with the loss of manpower from conscription, and the exodus of those avoiding the draft, there's a severe shortage of workers.

Civilian industries are having to pay more to attract workers, pushing up prices further. The non-military parts of the economy have not grown at all, and productivity is flat, or declining.

The real worry is what happened when the war is over? Being so dependent on war for growth either means looking for new wars, or a huge correction as they try to rebalance to peacetime industries.

There's also the sovereign wealth fund. Previously, if Russia made a certain amount of money from oil and gas, it was invested and worked as a rainy day fund, to prop up pensions in times when fossil fuel revenues were low.

Since the war, they've changed the rules a few times to reduce the level of profit required before the wealth fund gets a share. Due to sanctions, they ordered the wealth fund to buy shares in Russian companies to shore up the stock market. Last year they changed the rules again, stopping further investment altogether, and allowing the oil and gas profits to directly fund the war instead.

They have also backdated the rule to claw back surplus from previous year's investments, and so during the most profitable time to be an energy supplier, their wealth fund is shrinking, and future generations are paying for Putin's war from their pension pot.

They have reimplemented capital controls to stop the Ruble collapsing, and are considering whether to make the controls indefinite (they expire at the end of the month). The bank and the Kremlin disagree on this, and the central bank thinks high interest rates are the answer. They set them at 16% in December, up from 7.5% earlier in 2023.

The sanctions are unlikely to end any time soon. The labour shortages will only get worse with more conscription, and more war. A recession is likely coming, if it's not already started, and America is putting pressure on China over its sanctions evading, which China does seems to care about - at least publicly.

So, yep, GDP is up, but at what cost?
If you want to get a cynical, much of the oil out of Russia is going through Reliance terminals in India having been sold below market rate. So India is doing pretty well out of the deal. India being a country that opposed sanctions and a country the supporters of Ukraine really want to distance itself from Russia more. Just how opposed to sanctions on Russia is India really if they benefit from them? How much is this a bug and how much a feature?

Add in that India while historicaly a big buyer of Russia arms (but much less now) relied on Ukraine for much of the maintenance. And that India's main rival is China and they are trying to both prevent Russia and China aligning closer, while not burning their bridges with the US and Europe and the whole diplomatic picture is way more complex than some try to present.


Oh and on the economic side things as Russia's growth is being driven by arms while then arms exports are dropping off a cliff the long term prospects don't look great.
 
I never mentioned anything about how the size of their economy is changing, as it's irrelevant to the discussion on isolation.

But since we're talking about their economy, it's not good. GDP is up, but it's being inflated by war production. Government spending in war related industry is now at about 40%. It's funding this with oil and gas revenues, which it's now even more reliant on.

The sanctions were supposed to stop this, but Russia is mainly selling to BRICS nations who have not implemented the sanctions. They're having to use convoluted trade routes which means they are not getting as much for them as they could, but the high prices mean it's still very good for them in the short term.

Imports are a much bigger problem. The high tech machinery they need has to come via places like Turkey, instead of direct from Germany, so it's costing more to keep the real economy going. Also, the Ruble has lost a load of value, so it's a double whammy of higher costs and lower purchasing power.

Very little of the wartime economy helps the average Russian citizen. In fact, living standards are falling, while they have massive inflation, even despite wage increases.

As ever more labour is employed creating bombs, tanks, etc., along with the loss of manpower from conscription, and the exodus of those avoiding the draft, there's a severe shortage of workers.

Civilian industries are having to pay more to attract workers, pushing up prices further. The non-military parts of the economy have not grown at all, and productivity is flat, or declining.

The real worry is what happened when the war is over? Being so dependent on war for growth either means looking for new wars, or a huge correction as they try to rebalance to peacetime industries.

There's also the sovereign wealth fund. Previously, if Russia made a certain amount of money from oil and gas, it was invested and worked as a rainy day fund, to prop up pensions in times when fossil fuel revenues were low.

Since the war, they've changed the rules a few times to reduce the level of profit required before the wealth fund gets a share. Due to sanctions, they ordered the wealth fund to buy shares in Russian companies to shore up the stock market. Last year they changed the rules again, stopping further investment altogether, and allowing the oil and gas profits to directly fund the war instead.

They have also backdated the rule to claw back surplus from previous year's investments, and so during the most profitable time to be an energy supplier, their wealth fund is shrinking, and future generations are paying for Putin's war from their pension pot.

They have reimplemented capital controls to stop the Ruble collapsing, and are considering whether to make the controls indefinite (they expire at the end of the month). The bank and the Kremlin disagree on this, and the central bank thinks high interest rates are the answer. They set them at 16% in December, up from 7.5% earlier in 2023.

The sanctions are unlikely to end any time soon. The labour shortages will only get worse with more conscription, and more war. A recession is likely coming, if it's not already started, and America is putting pressure on China over its sanctions evading, which China does seems to care about - at least publicly.

So, yep, GDP is up, but at what cost?
of course the size of the economy is relevant when talking about isolation. to be isolated is not to trade with them and they are trading with everybody, even if the route is a bit circuitous for some.
lower standards of living? where is the evidence?
most of this is speculation or incorrect and none of it supports your claim of isolation.
 
This is well out of order. Who are you to say anyone's "cognition isn't what it was"? Could be that Ax^ is so bored of the same stupid, stubborn reactionary shit being posted again and again they're just taking the piss now.

I've got no mileage in defending any other poster, but this thread really is bringing out the worst in people; even the errr legendary pickmans model is so bereft of actual arguments he needs to start casting aspersions on someone else's "cognition".

Looking forward to a juicy personal attack, it'd be par for this course :thumbs:
yeh it would be par for the course, this thread's perhaps comparable only to the trans threads in terms of the volume of personal attacks on it. while i can see how you might say it's well out of order for me it's a simple truth. it's his inability to comprehend a simple argument that's led to this exchange, not my being bereft of them.
 
still fishing for a reaction so you can hit the report button I see..

your problem is never know when to throw in the towel and move on fella..

have more important things to do like go to work that argue the toss all day with an amature neurologist..

as you were :p
if you call someone a cunt without provocation when people have already been warned off from that, then you shouldn't be surprised if you get a warning.
 
I never mentioned anything about how the size of their economy is changing, as it's irrelevant to the discussion on isolation.

But since we're talking about their economy, it's not good. GDP is up, but it's being inflated by war production. Government spending in war related industry is now at about 40%. It's funding this with oil and gas revenues, which it's now even more reliant on.

The sanctions were supposed to stop this, but Russia is mainly selling to BRICS nations who have not implemented the sanctions. They're having to use convoluted trade routes which means they are not getting as much for them as they could, but the high prices mean it's still very good for them in the short term.

Imports are a much bigger problem. The high tech machinery they need has to come via places like Turkey, instead of direct from Germany, so it's costing more to keep the real economy going. Also, the Ruble has lost a load of value, so it's a double whammy of higher costs and lower purchasing power.

Very little of the wartime economy helps the average Russian citizen. In fact, living standards are falling, while they have massive inflation, even despite wage increases.

As ever more labour is employed creating bombs, tanks, etc., along with the loss of manpower from conscription, and the exodus of those avoiding the draft, there's a severe shortage of workers.

Civilian industries are having to pay more to attract workers, pushing up prices further. The non-military parts of the economy have not grown at all, and productivity is flat, or declining.

The real worry is what happened when the war is over? Being so dependent on war for growth either means looking for new wars, or a huge correction as they try to rebalance to peacetime industries.

There's also the sovereign wealth fund. Previously, if Russia made a certain amount of money from oil and gas, it was invested and worked as a rainy day fund, to prop up pensions in times when fossil fuel revenues were low.

Since the war, they've changed the rules a few times to reduce the level of profit required before the wealth fund gets a share. Due to sanctions, they ordered the wealth fund to buy shares in Russian companies to shore up the stock market. Last year they changed the rules again, stopping further investment altogether, and allowing the oil and gas profits to directly fund the war instead.

They have also backdated the rule to claw back surplus from previous year's investments, and so during the most profitable time to be an energy supplier, their wealth fund is shrinking, and future generations are paying for Putin's war from their pension pot.

They have reimplemented capital controls to stop the Ruble collapsing, and are considering whether to make the controls indefinite (they expire at the end of the month). The bank and the Kremlin disagree on this, and the central bank thinks high interest rates are the answer. They set them at 16% in December, up from 7.5% earlier in 2023.

The sanctions are unlikely to end any time soon. The labour shortages will only get worse with more conscription, and more war. A recession is likely coming, if it's not already started, and America is putting pressure on China over its sanctions evading, which China does seems to care about - at least publicly.

So, yep, GDP is up, but at what cost?
i don't know what you mean by 'massive inflation' but for me it suggests something rather higher than the c.7-10% russia's experienced over the past year. we've discussed recently the way cars from britain get to russia (see eg Surge in sale of UK-made cars to Russia's neighbours shows how it's beating sanctions). and where cars go no doubt things more useful to the russian war effort follow - see eg https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/...esilient-to-western-export-controls-pub-91894. the sanctions therefore are not isolating russia as was anticipated. you founded your claim of isolation using a chart from 2022 - but things have changed since then and the way countries voted at the un then does not reflect the current reality.
 
if you call someone a cunt without provocation when people have already been warned off from that, then you shouldn't be surprised if you get a warning.

I had plenty of provocation of the last few pages to call you worse, want to post that bitter nasty shite this morning and now want to call me out for swearing at you last week..

the lion, the witch and The Audacity...
 
I had plenty of provocation of the last few pages to call you worse, want to post that bitter nasty shite this morning and now want to call me out for swearing at you last week..

the lion, the witch and The Audacity...
you raised your swearing at me last week, not me - sure that's what you're referring to with the report button bit. if you want to keep supplying examples of what i'm talking about then by all means carry on. but i think you'll have to do it without me
 
i don't know what you mean by 'massive inflation' but for me it suggests something rather higher than the c.7-10% russia's experienced over the past year. we've discussed recently the way cars from britain get to russia (see eg Surge in sale of UK-made cars to Russia's neighbours shows how it's beating sanctions). and where cars go no doubt things more useful to the russian war effort follow - see eg https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/...esilient-to-western-export-controls-pub-91894. the sanctions therefore are not isolating russia as was anticipated. you founded your claim of isolation using a chart from 2022 - but things have changed since then and the way countries voted at the un then does not reflect the current reality.
And Fez909 here's some evidence their import of useful foreign material unaffected by sanctions Mass use of guided bombs driving Russian advances, says Ukraine
 
Difficult thread where the behavioural norm has been allowed to descend into abuse, call outs, swearing and pack behaviour . It hasn't just brought out the worst in some posters , its actually become their default. I'm not sure what can be done about it tbh.
It's an informative thread, or at least it was. Don't really wish to stick it on ignore but maybe some of us need to wind our necks in a bit.
 
Difficult thread where the behavioural norm has been allowed to descend into abuse, call outs, swearing and pack behaviour . It hasn't just brought out the worst in some posters , its actually become their default. I'm not sure what can be done about it tbh.
fez's post sacred > holy > holey - as per my response about russian inflation and the like. but yeh the widespread calling of people cunts and the like doesn't add to understanding of the war and what could have been a thread that showed our exchange of information and ideas at its best has instead become a slag off fest. i saw somewhere recently at a university where the college head was asking about how could people disagree well online. it's something that we should consider here as there are.
 
And Fez909 here's some evidence their import of useful foreign material unaffected by sanctions Mass use of guided bombs driving Russian advances, says Ukraine
Well the article says one on the routes in is Turkey, which was a country Fez mentioned so, seem to be backing up their point if anything.

What I take issue with is your use of the word unaffected and the Guardian's use of "no problem". Can they get around sanctions and imoort these things, yes of course they can anyone who expects otherwise is an idiot.

Can they import as many as before, as easily and as cheaply. Almost certainly not. The question is how much more difficult is and how many problems is it causing them. And that is not a question we can really answer, it is obviously not as many as I would like, but beyond that it is hard to say.

So they are affected to some degree, I wonder why you want to imply otherwise?
 
It's an informative thread, or at least it was. Don't really wish to stick it on ignore but maybe some of us need to wind our necks in a bit.
As an offender I'll try to to wind it in and ignore the ones that bug me. Let you try and actually argue with them, even though I think ot is pointless.

Maybe you are right and I am wrong, not got much hope though.

I still say that some posters on this thread others are so keen to defend are well on there way to being pro-Trump of similar at some point.
 
Even if they're paying through the nose for sanctions-busting material (and I'm sure they can make a lot of the content for that on their own), a US-equivalent JDAM costs $30k, bomb included. They can get an awful lot of those, even if they're paying double.
There is a question if quality as well, and how much that matters.

If they are making stuff now that is less acute and fails more oftern that's bad for them, but it it is not necessarily that big and issue for war of this scale.

This was always my issue with people laughing at them using old tanks and such. A 50 year old tank is still a tank, it still has a big fuck off gun. It can still do a lot of damage and still needs to be dealt with. Maybe it's not as good as a more modern one, but good enough is all that is needed.
 
This was always my issue with people laughing at them using old tanks and such. A 50 year old tank is still a tank, it still has a big fuck off gun. It can still do a lot of damage and still needs to be dealt with. Maybe it's not as good as a more modern one, but good enough is all that is needed.
A 50 year old tank isn't much use against a newer tank. But it's pretty fucking dangerous to anything that isn't a tank. They die easily to modern infantry-held weapons, but Ukraine doesn't have as many of those as they used to, and some poor sucker still has to get into a position to use it.
 
Difficult thread where the behavioural norm has been allowed to descend into abuse, call outs, swearing and pack behaviour . It hasn't just brought out the worst in some posters , its actually become their default. I'm not sure what can be done about it tbh.
It's pretty much impossible to moderate, with any attempt at keeping the discussion less abusive immediately criticised at length by a vocal minority.

Never thought I'd see a thread on urban with long term posters feverishly defending a fascist/neo-fascist regime committing war crimes on a daily basis though, and it's as ugly as it sounds.
 
Trouble with electronic components is that they’re small, so can be easily smuggled. It’s likely not difficult to evade sanctions with this kind of thing, no matter how stringent. If they’ve any sense they will have also built up a stockpile of these before the war or before sanctions kicked in.

I did read something somewhere the other day about an import of saltpetre, a key component used to make explosives coming through a European country recently, which seems beyond ridiculous. And Poland is importing Russian grain, but no protests about that compared to Ukrainian material passing through (one of the protest leaders is from a pro-Russian party and runs a transport company that does a lot of business there, so perhaps easy to see why).
 
I still say that some posters on this thread others are so keen to defend are well on there way to being pro-Trump of similar at some point.
I don't think anyone you're arguing with is, or is turning, pro-Trump, pro-fascist, or anything similar.

The word you're looking for is, according to Lebanese socialist Gilbert Achcar in his 2021 article How to Avoid the Anti-Imperialism of Fools, 'neo-campist':

Gilbert Achcar said:
Meanwhile, Cold War “campism” was reemerging under a new guise: No longer defined by alignment behind the USSR but by direct or indirect support for any regime or force that is the object of Washington’s hostility. In other terms, there was a shift from a logic of “the enemy of my friend (the USSR) is my enemy” to one of “the enemy of my enemy (the USA) is my friend” (or someone I should spare from criticism at any rate). While the former led to some strange bedfellows, the latter logic is a recipe for empty cynicism: Focused exclusively on the hatred of the US government, it leads to knee-jerk opposition to whatever Washington undertakes in the global arena and to drifting into uncritical support for utterly reactionary and undemocratic regimes, such as Russia’s thuggish capitalist and imperialist government (imperialist by every definition of the term)

Gilbert Achcar said:
From this brief survey of recent complications of anti-imperialism, three guiding principles emerge. First and most important: Truly progressive positions—unlike red-painted apologetics for dictators—are determined as a function of the best interests of the peoples’ right to democratic self-determination, not out of knee-jerk opposition to anything an imperialist power does under whatever circumstances; anti-imperialists must “learn to think.” Second: Progressive anti-imperialism requires opposing all imperialist states, not siding with some of them against others. Finally: Even in the exceptional cases when intervention by an imperialist power benefits an emancipatory popular movement—and even when it is the only option available to save such a movement from bloody suppression—progressive anti-imperialists must advocate complete distrust in the imperialist power and demand the restriction of its involvement to forms that limit its ability to impose its domination over those that it pretends to be rescuing.

Whatever discussion remains among progressive anti-imperialists who agree on the above principles is essentially about tactical matters. With the neo-campists, there is hardly any discussion possible: Invective and calumny are their usual modus operandi, in line with the tradition of their past century’s predecessors.
 
Well the article says one on the routes in is Turkey, which was a country Fez mentioned so, seem to be backing up their point if anything.

What I take issue with is your use of the word unaffected and the Guardian's use of "no problem". Can they get around sanctions and imoort these things, yes of course they can anyone who expects otherwise is an idiot.

Can they import as many as before, as easily and as cheaply. Almost certainly not. The question is how much more difficult is and how many problems is it causing them. And that is not a question we can really answer, it is obviously not as many as I would like, but beyond that it is hard to say.

So they are affected to some degree, I wonder why you want to imply otherwise?

Yes, I'd find it hard to find a convincing case that the sanctions haven't affected the Russian economy. However, the state of their economy is far from the rather triumphalist stuff that was spouted about empty shops, washing machines, shovels ect by many when the sanctions were first imposed. I think some of that was a mixture of 'the West is best' even though Russia itself is a capitalist state and a theory that sanctions would bring misery to millions in Russia, discontent and revolt against the war and Putin. In some ways the opposite has occurred as the salaries offered to volunteers are around three to four times the average wage in some areas of Russia, there has been job creation ( not just in arms but also construction) and wages rises. There will no doubt be contradictions/consequences as Fez909 post shows but the material benefits probably help to explain the indifference/ support continuum to the war inside Russia.
 
It's pretty much impossible to moderate, with any attempt at keeping the discussion less abusive immediately criticised at length by a vocal minority.

Never thought I'd see a thread on urban with long term posters feverishly defending a fascist/neo-fascist regime committing war crimes on a daily basis though, and it's as ugly as it sounds.

I think it takes more than moderators to moderate a discussion tbh and yes the thread has brought out a lot of things from out of the woodwork regarding the toleration of fascism and not just to do with Russia
 
Yes, I'd find it hard to find a convincing case that the sanctions haven't affected the Russian economy. However, the state of their economy is far from the rather triumphalist stuff that was spouted about empty shops, washing machines, shovels ect by many when the sanctions were first imposed. I think some of that was a mixture of 'the West is best' even though Russia itself is a capitalist state and a theory that sanctions would bring misery to millions in Russia, discontent and revolt against the war and Putin. In some ways the opposite has occurred as the salaries offered to volunteers are around three to four times the average wage in some areas of Russia, there has been job creation ( not just in arms but also construction) and wages rises. There will no doubt be contradictions/consequences as Fez909 post shows but the material benefits probably help to explain the indifference/ support continuum to the war inside Russia.
Those claims were always bulshit, the problem is how many believed it I guess.. Short term the war is boosting the encomy (not a great surprise) long term they look a bit fucked, but will that bite before the war is over? I haven't a clue.
 
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I think it takes more than moderators to moderate a discussion tbh and yes the thread has brought out a lot of things from out of the woodwork regarding the toleration of fascism and not just to do with Russia
MODERATOR COMMENT


I'm far from perfect and I try and be as fair as I can and not let the personal insults wind me up, but in all my time as a mod here, I've never faced abuse worse than the claim that I am "there on the side with Waffen SS supporters," and see that comment liked by other posters.

I can't think of a single similar site that wouldn't have instantly banned the poster making the accusation.

Anyway, this is off topic for this thread. If anyone wants to discuss it further, please start a thread in the Feedback forum.
 
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