Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[The39thStep]

Whilst we are on the subject of Ukraine's agricultural sector, the EU last week managed to bodge together what they hope might be a temporary appeasement of the farmer's demonstrations over Ukranian agricultural imports. It will cost Ukraine some €330m a year unless they can find other markets however this is down from the estimated €1 billion a year that the French-Polish proposals would have cost them.

The EU elections in June obviously cast a shadow with gains expected by the far right/right populists.

The FT has a reasonable summary here

paywalled ( although mine wasn't ) : https://www.ft.com/content/bf963e91-0ad6-41b8-944b-8483981f67a5
non paywalled : https://archive.ph/GJKRp

 

[emanymton]

The39thStep suggeted a video on global arms sales posted on the "tangential" thread should be posted on this thread. But I think this on focusing on Russia is more relevant here.

 

[LDC]

Today's one is on the topic Global Arms Exports. Not listened to it yet (and even if I did I wouldn't have the knowledge to have that much of a worthwhile opinion tbh), but here ya go...

 

[The39thStep]

Today's one is on the topic Global Arms Exports. Not listened to it yet (and even if I did I wouldn't have the knowledge to have that much of a worthwhile opinion tbh), but here ya go...

This is the one that I asked for. Ta , and also Ta to emanymton

 

[existentialist]

Perun is excellent, though I imagine that'll be enough to maintain my "war fanboi" status in Certain Quarters

 

[The39thStep]

This is a grim read

How Ukraine brings back bodies of dead soldiers in tense exchange in Russian territory
Under Geneva Conventions, bodies are exchanged only after the war. But in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it started after the first six months

https://archive.ph/owid5

 

[teqniq]

This is interesting if somewhat depressing. The guy seems to have done his research. Ukraine drone strike on a Shahed drone factory in Tartarstan accompanied by a dark backstory of youth labour exploitation:

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: I had been expecting something like this, but while this is absolutely a legitimate target, many of the workers are de facto enslaved teenage students and African girls who have reportedly been catfish...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[editor]

So evasion is the name of the game, for you and several other posters with a similar mindset; it is frankly a disgrace to claim to be "anti-war" because you support the colonised surrendering to the coloniser. That is a pro-war position, in fact even worse than that, it is a slimy and dishonest pro-war position.

Nailed it.

 

[Pickman's model]

The39thStep suggeted a video on global arms sales posted on the "tangential" thread should be posted on this thread. But I think this on focusing on Russia is more relevant here.

Yeh. This was covered in eg newsweek last year Russia's arms export industry is collapsing. And it's not wholly because of the war in Ukraine, the 'west' has been working to undermine Russian arms exports for years. BTW it'd have been nice if you said a spot more about your video and why it's relevant, a 56 min video deserves a bit more than I think this is relevant. It's interesting France has overtaken Russia as number 2 France overtakes Russia as world’s No. 2 arms exporter (march 2024)

 

[TopCat]

Article discussing Ukraine intentions to destroy Kerch bridge

‘No choice’: Ukraine eyes Kerch bridge in Crimea for drone attack

Third attack on Kerch bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea ‘inevitable’, say Ukraine’s military intelligence

www.theguardian.com

 

[TopCat]

Ukraine carries out mobilisation age lowering. Ukraine lowers combat call-up age to boost numbers

 

[andysays]

Ukraine carries out mobilisation age lowering. Ukraine lowers combat call-up age to boost numbers

...from 27 to 25.

I'm surprised it wasn't at least as young as that before, tbh

 

[TopCat]

...from 27 to 25.

I'm surprised it wasn't at least as young as that before, tbh

Yes I agree. Especially considering the numbers of much older men currently serving.

 

[existentialist]

...from 27 to 25.

I'm surprised it wasn't at least as young as that before, tbh

I can't remember whose podcast I was listening to about this, but the view expressed was that there was a very conscious decision on Ukraine's part not to send the flower of their youth in to the meat grinder. I guess that, as this drags on, that idealism will have to be tempered with pragmatism.

 

[TopCat]

I can't remember whose podcast I was listening to about this, but the view expressed was that there was a very conscious decision on Ukraine's part not to send the flower of their youth in to the meat grinder. I guess that, as this drags on, that idealism will have to be tempered with pragmatism.

Has there been a comparable mobilisation policy carried out by any other country at war? Throwing the youth in to the front always seemed to be the way the world over.

 

[TopCat]

Guardian added a bit more which is important.
Zelenskiy separately signed a second bill requiring men who were given military waivers on disability grounds to undergo another medical assessment.

 

[The39thStep]

Ukraine carries out mobilisation age lowering. Ukraine lowers combat call-up age to boost numbers

According to RTÉ

Mr Zelensky separately signed a second bill requiring men given waivers from some military service on disability grounds to undergo another medical assessment.

A third bill he also signed aimed to create an online database of those eligible for military service. Both those bills could potentially help the military draft more fighters.

 

[Pickman's model]

According to RTÉ

Rumour has it atos has the contract

 

[existentialist]

Has there been a comparable mobilisation policy carried out by any other country at war? Throwing the youth in to the front always seemed to be the way the world over.

I haven't exactly studied it, but I did have the impression that most big mobilisations started at the younger end of the scale.

 

[Pickman's model]

I haven't exactly studied it, but I did have the impression that most big mobilisations started at the younger end of the scale.

According to Wikipedia they started with reservists. It seems 650k men have fled, reckon another similar number are finishing packing and heading for the carpathians and Romania as we type

 

[TopCat]

According to Wikipedia they started with reservists. It seems 650k men have fled, reckon another similar number are finishing packing and heading for the carpathians and Romania as we type

Reservists then volunteers?

 

[Pickman's model]

Reservists then volunteers?

Mobilization in Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[The39thStep]

If I've read this right and this illustration is correct , Ukraine's age demographics illustrate that the flower of youth is somewhat sparse ( courtesy Wikipedia)

 

[cupid_stunt]

Indian men claim they've been forced to fight for Russia's military in Ukraine

Dozens of Indian men are believed to have been caught up on the frontline, with their families claiming they were coerced into signing contracts.

news.sky.com

They were then arrested by Russian authorities for violating visa laws and told to either serve for a year in the Russian military or face 10 years in prison.

Their phones and passports were confiscated and were taken to a military camp where they were made to sign a contract in Russian.


Families insist the men went for non-combatant jobs. With less than 15 days of training, they were thrust into battle.

More claims of the disgusting treatment of foreign citizens being forced to fight in Russia's illegal war.

 

[andysays]

If I've read this right and this illustration is correct , Ukraine's age demographics illustrate that the flower of youth is somewhat sparse ( courtesy Wikipedia)

View attachment 418427

Where have all the flowers gone?

 

[twistedAM]

Guardian added a bit more which is important.
Zelenskiy separately signed a second bill requiring men who were given military waivers on disability grounds to undergo another medical assessment.

Surely that's because of the corruption within the army recruitment dept where the rich could buy a sick note?

 

[ska invita]

I'm sure you would probably say you support a peace deal rather than support Russia. In which case surely that means you think the border should be frozen as it is under a ceasefire agreement? And if so, what guarantee could Ukraine have that Russia won't take another bite later after recovering their strength?

i do wonder if anyone learns anything from conversations...as said explicitly in draft proposals a peace deal would be guaranteed by foreign powers, "among which the document listed the United States, the United Kingdom, China, France and Russia. "

No wonder this thread is 1000 pages as we have the same conversation over and over.
The war will be resolved with a treaty and the new border will be maintained by force, not trust or good-faith, same as in every other war.
Putin is not some unique figure in world history, this is all standard stuff.
Outside of the Winning delusions there's been a near-enough stalemate on the southern border for coming up to two years now

 

[Rimbaud]

i do wonder if anyone learns anything from conversations...as said explicitly in draft proposals a peace deal would be guaranteed by foreign powers, "among which the document listed the United States, the United Kingdom, China, France and Russia. "

The draft proposal put forward by Russia which you are presumably quoting also includes banning Ukraine from importing any weaponry, banning them from possessing missiles with a range of 40km, and banning them from having an armed forces larger than 85,000.

It also required that the guarantor states you name must agree unanimously to guarantee Ukrainian neutrality. The presence of China makes any unified action from guarantors should Russia decide to invade the rest of Ukraine impossible. Moreover Russia knows that none of those countries would engage in direct conflict to defend Ukraine if Russia decided to go on to Kyiv at a later date. There is no serious security guarantee there which is why it wasn't accepted.

There is basically no compromise from Russia here given that they clearly weren't able to progress at the time it was drafted anyway, as evidenced by the fact they have less territory now than when it was drafted. All the compromises were for Ukraine to make.

 

[The39thStep]

Where have all the flowers gone?

I think Ukraine , like a lot of the post soviet states, has in the last couple of decades suffered from low birth rates , the migration of labour and students studying abroad and not returning. The latter has increased since the invasion, the refugee demographics may also now include the 18-20s catchment and there are also those who have illegally crossed the borders.

 

[discokermit]

Article discussing Ukraine intentions to destroy Kerch bridge

‘No choice’: Ukraine eyes Kerch bridge in Crimea for drone attack

Third attack on Kerch bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea ‘inevitable’, say Ukraine’s military intelligence

www.theguardian.com

i don't understand the ukrainian obsession with that bridge. if they destroy it, what difference is it going to make?