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Tory UK EU Exit Referendum

ska invita said:
Have been wondering this myself. In the Scottish referendum the SNP dominated parliamentary politics and wanted to leave.... Labour would be left without the legitimacy to implement the long process of leaving. One thing I'm certain is that in the short to medium term Boris and Farage would get a massive power and legitimacy boost.... They will be the figure heads and engineers of the exit.
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Figure heads cannot, by definition, be active players. Obviously, really.
 
Bernie Gunther said:
Has Corbyn said anything clear about his policy in the event of a leave vote?

I'm just trying to work out what happens if leave wins, and Boris scrags pigfucker Dave.

If there were to be a general election before article 50 was triggered, which seems at least possible, he'd be in an interesting position.
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Has Corbyn not actually stated that the LP would accept the verdict of the electorate, then?
 
ska invita said:
Have been wondering this myself. In the Scottish referendum the SNP dominated parliamentary politics and wanted to leave.... Labour would be left without the legitimacy to implement the long process of leaving. One thing I'm certain is that in the short to medium term Boris and Farage would get a massive power and legitimacy boost.... They will be the figure heads and engineers of the exit.
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So the Tories with a pisspoor majority do have legitimacy to embark on this journey but a labour govt wouldn't. Why?
 
brogdale said:
Has Corbyn not actually stated that the LP would accept the verdict of the electorate, then?
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Well I'd expect him to, but I haven't found the quote.

Trying to work out the possibilities in the event of a leave vote.

1. No election until 2020 but no article 50 either.

2. No election until 2020 but Boris and his chums trigger Article 50 (assuming they can get it through parliament) and immediately start implementing neoliberal fantasy island in place of all the torn up legislation.

3. Election called and fought on the basis of how Article 50 is to be implemented. (Shape of new laws)

4. Election called and fought on the basis of whether Article 50 is to be implemented.
 
Bernie Gunther said:
Well I'd expect him to, but I haven't found the quote.

Trying to work out the possibilities in the event of a leave vote.

1. No election until 2020 but no article 50 either.

2. No election until 2020 but Boris and his chums trigger Article 50 (assuming they can get it through parliament) and immediately start implementing neoliberal fantasy island in place of all the torn up legislation.

3. Election called and fought on the basis of how Article 50 is to be implemented. (Shape of new laws)

4. Election called and fought on the basis of whether Article 50 is to be implemented.
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3 & 4 would presuppose that enough tory MPs could be persuaded to bring down their own party with the attendant risk that they may not regain power.
 
Bernie Gunther said:
Well I'd expect him to, but I haven't found the quote.

Trying to work out the possibilities in the event of a leave vote.

1. No election until 2020 but no article 50 either.

2. No election until 2020 but Boris and his chums trigger Article 50 (assuming they can get it through parliament) and immediately start implementing neoliberal fantasy island in place of all the torn up legislation.

3. Election called and fought on the basis of how Article 50 is to be implemented. (Shape of new laws)

4. Election called and fought on the basis of whether Article 50 is to be implemented.
Click to expand...

And 2 requires that Johnson (or Gove etc) actually becomes leader of the Conservative party and then Prime Minister.

This may happen, but at the very least it will take time to go through the formal processes, they can't just walk into the HoC on Friday or Monday and say "I'm the Daddy now"...
 
Bernie Gunther said:
Well I'd expect him to, but I haven't found the quote.

Trying to work out the possibilities in the event of a leave vote.

1. No election until 2020 but no article 50 either.

2. No election until 2020 but Boris and his chums trigger Article 50 (assuming they can get it through parliament) and immediately start implementing neoliberal fantasy island in place of all the torn up legislation.

3. Election called and fought on the basis of how Article 50 is to be implemented. (Shape of new laws)

4. Election called and fought on the basis of whether Article 50 is to be implemented.
Click to expand...
If Leave does win it'll be first scenario that happens at least in the short/medium term. The government will attempt to either renegotiate or failing that tie the UK as close as it can to the EU. Followed by another "Are you really sure?" referendum a year or two down the track.
 
If they don't implement leave on the terms the public are demanding (i.e. 'secure the borders') then come the next election it'll be UKIP fighting for a place in government to put such measures in place. I suspect there will be a rush to have the agreements sewn up before the next election to the satisfaction of business so as to reduce the risk of this happening.

My worry with the implementation of a 'points system' for all migrants is that it further reinforces the narrative that public services are for those that 'pay their way' and that those who don't are undeserving.
 
redsquirrel said:
Sorry but this is almost as bad as some of the stuff Mr Moose, Coolfonz etc have come out with. If the Remain voters you're claiming exist they certainly aren't the majority of those on U75.

My bother is going to vote Remain because (i) he thinks that the EU will help protect workers rights and act as a break to the Tories and (ii) he believes that voting remain will boost anti-immigration feelings. Now I think he's wrong on both accounts but the idea that but he want's Britain to be ruled by 'unaccountable international institutions' is frankly bullshit.

Also are there many EU supporters? I don't think so. Repeating myself again, it's daft, actually worse than that it's counterproductive, to confuse a vote for Remain with a fundamental support for the EU.

EDIT: That said I agree that liberals have always been sacred of giving people too much democracy.
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Just ti remind you, diblerto is a confused third-position style racist. Sorry separtist. Sorry, defender of diversity.
 
Bernie Gunther said:
Well I'd expect him to, but I haven't found the quote.

Trying to work out the possibilities in the event of a leave vote.

1. No election until 2020 but no article 50 either.

2. No election until 2020 but Boris and his chums trigger Article 50 (assuming they can get it through parliament) and immediately start implementing neoliberal fantasy island in place of all the torn up legislation.

3. Election called and fought on the basis of how Article 50 is to be implemented. (Shape of new laws)

4. Election called and fought on the basis of whether Article 50 is to be implemented.
Click to expand...

Unless they've put something on the statue I haven't seen (possible). Invoking Article 50 is within the remit of the PM without requiring parliamentary assent. Unlike Mr Osbournes 'emergency' budget. There would be pressure from the markets, though I would say that that pressure would be looking for orderly action both from UK and the rest of the EU. I think Mr Cameron would undoubtedly face a leadership challenge were he to invoke Article 50 (if one were not triggered by the result alone).
They may well be a further plebiscite on whether what has been lashed out between the EU and and the UK during that two year period. (though I can see why they wouldn't).
 
Pickman's model said:
So the Tories with a pisspoor majority do have legitimacy to embark on this journey but a labour govt wouldn't. Why?
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Because the Tories would reconfigure into a pro-Exit squad, whereas Labour under Corbyn wouldn't be able to present themselves in a way that matches agreement with the exit referendum result - they would appear weak and their commitment to it would be questioned at every turn. Same reason Cameron would have to resign. Unless Corbyn secretly wants Exit and is able to do a clever and convincing u-turn on it.

But government aside, Farage and Johnson will be massively empowered and will be able to dictate what happens, even without parliamentary power. The don't just represent the Leave campaign in abstract, they would be vocal and directorial in its real world implementation. UKIP have a huge amount of momentum behind them...its taken years but they're currently the third biggest party on just shy of 20%. I would expect a Leave vote to add to that momentum and to Farage's status.
 
Santino said:
How? In practical terms.
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The potential in parliamentary terms is clear: what seems to me to be by far the most likely option would be that Cameron would be forced to stand down immediately if Exit wins, and faced with with the task of delivering the Exit Johnson would be favourite to take the job (bookies agree), and there's already been talk of Farage taking a future cabinet position. Certainly a UKIP/Tory coalition could be a possibility should the need arise.

But lets say that doesnt happen. There are two further options - Torys continuing to hold power with Cameron or more likely another non-Johnson successor, or a Labour government under Corbyn. In both those scenarios Johnson and Farage are both now positioned as the true voice of Exit, and their political careers are firmly pinned to it. Even if the referendum goes to Exit there will still be a long fight to be had to push it through in a way that satisfies Johnson and Farage and their supporters, and they will have the political capital and 'moral authority' to set the agenda and berate anyone who strays from the path. It is their vision of Exit that is being voted for, not a leftist one. They will be justified to say that the British voting public are being ignored, and that their will is not being exercised, and undermine the authority of whoever else might be in power, Tory or Labour. Cue even more pandering to the UKIP agenda.

A vote for Exit would be the very beginning of years of power politics over what form the New UK might take (and there are many potential versions), and there's no way Johnson and Farage are going to go into retirement post-vote, job done - the opposite - this will be the beginning of their real chance at power, by hook or crook ( but most likely by a quick takeover from Cameron).

I was for Scottish independence, partly because I felt the SNP agenda was a safe way in which to implement it. If it had been a Scottish UKIP calling for Scottish Independence, producing racist posters etc and ready to take power, I wouldnt have supported it. Neither Scottish Exit or UK Exit is a neutral political act; the manner and power behind the process is not just mood music - I think it will profoundly shape the politics of the short and mid term.

To my mind voting for Exit isnt just voting for something that happens to have Farage and Johnson representing it, to which its possible to hold your nose because once it passes there's a post-EU carte blanche to play for - I believe in realpolitik terms it will be a direct vote for them and their agenda. It will empower them and put them centre stage for years to come.
 
ska invita said:
The potential in parliamentary terms is clear: what seems to me to be by far the most likely option would be that Cameron would be forced to stand down immediately if Exit wins, and faced with with the task of delivering the Exit Johnson would be favourite to take the job (bookies agree)
Click to expand...
How often has the early favourite won a Tory leadership election in the past few decades?
and there's already been talk of Farage taking a future cabinet position. Certainly a UKIP/Tory coalition could be a possibility should the need arise.
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Electoral suicide for UKIP.
Johnson and Farage... will have the political capital and 'moral authority' to set the agenda and berate anyone who strays from the path.
Click to expand...
Again, how would this work in practical terms? How are they going to set the agenda - the actual agenda of legislation? Sharply-worded editorials? Demonstrations? How would they overcome a (hypothetical) Labour majority?

We can all construct stories in which vaguely-understood forces like 'momentum' or 'empowerment' cause things to happen, but I've not seen a single credible analysis about how any of this would actually happen.
 
Cant answer your points now Santino, have to work, but another thing - if Remain win by a narrow margin i bet there'll be a bounce of frustrated/angry voters to UKIP. Even more power to farage
 
ska invita said:
The potential in parliamentary terms is clear: what seems to me to be by far the most likely option would be that Cameron would be forced to stand down immediately if Exit wins, and faced with with the task of delivering the Exit Johnson would be favourite to take the job (bookies agree), and there's already been talk of Farage taking a future cabinet position. Certainly a UKIP/Tory coalition could be a possibility should the need arise.

But lets say that doesnt happen. There are two further options - Torys continuing to hold power with Cameron or more likely another non-Johnson successor, or a Labour government under Corbyn. In both those scenarios Johnson and Farage are both now positioned as the true voice of Exit, and their political careers are firmly pinned to it. Even if the referendum goes to Exit there will still be a long fight to be had to push it through in a way that satisfies Johnson and Farage and their supporters, and they will have the political capital and 'moral authority' to set the agenda and berate anyone who strays from the path. It is their vision of Exit that is being voted for, not a leftist one. They will be justified to say that the British voting public are being ignored, and that their will is not being exercised, and undermine the authority of whoever else might be in power, Tory or Labour. Cue even more pandering to the UKIP agenda.

A vote for Exit would be the very beginning of years of power politics over what form the New UK might take (and there are many potential versions), and there's no way Johnson and Farage are going to go into retirement post-vote, job done - the opposite - this will be the beginning of their real chance at power, by hook or crook ( but most likely by a quick takeover from Cameron).

I was for Scottish independence, partly because I felt the SNP agenda was a safe way in which to implement it. If it had been a Scottish UKIP calling for Scottish Independence, producing racist posters etc and ready to take power, I wouldnt have supported it. Neither Scottish Exit or UK Exit is a neutral political act; the manner and power behind the process is not just mood music - I think it will profoundly shape the politics of the short and mid term.

To my mind voting for Exit isnt just voting for something that happens to have Farage and Johnson representing it, to which its possible to hold your nose because once it passes there's a post-EU carte blanche to play for - I believe in realpolitik terms it will be a direct vote for them and their agenda. It will empower them and put them centre stage for years to come.
Click to expand...

I don't agree with you about Scottish Independence, because I didn't trust the SNP agenda, but broadly that's about it for me too. The context of the referendum is crucial. Who wins power and dictates terms immediately post-Brexit is a crucial question.
 
ska invita said:
The potential in parliamentary terms is clear: what seems to me to be by far the most likely option would be that Cameron would be forced to stand down immediately if Exit wins, and faced with with the task of delivering the Exit Johnson would be favourite to take the job (bookies agree), and there's already been talk of Farage taking a future cabinet position. Certainly a UKIP/Tory coalition could be a possibility should the need arise.
Click to expand...

Why would Farage take a cabinet position, he's just spent the last five years courting the disaffected Labour vote who would never vote Boris in a million years?

The assumption that Brexit would lead to an unstoppable ultra-right, with Farage, Boris, Gove and non-entity's like Patel dazzling the electorate and seizing the Tory Party ignores that this would recreate the kind of Tory Party that proved unelectable for nearly a decade and a half. In reality leadership of the Tory Party post-Brexit is likely to be a poisoned chalice, the EU is in a position to bounce them all over on immigration alone - 2 million UK citizens in Europe is a fucking big bargaining chip - whilst moderate Tories, and all the rest Labour/Lib/Green/SNP will blame everything from a rise in unemployment to a spell of bad weather on the bungling negotiators.

If Farage has got any sense he'll bide his time until they fuck up, although even that might not save him - there seems to be an assumption that Boris/Farage are playing the electorate, I think the electorate are playing them. Just because a lot of peope want to say fuck you to the establishment, and a lot of people are worried about immigration, doesn't mean that everyone will suddenly vote to get rid of holiday pay or maternity leave.
 
Farage will fuck himself up with the fags and booze before long.

I'm less worried about the far right here (stuff beyond Farage) because over the last few decades they've been fairly feeble, more concerned about the wind this will put in the sails of Europe's far right. Bigger issue I reckon.
 
farage has said he'd welcome a Gove led party, as would a large number of UKIP members. he'd fucking jump at the chance of a cabinet seat. Of course he'd need to actually be elected to something first.

After the referendum, the 'kippers (should) know they've only really got one election left in them, before they drift away on a sea of pointlessness. If he could find a way, Farage would be right in there.
 
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