Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Figure heads cannot, by definition, be active players. Obviously, really.
Tory UK EU Exit Referendum
- Thread starter paolo
- Start date
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Has Corbyn not actually stated that the LP would accept the verdict of the electorate, then?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
So the Tories with a pisspoor majority do have legitimacy to embark on this journey but a labour govt wouldn't. Why?
Bernie Gunther
Fundamentalist Druid
Well I'd expect him to, but I haven't found the quote.
Trying to work out the possibilities in the event of a leave vote.
1. No election until 2020 but no article 50 either.
2. No election until 2020 but Boris and his chums trigger Article 50 (assuming they can get it through parliament) and immediately start implementing neoliberal fantasy island in place of all the torn up legislation.
3. Election called and fought on the basis of how Article 50 is to be implemented. (Shape of new laws)
4. Election called and fought on the basis of whether Article 50 is to be implemented.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
3 & 4 would presuppose that enough tory MPs could be persuaded to bring down their own party with the attendant risk that they may not regain power.
andysays
Love and solidarity
And 2 requires that Johnson (or Gove etc) actually becomes leader of the Conservative party and then Prime Minister.
This may happen, but at the very least it will take time to go through the formal processes, they can't just walk into the HoC on Friday or Monday and say "I'm the Daddy now"...
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
If Leave does win it'll be first scenario that happens at least in the short/medium term. The government will attempt to either renegotiate or failing that tie the UK as close as it can to the EU. Followed by another "Are you really sure?" referendum a year or two down the track.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
If they don't implement leave on the terms the public are demanding (i.e. 'secure the borders') then come the next election it'll be UKIP fighting for a place in government to put such measures in place. I suspect there will be a rush to have the agreements sewn up before the next election to the satisfaction of business so as to reduce the risk of this happening.
My worry with the implementation of a 'points system' for all migrants is that it further reinforces the narrative that public services are for those that 'pay their way' and that those who don't are undeserving.
My worry with the implementation of a 'points system' for all migrants is that it further reinforces the narrative that public services are for those that 'pay their way' and that those who don't are undeserving.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Just ti remind you, diblerto is a confused third-position style racist. Sorry separtist. Sorry, defender of diversity.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Ah, makes sense. This one had dropped of my radar.
gosub
~#
Unless they've put something on the statue I haven't seen (possible). Invoking Article 50 is within the remit of the PM without requiring parliamentary assent. Unlike Mr Osbournes 'emergency' budget. There would be pressure from the markets, though I would say that that pressure would be looking for orderly action both from UK and the rest of the EU. I think Mr Cameron would undoubtedly face a leadership challenge were he to invoke Article 50 (if one were not triggered by the result alone).
They may well be a further plebiscite on whether what has been lashed out between the EU and and the UK during that two year period. (though I can see why they wouldn't).
ska invita
back on the other side
Because the Tories would reconfigure into a pro-Exit squad, whereas Labour under Corbyn wouldn't be able to present themselves in a way that matches agreement with the exit referendum result - they would appear weak and their commitment to it would be questioned at every turn. Same reason Cameron would have to resign. Unless Corbyn secretly wants Exit and is able to do a clever and convincing u-turn on it.
But government aside, Farage and Johnson will be massively empowered and will be able to dictate what happens, even without parliamentary power. The don't just represent the Leave campaign in abstract, they would be vocal and directorial in its real world implementation. UKIP have a huge amount of momentum behind them...its taken years but they're currently the third biggest party on just shy of 20%. I would expect a Leave vote to add to that momentum and to Farage's status.
bi0boy
Power User
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Maybe, but I've read somewhere that quite alot of private polling is being undertaken on behalf of city corps, hedgies & the like. Could be that they're convincing themselves with such output.
How? In practical terms.
ska invita
back on the other side
The potential in parliamentary terms is clear: what seems to me to be by far the most likely option would be that Cameron would be forced to stand down immediately if Exit wins, and faced with with the task of delivering the Exit Johnson would be favourite to take the job (bookies agree), and there's already been talk of Farage taking a future cabinet position. Certainly a UKIP/Tory coalition could be a possibility should the need arise.
But lets say that doesnt happen. There are two further options - Torys continuing to hold power with Cameron or more likely another non-Johnson successor, or a Labour government under Corbyn. In both those scenarios Johnson and Farage are both now positioned as the true voice of Exit, and their political careers are firmly pinned to it. Even if the referendum goes to Exit there will still be a long fight to be had to push it through in a way that satisfies Johnson and Farage and their supporters, and they will have the political capital and 'moral authority' to set the agenda and berate anyone who strays from the path. It is their vision of Exit that is being voted for, not a leftist one. They will be justified to say that the British voting public are being ignored, and that their will is not being exercised, and undermine the authority of whoever else might be in power, Tory or Labour. Cue even more pandering to the UKIP agenda.
A vote for Exit would be the very beginning of years of power politics over what form the New UK might take (and there are many potential versions), and there's no way Johnson and Farage are going to go into retirement post-vote, job done - the opposite - this will be the beginning of their real chance at power, by hook or crook ( but most likely by a quick takeover from Cameron).
I was for Scottish independence, partly because I felt the SNP agenda was a safe way in which to implement it. If it had been a Scottish UKIP calling for Scottish Independence, producing racist posters etc and ready to take power, I wouldnt have supported it. Neither Scottish Exit or UK Exit is a neutral political act; the manner and power behind the process is not just mood music - I think it will profoundly shape the politics of the short and mid term.
To my mind voting for Exit isnt just voting for something that happens to have Farage and Johnson representing it, to which its possible to hold your nose because once it passes there's a post-EU carte blanche to play for - I believe in realpolitik terms it will be a direct vote for them and their agenda. It will empower them and put them centre stage for years to come.
How often has the early favourite won a Tory leadership election in the past few decades?
Electoral suicide for UKIP.
Again, how would this work in practical terms? How are they going to set the agenda - the actual agenda of legislation? Sharply-worded editorials? Demonstrations? How would they overcome a (hypothetical) Labour majority?
We can all construct stories in which vaguely-understood forces like 'momentum' or 'empowerment' cause things to happen, but I've not seen a single credible analysis about how any of this would actually happen.
ska invita
back on the other side
Cant answer your points now Santino, have to work, but another thing - if Remain win by a narrow margin i bet there'll be a bounce of frustrated/angry voters to UKIP. Even more power to farage
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I don't agree with you about Scottish Independence, because I didn't trust the SNP agenda, but broadly that's about it for me too. The context of the referendum is crucial. Who wins power and dictates terms immediately post-Brexit is a crucial question.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
A dream day would be farage's light plane descending at great velocity on boris on his bike.
nino_savatte
No pasaran!
Poetry.
ska invita
back on the other side
A dream day would bePoetry.
Farage's light plane
descending
at
great
velocity
on boris on his bike.
Why would Farage take a cabinet position, he's just spent the last five years courting the disaffected Labour vote who would never vote Boris in a million years?
The assumption that Brexit would lead to an unstoppable ultra-right, with Farage, Boris, Gove and non-entity's like Patel dazzling the electorate and seizing the Tory Party ignores that this would recreate the kind of Tory Party that proved unelectable for nearly a decade and a half. In reality leadership of the Tory Party post-Brexit is likely to be a poisoned chalice, the EU is in a position to bounce them all over on immigration alone - 2 million UK citizens in Europe is a fucking big bargaining chip - whilst moderate Tories, and all the rest Labour/Lib/Green/SNP will blame everything from a rise in unemployment to a spell of bad weather on the bungling negotiators.
If Farage has got any sense he'll bide his time until they fuck up, although even that might not save him - there seems to be an assumption that Boris/Farage are playing the electorate, I think the electorate are playing them. Just because a lot of peope want to say fuck you to the establishment, and a lot of people are worried about immigration, doesn't mean that everyone will suddenly vote to get rid of holiday pay or maternity leave.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Farage will fuck himself up with the fags and booze before long.
I'm less worried about the far right here (stuff beyond Farage) because over the last few decades they've been fairly feeble, more concerned about the wind this will put in the sails of Europe's far right. Bigger issue I reckon.
I'm less worried about the far right here (stuff beyond Farage) because over the last few decades they've been fairly feeble, more concerned about the wind this will put in the sails of Europe's far right. Bigger issue I reckon.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
farage has said he'd welcome a Gove led party, as would a large number of UKIP members. he'd fucking jump at the chance of a cabinet seat. Of course he'd need to actually be elected to something first.
After the referendum, the 'kippers (should) know they've only really got one election left in them, before they drift away on a sea of pointlessness. If he could find a way, Farage would be right in there.
After the referendum, the 'kippers (should) know they've only really got one election left in them, before they drift away on a sea of pointlessness. If he could find a way, Farage would be right in there.
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