Tory UK EU Exit Referendum

[Mr Moose]

Disillusionment when, economically, things don't change/get worse.

If you believe that is the case and the establishment were not fibbing surely you'll want to vote remain. No one needs more austerity.

 

[brogdale]

If you believe that is the case and the establishment were not fibbing surely you'll want to vote remain. No one needs more austerity.

I believe that's likely whatever 'choice' the electorate make on Thursday...which partly explains why I'm a spoiler.

 

[brogdale]

4m ago09:39

Corbyn ends by telling people to reflect on the wise words of Rowan Williams, the former archbishop of Canterbury, today.

Williams told the BBC in his role as chairman of Christian Aid ahead of refugee week:

Desperate people who have been driven out of their homes by war are being forced to make dangerous journeys in search of sanctuary. Yet many countries are closing their borders and putting up barbed wire.

The UK must not turn a blind eye to this crisis. We can and must do more to respond ...

The rhetoric in the media is one that suggests that the UK is ‘full’, and that those arriving on our shores are a drain on our economy. Not only are these assertions unfounded, but they fail to recognise the positive, life-affirming contributions that generations of refugees have made to British society - and that we ourselves are changed by welcoming the stranger.

Yes, Jez...but equally 'fortress EU' might reflect on those words...the EU is really very UKIPy in its determination to block those seeking refuge.

 

[DotCommunist]

how come everytime rowan williams farted it made the news yet I can't even remember the new bods name.

 

[Pickman's model]

how come everytime rowan williams farted it made the news yet I can't even remember the new bods name.

Williams jr

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Because? What is going to happen to disrupt the Tories chances if we vote leave?

What is going to empower them if we do? They will be just as divided either way. They have a crap majority as it stands. Now throw in the fact that different factions of Tories will be holding resentment against each other, and there is a recipe for deadlock in the party. Leave or remain, there will be no crowning of emperors. No newly-empowered leadership capable of imposing their visions.

Cameron won't be fighting the next election anyway so the leadership change is unimportant. But it will take place soon. And if not Johnson or Gove then who? Osbourne? Not a leader and anyway vote in a Remain crony and the infighting continues.

What makes you think a 'leave' vote is worse for them when in the event of 'remain' UKIP will gather the sort of support the SNP did?

Seriously? UKIP are on the verge of an SNP-style surge in support?

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Leave and the transition to Team Bojo is seamless, the rationale for UKIP disappears and the next Tory majority seismic.

Also, you still haven't explained how "the transition to Team Bojo" will be "seamless", why you think that Johnson would be any different from Cameron/Osborne, or why leaving would make UKIP disappear, or why any of this means an increased Tory majority (a seismic one at that).

 

[Mr Moose]

What is going to empower them if we do? They will be just as divided either way. They have a crap majority as it stands. Now throw in the fact that different factions of Tories will be holding resentment against each other, and there is a recipe for deadlock in the party. Leave or remain, there will be no crowning of emperors. No newly-empowered leadership capable of imposing their visions.



Seriously? UKIP are on the verge of an SNP-style surge in support?

UKIP would go massive on a remain vote. The barriers to voting for them have broken down. In the South East outside of London 60-40 agree with their central position and agree with it passionately right now.

A remain vote will leave those voters feeling as betrayed as Scottish labour voters evidently were. If you don't think so you must conclude that leave just goes away quietly accepting a narrow defeat.

 

[Mr Moose]

Also, you still haven't explained how "the transition to Team Bojo" will be "seamless", why you think that Johnson would be any different from Cameron/Osborne, or why leaving would make UKIP disappear, or why any of this means an increased Tory majority (a seismic one at that).

A Johnson, or Gove coronation is a formality because without it the Tories will be out of step with their voters and unable, in the event of a remain, to stem the tide to UKIP.

In the event of Leave they won and have the support of the electorate as opposed to busted flush Cameron and his colleagues. How can Cameron or other remainers manage the exit they have said they do not believe in?

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

UKIP would go massive on a remain vote. The barriers to voting for them have broken down. In the South East outside of London 60-40 agree with their central position and agree with it passionately right now.

A remain vote will leave those voters feeling as betrayed as Scottish labour voters evidently were. If you don't think so you must conclude that leave just goes away quietly accepting a narrow defeat.

So UKIP are either on the brink of extinction in the case of a leave vote, or ready to soar like a phoenix from the ashes in the case of a remain one? No other possibility here? Like that nothing much changes at all in practice?

 

[Coolfonz]

Also Johnson and Gove will be able to blame any economic downturn on outsiders. Fits in well with the narrative. If any of the negative economic issues come into being - say another 250,000 on the dole - it will be easy for them to blame Europe, immigrants. Cameron would be toast.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Also Johnson and Gove will be able to blame any economic downturn on outsiders. Fits in well with the narrative. If any of the negative economic issues come into being - say another 250,000 on the dole - it will be easy for them to blame Europe, immigrants. Cameron would be toast.

You don't think that a new Tory leadership this soon after a general election might create a crisis of legitimacy for the government? The day after any Tory coup there would be demands for a new election, and those demands would grow in volume every day after that. Anyway, they still have their tiny majority whatever happens. That's the practical reality on the ground.

 

[Coolfonz]

Johnson and Gove just want power. They wouldn't need an election. Crisis management etc would be the excuse. And the more crisis the better for them really, one of their main hands - and Farage's of course who is more straight - is being a victim of foreigners. Farage said today he is "a victim". He is "demonised". It fits well for them, economic problems will be the fault of vindictive Brussels, immigrants, `bankers`, liberal elite etc...

 

[B.I.G]

You don't think that a new Tory leadership this soon after a general election might create a crisis of legitimacy for the government? The day after any Tory coup there would be demands for a new election, and those demands would grow in volume every day after that. Anyway, they still have their tiny majority whatever happens. That's the practical reality on the ground.

Of course there are LOADS of cases of crises of legitimacy for governments.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

This is beginning to remind me of "Boris Johnson: The New Hitler!". It's like a trip Bizarro World. Pure fantasy.

 

[Mr Moose]

So UKIP are either on the brink of extinction in the case of a leave vote, or ready to soar like a phoenix from the ashes in the case of a remain one? No other possibility here? Like that nothing much changes at all in practice?

If you believe nothing much changes why on earth vote leave for an ascended right and an isolationist uk?

The game has changed since the initial calculations that Dave could be beaten. He is wounded and virtually friendless. The Tories who can carry their project on are on leave's side.

And yes UKIP are on a knife edge, that's the single issue thing.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

If you believe nothing much changes why on earth vote leave for an ascended right and an isolationist uk?

I'm not voting for that though. Leave won't result in an 'ascended right'.

 

[Mr Moose]

I'm not voting for that though.

That's what you will get though.

 

[Coolfonz]

I'm not voting for that though. Leave won't result in an 'ascended right'.

None of us know right? Crystal balls etc. But you hope it won't happen.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

None of us know right? Crystal balls etc. But you hope it won't happen.

We don't need crystal balls to tell us what the Tory majority will be on Friday morning.

 

[Coolfonz]

We don't need crystal balls to tell us what the Tory majority will be on Friday morning.

You hope the right won't gain in strength from Brexit.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

You hope the right won't gain in strength from Brexit.

How will they gain strength? Through what mechanism?

 

[Coolfonz]

How will they gain strength? Through what mechanism?

I like your certainty. Can you tell me the score of France Switzerland as well?

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

I like your certainty. Can you tell me the score of France Switzerland as well?

I asked a question.

 

[butchersapron]

None of us know right? Crystal balls etc. But you hope it won't happen.

Can you support your earlier claims please?

 

[butchersapron]

How will they gain strength? Through what mechanism?

Powers. Just.

 

[Brainaddict]

So I haven't been following the thread closely. Have we discussed whether it's a coincidence that the recent white supremacist terrorist attack took place at the height of the poisonous anti-immigrant atmosphere created by the right wing Leave campaign?

 

[Mr Moose]

How will they gain strength? Through what mechanism?

Er because they won and look like winners. Because our flimsy progressive ideas were routed? Never mind you think yours were not.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Er because they won and look like winners. Because our flimsy progressive ideas were routed? Never mind you think yours were not.

Looking like "winners" isn't a policy mechanism though, is it?

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Any thoughts on this? Anyone?

There is an incredible theory that a Brexit won't actually happen even if the public votes for it