The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[Elpenor]

Spring 2024 feels unlikely, but that’s the headline

Rishi Sunak urged to go for spring election by senior Conservatives

May 2024 said to be ‘gaining traction’ as an ‘economic sweet spot’ that may help party minimise losses

www.theguardian.com

 

[brogdale]

Spring 2024 feels unlikely, but that’s the headline

Rishi Sunak urged to go for spring election by senior Conservatives

May 2024 said to be ‘gaining traction’ as an ‘economic sweet spot’ that may help party minimise losses

www.theguardian.com

More than a whiff of desperation about such hopecasting...and again showing that, to these psychopaths, the rate of inflation figure is nothing more than an abstract statistic.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

More than a whiff of desperation about such hopecasting...and again showing that, to these psychopaths, the rate of inflation figure is nothing more than an abstract statistic.

View attachment 384383

Yeah, somewhat lower inflation might be interesting to someone who analyses economic indicators for a living but it's not going to make anyone feel better off is it. There's no way something like that would give them any sort of poll boost.

 

[brogdale]

Just savour the integrity...

“Every person who ends up paying an extra £500 a month because they’ve come off their mortgage deal between the spring and the autumn will end up blaming us,” said one MP. “The quicker we get out the way with a damage limitation early election, the quicker we can be back in power after a spell as the opposition.”

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

So the economic sweet spot will be after another winter of high energy prices, not as high as last year but without extra government help for most, inflation still higher than wages, particularly food inflation, and impending mortgage/rent rises. That's an economic sweet spot?

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

So the economic sweet spot will be after another winter of high energy prices, not as high as last year but without extra government help for most, inflation still higher than wages, particularly food inflation, and impending mortgage/rent rises. That's an economic sweet spot?

'We reckon we've probably hit rock bottom' isn't a great pitch is it.

 

[a_chap]

More than a whiff of desperation about such hopecasting...and again showing that, to these psychopaths, the rate of inflation figure is nothing more than an abstract statistic.

View attachment 384383

"an economic sweep spot"

Sweep spot. Fucking moron.

 

[PR1Berske]

"an economic sweep spot"

Sweep spot. Fucking moron.

I saw "it's just part for the course" yesterday, I think we've lost the fight.

 

[MickiQ]

“Every person who ends up paying an extra £500 a month because they’ve come off their mortgage deal between the spring and the autumn will end up blaming us,” said one MP.

Well yes they will because it's your fucking fault!!!

 

[marty21]

A big defeat for the Tories (which still seems the most likely result) will surely prompt the rump of the party to start looking into PR

 

[two sheds]

Perhaps they'll get enough to form a coalition with the LibDems with the LibDems getting a promise of PR out of it if they just agree to a few more economic austerity measures

 

[Elpenor]

A big defeat for the Tories (which still seems the most likely result) will surely prompt the rump of the party to start looking into PR

Imagine the irony if PR got brought in by the tories

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I expect to see the Tories get a massive humping, followed by whatever is left of the party electing one of the hard right culture war loons. So we get a decade or so of Keir fucking Starmer.

 

[MickiQ]

I don't think the LibDems are stupid enough to ever go into coalition with the Tories (I could be wrong we are talking politicians here) I can see a Labour-LibDem coalition as a possibility though.
If there is then the LibDems definitely want to make PR a non-negotiable condition. Last time they traded 50 of their MP's for a 5p tariff on plastic carrier bags.

 

[two sheds]

Didn't they get a PR referendum with wording that was heavily weighted towards "no fucking chance"?

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Didn't they get a PR referendum with wording that was heavily weighted towards "no fucking chance"?

No it wasn't PR. It was a botched up alternative that no-one understood/was interested in.

 

[two sheds]

That's the one

 

[steeplejack]

well, I'm glad we've managed to cheer each another up.

The Apathy Party will win in Scotland. This may produce some anomalous results. I think a Tory wipeout is far from certain and expect- at minimum- the fat linesman and that bearded glaikit tumshie who represnts the farmers and fishermen of Banff & Buchan to be re-elected. Especially as the Tories poured £20 million of 'levelling up' money into that seat last autumn. Tories could also hold up in cussed, thrawn places like Angus, Ochil / South Perthshire and Stirling.

Labour and the Liberals may pick up here and there but still expect the SNP to pick up in the mid 30s seats wise. Their reputation for 'sober competence' in government is richly undeserved and I am growing to loathe them. However, elections are more based on feelings / guts than sober assessment and discussion of competing manifestos. The default setting for many now is that all politicians are liars and not expected to keep their promises, so why would you bother engaging with some manifesto full of lies / future broken promises?

People will still vote for decent MPs and I would say the majority of SNP MPs are quite well liked and seen as hard working. Labour are too early into their re-build for the seat in which I live and there's no sense whatever of them having the momentum to recapture parliamentary seats. In the longer term the SNP are detested by their opponents whilst there's a lot of shifting from buttock to buttock in party circles, about how comfortable the SNP group seem in Westminster, whilst being utterly ineffective at anything beyond rhetoric. Those inclined towards fundamentalism (Angus B MacNeil) are already openly questioning the purpose of the party's involvement at Westminster.

Yes new SNP Westminster gaffer Stephen Flynn has the douce heartstrings of liberal opinion formers in the New Statesman fluttering and he has a few OMG STEPHEN FLYNN JUST DESTROYED STARMER AND SUNAK AT THE SAME TIME youtube / tiktok clips, but who gives a fuck at this juncture. It's not the turn of the century.

I am just hoping for an oddball Marxist-Leninist / TUSC dinosaur, or somesuch other weirdo independent to stand locally, so I can vote against the Tories without voting for the SNP. Fuck them.

 

[PR1Berske]

steeplejack , you may already be aware, but just in case, you may be interested in how the Scottish boundaries are being changed for the next election. Link here: BCS Consultation Portal

 

[steeplejack]

Thanks, will help with any future cases of insomnia.

 

[PR1Berske]

Thanks, will help with any future cases of insomnia.

With some of the names they've chosen, hysteria might be the more common symptom.

 

[Humberto]

It would be nice if it was more hopeful but it's just the reality that anything deemed progressive will see Starmer battered in the media. He's compromised with figures such as Murdoch, yes, and reversed positions on things. I'm not sure he's duplicitous as such though. More pragmatic, no-frills. Boring.

I think he will be a 'decent PM' by the standards of his recent predecessors. That is, not a laughing stock, clown car fiasco with added lack of any compassion whatsoever. Just a break and respite from Tories in government would bring some relief.

I think it will be a long way back for the Tories.

 

[pbsmooth]

More than a whiff of desperation about such hopecasting...and again showing that, to these psychopaths, the rate of inflation figure is nothing more than an abstract statistic.

View attachment 384383

I think the horrific reality is they will hope everyone being fucked financially can allow them - and the Tory media - to play the 'don't vote to be EVEN poorer under Labour'. a Labour gov that would have you paying for ULEZ, paying for all these waste of time green policies, paying for refugees to stay in hotels in your town etc. about the only cards they've got. so everyone being fucked but some glimmer to cling to is about as good as it gets for them.

 

[redsquirrel]

Spring 2024 feels unlikely, but that’s the headline

Rishi Sunak urged to go for spring election by senior Conservatives

May 2024 said to be ‘gaining traction’ as an ‘economic sweet spot’ that may help party minimise losses

www.theguardian.com

I've seen this mentioned before.
I don't get the logic, increasing the turnout for LEs, London Mayor, etc does not seem like a particularly sensible strategy for a party so far behind in the polls.

I mean if Starmer is found to be involved in child sacrifice or whatever, ok there's some sense. But with things as they are at the moment.

 

[Voley]

Just savour the integrity...

I read that this morning and winced too. The bit about "blaming us," particularly. Nothing's their fault, is it?

ETA: MickiQ thought along similar lines, I see now.

 

[Voley]

If there is then the LibDems definitely want to make PR a non-negotiable condition. Last time they traded 50 of their MP's for a 5p tariff on plastic carrier bags.

I'm still surprised they didn't hold out for a referendum on PR last time they had the Tories needing their support. Nick Clegg could've actually been remembered for something.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

I'm still surprised they didn't hold out for a referendum on PR last time they had the Tories needing their support. Nick Clegg could've actually been remembered for something.

Who?

 

[SpookyFrank]

So the economic sweet spot will be after another winter of high energy prices, not as high as last year but without extra government help for most, inflation still higher than wages, particularly food inflation, and impending mortgage/rent rises. That's an economic sweet spot?

Closest thing to a sweet spot is probably right now, because it's only going to get worse. I'd say it's 50:50 there'll be another banking crash in the next six months.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I think the horrific reality is they will hope everyone being fucked financially can allow them - and the Tory media - to play the 'don't vote to be EVEN poorer under Labour'. a Labour gov that would have you paying for ULEZ, paying for all these waste of time green policies, paying for refugees to stay in hotels in your town etc. about the only cards they've got. so everyone being fucked but some glimmer to cling to is about as good as it gets for them.

yes. although sadiq khan does seem to be a 'selling point' for the tories in some quarters, whatever he does.

and have a nasty feeling there will be more culture war crap - 'labour will let trans people steal your brexit' or something like that.

I've seen this mentioned before.
I don't get the logic, increasing the turnout for LEs, London Mayor, etc does not seem like a particularly sensible strategy for a party so far behind in the polls.

dunno.

there is an argument that some of the recent local elections / by-elections were at least in part tory voters not bothering this time round, but they are more likely to turn out at a general election to stop 'that radical woke lefty keir starmer' (or whatever the daily fail decides to call him)

the tories did worse in the 1993 shire council elections than they did in the 1997 shire council elections which were the same day as the general election, from memory there was one tory controlled english shire council (think it was buckinghamshire) from 1993-97.

 

[brogdale]

- 'labour will let trans people steal your brexit' or something like that.

Wasn't planning on voting, but that might just change my mind!