The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[tim]

They’re both pretty safe seats, both held with more than 50% of the vote. It would be quite an upset if either was lost, although of course that’s possible.

They're by-elections where the the incumbents have resigned farting with indignation The Tories will lose them. That is what happens at by-elections.

 

[belboid]

They're by-elections where the the incumbents have resigned farting with indignation The Tories will lose them. That is what happens at by-elections.

Bollocks.

 

[danny la rouge]

They're by-elections where the the incumbents have resigned farting with indignation The Tories will lose them. That is what happens at by-elections.

It ain’t necessarily so.

(It ain’t necessarily not, either).

 

[tim]

Bollocks.

If the Tories can lose Chesham Amersham under much less contentious conditions, they can lose in Bedfordshire. There'll be some pressure not only from the Liberals or Labour but also from the Johnsonite Right, possibly Dorris standing under a new flag of King Cunt himself

 

[SpackleFrog]

I wonder if the departures of Sturgeon and Lucas are going to end up having an impact? In different ways a clear indication of the limits of electoral politics.

I'd say the Greens will lose Brighton now so their narrative changes from adding to their MP to trying get one somewhere else. Bristol? But will be interesting to see how much momentum Lucas's withdrawal costs them.

I also wonder if the SNP have run out of steam? Scottish posters might well correct me but I can see Labour picking back up a few seats from them as the Parliamentary road to Independence has been exposed.

Both of these will aid Labour who are already positioned as the next winners. But I fear the "sensible pundits" will paint this as a vindication of Starmer's r/w sprint. In turn I also fear we'll see another useless "left of Labour" unity project that'll be founded on poor politics, dodgy figureheads and will pointlessly occupy a bunch of time and energy before everyone falls out and gives up.

The Tories will no doubt go full on NatCon and any of their remaining "moderates" who can't stomach it will fuck off and enjoy their ill gotten gains elsewhere.

Other than that the Lib Dems will probably gain some seats in random places and the media will lap it up.

It's gonna be grim.

Think you're right SNP arrests will have an effect. Could well see Labour grabbing some seats by default.

Since we're on idle speculation, I bet on a GE this year ages ago.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Since we're on idle speculation, I bet on a GE this year ages ago.

Why would the Tories want to call a GE this year? Their strategy is Sunak's 5 pledges (which are bar the boats all bets on what will happen anyway at some point in the future), hope the polls contInue to narrow, hope something turns up. No value that I can see (from their perspective) in going early.

 

[The39thStep]

I seem to remember the SNP being quite popular with some posters on here, no doubt from England rather than Scotland?

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Why would the Tories want to call a GE this year? Their strategy is Sunak's 5 pledges (which are bar the boats all bets on what will happen anyway at some point in the future), hope the polls contInue to narrow, hope something turns up. No value that I can see (from their perspective) in going early.

depends if they know something else is going to hit the fan if they wait.

perceived wisdom is that hanging on for the full 5 years is for governments who don't expect to win (callaghan 1979, major 1992 + 1997, brown 2010) - 2015 was different as there was the fixed term act.

but at the moment, i can't see the current lot wanting to go soon - unless they get surprisingly good results in the coming by-elections in which case there's an outside chance they might.

combination of tax cut (and hope it doesn't crash the markets this time) budget and ramped up culture wars next year seems more likely from where i'm sitting.

 

[kebabking]

I wouldn't fall off my chair if Sunak called an election this year - if you look at what's on the calendar over the next 18 months none of it has got 'this make more people like you' written all over it.

Economy.

COVID enquiry - and it's going to be every day there's new evidence of incompetence and corruption.

Whatever the hell Johnson and his cronies do next - I think Sunak looks good compared to Johnson, but I'm not convinced that another endless Tory bunfight with Johnson on the front pages does the Tory party any good whatsoever.

It'll be a bloodbath for the Tories now - but will it be any better in 18 months, and is there a good chance it will be a lot worse?

 

[belboid]

If the Tories can lose Chesham Amersham under much less contentious conditions, they can lose in Bedfordshire. There'll be some pressure not only from the Liberals or Labour but also from the Johnsonite Right, possibly Dorris standing under a new flag of King Cunt himself

C&A was one of the biggest swings ever and came as a result of an informal alliance meaning Labour didn't campaign there. And the conditions then were arguable even more contentious, considering Johnson had just been busy killing loads of people.

Which isn't to say its an impossible seat to win (Tiverton had a bigger swing after all, a few months later), just that it will actually be quite hard, especially as the yellow scum will think they have a good chance of winning it.

 

[tim]

C&A was one of the biggest swings ever and came as a result of an informal alliance meaning Labour didn't campaign there. And the conditions then were arguable even more contentious, considering Johnson had just been busy killing loads of people.

Which isn't to say its an impossible seat to win (Tiverton had a bigger swing after all, a few months later), just that it will actually be quite hard, especially as the yellow scum will think they have a good chance of winning it.

I assume that Labour will probably leave it for the yellow streaks and concentrate on the other two seats

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I wouldn't fall off my chair if Sunak called an election this year - if you look at what's on the calendar over the next 18 months none of it has got 'this make more people like you' written all over it.

Economy.

COVID enquiry - and it's going to be every day there's new evidence of incompetence and corruption.

Whatever the hell Johnson and his cronies do next - I think Sunak looks good compared to Johnson, but I'm not convinced that another endless Tory bunfight with Johnson on the front pages does the Tory party any good whatsoever.

It'll be a bloodbath for the Tories now - but will it be any better in 18 months, and is there a good chance it will be a lot worse?

Nah, don't buy it. They will wait until they are legally forced to call a GE. The strategy is to hope that the markets ease off on them, that corporations ease off on price gouging as it becomes counter productive to accumulation, that a tax cut budget will get some momentum going and that Labour find a way to blow it. All of those factors say 2024.

On the economy, they will want to leave Labour the biggest mess possible. Given that Reeves has now signalled that Labour will play under the same fiscal rules and is prepared to impose the necessary attacks on ordinary people (and hack out their own investment plans lest they upset the market) they will hope fo a swift return in 2028/9.

 

[belboid]

I assume that Labour will probably leave it for the yellow streaks and concentrate on the other two seats

why? They were a clear second and nearly always have been. The two times the tory majority was below 10%, it was to Labour. In Chesham, &Tiverton) they were already so far behind the libs that they knew they had no hope. The libs came fourth in 2015.

 

[planetgeli]

I assume that Labour will probably leave it for the yellow streaks and concentrate on the other two seats

Labour has a solid base of 28% and 22% in the last two elections there. Even Starmer will see that giving that up is not a viable strategy for a party seeking power, even if it means splitting the anti-Tory vote and letting them win again. Which is what will happen.

 

[marty21]

Fair bit of speculation that Boris will start a new party - a brexit-y party to 'save Brexit' I doubt this will actually happen - but popcorn at the ready should it actually happen.

 

[danny la rouge]

Fair bit of speculation that Boris will start a new party - a brexit-y party to 'save Brexit' I doubt this will actually happen - but popcorn at the ready should it actually happen.

Nope. He wants to be seen as a Winner, not a pathetic footnote.*

(*brought to you by the poster who gave you: Leave won’t win, Trump won’t get to the Whitehouse, and Liz Truss will never be PM).

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Fair bit of speculation that Boris will start a new party - a brexit-y party to 'save Brexit' I doubt this will actually happen - but popcorn at the ready should it actually happen.

Not sure that Johnson will be involved. But the political chasm for a party that aggressively prosecutes the culture war whilst tacking back to Johnson’s ‘levelling up’ agenda economically (presented as the National renewal demanded by Brexit voters) is vast.

Goodwin, the Nat Con conference, the IEA, Farage and a significant wedge of the Tory parliamentary party are already intellectually signed up to the project.

 

[belboid]

But the political chasm for a party that aggressively prosecutes the culture war whilst tacking back to Johnson’s ‘levelling up’ agenda economically (presented as the National renewal demanded by Brexit voters) is vast.

It probably isn't anyway, but it definitely isn't under this electoral system. And as the tories are only interested in power, no split will happen.

 

[two sheds]

At present, no - but there's potentially 18 months between now and counting day. I don't see an avenue for a Tory return to fortune because the hostility to them is visceral and personal - but if a week is a long time in politics, then 18 months is an age.

If it was next week , I'd see the Tories down to 150 seats top end, greens half a dozen, LD's with 30+ and Lab scooping the rest and the SNP halving their seats in Scotland.

But it's not next week.

Yep, factor in several months of paid and unpaid tory propagandizing and whipping up feeling against any minority they can get away with. I just fucking hope it's not enough.

 

[platinumsage]

Does anyone remember what happened to cause the polls to flip 18 months before the 1992 election?

 

[Rimbaud]

In this situation where Labour lost an unlosable election, the likes of Reeves and Streeting still wouldn't understand/accept that a right wing labour party is not something anyone wants. Starmer himself would self-destruct in a spasm of thwarted destiny.

If that happened, you just know that they'd blame it on not going far enough to the right.

 

[belboid]

Does anyone remember what happened to cause the polls to flip 18 months before the 1992 election?

View attachment 378821

I have a vague memory of something quite significant on November 22 1990.

 

[DotCommunist]

oh nvm

 

[marty21]

I have a vague memory of something quite significant on November 22 1990.

That was a lovely day

 

[planetgeli]

Does anyone remember what happened to cause the polls to flip 18 months before the 1992 election?

View attachment 378821

They got rid of Thatcher

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I have a vague memory of something quite significant on November 22 1990.

new manager bounce, sam allerdyce brought in to try and avoid relegation

 

[platinumsage]

They got rid of Thatcher

There was me racking my brains about something Kinnock might have said or done.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Think you're right SNP arrests will have an effect. Could well see Labour grabbing some seats by default.

Since we're on idle speculation, I bet on a GE this year ages ago.

It was ages ago, and I got 6/1. I wouldn't make the bet now.

As others have said though, Sunak will likely either go for whenever he thinks will minimise losses or wait until the last possible moment. Maybe they announce a couple of things, act tough on Johnson, see if they get a poll bounce and go for a winter election - would depress Labour turnout.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[gosub]

Does anyone remember what happened to cause the polls to flip 18 months before the 1992 election?

View attachment 378821

Yep was in Westminster that day