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The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

A thread to discuss the 2024 UK General Election.

At the outset it is important to note that, technically, the next UK GE could take place in 2025, no later than 28 January. However, rat-boy has apparently told the Press that it will take place in 2024:

1703872758640.png

So, with the caveat that this involves believing something that rat-boy has said, here we go...2024 it is.

Many commentators have taken Hunt's recent announcement of a March 6th ("give-away") Budget as a signal of a May GE:

1703872997021.png
The Statesman's Eaton has tweeted to wind up the vermin about the political dangers of not confirming GE intentions:

1703873169967.png
Highly unlikely that I'll be voting, not least because I won't produce photo ID, but I think we need a thread in which to discuss this battle of the tory parties.

May, then?
 
May as good as any I suppose, hold a budget in March to dish out tax cuts in April and then go to the polls in May before the punters realise they've been sold a pup.
Sevenbins isn't stupid, he must known the entrails don't favour him but he might as well go early and hope for the best as let things drag on.
 
brogdale said:
A thread to discuss the 2024 UK General Election.

At the outset it is important to note that, technically, the next UK GE could take place in 2025, no later than 28 January. However, rat-boy has apparently told the Press that it will take place in 2024:

View attachment 406331

So, with the caveat that this involves believing something that rat-boy has said, here we go...2024 it is.

Many commentators have taken Hunt's recent announcement of a March 6th ("give-away") Budget as a signal of a May GE:

View attachment 406332
The Statesman's Eaton has tweeted to wind up the vermin about the political dangers of not confirming GE intentions:

View attachment 406333
Highly unlikely that I'll be voting, not least because I won't produce photo ID, but I think we need a thread in which to discuss this battle of the tory parties.

May, then?
Click to expand...

I'd have thought you'd be advocating that posters to join you in not voting due to photo ID rather than encouraging them to undermine your efforts Brogers
 
 
iiiin the blue cornahhh! A clapped out horror of weirdos and crooks who've wrecked the country and everyone hates! Gove! Truss! Rees-Mogg! The warmed up corpse of Cameron! Led by an over privileged sixth-former!

iiiin the red cornahhh! A blundering confusion of weirdos and would be crooks who're gonna wreck the country and everyone will hate! Reeves! Streeting! Kendall! Some residue of the Brown years! Led by a cardboard cutout!

Oh the choice! I can't wait...
 
be suprised if greens dont have a proper go at sheffield central, manor/wybourn area (very strong labour) being chopped off and moved into heeley should help them out as well as it being new labour candidate. i know local elections are a different thing but all city councillors are green too. theyll need a good candidate though imo the labour candidate is a good one or at least not a dickhead like a lot of them are now
 
Yata said:
be suprised if greens dont have a proper go at sheffield central, manor/wybourn area (very strong labour) being chopped off and moved into heeley should help them out as well as it being new labour candidate. i know local elections are a different thing but all city councillors are green too. theyll need a good candidate though imo the labour candidate is a good one or at least not a dickhead like a lot of them are now
Click to expand...

The Greens have four target seats - Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley, and North Herefordshire - there's some doubt that they will even manage to hold onto Brighton Pavilion, I'll be amazed if they win any other.

www.theguardian.com

Greens head to Brighton targeting four seats at next election

As the party gathers for its conference, co-leader Carla Denyer looks to win over disgruntled Labour voters
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

And, that's assuming they don't go bust before the next GE.

The latest accounts from the Greens, filed with the Electoral Commission, reveal a warning from auditors that a “material uncertainty exists regarding legal claims” as to whether the party will continue to remain financially afloat.

Byline Times has learnt that this uncertainty revolves around impending legal claims from several gender critical activists – including former deputy leader Shahrar Ali, who is suing the party over alleged discrimination based on his views about gender and sex.
Click to expand...

bylinetimes.com

Green Party 'At Risk of Going Bust' Amid Trans Row Legal Challenge from Former Deputy Leader

The party's accounts suggest there is "significant doubt" about whether it can continue as a "going concern" due to a series of legal challenges.
bylinetimes.com bylinetimes.com

They have got themselves in a right mess over the trans issue, with various court cases in the pipeline, they have even suspended their own official 'women's group' over the issue, and members are cancelling their membership as a result.
 
MickiQ said:
May as good as any I suppose, hold a budget in March to dish out tax cuts in April and then go to the polls in May before the punters realise they've been sold a pup.
Sevenbins isn't stupid, he must known the entrails don't favour him but he might as well go early and hope for the best as let things drag on.
Click to expand...
Not sure about that. Every previous government that has been trailing in the polls has held on to the bitter end. That's why I'm not convinced they'll be a may election. Labour are talking it up so as to score points when it doesn't happen by calling Sunak a "bottler".
Tories are hoping a March budget with a few giveaways might briefly revive their fortunes enough for a may election, but I would think it's more in hope than expectation.
 
I look forward to lots of tories losing their seats.

However their potential replacements do not inspire much if any hope and a Starmer government feels like will offer much the same medicine but with a different spoon
 
Kaka Tim said:
Not sure about that. Every previous government that has been trailing in the polls has held on to the bitter end. That's why I'm not convinced they'll be a may election. Labour are talking it up so as to score points when it doesn't happen by calling Sunak a "bottler".
Tories are hoping a March budget with a few giveaways might briefly revive their fortunes enough for a may election, but I would think it's more in hope than expectation.
Click to expand...

Agree. Why not hang on rather than bring forward an election you are certain to lose? It’s more fun being in govt than opposition, and there’s always the chance of a black swan event upending things at the last minute.
 
what the fuck are they playing at with those constituencies? Angus & Perthshire Glens and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry? Montrose is in with Perthsire but is 15m N the other fecking side of Arbroath! I might have to fecking hold my nose and vote SNP ffs :(
 
geminisnake said:
what the fuck are they playing at with those constituencies? Angus & Perthshire Glens and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry? Montrose is in with Perthsire but is 15m N the other fecking side of Arbroath! I might have to fecking hold my nose and vote SNP ffs :(
Click to expand...
The constituncies are supposed to be close in population size which means some of the scottish ones are very large in land area.
 
Kaka Tim said:
Not sure about that. Every previous government that has been trailing in the polls has held on to the bitter end. That's why I'm not convinced they'll be a may election. Labour are talking it up so as to score points when it doesn't happen by calling Sunak a "bottler".
Tories are hoping a March budget with a few giveaways might briefly revive their fortunes enough for a may election, but I would think it's more in hope than expectation.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I'm skeptical about this May election line. If there is some big swing back to the Tories in the spring could see it, but when every (current) indication is that they will be trounced I think the hang on and hope a miracle occurs pressure is hard to overcome.
 
I think skepticism about May is the sensible mode tbh, especially given that most of the noise about that prospect is coming from HMLO with a view to casting rat-boy as "bottler" II.

That said, it is possible to envisage a number of arguments/scenarios in favour of going early in the Spring. Including, if, as seems certain, the vermin want to centre-stage "the boats", it may be that they think the symbolism of getting 1 or a few flights off the ground might just swing things for them before the Summer rise in crossings can prove the policy ineffective?
 
Last week's Huff Post piece about the GE timing also offered this take on how the May 2nd locals might sway the vermin into going earlier:

1703927168622.png

But the same piece did include Osborne's podcast claim that a spring election "has already been ruled out by those around Sunak."

“I’ve been talking to various people…and so all my conversations do indicate to me that they [Downing Street] are looking at the back end of next year,” he said.
“I don’t think anyone at the top of the Tory party is now thinking that a spring election, a May election, is a running possibility. And even an October election is not really on the cards because they’ll be thinking of using September, October to launch what is more likely, in my view now, to be a November, December election. But it will be in 2024.”
Click to expand...

And I do wonder how much the timing of 2019 GE will sway the backbenchers? They went to the country at a decidedly 'non-standard' point of December and romped home with a large majority; they're so desperate that might weigh on their tiny little minds?
 
brogdale said:
Last week's Huff Post piece about the GE timing also offered this take on how the May 2nd locals might sway the vermin into going earlier:

View attachment 406385

But the same piece did include Osborne's podcast claim that a spring election "has already been ruled out by those around Sunak."



And I do wonder how much the timing of 2019 GE will sway the backbenchers? They went to the country at a decidedly 'non-standard' point of December and romped home with a large majority; they're so desperate that might weigh on their tiny little minds?
Click to expand...
Their polling is so bad that I do see them delaying it as long as they can in the hope that things magically turn around. Maybe they decided waiting until January 2025 looked too obviously like they were playing for time so December 2024 it is.

But I think the actual result will be narrower than expected. A lot of people who say probably Labour when asked in polling won't be motivated enough to turn out. And Starmer has given Tories a heap of ammunition with his blatant dishonesty so when campaigning gets underway I think the Tories will focus on that to depress the Labour vote. I think Labour will win on a low turnout but will fall short of a majority and will have to cobble together a coalition.
 
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