The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[Dogsauce]

There are some advantages to going sooner.

Mortgage rates aren‘t going down any time soon, and as more and more people come off fixed rates they’ll suddenly find themselves hundreds of pounds down each month and it’s nobody other than this lot to blame. Homeowners are a core constituency of the vermin and the longer they wait, the more will be pissed off and hating them.

Also oil prices will rise sharply towards the end of next year, as OPEC etc. try to evict a green-leaning government in the US election. Getting in ahead of this avoids facing the wrath of motorists, another of their target demographic.


I suspect Starmer won’t stand up well to scrutiny once things start going and that’ll harm labour, but then rat boy isn’t exactly impressive under questioning. Don’t think there will be much pushing of Reform or other populist parties from external forces (Bannon’s lot, Russia) in the way we’ve seen elsewhere in Europe, they will be waiting for next time as it’s a much easier fight for them against ineffectual Macron types than it is against the current Tory cranks we have.

 

[hash tag]

May as good as any I suppose, hold a budget in March to dish out tax cuts in April and then go to the polls in May before the punters realise they've been sold a pup.
Sevenbins isn't stupid, he must known the entrails don't favour him but he might as well go early and hope for the best as let things drag on.

There are local elections on 2nd May but would that suit the tories?

 

[Puddy_Tat]

There are local elections on 2nd May but would that suit the tories?

probably gets a better turnout / vote in the local elections

the vermin did better in the shire county elections in 1997 (same day as the blair landslide) than they had done at the previous round in 1993, when they went down to one shire county (think it was buckinghamshire)

 

[The39thStep]

The Greens have four target seats - Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, Waveney Valley, and North Herefordshire - there's some doubt that they will even manage to hold onto Brighton Pavilion, I'll be amazed if they win any other.

Greens head to Brighton targeting four seats at next election

As the party gathers for its conference, co-leader Carla Denyer looks to win over disgruntled Labour voters

www.theguardian.com

And, that's assuming they don't go bust before the next GE.

Green Party 'At Risk of Going Bust' Amid Trans Row Legal Challenge from Former Deputy Leader

The party's accounts suggest there is "significant doubt" about whether it can continue as a "going concern" due to a series of legal challenges.

bylinetimes.com

They have got themselves in a right mess over the trans issue, with various court cases in the pipeline, they have even suspended their own official 'women's group' over the issue, and members are cancelling their membership as a result.

I was assured on here that the Greens were an 'off the peg' solution for those disillusioned with the Labour Party

 

[andysays]

I was assured on here that the Greens were an 'off the peg' solution for those disillusioned with the Labour Party

You don't want to believe anything you read on here, though

 

[The39thStep]

You don't want to believe anything you read on here, though

True that. One of the biggest disappointments in 2023 was that the much heralded alliance between precarious workers and the downwardly mobile middle class that was going to replace the working class didn't get out of the traps.

 

[andysays]

True that. One of the biggest disappointments in 2023 was that the much heralded alliance between precarious workers and the downwardly mobile middle class that was going to replace the working class didn't get out of the traps.

Ah, mate, don't tell me you fell for that one

 

[steeplejack]

 

[tim]

I was assured on here that the Greens were an 'off the peg' solution for those disillusioned with the Labour Party

The Tory Party at muesli.

 

[tim]

I was assured on here that the Greens were an 'off the peg' solution for those disillusioned with the Labour Party

The Tory Party at muesli.

 

[hitmouse]

I think skepticism about May is the sensible mode tbh...

Read that and half thought "Christ, don't say they've dug her out of retirement too?"

 

[marty21]

As I've done in every election since 92 , I will stay up all night watching the carnage. I'm not excited about a Starmer government, but I am excited about the Tory carnage on election night/morning.

 

[Silas Loom]

As I've done in every election since 92 , I will stay up all night watching the carnage. I'm not excited about a Starmer government, but I am excited about the Tory carnage on election night/morning.

I will go to bed an hour or so early, 20:00-ish, and wake up to start watching at around 03:30 when the results come thick and fast, the drama starts to take shape, and the sleep-deprived commentators lose coherence.

 

[planetgeli]

Spring election? Nah. They need more time to steal stuff.

October.

 

[MickiQ]

I will certainly stay up late to watch it, I'm still working I will have the next day off. If I actually retire this year it won't be a problem.
I have the complete set of Marx Brothers movies so I will watch one of them during the early counting.
Election Night won't be complete without the Marx Brothers

 

[tim]

As I've done in every election since 92 , I will stay up all night watching the carnage. I'm not excited about a Starmer government, but I am excited about the Tory carnage on election night/morning.

I spent the night of the 1992 election siting, for reception reasons, in the hall next to the door in my Roman flat listening to the results on BBC World Service short-wave election broadcast. Expectations were high but all we got was five more years of John Major. Anyway, I'm sure my expectations would still have been cruelly dashed had we had five more years of Kinnock. The Mafia at the time were busy assassinating Italian politicians who had failed them and prominent public prosecutors, but at least they did it with style. Falcone and Borsellino, the slain prosecutors, also had more panache than Sir Haircut who became their British equivalent.

 

[marty21]

I spent the night of the 1992 election siting, for reception reasons, in the hall next to the door in my Roman flat listening to the results on BBC World Service short-wave election broadcast. Expectations were high but all we got was five more years of John Major. Anyway, I'm sure my expectations would still have been cruelly dashed had we had five more years of Kinnock. The Mafia at the time were busy assassinating Italian politicians who had failed them and prominent public prosecutors, but at least they did it with style. Falcone and Borsellino, the slain prosecutors, also had more panache than Sir Haircut who became their British equivalent.

We had an Election Special party at our flat in Temple Fortune , very well attended , including one Tory who had a great night ffs. It wasn't the best party I've hosted.

 

[Kaka Tim]

We had an Election Special party at our flat in Temple Fortune , very well attended , including one Tory who had a great night ffs. It wasn't the best party I've hosted.

Was the night of my birthday so had all my mates round for "fuck off you tory bastards" session. Felt like a funeral by 2am.

 

[PR1Berske]

I've stayed up to watch the results since 1992 and have every intention to try in 2024.

 

[oryx]

I predict a late election and a hung parliament.

 

[DJWrongspeed]

If it's late in the year I still don't see the public wanting 5 more Tory years? We'll have had another year of wobbling Sunak.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I used to always stay up all night for the results, but more recently I've gone to bed early and got up about 3am, I'll certainly be doing that this year, I am fascinated with what's going to happen overall, but specifically here in Worthing.

The town has been electing Tory MPs since 1841, when Sir Robert Peel returned to Number 10 in a victory against the Whigs, but it looks like Labour will take both seats this year, in Worthing East and Shoreham the majority of 7,474 for Tim Loughton will evaporate, Electoral Calculus predicts Labour having a 85% chance of taking it, with a majority of 8,000.

The more interesting one is Worthing West, where Sir Peter Bottomley, the Father of the House of Commons, has a majority of 14,992, but Electoral Calculus gives Labour a 63% chance of winning with a majority of 2,257.

Facing off against Sir Peter is Worthing Borough Council leader Beccy Cooper, who is running for the third time to become the MP for Worthing West.

Dr Cooper made history five six years ago after she became the first Labour councillor in Worthing for more than 40 years.

And, from that single seat won in a 2017 by-election, for the first time ever Labour took control of Worthing Borough Council in May 2022, taking even more seats last year, and they currently hold 23 seats against the Tories on just 13, and a single LibDem.

So, interesting times.

From Tory stronghold to battleground seat? Labour and Tories fight for Worthing

Voters across Sussex will likely go to the polls this year to determine who controls Parliament and the country for the next five years

www.theargus.co.uk

 

[Pickman's model]

I predict a late election and a hung parliament.

I'd love to see every lamp post along the a1, from its start at little britain to henly's corner, festooned with an mp

 

[kebabking]

I think the Tories will seriously think about several possible GE opportunities over the year, but that each one will fall on the hurdle of the polls having not moved despite whatever transparently crap initiative Sunak has floated that week, and and an (almost) heartwarming belief that something will turn up in December/January to turn around the polls.

My prediction is that Lab support will broadly stick at where it is, but that for the Tories, Reform will be the killer of what hasn't already been killed by Labour and indifference - I see the 1500 or so votes they'll get in most Tory constituencies to be more important than Labour getting an extra percentage point.

I think it'll be a wipeout. I'll be genuinely surprised if the Tories get more than 150 seats, and I wouldn't fall off my chair if they hit 120.

(As Urbans' foremost political forecaster, with my impressive 0.82% success rate, I'll be grateful if no one quotes this in mid-January 2025 as Sunak sits in No10 with an increased majority...)

 

[emanymton]

I think the Tories will seriously think about several possible GE opportunities over the year, but that each one will fall on the hurdle of the polls having not moved despite whatever transparently crap initiative Sunak has floated that week, and and an (almost) heartwarming belief that something will turn up in December/January to turn around the polls.

My prediction is that Lab support will broadly stick at where it is, but that for the Tories, Reform will be the killer of what hasn't already been killed by Labour and indifference - I see the 1500 or so votes they'll get in most Tory constituencies to be more important than Labour getting an extra percentage point.

I think it'll be a wipeout. I'll be genuinely surprised if the Tories get more than 150 seats, and I wouldn't fall off my chair if they hit 120.

(As Urbans' foremost political forecaster, with my impressive 0.82% success rate, I'll be grateful if no one quotes this in mid-January 2025 as Sunak sits in No10 with an increased majority...)

I think it will be held at the latest possible time but be way closer than many expect.

I don't rule out the possibility of Labour snatching defeat from the jaws of victory buy think they will just sneak a majority, helped in part by taking seats from the SNP.

Now let's see how completely wrong we both are.

 

[skyscraper101]

It's still too far out to predict accurately but as it stands I'm calling it for Labour by a moderate majority but nowhere near the landslide of 97/2001.

 

[MickiQ]

According to Electoral Calculus, Derbyshire South will change from Conservative to Labour, Heather Wheeler has been my MP since 2010 assuming she's a real person. I'm not totally convinced she is since the only time we ever seem to hear any mention of her is at election time and I suspect the woman in the picture might be an actress.
We moved here in 2000 and we had a Labour MP at the time so I must have voted for him at least twice though tbh I had completely forgotten about that, it will feel odd voting for the candidate that wins haven't done that in a while.
It will annoy Youngest Q if the election is held in May, she is registered to vote both at home and at her Uni address but May 2 (the day before her 22nd birthday) will fall in term time and where she is already has a Labour MP. She was very narked she missed out by barely 6 months in 2019.

My own current prediction using my patented method of taking wild guesses is that Labour will win with something like a 40-50 seat majority, SNP will lose some seats but still be the biggest party in Scotland. LibDems will do relatively well getting 30+ seats. The Tories will get a major but sadly not fatal kicking and the Greens will vanish without trace.

Electoral Calculus is predicting a Tory wipeout with a Labour majority of 92 but I suspect the pendulum will swing back a bit more between now and Sevenbins deciding to call the date.

 

[marty21]

Was the night of my birthday so had all my mates round for "fuck off you tory bastards" session. Felt like a funeral by 2am.

Yep, that was a bad night

 

[Pickman's model]

According to Electoral Calculus, Derbyshire South will change from Conservative to Labour, Heather Wheeler has been my MP since 2010 assuming she's a real person. I'm not totally convinced she is since the only time we ever seem to hear any mention of her is at election time and I suspect the woman in the picture might be an actress.
We moved here in 2000 and we had a Labour MP at the time so I must have voted for him at least twice though tbh I had completely forgotten about that, it will feel odd voting for the candidate that wins haven't done that in a while.
It will annoy Youngest Q if the election is held in May, she is registered to vote both at home and at her Uni address but May 2 (the day before her 22nd birthday) will fall in term time and where she is already has a Labour MP. She was very narked she missed out by barely 6 months in 2019.

My own current prediction using my patented method of taking wild guesses is that Labour will win with something like a 40-50 seat majority, SNP will lose some seats but still be the biggest party in Scotland. LibDems will do relatively well getting 30+ seats. The Tories will get a major but sadly not fatal kicking and the Greens will vanish without trace.

Electoral Calculus is predicting a Tory wipeout with a Labour majority of 92 but I suspect the pendulum will swing back a bit more between now and Sevenbins deciding to call the date.

Suggest your daughter uses a postal vote

 

[Peter Painter]

Three things I'm hoping for in the GE:

1. Tories lose so many seats that they're not just beaten but are utterly humiliated.

2. Braverman loses her seat.

3. Starmer loses his seat.

I doubt that any of these things will happen but wouldn't it just be wonderful if they did?! Even two out of three would be quite fantastic.