The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[SpookyFrank]

Idle speculation pt.B...

Labour look set to win, but due to a combination of historically low turnout, labour triumphalism and intense last-moment social media campaigning, the tories snatch a very slim majority (2/3 seats). There are riots. State of emergency is announced, curfews etc 'till this situation is resolved'.

There's a drama currently on C4 called 'the undeclared war' which illustrates this scenario quite nicely.

In this situation where Labour lost an unlosable election, the likes of Reeves and Streeting still wouldn't understand/accept that a right wing labour party is not something anyone wants. Starmer himself would self-destruct in a spasm of thwarted destiny.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

There's now two by-elections coming up. In the current political climate the Tories could easily lose both those. Another handful of by-elections could easily encourage voting for LibDems, Greens or even Labour. Depending on just how bad the cost of living crisis becomes anything could happen. You just have to look at the short term impact of UKIP and the Brexit party. Or even Galloway's brief successes against Labour back in the day.

 

[danny la rouge]

There's now two by-elections coming up. In the current political climate the Tories could easily lose both those.

They’re both pretty safe seats, both held with more than 50% of the vote. It would be quite an upset if either was lost, although of course that’s possible.

 

[planetgeli]

They’re both pretty safe seats, both held with more than 50% of the vote. It would be quite an upset if either was lost, although of course that’s possible.

I think Uxbridge will go.

Mid Beds (my constituency where I grew up) has voted Tory since 1931. No chance.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

They’re both pretty safe seats, both held with more than 50% of the vote. It would be quite an upset if either was lost, although of course that’s possible.

With by-elections the rate of abstention matters too. So it may also depend on who stands for the Tories. Pro-Johnson loyalists may abstain, or vote Reform UK or suchlike. Anti-Sunak conservatives may abstain too. Ordinary Tory voters or swing voters might abstain or vote elsewhere. Right now there is no such thing as a safe Tory seat.

 

[rubbershoes]

Rees Mogg resigns as MP at the end of this year. Johnson selected as candidate and wins by-election .

The headbangers flood Graham Brady's inbox forcing leadership election. Johnson storms home and then wins general election .

Johnson still has no policy ideas and has no clue what to do

 

[marty21]

I don’t know the rules but is it technically possible for Truss to put Johnson in the House of Lords with her resignation honours list, and somehow he could become Prime Minister from the upper chamber?

Yes, she could do that , Boris would refuse it though. He wants to be 'proper' PM . He has walked off in a huff as he didn't want to lose his seat in the by-election or GE. Can't see him running at the GE , but post election, if the Tories have been slaughtered, any remaining Tory seat is likely to be a safe seat. I can see Sunak resigning as an MP if they lose the GE , and Boris would love that juicy Richmond seat . Then he'll think he can come back to power .

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I don’t know the rules but is it technically possible for Truss to put Johnson in the House of Lords with her resignation honours list, and somehow he could become Prime Minister from the upper chamber?

this suggests it's constitutionally still possible, but there hasn't been a PM in the lords since 1902, apart from a few days in 1963 between alec douglas-home being appointed PM and resigning his peerage.

In this situation where Labour lost an unlosable election, the likes of Reeves and Streeting still wouldn't understand/accept that a right wing labour party is not something anyone wants. Starmer himself would self-destruct in a spasm of thwarted destiny.

indeed. i know i've said this before, but the blairites take a bad poll / election result as a sign that they aren't right wing enough yet and a good poll / election result as a sign that they are right in becoming more right wing.

Mid Beds (my constituency where I grew up) has voted Tory since 1931. No chance.

dunno - almost anything is possible at a by-election, when some people won't bother, and others will register a protest vote knowing it won't 'let the other lot in' at national level, but will give their party a kick up the arse. and one of the opposition parties may quietly agree not to try all that hard. although i had thought that the LD's were second and labour distant third in the seat, but that's not been the case since 2010 - so maybe it won't be as simple as an unspoken deal to let labour have uxbridge and the LD's have mid beds.

the tories lost control of central bedfordshire council at the local elections last month to a group of independents (sounds like the independents are a mixed bag - some are ex tories, at least one has stood as UKIP in the past) - although like with hillingdon council and that twat johnson's seat, the council area is bigger than the constituency.

 

[Bingoman]

Another by election incoming, if there are anymore mp standing down right now not wait for a general election if I was Sunak i would have to call one if he loses anymore of his ranks right now

 

[platinumsage]

The three gone so far are ones the Conservatives will be very happy to have got rid of prior to their forthcoming naval-gazing period in opposition, and these three haven't done anything functionally useful for Sunak's government.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

would be mildly entertaining if the by-election results are bad and there's another tory party leadership challenge

could sunak basically say 'do that and i'll call a general election now'?

 

[platinumsage]

would be mildly entertaining if the by-election results are bad and there's another tory party leadership challenge

could sunak basically say 'do that and i'll call a general election now'?

Post-Truss and with Johnson's exit I'm not sure where any challenge would come from that would have a realistic prospect of getting off the ground.

 

[chilango]

Post-Truss and with Johnson's exit I'm not sure where any challenge would come from that would have a realistic prospect of getting off the ground.

Farage.

...or slightly more seriously Penny Mordaunt.

 

[redsquirrel]

I could see Gove or Hunt getting it on a save the furniture basis (like Rudd did 2nd time around in Australia)

 

[Dystopiary]

I know this might not be a hugely popular stance but I think there's way, way too much focus on "get the Tories out" and not enough "what next?" because honestly whoever's gonna be in Number 10 things are going to get harder for the majority of people in the UK. Ach, maybe I'm just saying similar to what chilango said the other day, only less eloquently.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Post-Truss and with Johnson's exit I'm not sure where any challenge would come from that would have a realistic prospect of getting off the ground.

...or slightly more seriously Penny Mordaunt.

I could see Gove or Hunt getting it on a save the furniture basis (like Rudd did 2nd time around in Australia)

all depends really - if a lot of the far-right loons quit, then they won't be able to put up a candidate or have enough votes

a 'sensible' candidate (and i mean that relatively speaking) might be able to carry a vote of the MPs who are left, and may be more sellable to the electorate

 

[platinumsage]

Tory coups generally needs a vociferous faction to get going, I'm not sure there is scope for one when the neutered rump of the right are disregarded.

Sunak would have to do a lot more failing than simply not winning some by-elections in order to incite One Nation Tories or similar into a rebellion.

 

[redsquirrel]

I know this might not be a hugely popular stance but I think there's way, way too much focus on "get the Tories out" and not enough "what next?" because honestly whoever's gonna be in Number 10 things are going to get harder for the majority of people in the UK. Ach, maybe I'm just saying similar to what chilango said the other day, only less eloquently.

The anti-toryism culture that used to (partially still does) exist in some working class communities had its good points.
The modern anti-toryism as a political project is a regressive dead end, a support for liberalism in opposition to class politics.

Johnson was venal, self-serving and dishonest - pretty much standard traits for any PM, the most notable thing about him was his incompetency, most PMs do a better job, or at least try harder, to hide their lies.
Regardless of the wet-dreams of Liz Truss and ilk, the Johnson, and now Sunak, governments was/are not libertarian. They cannot be libertarian, as Truss found out. The culture wars stuff (which Labour and other opposition parties are happy to go along with anyway) is precisely because the Tory party has moved away from the coalition's austerity.

Seeing people who supported the austerity pushing LDs (and intend to vote for them next time), people who are currently fucking me and my comrades over by scabbing, get into an ecstasy over Johnson going does my head in.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Even from a Tory point of view - what the fuck have they achieved since 2010 other than brexit? Wages lower, people are poorer, public services (esp NHS) shitter, Inflation is criplingly high, mortgate rates higher. At the end of their last stint in power the tories could boast that the people were better off, they had slain the evil unions, won the falklands war, people had been able to buy their council houses and they could sell a narrative of having "turned the country around" - sure it was all contestable and things like north sea oil had boosted the economy rather than their own policies, but it a credible narrative to sell to enough voters right up intill 1997.

 

[DotCommunist]

Even from a Tory point of view - what the fuck have they achieved since 2010 other than brexit? Wages lower, people are poorer, public services (esp NHS) shitter, Inflation is criplingly high, mortgate rates higher. At the end of their last stint in power the tories could boast that the people were better off, they had slain the evil unions, won the falklands war, people had been able to buy their council houses and they could sell a narrative of having "turned the country around" - sure it was all contestable and things like north sea oil had boosted the economy rather than their own policies, but it a credible narrative to sell to enough voters right up intill 1997.

tbf earlier than that but Kinnocks failure and fptp gave us 5 more years.

 

[Kaka Tim]

tbf earlier than that but Kinnocks failure and fptp gave us 5 more years.

ALLLLL- RIIIGHHHHT!!!! ALL -RIGHHT!!!

 

[danny la rouge]

I think Uxbridge will go.

Mid Beds (my constituency where I grew up) has voted Tory since 1931. No chance.

Electoral Calculus agrees with you on both. Uxbridge going would still be a massive upset.

 

[marty21]

Enjoying yet another Tory psychodrama , they seem pretty good at those.

 

[A380]

I think Uxbridge will go.

Mid Beds (my constituency where I grew up) has voted Tory since 1931. No chance.

If Nad had stayed in mid beds then I think she might have lost as she was almost universally hated ( including by many local Tories). Now if they put up some local ‘inoffensive’ no mark ( I’ve heard a couple of names banded about) they will probably hold it unless there is an almost overt ‘Lib/lab’ agreement to get the yellow slime over the line.

 

[A380]

Being a wanky reformist and doing my time knocking on doors and ticking off names the truth is ( despite the lies we tell to children) is you win elections by getting your vote out and the other side failing to do that.

 

[kebabking]

Being a wanky reformist and doing my time knocking on doors and ticking off names the truth is ( despite the lies we tell to children) is you win elections by getting your vote out and the other side failing to do that.

/pure socialists having fights in phoneboxes with other pure socialists over the wording of the Fourth Internationals' policy on Tractor production be looking down on your door knocking as like, so wanky reformist and bourgeoisie.../

 

[A380]

/pure socialists having fights in phoneboxes with other pure socialists over the wording of the Fourth Internationals' policy on Tractor production be looking down on your door knocking as like, so wanky reformist and bourgeoisie.../

TBF that was one of my motivations…

 

[Serge Forward]

/pure socialists having fights in phoneboxes with other pure socialists over the wording of the Fourth Internationals' policy on Tractor production be looking down on your door knocking as like, so wanky reformist and bourgeoisie.../

Fuck the 4th International and the tractor they rode in on

 

[platinumsage]

Electoral Calculus agrees with you on both. Uxbridge going would still be a massive upset.

I disagree with Electoral Calculus and planetgeli - I'll give twenty quid to the server fund if the LibDems don't win mid-Beds, as long as someone reminds me.

 

[flypanam]

Even from a Tory point of view - what the fuck have they achieved since 2010 other than brexit? Wages lower, people are poorer, public services (esp NHS) shitter, Inflation is criplingly high, mortgate rates higher. At the end of their last stint in power the tories could boast that the people were better off, they had slain the evil unions, won the falklands war, people had been able to buy their council houses and they could sell a narrative of having "turned the country around" - sure it was all contestable and things like north sea oil had boosted the economy rather than their own policies, but it a credible narrative to sell to enough voters right up intill 1997.

The rich are richer and life has got harder and more authoritarian for the rest of us. Toryism working as it should I think.