The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[Sue]

I also fear we'll see another useless "left of Labour" unity project that'll be founded on poor politics, dodgy figureheads and will pointlessly occupy a bunch of time and energy before everyone falls out and gives up.

That at least is a dead cert.

It's gonna be grim.

And that.

 

[MickiQ]

Setting aside my suspicions there is no such person and the woman whose face we see on leaflets is actually an actress because she never seems to do anything in the HoC other than vote the party line.
My MP is Heather Wheeler who won in 2019 with 19000 but in the previous couple won with 12000. I actually live in the bluest bit of South Derbyshire but Labour did well in the local elections so I wonder if they might have
a chance in the GE this time. I have a postal vote so there isn't really any excuse for not sending it in.
Youngest Q who acquired the vote barely 6 months after the last GE has registered for both a home and a term-time vote (An Urb suggested this to me and I suggested it to her, I can't remember whose suggestion it was but she did it so thanks) and is positively itching to vote against them. Where she lives in term time though is solid Labour so I imagine she would like the GE to be during the summer whilst she's home.

 

[danny la rouge]

I think that will depend on the constituency - you have (if you don't mind me saying so) the luxury of getting either an SNP or Labour MP. I know you don't like either, but I think you'd like either a great deal more than you'd like a Tory - but you know that whatever else you'll get, you're not going to get a Tory, and I imagine a LibDem is almost as equally implausible.

I don't have that choice, I either vote labour, or I'll get a Tory (mine is a no mark who was sacked by Theresa May for pesting, and who has been earning £100k on the side every year) I can well see apathy being a thing in places where they simply weigh the not-a-tory vote, but in places where if you don't vote Labour or LibDem, you'll let the Tory back in, i doubt that so many will choose (quite legitimately...) to watch Netflix instead.

I fully respect the choice of people to vote tactically. I’ve done it myself on occasion. In fact, I think for most people it’s really the only way you can vote.

 

[Plumdaff]

I'm fortunate to live in a very safe Labour seat. I thought I'd probably vote Plaid, but they've been pretty shite under recent leadership. I'll probably very begrudgingly vote Plaid.

I'm more interested to see how short the honeymoon is for a Labour government that will gain power almost by default in what will undoubtedly be a weary, low turnout, low interest election and what might happen then, particularly given they've today ditched any pretence of being serious about a Green New Deal (one of the few things they were actually going to do differently from the Tories).

 

[chilango]

I do wonder about the argument about "If I don't vote X, I'll get/keep a Tory MP".

I had one until 2017, since then I've had a Labour one (who to my regret I actually voted for twice).

He's an inoffensive/ok constituency MP (largely I suspect because he was selected by a Labour Party that had no intention of winning the seat in 2017).

...but so what? Has anything changed? Do I feel better?

Nope. Not at all. Things have just kept getting shitter. A lot shitter.

Would having a Tory MP keep his seat made things even worse. Nope. I don't think so.

 

[chilango]

I'm fortunate to live in a very safe Labour seat. I thought I'd probably vote Plaid, but they've been pretty shite under recent leadership. I'll probably very begrudgingly vote Plaid.

I'm more interested to see how short the honeymoon is for a Labour government that will gain power almost by default in what will undoubtedly be a weary, low turnout, low interest election and what might happen then, particularly given they've today ditched any pretence of being serious about a Green New Deal (one of the few things they were actually going to do differently from the Tories).

There won't be any honeymoon.

There's not even the shallow hope that Blair managed to inspire. Things will carry on collapsing at rapid pace and the far-right will be on offensive from the off.

The BNP came out of - almost - nowhere within a few years of Blair getting in.

The far-right are in a much, much stronger - and more mainstream - position this time round.

The economy isn't going to get any better.

Climate crisis is well underway.

Culture wars are whipping up violent bigotry.

Starmer will get no public honeymoon and a media one only for as long he can keep a lid on things.

I genuinely think we're in the last days of so-called liberal democracy and we're entering a new phase of political history.

Sorry, bleak as fuck, I know...

 

[Plumdaff]

There won't be any honeymoon.

There's not even the shallow hope that Blair managed to inspire. Things will carry on collapsing at rapid pace and the far-right will be on offensive from the off.

The BNP came out of - almost - nowhere within a few years of Blair getting in.

The far-right are in a much, much stronger - and more mainstream - position this time round.

The economy isn't going to get any better.

Climate crisis is well underway.

Culture wars are whipping up violent bigotry.

Starmer will get no public honeymoon and a media one only for as long he can keep a lid on things.

I genuinely think we're in the last days of so-called liberal democracy and we're entering a new phase of political history.

Sorry, bleak as fuck, I know...

Sadly, I don't think this is unreasonable

 

[Elpenor]

I do wonder about the argument about "If I don't vote X, I'll get/keep a Tory MP".

I had one until 2017, since then I've had a Labour one (who to my regret I actually voted for twice).

He's an inoffensive/ok constituency MP (largely I suspect because he was selected by a Labour Party that had no intention of winning the seat in 2017).

...but so what? Has anything changed? Do I feel better?

Nope. Not at all. Things have just kept getting shitter. A lot shitter.

Would having a Tory MP keep his seat made things even worse. Nope. I don't think so.

There is an interesting experiment happening in Totnes - an attempt at a primary to establish who can challenge the 100 years of Tory dominance in that seat. Perhaps it’s a Lib Dem sleeper cell

Let's be clever and vote together

A fair & transparent way to choose one progressive candidate to unite behind at the next general election, and stop the Conservatives winning on a minority vote.

www.southdevonprimary.org

Not sure what the outcome will be if any - but it is at least acknowledging the challenge that FPTP poses to any form of progressive politics. They claim that their model can be applied to other constituencies.

 

[chilango]

Sadly, I don't think this is unreasonable

I want to be wrong. I just can't see it though.

 

[Bingoman]

I can see the greens holding Brighton I can also see them challenging in places like Bristol, Norwich and bury st Edmund's

I defo see the lib Dems get seats in the so called blue wall too

 

[The39thStep]

I think we need to be careful not to ellide mojo pixy 's "people with leftish leanings" with "the working class".

Sure but the same strategy applies. Impossible to predict at the moment but it'll be interesting to see what the turnout is

 

[The39thStep]

There won't be any honeymoon.

There's not even the shallow hope that Blair managed to inspire. Things will carry on collapsing at rapid pace and the far-right will be on offensive from the off.

The BNP came out of - almost - nowhere within a few years of Blair getting in.

The far-right are in a much, much stronger - and more mainstream - position this time round.

The economy isn't going to get any better.

Climate crisis is well underway.

Culture wars are whipping up violent bigotry.

Starmer will get no public honeymoon and a media one only for as long he can keep a lid on things.

I genuinely think we're in the last days of so-called liberal democracy and we're entering a new phase of political history.

Sorry, bleak as fuck, I know...

Gramsci meeting chilango

 

[chilango]

Gramsci meeting chilango

I did start wondering as I typed that response whether I'd forgotten to take my Sertraline last night

 

[chilango]

Sure but the same strategy applies. Impossible to predict at the moment but it'll be interesting to see what the turnout is

I dunno, we've seen enough examples in recent years of electorally significant chunks of the w/c finding someone else to vote for.

 

[The39thStep]

Not much better over here tbh. A lukewarm Socialist Party with an absolute majority has done eff all aside from a series of corruption scandals and is now embroiled in another one with the President threatening to call an election. The right wing neo libs are ahead in the polls licking their lips, the far right Chega are proposing to support them in a coalition, and the two left parties have just got new leaders and are struggling even though we have had and still strikes in health, education and railways.

 

[The39thStep]

I dunno, we've seen enough examples in recent years of electorally significant chunks of the w/c finding someone else to vote for.

Sure but attrition wears them out , what happens eventually is that after trying a few alternatives is that they just end up not voting. It'll be the same with these left leaners.

 

[chilango]

My gut is that there'll be reasonable turnout in '24 but that there'll be a big drop for the one after.

 

[philosophical]

Voter ID and boundary changes might play a part in making some predictions less certain.

 

[redsquirrel]

Brighton will be interesting, LDs did not stand the last few times which obviously worked for the Greens. But with a new candidate would they keep that pact?
Possible that some Tory leaning voters might vote tactically against Labour, as has happened in the Australian Green's favour a few times.

 

[Sasaferrato]

This is one of the variables though - low turnout. Voter apathy and even antipathy could skew results in a surprising way.

Btw, how is SNP's "air of moderate competence" looking these days?

The SNP have never been competent, and it is showing now big time.

 

[Bingoman]

Nadine Dorries will stand down with immediate effect and not at the General election

 

[danny la rouge]

The SNP have never been competent, and it is showing now big time.

They had a reputation for competence, though. Deserved or not. This was probably only in comparison, though. And in that regard I would just say two names: Douglas Ross and Anas Sarwar.

I’m not feeling inspired to use my vote.

 

[steveo87]

Idle speculation, you say...

 

[mojo pixy]

Idle speculation pt.B...

Labour look set to win, but due to a combination of historically low turnout, labour triumphalism and intense last-moment social media campaigning, the tories snatch a very slim majority (2/3 seats). There are riots. State of emergency is announced, curfews etc 'till this situation is resolved'.

There's a drama currently on C4 called 'the undeclared war' which illustrates this scenario quite nicely.

 

[Elpenor]

Idle speculation pt.B...

Labour look set to win, but due to a combination of historically low turnout, labour triumphalism and intense last-moment social media campaigning, the tories snatch a very slim majority (2/3 seats). There are riots. State of emergency is announced, curfews etc 'till this situation is resolved'.

There's a drama currently on C4 called 'the undeclared war' which illustrates this scenario quite nicely.

Better stop up on pasta and bog roll just in case the day before the election

 

[mojo pixy]

Idle speculation pt.C, Labour win massively and the country seems to lose its mind, till it becomes clear that everything is basically the same but with new, longer paperwork, more surveillance and a growing miasma of disappointment.

tbh this is barely even speculation so eh, apologies for that

 

[bluescreen]

This sounds mad but what with Dorries and Johnson quitting and rumours of more to follow... any chance Sunak will call a general instead of suffering the ignominy of two by-elections and ever dwindling support?
Especially if he has particular knowledge of worse things coming down the line, or even something he can capitalise on swiftly if deceptively?

Thought not. Even if there is some hitherto undisclosed scandal, disaster or PR opportunity, he doesn't seem to have the cojones to make such a bold move.

And it probably wouldn't make much difference anyway to what's coming.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I'm still not sure.

I'm not convinced anyone much is enthusiastic about 'voting for starmer'

Then there's the gerrymandering and voter suppression measures.

I can see there being an all out culture war campaign - maybe 'transgender people want to steal your brexit' or something like that

I feel more 1992-ish than 1997-ish at the moment.

Followed by an 'oh fuck, didn't we trash the place last night when we thought we were going to get voted out' moment the morning after when the tories sober up.

 

[philosophical]

I don’t know the rules but is it technically possible for Truss to put Johnson in the House of Lords with her resignation honours list, and somehow he could become Prime Minister from the upper chamber?

 

[danny la rouge]

I don’t know the rules but is it technically possible for Truss to put Johnson in the House of Lords with her resignation honours list, and somehow he could become Prime Minister from the upper chamber?

As I understand it, it is technically possible for a prime minister to be a Lord. By convention, all they need is to command the confidence of the majority of the Commons, not necessarily be elected as one. However, the constitutions of both the Labour and the Tory parties say their leader should be someone elected to the House of Commons. Given that realistically you need to be the leader of one or other of those parties to become PM, I don’t think it’s a goer.

(It’s some time since I was up on this stuff, so it’s possible that legislation has come in to say a PM has to be an MP, but I am not aware of it).