Spanish Political News

[DotCommunist]

If one austerity measure was reversed every time a centre-right politician in Spain said 'instability' over the past 24 hours all of Europe would be living under full communism.

2010 UK the magic word was mandate. I recall it dawning on me that they were saying it so often because they knew it was a flaky one.

 

[butchersapron]

Zionist filth

 

[J Ed]

Zionist filth

Wrong thread?

 

[butchersapron]

Wrong thread?

It's a shitty bob dylan/conspiraloon joke. Doesn't bode well for the week.

 

[Libertad]

Some developments this morning, nothing dramatic

(taken from Público and El País and TVE)

Rivera of Ciudadanos has said that PSOE would need to form a party with 11 parties which is something that would be bad for Spain (implicit here of course is his reconfirmation of the fact that they won't support a PSOE government) but he also said that he won't form a government with the PP either because 'nothing has changed in Spain' which is a convenient principle to take since a PP+Cs+others government is basically impossible. Instead he suggests that the best thing for Spain would be a minority PP government.

Interestingly the PP now seem to be pushing the line that more elections would be bad because they would be a cause of instability. If one austerity measure was reversed every time a centre-right politician in Spain said 'instability' over the past 24 hours all of Europe would be living under full communism. They have called for PSOE not to form a government with Podemos and to just let them govern.

How curious that Ciudadanos and PP have exactly the same message a day after the elections, it's almost as if Ciudadanos is a vehicle for sheepdogging disaffected right--wingers...

The ERC, leftist Catalan Nationalists, have said that they don't think that Podemos would ever allow a Catalan independence referendum which bodes poorly for their participation in a coalition government, something that would be essential for a PS + Podemos + Nationalists coalition.

César Luena the number 2 of the PSOE has said that the PSOE will oppose the PP forming a government. Expect lots of right-wing whining, as in Portugal.

Pablo Iglesias, well uh he tweeted a rap song late night, titled 'knocking on heavens door'

Good summary there. Sounds like positioning from the ERC obv. though I expect time is short and re-elections beckon.

 

[J Ed]

Pablo Iglesias is giving a press conference, here are the main points:

1) Podemos will vote against the formation of a PP government.
2) Iglesias stated how concerned he was by the fact that some in the PSOE seemed to favour a grand coalition with the PP.
3) A referendum in Catalonia will continue to be a 'red line' for Podemos in coalition negotiations (something PSOE opposes)
4) The electoral system which favours PP/PSOE needs to be reformed

 

[Favelado]

PSOE finished 4th in Madrid.

PP won 13 seats.
Podemos came 2nd with 8 seats (including 2 for Vallecas) and taking the centre of the city. Well done Malasaña types there.
C's got 7 seats.
PSOE just 6.

 

[J Ed]

Luena has repeated what he said previously, that PSOE will vote against the investiture of a PP government.

 

[Fedayn]

Pablo Iglesias is giving a press conference, here are the main points:

1) Podemos will vote against the formation of a PP government.
2) Iglesias stated how concerned he was by the fact that some in the PSOE seemed to favour a grand coalition with the PP.
3) A referendum in Catalonia will continue to be a 'red line' for Podemos in coalition negotiations (something PSOE opposes)
4) The electoral system which favours PP/PSOE needs to be reformed

Todays Guardian has an article effectively calling for what would be a grand(er) coalition. They call for an all paty coalition but full in the knowledge that Podemos will oppose a PP government and that PP/PSOE are happy with a referendum on Catalunya. Effectively they want a PP/PSOE government but can't stomach to honesty neded for that headline.

 

[Coolfonz]

The PP - it was their worst ever result at a gen election - will get first dibs at forming a government. But they can't.

So, like Portugal can the left nats, PSOE and Podemos form a govt? Even with IU and their 2 seats. Very risky if another recession (yes I know I keep saying this sorry) comes along.

If there are new elections who will get squeezed? I fancy C's would a little by PP, a few voters wd float off back to PP to combat the red peril.

I also feel PSOE could get a bit hit. That was also their worst ever showing i believe.

Yours, David Dimblby

 

[J Ed]

Some updates

Rivera of Ciudadanos has proposed a PP-PSOE-Ciudadanos pact on the basis that it is necessary to ensure stability and to protect Spain from 'populism' and 'separatism'.

The knives seem to be out for Sánchez's leadership of PSOE, as well as his leadership being put in doubt a prominent PSOE politician is calling for him not to form a coalition with the PP or Podemos.

 

[Favelado]

Why does Rivera imagine C's are necessary in a grand coalition scenario?

I can understand the straw-clutching given the impotence of their position, but it doesn't mean it makes sense.

 

[J Ed]

Why does Rivera imagine C's are necessary in a grand coalition scenario?

Well, it would be a demonstration of a united ruling class solidarity against the Spanish working-class I suppose.

 

[J Ed]

Sánchez has repeated today that he has no intention of supporting the investiture of another PP government under any leader after a 20 minute meeting with Rajoy. He followed that by saying he would try to form a 'government of change' whatever that means adding that more elections would be a last resort.

 

[Favelado]

Sánchez has repeated today that he has no intention of supporting the investiture of another PP government under any leader after a 20 minute meeting with Rajoy. He followed that by saying he would try to form a 'government of change' whatever that means adding that more elections would be a last resort.

SOE would be crazy to go for a grand coalition. There's an outside chance it would finish the party, so you wouldn't want to be entertaining that possibility. I think Podemos's core message is utterly compromised if they work with C's, or makes too many concessions to Sánchez, so to me it points to further elections.

J Ed Am I underestimating what the respective voters of each party will put up with? Do you think Podemos supporters want a taste of power, or they want to stick it to the casta? What's more important?

 

[J Ed]

J Ed Am I underestimating what the respective voters of each party will put up with? Do you think Podemos supporters want a taste of power, or they want to stick it to the casta? What's more important?

You would think that it would irreparably damage their respective 'brands', wouldn't you?

 

[Favelado]

You would think that it would irreparably damage their respective 'brands', wouldn't you?

They have to weigh up this potential damage against deciding to stick or twist on their election polling. Podemos can be considered the "winners" of the election in the sense that they outperformed expectations. It wouldn't be easy to choose between making a pact you're not keen on and possibly slipping back a few points in a second election.

 

[J Ed]

Podemos' conditions for forming a coalition with PSOE:

An emergency law to rescue suffering Spanish families which includes an end to evictions, a simplification of debt cancellation, a guarantee of accommodation for victims of domestic violence, an end to utility companies cutting off access to homes, an end to payments for prescriptions
A referendum on Catalan independence

 

[J Ed]

Iglesias and Rajoy had a long meeting today, interestingly much longer than the one between Sánchez and Rajoy. I don't know whether either Iglesias or Rajoy or both have deliberately cultivated this impression but their interactions make me think that the two probably don't get on that badly as individuals. Watching the press conference following the meeting the way that Iglesias is attacking the PSOE makes me think that a coalition including PSOE and Podemos is increasingly unlikely.

 

[Brainaddict]

Podemos' conditions for forming a coalition with PSOE:

An emergency law to rescue suffering Spanish families which includes an end to evictions, a simplification of debt cancellation, a guarantee of accommodation for victims of domestic violence, an end to utility companies cutting off access to homes, an end to payments for prescriptions
A referendum on Catalan independence

Does it include a change to mortgage law so that people aren't liable for all the debt of repossessed properties? Would be strange if they didn't demand that, no?

 

[J Ed]

Does it include a change to mortgage law so that people aren't liable for all the debt of repossessed properties? Would be strange if they didn't demand that, no?

Yes, the simplification and restructuring of mortgage debt (assuming that the repossessed property is not a second, third etc home) for unemployed people is explicitly mentioned though I cannot find any detailed explanations of how this would be implemented.

 

[Brainaddict]

Yes, the simplification and restructuring of mortgage debt (assuming that the repossessed property is not a second, third etc home) for unemployed people is explicitly mentioned though I cannot find any detailed explanations of the details of how this would be implemented.

Why just for unemployed people I wonder? My understanding is that Spanish mortgage law is out of step with most other countries in not counting the value of the repossesed property as part of the debt repayment.

 

[J Ed]

Why just for unemployed people I wonder? My understanding is that Spanish mortgage law is out of step with most other countries in not counting the value of the repossesed property as part of the debt repayment.

My guess would be that Podemos believe that by limiting the scope of the measure that PSOE are more likely to accept it.

 

[Coolfonz]

PSOE will effectively block a `left` coalition because Podemos want to allow a referendum on Catalan independence.
How lame. Afaics Sanchez is getting a hard time, looking weak, worst ever election result etc...

 

[J Ed]

Still no government or any sign of it soon.

Rajoy seems to be trying to pressure PSOE politicians who are in favour of a PPSOE coalition to accept it on the basis that new elections might favour Podemos at the expense of the PSOE especially if Podemos enter an electoral pact with IU.

 

[Favelado]

It has to be new elections surely. PSOE and Podemos are fucked if they cross their respective red lines.

 

[J Ed]

Proyección Redondo Asociados para generales: Suben PP y Podemos.

Projections that Podemos would overtake PSOE in both the popular vote and in number of seats in parliament if elections were held now, though this is contingent on an electoral pact with Izquierda Unida. The Partido Popular would also increase its share of the vote but not enough to secure an overall majority, seems like a lot of that increase would come from people who voted Ciudadanos in December.

 

[Favelado]

Proyección Redondo Asociados para generales: Suben PP y Podemos.

Projections that Podemos would overtake PSOE in both the popular vote and in number of seats in parliament if elections were held now, though this is contingent on an electoral pact with Izquierda Unida. The Partido Popular would also increase its share of the vote but not enough to secure an overall majority, seems like a lot of that increase would come from people who voted Ciudadanos in December.

That makes perfect sense. Fewer people are going to be interested in voting for the Deflated Souffle Party. Those numbers don't seem to deliver an overall majority either though.

 

[J Ed]

This may be of interest to those who read Spanish La formación de Podemos: Sudamérica, Populismo Postcolonial y Hegemonía Flexible

Going to take a look later tonight after work.

 

[Coolfonz]

Proyección Redondo Asociados para generales: Suben PP y Podemos.

Projections that Podemos would overtake PSOE in both the popular vote and in number of seats in parliament if elections were held now, though this is contingent on an electoral pact with Izquierda Unida. The Partido Popular would also increase its share of the vote but not enough to secure an overall majority, seems like a lot of that increase would come from people who voted Ciudadanos in December.

See, I told you, post #940
Yours DD