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ska invita said:
Anyone have any insight into how the governing Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) is doing in power these days?
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useful piece here
www.morningstaronline.co.uk

Spain’s left government stumbles at the polls

The coalition government that included the left-wing Podemos looks to be over after local elections — but as the alternative to the hard-right Vox party, the PSOE may be able to go it alone, writes ALAN McGUIRE
www.morningstaronline.co.uk www.morningstaronline.co.uk
infighting and fracture basically
 
I was actually going to start a thread but may as well leave it here.

Spanish General Election, July 23rd 2023.

This is Sanchez (PM) taking a massive gamble (or simply throwing his hands in the air, not sure which). The PSOE just got fairly slaughtered in the municipals. So he appears to have given the Left very little time to sort itself out (hello Sumar and Podemos), and is asking the country "Do you really want the extreme right (Vox) as kingmakers?"

This could seriously backfire. The PP have a 6-8% poll lead, and Vox are polling at 15%.

Although the PP’s candidates won in most Spanish cities on Sunday, they largely failed to secure outright majorities. Gaining control of city halls across the country will require the center-right party to enter into coalitions or governing pacts with the far-right Vox party.

By calling snap elections, Sánchez is hoping to seize upon those concerns and argue that voting for the PP opens the door to a far-right governing coalition at the national level in Spain, an outcome that’s unlikely to sit well with centrists.
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It's a hell of a gamble. My Barcelona brethren tell me a lot will depend on getting the Left out to actually vote, and in particular the young Left. There has been recent movement showing young people engaging more with the system but even then only 1 in 3 are estimated to vote. Add in the factors of 'can I really be arsed to vote in this heat' and the fact Spain basically goes on holiday on that weekend and it's a very odd piece of timing.

Apparently Portugal did something similar last time? The39thStep ? And it worked for them. But Portugal is very much not Spain.

It looks like a crazy gamble to me.
 
planetgeli said:
I was actually going to start a thread but may as well leave it here.

Spanish General Election, July 23rd 2023.

This is Sanchez (PM) taking a massive gamble (or simply throwing his hands in the air, not sure which). The PSOE just got fairly slaughtered in the municipals. So he appears to have given the Left very little time to sort itself out (hello Sumar and Podemos), and is asking the country "Do you really want the extreme right (Vox) as kingmakers?"

This could seriously backfire. The PP have a 6-8% poll lead, and Vox are polling at 15%.



It's a hell of a gamble. My Barcelona brethren tell me a lot will depend on getting the Left out to actually vote, and in particular the young Left. There has been recent movement showing young people engaging more with the system but even then only 1 in 3 are estimated to vote. Add in the factors of 'can I really be arsed to vote in this heat' and the fact Spain basically goes on holiday on that weekend and it's a very odd piece of timing.

Apparently Portugal did something similar last time? The39thStep ? And it worked for them. But Portugal is very much not Spain.

It looks like a crazy gamble to me.
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Chega ( the Portuguese Vox) has never been kingmaker . It wants to be and keeps offering itself to the PSD ( neo-libs) but the PSD are looking elsewhere .

Two elections ago the Socialist Party here entered into an agreement with Left Bloc and Communist Party on the basis of anti austerity. The ‘contraption’ had some minor gains in legislation but by and large the SP were the driving force and benefactor . Last election the SP went for a majority and got it , the LB and PCP vote collapsed as voters went to the SP to stop the PSD . The SP’s outright majority has done little to address inflation it’s zero vat on 30 odd household items being the peak of its ambition , passed some tepid legislation on housing and has spent more time sacking ministers and being embroiled in a scandal over the national airline TAP in which is pays off the director illegally and then gives them a position in government . The PSD are ahead in the polls , Chega seems to be holding up and the left struggling despite or because both parties now have new leadership.
 
A few days ago there was an opinion poll reported in El País which indicated that the union of Podemos with assorted other leftist factions in Sumar, led by Yolanda Díaz, could make an important difference. In a nutshell, if Podemos went into the election separate from Sumar, the result would be a majority of seats in the Congress for PP + VOX, but if the left went into the election united in Sumar, PP + VOX would (by a narrow margin) be denied an overall majority. The latter scenario could make it possible for Sánchez to cobble together agreements with lots of other parties, including proponents of Basque, Galician and Catalan independence, and continue in government, probably in coalition with Sumar.

And that, though not great, is pretty much the best that people on the left - whether sane social democrats, stubborn communists or followers of bonkers ideological fashion - can reasonably hope for at the moment.

A deal has now been done to bring Podemos into Sumar. However, the row continues.

Yolanda Díaz has managed to exclude a couple of prominent Podemos figures from any realistic chance of getting a seat in Congress. The most notable case is Irene Montero, the Minister for Equality. Montero's great achievements in government are: (1) a declare-your-own-legal-sex law, rather like Nicola Sturgeon's (or even worse), and (2) a sensible-sounding law intended to reinforce the principle of consent in sexual relations ('Only yes is yes'). The trouble with the law was that it was so incompetently drafted that it resulted in about a thousand convicted rapists and other sexual offenders having their sentences reduced! Inevitably, Montero is despised by many and is very unpopular with, among others, long-standing PSOE feminists.

Yolanda Díaz, as Minister of Labour, has rather better achievements in government: (1) significant improvements in the level of the minimum wage and (2) a change in employment law that has given people who had to get by on temp contracts a little bit more job security. Díaz is relatively popular - perhaps still the most popular member of the government, beating Sánchez in the approval ratings.

Díaz rightly sees Montero as a liability.

In the battle to form Sumar, Díaz has won. Montero has lost. Podemos, though now on board with Sumar, won't shut up about Irene Montero's exclusion. This very public disunity is not going to help Sumar.

Is it still true that Sumar could do well enough to deny PP + VOX an overall majority? My guess is that if resentful Podemos people continue protesting against Díaz, the obvious disunity will depress the vote for Sumar and we will end up with a PP-VOX coalition government.
 
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They left have no chance in Spain they are fucked.

Best Sanchez can hope for is another minority government. The guy is a tool.
 
Just watching the election results. As predicted the right have done better but also not too bad a showing from the left. Maybe better than expected.

As it stands I dont know who can form a government. Few of the smaller parties would ally with Vox and the PP, and the ones that would PNV and Coalición Canarias probs wouldnt get them to a 176 seat majority.

So hung parliament or another left coalition trying to keep the various regional nationalists happy.
 
Spin now seems to be it's not as bad as feared, even Sumar seem to have run Vox close in terms of seats. Perhaps it was the best he could have hoped for though as said, does seem very odd timing.
 
Some positive outcomes: Vox lose 600,000 votes and 19 deputies. PSOE share of the vote at 31,70% is their highest since 2008, Sumar performed well with 31 seats. Portuguese news are saying that PP will be asked to try and form a government but theoretically the left and the separatists have a one vote majority if they can agree on a platform.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Seems calling a snap election following awful local election results isn't such a smart move. :facepalm:
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Actually I'd say Sanchez took a gamble and pulled it off. PSOE did badly in recent local elections. This election he made it do you want heir to Franco party the Vox party holding government posts. Rolling back social reforms that took place post Franco.

I see that the answer is no from the Spanish. Bucked the trend for hard right parties gaining ground in Europe. A positive outcome.

It may lead to impasse. I can't see PSOE wanting to make up enough seats by doing deal with separatist parties. That would not go down well in rest of Spain.
 
JimW said:
Spin now seems to be it's not as bad as feared, even Sumar seem to have run Vox close in terms of seats. Perhaps it was the best he could have hoped for though as said, does seem very odd timing.
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Considering some of the polling over the last few months I'd say that the result from the PSOE is better than might have predicted at one time and Sanchez decision was if not a success, not a total failure.
 
Gramsci said:
Actually I'd say Sanchez took a gamble and pulled it off. PSOE did badly in recent local elections. This election he made it do you want heir to Franco party the Vox party holding government posts. Rolling back social reforms that took place post Franco.

I see that the answer is no from the Spanish. Bucked the trend for hard right parties gaining ground in Europe. A positive outcome.

It may lead to impasse. I can't see PSOE wanting to make up enough seats by doing deal with separatist parties. That would not go down well in rest of Spain.
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Yeah maybe. Let's hope so. Seems the most likely result may be another election later this year, so we'll have to wait until after that to see if the gamble worked.
 
On economics Vox and PP aren't that different. The price that Vox would want to jointly govern with PP is posts where they could pursue their reactionary social agenda.
 
Gramsci said:
On economics Vox and PP aren't that different. The price that Vox would want to jointly govern with PP is posts where they could pursue their reactionary social agenda.
Click to expand...
Looking at the numbers, although they're only just short, that's probably a non-starter. All the separatists will strongly oppose, so they can't get up to 176. Looking at all the small parties, I only see one joining them - the Navarrese People's Union. So that makes 170. Don't see how they get above that.
 
redsquirrel said:
Considering some of the polling over the last few months I'd say that the result from the PSOE is better than might have predicted at one time and Sanchez decision was if not a success, not a total failure.
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It's being viewed bt the left over here as some sort of success due to the collapse of the VOX vote. Chega, the right wing populists here, very much saw a good performance from Vox as being a potential bonus for them. Ventura was in Spain and intended to be on the Vox post victory platform but as soon as the losses were known declined to stand near Abascal.

The key issues highlighted in the polls in Spain were unemployment, inflation and wages. Immigration and identity politics came much further down. The PSOE has had some success with employment, and there has been some strengthening of workers' rights ( mainly promoted by Podemos and Yolanda Díaz) but with wages and job quality it's been the usual tepid display by socialist parties in southern Europe. The separatists /autonomists desp[ite retaining the bargaining chip for a PSOE/ Sumar government overall had mixed results, in particular, the Left Republicans in Catalan and CUP losing votes but the Basque Bildu gaining seats.
 
Interesting

The right obtains its best results in the poorest municipalities (thanks to Vox) and the most well-off (thanks to the PP). The PSOE obtains its best scores in the poorest municipalities, Sumar in the well-to-do municipalities without being the richest.

key ( I think) red= PSOE pink=Sumar green = Vox blue=PP

 
Decent summary of the situation in the Graun.

What happened in Spain’s snap general election?

I had misunderstood the process, thinking that they needed 176 to win. But there are two rounds of voting and in the second round, a simple majority is enough. So Sánchez can potentially cobble together 172 votes and get Junts to abstain and get over the line. PP+Vox+Navarre nutter = 170, so it's incredibly close.

It would appear that an extremely wobbly PSOE-led coalition or another election are the only realistic outcomes. I don't trust nationalists, though. They can prefer short-term failure over short-term success - an antagonistic central government that includes Vox might be just what the likes of Junts would secretly like to happen.
 
Possible change reported in the Portuguese media. Due to some complicated overseas vote it looks like the PP actually gain a seat at the expense of PSOE in Madrid .

"According to the first results of the scrutiny of the votes of residents abroad, the so-called CERA vote, and while waiting for the final results in other provincial councils, the PP would have achieved the last place of the PSOE for Madrid, which was attributed to the former socialist mayor from Alcalá de Henares.

With this new seat, the PP would get 137 deputies and the PSOE would drop to 121.

As a result, the bloc that could approve the investiture of the president of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo - Vox (33), UPN (1) and CC (1) - would reach 172 seats, compared to the 171 of the bloc of socialists of Sánchez with Sumar ( 31), ERC (7), EH Bildu (6), PNV (5) and BNG (1).

According to this arithmetic, the president of the current government would need the explicit support of the Junts to obtain the investiture, since the abstention of the seven Catalan independence deputies would not be enough."

RTP News
 
On a more serious note, it seems that the ideological battle between history based on facts and evidence and history as glorious national mythology is not unique to the UK. There is a lot of debate about "The Reconquest" (a nineteenth century "explanation" of the period 711 to 1492, in which what is now Spain very slowly drove out its muslim rulers).

english.elpais.com

The Spanish Reconquest and the Battle of Covadonga: When myths contaminate history

In several recent essays historians discuss the founding milestones of Spanish nationalism, the traditional banner of conservative politicians, around the struggle for Al-Andalus
english.elpais.com english.elpais.com
 
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