Spanish Political News
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Riklet
procrastinación
Im hoping Im wrong tho. The PP will definitely lose ground, and maybe a lot. If they and C's do worse than I kinda expect, it may definitely leave Podemos and the nationalists with more power.
Risky biz for the 'SOE, however. They might just prefer to wait it out and let the PP have another 5 years than be forced into that kind of coalition.
Risky biz for the 'SOE, however. They might just prefer to wait it out and let the PP have another 5 years than be forced into that kind of coalition.
J Ed
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All the polling over the past week and a bit has shown an upward trajectory for Podemos.
Then again the PP have been replicating Cameron's 'a vote for Labour is a vote for a Labour + SNP coalition' style rhetoric pretty extensively and that worked very well so maybe it will work in Spain too. I hope not.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
they've the recent examples of PASOK and our own lib dems to look at to see what happens to parties who go into coalition with vermin. Not sure if that maps onto spanish politics really but none the less would give pause for thought surely
J Ed
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I can't see an equivalent of the ND/Pasok coalition. The PP has made some favourable noises about it but nothing from the PSOE, I just can't see it happening it would be more suicidal for the PSOE than it was even for PASOK.
Parties say a lot about coalitions before the voting, and do things differently after. PP may be the biggest party, but who is really going to prop them up if their vote goes from 40pc- 26pc. It's incredibly risky, see the Liberals in the UK. It will depend on percentages. If Ciudadanos don't do so well - and come fourth - they might be happy to accept a `coalition of the losers`
I still say:
1. Podemos isn't just about Spain over the next 4/5 years, it's about the tentative birth of a neo-left in the EU. One that has been coming since 1997-2001 movements. It has to be seen as a long game. If they score 25pc, or 15pc. Either way it's a long game.
2. The next international recession - even a relatively mild one - is going to gut the remainder of the Spanish economy. Other southern European economies as well. Holding power when that happens will be very difficult for incumbents, beware.
That said: Si se puede!! Si se puede!!
I still say:
1. Podemos isn't just about Spain over the next 4/5 years, it's about the tentative birth of a neo-left in the EU. One that has been coming since 1997-2001 movements. It has to be seen as a long game. If they score 25pc, or 15pc. Either way it's a long game.
2. The next international recession - even a relatively mild one - is going to gut the remainder of the Spanish economy. Other southern European economies as well. Holding power when that happens will be very difficult for incumbents, beware.
That said: Si se puede!! Si se puede!!
Threshers_Flail
Well-Known Member
1. Podemos isn't just about Spain over the next 4/5 years, it's about the tentative birth of a neo-left in the EU. One that has been coming since 1997-2001 movements. It has to be seen as a long game. If they score 25pc, or 15pc. Either way it's a long game.
2. The next international recession - even a relatively mild one - is going to gut the remainder of the Spanish economy. Other southern European economies as well. Holding power when that happens will be very difficult for incumbents, beware.
That said: Si se puede!! Si se puede!!
Two good points. For Podemos to (reportedly) be on the cusp of second place despite the mini civil war over the party's centralization, constant batshit media attacks and disillusioned support is hardly a mark of failure. Replacing PSOE as the main party of opposition may be the best position to be in if another recession bites.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
can we have trans for the tweets pls thankyou
J Ed
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Ashcroft should put me on the payroll
J Ed
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Según sondeos a pie de urna, Podemos estaba infraestimado por las encuestas, Ciudadanos sobreestimado = according to exit polls Podemos were underestimated in the polling, Ciudadanos were overestimated
Unidad Popular conseguiría entre 2 y 4 escaños; UPyD se quedaría fuera = Unidad Popular will get between 2 and 4 seats, UPyD won't get any
Favelado
J'adore South Shore
Woah. Slow down there.
J Ed
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Spoil sport
One of the many interesting outcomes of this result is that one of Podemos' conditions for forming a coalition is a referendum on independence in Catalonia
J Ed
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The more people saw of them the more they disliked them lol
J Ed
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The interesting thing here is that I think we will get to see what the Tories would have done if Labour and the SNP had a parliamentary majority but without either being the biggest party
Favelado
J'adore South Shore
Yes, there are shades of that. It had occurred to me. Who gets to form a government? The coalition with the most seats, or do the incumbents get first dibs or something like that?
Or is it first to get their tanks out in Valencia a la Tejero?
e2a JHE would be good to answer this one.
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brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Favelado
J'adore South Shore
Would like to see district by district voting for Madrid. Podemos will be polling 45%ish here in Puente de Vallecas and probably got less than 10 votes in the whole of Barrio Salamanca. Also interesting to see how Podemos/PP, PP/C's, PSOE/C's,Podemos/PSOE swings work out.
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