Spanish Political News

[Libertad]

What do Spainwatchers think the effects (if any) will be of the PS+BE+PCP coalition in Portugal on the election in December in Spain?

Silva ?

 

[Favelado]

What do Spainwatchers think the effects (if any) will be of the PS+BE+PCP coalition in Portugal on the election in December in Spain?

None at all. Not on the radar here.

 

[Silva]

It's a pretty big deal internally, particularly since, as we say here, "the varnish cracked" on some of the right that were pushing for fascistic measures to keep the pro-austerity right on power, but on the greater view of things, we join a bunch of other European countries where the same thing happens, so I don't expect any cross-over over the border. A SYRIZA-style Left Bloc win could have some impact, but for all purposes, the current situation is an anti-austerity third-way party backed by the left, hardly the insane "communist tanks rolling down Lisbon" the right-wing press is making it up to be (yes, really). Plus, regional politics, despite the usual tensions of north vs south, interior vs coast, small cities vs big cities etc don't play much of a hand here.

 

[J Ed]

Metroscopia coloca empatados a PP, PSOE y Ciudadanos a tres semanas del 20-D

PP 22.7%
PSOE 22.5%
Ciudadanos 22.6%
Podemos 17.1%
Izquierda Unida 5.2%

 

[Favelado]

That C's vote must be soft. I reckon they'll come in at 18% or so.

 

[J Ed]

That C's vote must be soft. I reckon they'll come in at 18% or so.

I don't get why Albert Rivera is so popular, he seems obnoxious and swarmy to me.

 

[JHE]

Two polls published this morning:

Sigma 2 (seats in brackets):
PP: 27.1% (111-115)
Ciudadanos: 23.0% (82-84)
PSOE: 20.2% (78-79)
Podemos: 16.2% (43-45)
United Left: 3.8% (3-5)

GAD3:
PP: 28.3%
PSOE: 23.1%
Ciudadanos: 17.4%
Podemos: 14.9%
United Left: 4.0%


Why?
In El Mundo, which publishes the Sigma 2 results, there is also, in another part of the poll findings, a clue to why, with unemployment still horribly high (about 21%) and recognised by the majority as the most serious problem facing Spain, so many people are willing to vote for the right-wing parties. In a nutshell, few people believe that the left parties will be best for job creation. PP and Ciudadanos have more credibility on the subject.

(It seems to me that the United Left has the best policy on job creation, but it also seems that in thinking that I'm in a small, and perhaps old-fashioned, minority.)


Four-way debate this evening:
This evening at 9pm (8pm GMT) El País is hosting a debate between the four main parties. PSOE, Ciudadanos and Podemos will be represented by their candidates for PM: Sánchez, Rivera and Iglesias. Rajoy is not taking part. PP are sending the Deputy PM, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, instead. I suppose Mr Rajoy is too busy trimming his beard or texting his old chum Luis Bárcenas. The debate can be watched live on the El País website. It's billed to last an hour and a half.

I hope that Sáenz de Santamaría is pushed on the question of what the government plans to do in response to the French request for military help. Does Rajoy intend to send more troops to Mali or to do something in Syria or Iraq or not? Rajoy deserves to be given a hard time over his plan to say nothing about his intentions until after the election. Since he won't be there this evening, his deputy should be given a hard time. I don't know if PSOE wants to do that, but both Ciudadanos (gung ho: evil must be militarily opposed) and Podemos (decide with your head, not your stomach: cut off IS funding, don't go to war) should be able to give the question the attention it deserves. Will they choose to do so? Don't know. We'll see.

 

[J Ed]

Esperanza Aguirre casts doubt on the idea that Francoism was imposed by force. Good god she is so thick.

 

[Favelado]

"Socialists try and explain the Civil War as good guys against bad guys". Yes, yes they do Espe.

 

[J Ed]

Anyone else watching the debate?

 

[poului]

Anyone else watching the debate?

I caught the end. Opinion polls suggest a victory for Iglesias.

 

[J Ed]

New polling

Podemos remonta en los sondeos al consolidar más de 4 millones de votos y C's supera al PSOE con 5,3 millones

Depressing reading on the whole. Slight increase for Podemos but still not great considering where they were, Ciudadanos now equal with PSOE.

 

[Favelado]

New polling

Podemos remonta en los sondeos al consolidar más de 4 millones de votos y C's supera al PSOE con 5,3 millones

Depressing reading on the whole. Slight increase for Podemos but still not great considering where they were, Ciudadanos now equal with PSOE.

PP's core is loyal beyond belief. Think about everything they've done and the sheer brazenness of their corruption and they'll still end up being the biggest party. Politicians will learn from this that they should just carry on pilfering. Why change?

 

[JHE]

The Taliban have attacked the Spanish Embassy in Kabul. It was a suicide attack, apparently, using a car bomb. At least one Spanish police office is injured.

Rajoy is expected to speak about it this evening. Quite likely he'll have nothing new or interesting to say.

Will this revive debate about Spain's military involvement in Afghanistan, Mali or elsewhere? If so, what will the political effects be? Perhaps none.

A week or two ago I saw results of a poll on whether Spain should be further involved in military action against IS. A majority - about 55%, IIRC - were against. Of the most important four parties, only Podemos and its allies are clearly against military action.

 

[J Ed]

Finalmente, gracias a dios some goodish news

(second graph shows seat projections)

Podemos vote share increased here, same with PSOE and Ciudadanos in fourth. Of course this doesn't mean that we won't see a probable right-wing coalition

 

[J Ed]

As an aside here is a neat little resource from El País, election maps from all of Spain's elections since 1977. I had completely forgotten that Manuel Fraga was the Partido Popular's candidate in 1982 and 1986 what a shitty little bunch of fascists they are.

 

[Favelado]

As an aside here is a neat little resource from El País, election maps from all of Spain's elections since 1977. I had completely forgotten that Manuel Fraga was the Partido Popular's candidate in 1982 and 1986 what a shitty little bunch of fascists they are.

Fraga co-founded PP. It's just a dead straight line from Francoists to PP. Disgusting but as I think I've said before, the best thing about PP is that it's a broad enough church to encompass most of the right. There's no out-and-out fash party polling ten percent because they suck up all of the hard right vote. It means they're cunts but it might just be better this way. That depends if I'm over or underestimating a section of the Spanish populace's desire for such a far-right party to exist. From some of the insanely racist rhetoric I've heard from some old people, and por supuesto taxi drivers (you can rely on them in any city around the world can't you?), it's always struck me that we could have some scary neo-Falange party with a decent support base, if it wasn't for Aguirre and co.

 

[Favelado]

Worth posting to say what a brilliant job Ahora Madrid are doing of running the city council in my opinion. Cleaned up the filthy streets, cut the deficit (take that conservatives), cut the cost of season tickets for young people and free travelcards for the unemployed amongst a host of other policies that have made me really proud to live in the city. Manuela is wonderful.

 

[J Ed]

It's starting to look like a trend now

 

[Favelado]

Given the amount of coverage C's have had, and that they haven't committed any gaffes, I'm surprised. What's caused that? The polls have been all over the place for months. Election day might throw up more surprises.

 

[J Ed]

Given the amount of coverage C's have had, and that they haven't committed any gaffes, I'm surprised. What's caused that? The polls have been all over the place for months. Election day might throw up more surprises.

All I want for Christmas is a Podemos + IU coalition...

 

[Favelado]

If I had to take a guess I'd go with quite a few voters running back to PP/PSOE in the final days before polling. Podemos supporters scared of a PP victory voting for PSOE especially. I guess C's voters can stick with their party to some extent though, seeing as they're voting for a right-wing coalition anyway.

It's been annoying to see the press in the UK/US describe Ciudadanos as a "centre" party. Suppose it makes sense to them.

 

[DotCommunist]

am I right to say the Ciudadanos are liberals splitting the left vote? or is it more complex than that

 

[Favelado]

am I right to say the Ciudadanos are liberals splitting the left vote? or is it more complex than that

They are taking some votes from all of Podemos, PP and PSOE I'd say. They're socially liberal, economically right-wing.

They're soaking up some of Podemos's share from people who always thought Iglesias and co. were too smelly but wanted to protest at the corrupt system. They're getting right-wing votes from the younger posh who like rampant capitalism but would also like to smoke a joint and have their tie undone on dress-down Fridays. And they're getting some of PSOE's vote from people who see them as similar to the Socialists but less tainted by corruption. I'm less sure about the last of those three though.

Their vote share makes sense if you see it on drawing on those three big pools, but it's fundamentally soft. They could poll anything from 12-23% on election day, depending on how much of that voter intention sticks.

 

[Favelado]

Someone has punched Presidente Rajoy in the face as he was on a campaign walkabout. As the perpetrator is only 17, I believe that means he can't be prosecuted.

vid here.

Rajoy, agredido por un joven durante un paseo electoral en Pontevedra

 

[J Ed]

Someone has punched Presidente Rajoy in the face as he was on a campaign walkabout. As the perpetrator is only 17, I believe that means he can't be prosecuted.

Someone buy that lad una caña

 

[J Ed]

Video here if you scroll down Un menor propina un fuerte puñetazo a Mariano Rajoy en Pontevedra

 

[Favelado]

Rajoy took the punch quite well. I imagined he'd go down like a sack of shit.

 

[J Ed]

Rajoy took the punch quite well. I imagined he'd go down like a sack of shit.

I wonder how many votes are in him getting a smack and in him taking it pretty well, probably a few

 

[J Ed]

They're getting right-wing votes from the younger posh who like rampant capitalism but would also like to smoke a joint and have their tie undone on dress-down Fridays.