Operation pillar of cloud. Israeli assault on Gaza
- Thread starter dylans
- Start date
Buckaroo
Donkey piss and tractors
It doesn't matter what the Hamas guy or the 'Palestinian faction' guy says. This particular diplomatic effort will end with the biggest ever assault on the Gaza strip. It's not rocket science.
Sadly it might well come back again to rocket science.
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Indeed.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Am I missing something here?On the face of it the terms look favourable to the Palestinians - no more targeted assassinations, also the possibility of border crossings being reopened some of which have been shut for years......
E2A
Fascinating isnt it? It is quite possible that a game has been played here which is hard for us to fully appreciate due to stuff going on in private. I suppose there are a range of possibilities, including the US having decided to slightly shift its stance in relation to Gaza and Hamas, perhaps even before any of this latest violence began. Or, as I've hinted at since this started, its got to do with the UN bid and sidelining that stuff. Given the number of other regional powers taking an interest, from Egypt to Turkey and Qatar, any number of deals and bargains may have been part of the mix. But I think I should wait a good while before bothering to explore any of this further.
Buckaroo
Donkey piss and tractors
Netanyahu has played a bad hand, Mossad ridiculed plans to attack Iran, bringing a 'bomb' to the UN stupid and he backed the wrong man in the U.S. They are desperate for legitimacy, elections in January.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Oh that. Buckaroo lacks optimism, and although I would be an idiot to confidently proclaim that the ceasefire will hold firm, the last week should teach us once again not to let fears overwhelm all other possibilities when making predictions. (eg ground operation)
The more I read up about this the more I am convinced that this attack on Gaza was electoral posturing by Netanyahu, being done to compensate for not being able to bomb Iran as a result of Obama's re-election. I can't think what advantage of any kind this last round of shelling has given Israel, other than to placate right-wing criticism of Netanyahu for being soft and not attacking Iran.
The terms of the ceasefire are interesting, but allowing border crossings to be opened is not unusual. There's been a cycle underway for quite some time of Gaza's infastructure being attacked, then they open the borders to things like cement and building materials and let them rebuild a while, then when it's all rebuilt a few years later Israel cites how Hamas has "built it's capability" and uses it as a pretext to bomb them again. Usually to co-incide with elections.
This process is an ongoing part of a larger policy intended to both drive as much of the Palestinian population out of the area as possible, by reducing places like Gaza and areas near settlements on the West Bank to a state of dependence and poverty. The UN has estimated that by 2020 Gaza will be practically uninhabitable, and there are sections of the West Bank under similar threat. The purpose is to force as many of the population of Palestine as possible, which is very young on average btw, away into neighbouring countries in order to secure a Greater Israel that stretches pretty much "from the river to the sea". reducing the remnants of the Palestinian population to a series of ghetto enclaves populated by people with no rights as citizens and no state.
The US is quite happy to turn a blind eye to this, has been for years, but the US is a lot more keenly interested in how Israel behaves in foreign policy terms. There they might force some restraint from Israel. But for the Palestinians the US position has been to back up whatever Israel does in it's "back yard" and so there's very little hope for Palestine in pressuring the US, such as by getting UN recognition.
Egypt is where the political pressure could come from. The whole imperial network of client states, dictatorships and US friendly regimes that held together the middle east is falling apart, the political realities that American policy was based on have changed, that's an interesting change in things. But it'll still take years to play out.
The terms of the ceasefire are interesting, but allowing border crossings to be opened is not unusual. There's been a cycle underway for quite some time of Gaza's infastructure being attacked, then they open the borders to things like cement and building materials and let them rebuild a while, then when it's all rebuilt a few years later Israel cites how Hamas has "built it's capability" and uses it as a pretext to bomb them again. Usually to co-incide with elections.
This process is an ongoing part of a larger policy intended to both drive as much of the Palestinian population out of the area as possible, by reducing places like Gaza and areas near settlements on the West Bank to a state of dependence and poverty. The UN has estimated that by 2020 Gaza will be practically uninhabitable, and there are sections of the West Bank under similar threat. The purpose is to force as many of the population of Palestine as possible, which is very young on average btw, away into neighbouring countries in order to secure a Greater Israel that stretches pretty much "from the river to the sea". reducing the remnants of the Palestinian population to a series of ghetto enclaves populated by people with no rights as citizens and no state.
The US is quite happy to turn a blind eye to this, has been for years, but the US is a lot more keenly interested in how Israel behaves in foreign policy terms. There they might force some restraint from Israel. But for the Palestinians the US position has been to back up whatever Israel does in it's "back yard" and so there's very little hope for Palestine in pressuring the US, such as by getting UN recognition.
Egypt is where the political pressure could come from. The whole imperial network of client states, dictatorships and US friendly regimes that held together the middle east is falling apart, the political realities that American policy was based on have changed, that's an interesting change in things. But it'll still take years to play out.
Buckaroo
Donkey piss and tractors
Well yes elbows you would be an idiot to confidently proclaim that the ceasefire will hold firm but the last few days does not teach us to let fears overwhelm other possibilities when making predictions. No ground invasion fair enough, which I said (brinksmanship and all that) and yes I do lack optimism.
Buckaroo
Donkey piss and tractors
Well yes elbows you would be an idiot to confidently proclaim that the ceasefire will hold firm but the last few days does not teach us to let fears overwhelm other possibilities when making predictions. No ground invasion fair enough, which I said (brinksmanship and all that) and yes I do lack optimism.
Buckaroo
Donkey piss and tractors
Well yes elbows you would be an idiot to confidently proclaim that the ceasefire will hold firm but the last few days does not teach us to let fears overwhelm other possibilities when making predictions. No ground invasion fair enough, which I said (brinksmanship and all that) and yes I do lack optimism.
Buckaroo
Donkey piss and tractors
Well yes elbows you would be an idiot to confidently proclaim that the ceasefire will hold firm but the last few days does not teach us to let fears overwhelm other possibilities when making predictions. No ground invasion fair enough, which I said (brinksmanship and all that) and yes I do lack optimism.
Buckaroo
Donkey piss and tractors
Well yes elbows you would be an idiot to confidently proclaim that the ceasefire will hold firm but the last few days does not teach us to let fears overwhelm other possibilities when making predictions. No ground invasion fair enough, which I said (brinksmanship and all that) and yes I do lack optimism.
Buckaroo
Donkey piss and tractors
Yes! Sorry!
Hamas is the big winner in all of this, international sympathy and concessions. Israel for whatever reason, either operational or behind the scenes pressure from the US, did not want to go in.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Yes This is a strategic victory for Hamas. They have demonstrated their ability to hit Israel in its heartland and they have survived.More importantly they have shown that resistance, not appeasement can win concessions from Israel. Israel initiated this war in the belief that they could batter Hamas into submission and they ended it by having to negotiate their way out. Israel does not come out of this looking good at all. I think Netanyahu is in for a rough ride from his own right wing over this. They will be asking why he presented a strategic victory to the resistance
This is particularly important in terms of their relationship to the PA and Abbas. Abbas has been shown to be utterly utterly irrelevent throughout all this. He played no role in the ceasefire negotiations. He is supposed to present his UN bid for observer status next week and he is facing another humiliation as Israel and the US slap him down. The Palestinians in the West Bank have been enormously radicalised over this crisis. It has been little reported but there were outbreaks of rioting and demonstrations in virtually every town, many of them brutally crushed by the PA.
I think Abbas is finished.
Treacle Toes
Time
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Iran presents an interesting and somewhat contradictory issue. They did indeed supply the resistance with Farj 5s and helped build tunnels etc. However Iran's role as a regional power is under threat. Most obviously in Syria where their ally Assad is in big trouble. It is significant that Hamas have distanced themselves from Assad in recent years. Earlier this year they publicly supported the Syrian opposition and condemned Assad. Iran for its part is building relations with smaller resistance groups such as Islamic Jihad.
What we are seeing is the growth of the Muslim Brotherhood across the region. It is in power in Egypt. It is leading the protests in Jordan where it is confident enough to call for the overthrow of the King. It is amongst the Syrian opposition and it is a natural ally of Hamas who come from that tradition. I think we are witnessing Hamas move away from Iran and towards the Muslim Brotherhood and I think we are witnessing the rise of a Muslim Brotherhood axis spreading across the region something which raises interesting questions about the future relationship between Hamas and Egypt and Egypt's relationship to Israel.
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Egypt are big winners in this, another example of waning US relevance too.
Similar threads
