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Operation pillar of cloud. Israeli assault on Gaza

Just having a think about the various motive theories:

'Something to do with Iran'
Elections
Missiles/security
Scuppering a more permanent ceasefire plan
Part of a game in regards to the PLO plans to seek a new status at the UN later this month

I'm sure there are a number of other ones, anyone care to have a stab?

One possibility that interests me is that it could be due to a reduction in the isolation of Hamas recently, in substantial part due to arab spring regime changes and some others in the region seeking to become more significant players - eg Qatar's emir visited Gaza in October.
 
Well they just finished that training exerceise with US forces so its possible they wanted to have a more realistic practical test. I suppose thats also one of many things that could sprout out of the 'something about Iran' category.
 
elbows said:
Well they just finished that training exerceise with US forces so its possible they wanted to have a more realistic practical test. I suppose thats also one of many things that could sprout out of the 'something about Iran' category.
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Say they go in on the ground and find these new longer range missiles and can argue they were supplied to Gaza by Iran.

Perhaps Gaza will have fired them all by then though :)
 
Grandma Death said:
Ive just sent this image to my mate who's a freelance journalist for the BBC this was his response:


"Probably a verification issue. May know that the people died but unable to confirm they were killed by the airstrike rather than by something else during it. Could be error, rushed reporter using words from official release without scrutinizing properly"
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Do you think that was the only example?
 
The account of the Edinburgh demo write up on the BBC Scotland website had 28 words of comment from the Palestine Solidarity demonstrators, 29 words of comment from William Hague and 47 words of comment from pro Israeli Bicom representative. Its spot the bias Media Studies 101.
 
Apparently Al Quassam gave a speech on Hamas TV tonight, and they promised to show an exclusive video afterwards. This is what it turned out to be, not exactly what you would call conclusive proof of them shooting down an Israeli jet which is apparently what they are still trying to claim they managed to achieve.

 
elbows said:
Just having a think about the various motive theories:

'Something to do with Iran'
Elections
Missiles/security
Scuppering a more permanent ceasefire plan
Part of a game in regards to the PLO plans to seek a new status at the UN later this month

I'm sure there are a number of other ones, anyone care to have a stab?

One possibility that interests me is that it could be due to a reduction in the isolation of Hamas recently, in substantial part due to arab spring regime changes and some others in the region seeking to become more significant players - eg Qatar's emir visited Gaza in October.
Click to expand...
I think the Iranian angle is there but as background noise and in the sense that Iran are arming Hamas and if reports about Sudan etc are accurate they are having some success in smuggling some better grade rockets into Gaza. If this is true then it's a major blow to Israeli intelligence and hints that the Sudan mission was a failure at least in part, not least because the weapons they were trying to stop got in, or at least some of them did. There is then a degree of face saving going on. An attempt to act now so as not to have to look weak later and have to explain the intelligence failure when these weapons are used. So there is a degree of proxy war going on but I don't think its more than the fact that Hamas may have a few better weapons that is driving Israel in this regard rather than any kind of larger conspiracy. In a nutshell, Iran are an angle because they may have given Hamas better weapons. From the point of view of someone who supports the resistance I say good. I hope they have.

It is hard to discount the fact that elections are on in a couple of months or to note that cast lead was also launched before an election. I don't think it's Netanyahu's primary motivation but I think its a nice bonus. Netanyahu is already doing well in opinion polls (which I found surprising given the social protests recently) so I don't go for the "boost his flagging electoral support" line.

Rockets, well I think that's covered by (1) really.

The evidence for this being an attempt to scupper a ceasefire is pretty damning and I think this is a major factor. Netanyahu is a hawk. He believes in a military victory. He always has. It must bug him and senior IDF figures that Hamas are still there and still defiant even after the lunatic attack of Cast Lead and I think he believes he can destroy them militarily. If this is a motivation it is a very ominous sign of the future because if he thinks Cast Lead didn't do enough then god help the people of Gaza if he plans to go further. HIstory of course, is against him but since when did reality ever trump ideology with people like Netanyahu?

I think there is a general pattern in Israel's military strategy, not just in relation to Palestinian resistance but in terms of Israel's regional military strategy in general. Israel have always believed in maintaining a massive and overwhelming superiority over their neighbours. To this end then, attacks like the one we are watching are "merely" periodic necessities to degrade the enemy's capabilities and demoralise the moral of their people. I think there is a belief in Israeli military circles that attacking Gaza is simply a necessity to be carried out periodically.
 
A combination of motives does seem quite plausible.

I remain especially interested in the 'Hamas have new friends' angle, and Qatar being one of them has some significance since the west needs Qatar. So whilst I would not go as far as to say that Qatar are equal partners with the US,UK etc, they do have a bit more freedom to do their own thing than some.
 
It bothers me that news outlets are only listing the numbers of people killed on both sides. They have also done this consistantly in respect of British army deaths in Afghanistan. I think they should also list the injured. In these few days of conflict between Israel and Gaza already there are more than ten times the deaths in Gaza compared to Israel, but the difference in people injured is a hundred fold, there have been at least 300 injured in Gaza and 40 odd deaths, in Israel three deaths, no mention that I have seen of any injuries.
 
Yitzhak Rabin, how we could do with you now.

We are destined to live together, on the same soil in the same land. We, the soldiers who have returned from battle stained with blood, we who have seen our relatives and friends killed before our eyes, we who have attended their funerals and cannot look into the eyes of their parents, we who have come from a land where parents bury their children, we who have fought against you, the Palestinians We say to you today in a loud and clear voice: Enough of blood and tears. Enough.

We have no desire for revenge. We harbor no hatred towards you. We, like you, are people who want to build a home, to plant a tree, to love, live side by side with you in dignity, in empathy, as human beings, as free men. We are today giving peace a chance and again saying to you in a clear voice: Enough.
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My dad sat me in front of the TV in 1993 and told me to remember Arafat and Rabin shaking hands, that it was the start of the end of a war and the beginning of peace. Such optimism.
 
dylans said:
Yeah I watched that Finkelstein interview. I'm not convinced he is right on this. I think he gives far too much weight to the power of public opinion. Netanyahu is riding a wave on this and the US have given him the green light to do what the fuck he likes. I don't think Turkey or Egypts protests are going to swing Washington's position.
In fact I will put my opinion on the line and say I think they are going in and I think they are going in tonight
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The Israelis finally lifted a two year embargo on Eitam manufactured components that were delaying delivery of Turkey's 737-700 AEW&C aircraft on 11th November. So there has obviously been a deal done for Turkish quiescence on the Gaza operation.
 
News in the last hour or so that they've been firing shells from war ships, and they've hit a media building and injured some journalists. The building used to house BBC & Al Jazeera but I think they moved out last year, so its local media such as al-Quds that has been hit. Various tweets suggest someone lost a leg.
 
They reportedly hit another tv building used by local media & international ones such as Reuters, Sky & ITN.
 
["smmudge, post: 11709427, member: 37369"]Do you think that was the only example?[/quote]

Probably not but I do know that sections of the BBC are reporting that Palestinians have been killed by Israeli rockets. So maybe my friend has a point? The BBC is often accused of bias... By both sides in this conflict. So... It does beggar the question.. Who's right?
 
catinthehat said:
Between 5 - 7 hundred. Police even entertained without intervention a bit of a sit down and several stops outside Starbucks et al.

eta - for shouting purposes not for coffee in a Mensch style.
Click to expand...

I thought it looked like about a thousand by the time we were going up the Mound. We definitely picked some up on the way
 
dylans said:
In fact I will put my opinion on the line and say I think they are going in and I think they are going in tonight
Click to expand...

Well, I for one will miss your measured and judicious posts on Middle Eastern affairs, but as you "put your opinion on the line" last night, I respect your decision to maintain silence on the topic henceforth.
 
I think some of this is a big fuck you to obama who wasnt terribly keen on bomb the fuck out of iran well not nearly as keen as mitt.

But its probably in the IDF year planner its November time to bomb Hamas again shoot a few pals until somebody lobs some rockets at you test the new iron dome interceptors and then get back to good old fashioned smiting:(

Cynical to belive maybe somebody has links with islamic jihad to replace hamas as hamas not really scary enough anymore:)
See everyone for op big smoking crater nov 13 except for those who are dead :(
 
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