Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
if you actually buy something they'd be pleased to host you for longer
Ministers target July 4th for reopening of England’s pubs and restaurants
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klang
klang
skint
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
skint
elbows
Well-Known Member
I mostly only express optimism at the moment when faced with people who seemed to be expecting an instantaneous second wave of epic proportions within days or a few weeks of restrictions being eased. I thought there was at least likely to be more time than that, hence my 'recharge the batteries' June stance.
If anyone asked me whether I was optimistic that the level of economic resumption being sought is compatible with controlling the virus, I would say no, far from it. But exactly where to position myself in this spectrum is tricky. There are understandable concerns in many countries that they have gone too far with the easing, but if I take these concerns to their natural conclusion then I'm right back where I dont want to be, at least not this month. I suppose for now I will mute some of my strongest concerns until such a time as explosive growth in cases is seen in europe again, under which conditions I will be likely to talk about some things as being inevitable once more.
I certainly dont underestimate the challenge. Herculean efforts are required in test & trace systems in order to avoid this shit, and this is another numbers game where there is a definite maximum capacity of such systems, and if things are allowed to get beyond that then we are back to where we were in March, requiring draconian measures to slam on the brakes.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
None of the pubs where I live ask your details for Wi-fi, they just have a password stuck up at the bar somewhere.
My phone has consistent Wi-fi coverage from one end of the High Street to the other
“the oval” Kennington’s biggest beer garden ?
or lords St. John’s woods biggest Champagne jardin ?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Some brewery chains do though. Normally so they can bombard you with offers if you don't untick the box.None of the pubs where I live ask your details for Wi-fi, they just have a password stuck up at the bar somewhere.
My phone has consistent Wi-fi coverage from one end of the High Street to the other
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Here's an article from 26 May. Headline sound familiar?
‘The appeal to common sense hasn’t worked’: Italian politicians alarmed as huge crowds flock to bars and beaches
Italian politicians alarmed as huge crowds flock to bars and beaches
What we don't get so much is the follow-up article with the same prominence and screaming headline two weeks later saying that it turns out that there wasn't anything to worry about. Italy is in a decent place now, and has been for the last month - new infections and deaths down below 5 per cent of peak.
And there has been easing anxiety just about everywhere. At one point, most Danes didn't want schools to reopen. They did and it was fine. Most Swiss in a poll said they thought easing was happening too quickly, but it's been fine. People are understandably twitchy, but that doesn't mean their twitchiness is well-founded.
It will be similar with the German meat plant outbreak. R number soars to 2.8 makes a good headline, but while technically correct, it is extremely misleading. 1,700 workers in one location tested positive. Systems for track and trace have kicked in, some local restrictions were reimposed, people are pissed off, understandably. But will we get a second article some time next week saying 'all under control now'? And such incidents aren't even directly related to lockdown easing as meat processing plants have been open all along. This won't have been the first such mass infection event in Germany. It makes the headlines now because it stands out. That's actually a testament to how far Germany has come.
Certain models months ago were predicting virtual disappearance of the virus in parts of Europe by June. That hasn't happened anywhere. Everywhere has calmed down, but everywhere has hit a certain ongoing background level of transmission. That of course leaves the possibility of second waves, but screaming doom at every infection incident doesn't help anyone.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And thats why I have pretty much ignored such stories for over a month and took a nice break (relative to how much time I was previously spending on the pandemic).
My position is not the same as yours but thats because we have slightly different opinions about what measures are necessary, how much things can be relaxed, schools etc. I would still have relaxed things, but I'd rather we had stamped down harder and got better local information sharing earlier so that we could have entered this phase in a slightly better position. My expectations for the future are still relatively neutral, I dont think there is an eventuality that could shock me, various scenarios seem plausible in the months ahead.
My position is not the same as yours but thats because we have slightly different opinions about what measures are necessary, how much things can be relaxed, schools etc. I would still have relaxed things, but I'd rather we had stamped down harder and got better local information sharing earlier so that we could have entered this phase in a slightly better position. My expectations for the future are still relatively neutral, I dont think there is an eventuality that could shock me, various scenarios seem plausible in the months ahead.
editor
hiraethified
I went to a friend's birthday in the park a few days back. Must have been some 50 people spread around. I was doing my damnedest to keep at least a metre away from everyone and not going into areas that were packed with people (like where the free cider was), but fucking hell, at the end people were all crammed together for group shots and hugging each other.
I'm normally expected to photograph these kind of social shindigs but I didn't take any pictures at all because that would be seen as a cue for people to all pack into the frame and start posing.
And these are what I'd generally count as sensible people so I think we're fucked. People like to hug and get make contact with people, and the combination of three months avoidance mixed in with booze plus sunshine seems to provide an irresistible pull for, err, potentially dangerous liaisons.
I'm normally expected to photograph these kind of social shindigs but I didn't take any pictures at all because that would be seen as a cue for people to all pack into the frame and start posing.
And these are what I'd generally count as sensible people so I think we're fucked. People like to hug and get make contact with people, and the combination of three months avoidance mixed in with booze plus sunshine seems to provide an irresistible pull for, err, potentially dangerous liaisons.
It’ll just make the ones that are open even busier
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Top tip: get in there at opening
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Plus an unhealthy dose of government incompetence and mixed messages
Tbh since I’m out of the habit of going to the pub I’ll continue to not go.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Crack open a can at opening then
Supine
Newt Member
Not good news from a bar that had apparently implemented some covid safe measures.
www.cnn.com
Patrons are asked to self-quarantine after about 85 people who visited a Michigan bar get Covid-19 | CNN
People who visited a bar in East Lansing, Michigan, are being asked to self-quarantine because roughly 85 people contracted Covid-19 after visiting the establishment this month, a health official says.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I would have favoured keeping pubs etc on financial life support rather than opening them at this moment. I've tried to go along with as much of the relaxing as I could so as not to be so anti-risk that my approach would risk melting peoples mental health at a time when they should be trying to recharge, but I think I've hit my limit with pubs etc at this looming moment in time.
Of course I am probably influenced at the moment by events in the USA, and local outbreaks so much closer to home, in my local hospital and the city of Leicester.
Of course I am probably influenced at the moment by events in the USA, and local outbreaks so much closer to home, in my local hospital and the city of Leicester.
I spoke to a few people that work in pubs over the weekend. As others are saying upthread they were not planning to open this weekend. I've seen a couple of local ones saying they'll open but its reservation only.
I'm going to wait and see how this all works out.
I'm going to wait and see how this all works out.
Mrs Miggins
Eternal
I've got no massive desire to get to the pub at all costs either. I'd like to go out but I'd rather be going to the National Gallery if I'm honest.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
tbh for the sake of the pubs themselves, I think I agree with you. Opening beer gardens, with a serving hatch to the outside, where they have them, absolutely fine, in fact probably overdue. But I'd leave it like that for another month probably wrt pubs specifically - I think restaurants are different as you can space out tables and do it in a more controlled way. One more month of support for those pubs that don't have gardens before allowing them to open might have been the difference for some places - little pubs without outdoors are going to be going bust here, cos there isn't going to be much business. I think the posts here show that clearly enough - sure we're not a representative sample of the population, but we do represent a sample of regular and enthusiastic pub goers, and very few of us are busting to get inside a pub atm.
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