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Israel-Iran conflicts - news and discussion

Looks like Nutteryahoo is going to get his war with Iran then. Let's thank Genocide Joe for his input.
Nutteryahoo's wet dream

I think the problem is more fundamental than people like Nutteryahoo.
I am guessing in Nutteryahoo's wildest dreams is that Iran overreacts

Probably it is not wise to put all the emphasis on Nutteryahoo, but I don't have much faith in Israeli politics

Plus Iran would be nutty to overreact even if Nutteryahoo cannot control himself.

Nutteryahoo blocks Oct 7 investigation
Are you 12? Just stop.
 
Looks like Nutteryahoo is going to get his war with Iran then. Let's thank Genocide Joe for his input.


This probably isn’t true either. Looks like Israel has attacked Iran with one missile fired from Iraq and a few drones which have all been shot down, just enough for honour to have been satisfied domestically but still mild enough for Iran to pretend that nothing happened, earning Netanyahu enough points for not escalating to be allowed a reasonably free hand in Rafah while still getting an uplift in US support.
 
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So it looks like Iranian air defense blocked some of Israel's missiles but Iranian media is reporting that an air force base / airport has been affected.
 
I wonder if this merry go round ride will continue, I suspect it will
It's pretty grim isn't it?


Some analysis from Al Jazeera

Far more limited than many expected’​


An Iranian arms control expert says the reported attack “was far more limited than many expected”.
In an interview with Al Jazeera, Ali Ahmadi said Israel “has much more limitations in its operational range” than many think.
“Certainly, after Iran’s retaliatory capacity was criticised, it benefits from advertising how ineffective what Israel did was as well. Iran also needs to prepare the public for a much softer reaction than it has talked about in the last couple of days,” he pointed out.
Ahmadi said that prior to today’s incident, Iran was preparing all sorts of options for massive retaliation including getting allies involved.
But considering the limited scope and impact of the alleged attack, which he described as a “security sabotage” rather than a “military assault”, it would be a mistake to carry out a massive response, he stressed.
 
It's pretty grim isn't it?


Some analysis from Al Jazeera

Far more limited than many expected’​


An Iranian arms control expert says the reported attack “was far more limited than many expected”.
In an interview with Al Jazeera, Ali Ahmadi said Israel “has much more limitations in its operational range” than many think.
“Certainly, after Iran’s retaliatory capacity was criticised, it benefits from advertising how ineffective what Israel did was as well. Iran also needs to prepare the public for a much softer reaction than it has talked about in the last couple of days,” he pointed out.
Ahmadi said that prior to today’s incident, Iran was preparing all sorts of options for massive retaliation including getting allies involved.
But considering the limited scope and impact of the alleged attack, which he described as a “security sabotage” rather than a “military assault”, it would be a mistake to carry out a massive response, he stressed.
The killing of Atchduke F
 
Now suggestions that they were UAVs launched within Iranian territory anyway. There's a possibility that this is just a pre-strike probe, aimed at lighting up and mapping AD, radar, other air defence-related assets. Meanwhile, the IAF were busy over southern Syria last night, neutralising AD there, which might be a sweeping of a corridor to Iran (or maybe just intended to look like such).
 
Now suggestions that they were UAVs launched within Iranian territory anyway. There's a possibility that this is just a pre-strike probe, aimed at lighting up and mapping AD, radar, other air defence-related assets. Meanwhile, the IAF were busy over southern Syria last night, neutralising AD there, which might be a sweeping of a corridor to Iran (or maybe just intended to look like such).
What do you reckon 2hats tit for tat or something worse?
 
A deniable assassination by chopper a month after the incident seems fair enough in the revenge and deterrence stakes really.
 
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Analysis of the expected response from Israel to the attack on the occupied Golan Heights which killed a number of Druze civilians including children:

 
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Hamas’ top political leader is killed in Iran in strike that risks triggering all-out regional war
AP. August 1, 2024
The assassination was potentially explosive amid the region’s volatile, intertwined conflicts because of its target, its timing and the decision to carry it out in Tehran. Most dangerous was the potential to push Iran and Israel into direct confrontation if Iran retaliates. The U.S. and other nations scrambled to prevent a wider, deadlier conflict.
In a statement on his official website, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said revenge was “our duty” and that Israel had “prepared a harsh punishment for itself” by killing “a dear guest in our home.”
Bitter regional rivals, Israel and Iran risked plunging into war earlier this year when Israel hit Iran’s embassy in Damascus in April. Iran retaliated, and Israel countered in an unprecedented exchange of strikes on each other’s soil, but international efforts succeeded in containing that cycle before it spun out of control.
 
Israel and the U.S. are preparing for an unpredictable Iranian retaliatory strike on Israel as soon as this weekend, as Tehran stonewalls diplomats trying to prevent a regional Middle East war.

Israel said Friday its military was on high alert, while U.S. officials worked to get military assets and regional partners ready to stop another attack that some fear could be broader and more complex than an Iranian assault in April.
In that attack, Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel, but only after telegraphing its response to diplomats ahead of time and giving Israel and the U.S. time to prepare. Ultimately, most of the projectiles were shot down before reaching Israel.

This time, Israel and its allies are operating in a vacuum.
U.S. and Arab diplomats working to head off a spiral of violence are getting an angry silence from Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, which are preparing to retaliate for killings in Tehran and Beirut. An Iranian diplomat, briefed by his government, said attempts by various countries to convince Tehran not to escalate had been and would be fruitless given Israel’s recent attacks.

“There is no point. Israel crossed all the red lines,” the diplomat said. “Our response will be swift and heavy.”
It's only a couple of months since the death of Iran's former President Ebrahim Raisi. The assassinations, especially one in Tehran, are only going to fan the flames of conspiracy theories.

“There is no point. Israel crossed all the red lines,” the diplomat said. “Our response will be swift and heavy.” - Sounds categorical to me.
 
Doesn't quite go here? Not sure where else though.


Doesn't seem to say that it's "in retaliation" to anything.
If you google "pre-emptive strikes" Israel attacking Egypt in 1967 comes up
Still really cool jets yeah? woosh boom fast wow
 
Frankly, I think the US stepping back and letting Israel get a bit of a kicking would be the better way to avoid all out war than their current ridiculous and counterproductive strategies.

It's clear the Israeli government wants war as they have assasinated ultimately the main person who would have signed off a cease fire or peaceful resolution. And perhaps a more moderate and pragmatic voice within Hamas, who had the best connections with Iran/Hizbullah and Qatar.

It seems possible the Israelis either used a drone to kill him or managed to sneak a remote bomb into a top military guest house in Tehran. At the very very least this is going to embarrass and enrage the regime while also fucking future talks with Hamas and alienating countries like Egypt and Turkey.

It shows even more how doddery old Biden really has lost the plot by ramping up the tension moving in aircraft carriers and serious military assets. He can only stand to lose from this.
 
It's only a couple of months since the death of Iran's former President Ebrahim Raisi. The assassinations, especially one in Tehran, are only going to fan the flames of conspiracy theories.

“There is no point. Israel crossed all the red lines,” the diplomat said. “Our response will be swift and heavy.” - Sounds categorical to me.
Fuck
 
On a side note - a houthi delegation visited tehran on monday to discuss future relationships and gaza.
First time tehran / houthis make a high profile public showing of this.
(Must admit i have always been a bit confused about the alleged coop between the 2....)

  • On July 29, 2024, Iranian President Pezeshkian met with Yemeni Houthi spokesman Mohammad Abdeslam and praised the Houthis for their support for the Palestinians. He stressed that all Islamic countries had to cooperate to prevent harm to Muslims and that cooperation between Iran and Yemen would continue and strengthen (IRNA, July 30, 2024). Abdeslam said they discussed relations between Houthi Yemen and Iran and ways to develop them for the benefit of both peoples. They also discussed the Gaza Strip and “Palestine” and the responsibility of all Muslims to support the Gaza Strip by all possible means to help it deal with Israel, the United States, and the West (Mohammed Abdeslam’s X account, July 30, 2024). On July 30, 2024, the Houthi spokesman met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (Fars, July 30, 2024).


 
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