Israel-Iran conflicts - news and discussion

[YouSir]

Thread reminds me of when people would insist on writing BLiar instead of Blair. Always got on my tits.

That's my only observation.

 

[Protag]

Seek therapy. I don't agree with virtually none of the Guardian but I still read it occasionally.

 

[krtek a houby]

Seek therapy. I don't agree with virtually none of the Guardian but I still read it occasionally.

Don't say you weren't warned

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Explain the warmongering over Iran in rational terms. It is an interesting topic, albeit a sensitive one. I am sure U75 will cope. I struggle!

hth:
iran is obviously the smaller satan
edit: got me coat and it's cold outside

 

[Protag]

The basic thing I would say is that if Obama was willing to cut a deal with Iran, then Iran is more of a problem for Israel than the United States - i.e. it is not in the interest of the US to get into a shooting war. It makes sense because as far as I can remember, the obsession with Iran was a neocon thing more than anything else.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

The genocide and devestation that occurred in Ireland over the years of British oppression would indicate otherwise.

Not comparable, no nuclear war was ever likely.

 

[mojo pixy]

Lunatic is a rather meaningless term. However, as we saw with Trump, it is quite possible for someone who may not have the cognitive capacity to fulfill the Intense, challenging, multifaceted demands that being a Head of Government demands to achieve such a position.

You can say a lot of shit about trump but it's clear he had and has the cognitive capacity to fulfil the job of POTUS. He might be a terrible prick, he might be deluded and narcissistic, but he does know what he's doing.

I agree "lunatic" is a pretty meaningless term, I just don't like it when people chuck around mental health insults instead of making actual points, especially when they're trying to be comedic with it.

 

[Rob Ray]

 

[Humberto]

View attachment 400107

Rob?

 

[bcuster]

My most fervent hope is that the US remains completely out

 

[krtek a houby]

Not comparable, no nuclear war was ever likely.

Talking about the horrors visited on Ireland and the Irish people for generations and generations. Right up to very recently. And some might well say still suffering at the indignity of a partition visited upon the island.

Ireland endured genocide, murder, lands taken, families pushed out of their homes, disease and starvation , oppressions, erasure of language, culture, religion.

Mentioning nuclear weapons repeatedly doesn't make Irish people not have an affinity with Palestine people.

There's a shared similar historical experience.

 

[krtek a houby]

Speaking of which, Richard Boyd Barrett in an interview from a couple of months back.

He touches on the parallels I've mentioned between the Irish and Palestinian people. Specifically from 5:05 - 13:20.



Also discussed is the Shannon Airport scandal, imperialism, armed struggles, the cosying up to NATO, Ireland's neutrality, the right for the Palestinian people to defend themselves, Russian opposition to the Ukrainian invasion and why an international movement against imperialists and war is essential.

 

[mojo pixy]

As for war with Iran, Protag , Israel doesn't actually want that. It's not remotely in Israeli interests to have a full-on war with the Islamic Republic. Israel is surrounded by potential allies of Iran and despite Iran's so-called pariah status (and the high probability that the USA would leap in to defend Israel) the danger for that very tiny state in provoking a war with half the Muslim countries of the world (possibly even all of them except Saudi Arabia) would be immense, very likely an existential threat.

In short, Bibi can whip up hysteria over Iran all he wants, it doesn't mean a thing, it's just his usual demagoguery. Plus if Trump wins in 2024, Israel may no longer have the big US ally it has had in the past.

So yeah, don't worry; the situation in Ukraine is still more dangerous for us than anything likely to happen in Israel. Unfortunately the same can't be said for the Palestinian people, but that's not really what we're talking about here.

 

[tim]

You can say a lot of shit about trump but it's clear he had and has the cognitive capacity to fulfil the job of POTUS. He might be a terrible prick, he might be deluded and narcissistic, but he does know what he's doing.

I agree "lunatic" is a pretty meaningless term, I just don't like it when people chuck around mental health insults instead of making actual points, especially when they're trying to be comedic with it.

I have half a shelf of books by Wolf, Bernstein and that cunt with the tache which claim that Trump wasn't capable, which is why so much of the time his presidency was in the edge. He came across as volatile; unreliable; either unwilling or unable to follow complex issues and easily influenced by the last person he met, eager to do what they said if they impressed him. His delusion driven attempts to remain in office and the calamity at the Capitol are a reflection of this

 

[elbows]

I have half a shelf of books by Wolf, Bernstein and that cunt with the tache which claim that Trump wasn't capable, which is why so much of the time his presidency was in the edge. He came across as volatile; unreliable; either unwilling or unable to follow complex issues and easily influenced by the last person he met, eager to do what they said if they impressed him. His delusion driven attempts to remain in office and the calamity at the Capitol are a reflection of this

And they had to keep putting his own name in various sentences in briefing papers to try to get him to pay attention when reading them.

 

[tim]

As for war with Iran, Protag , Israel doesn't actually want that. It's not remotely in Israeli interests to have a full-on war with the Islamic Republic. Israel is surrounded by potential allies of Iran and despite Iran's so-called pariah status (and the high probability that the USA would leap in to defend Israel) the danger for that very tiny state in provoking a war with half the Muslim countries of the world (possibly even all of them except Saudi Arabia) would be immense, very likely an existential threat.

In short, Bibi can whip up hysteria over Iran all he wants, it doesn't mean a thing, it's just his usual demagoguery. Plus if Trump wins in 2024, Israel may no longer have the big US ally it has had in the past.

So yeah, don't worry; the situation in Ukraine is still more dangerous for us than anything likely to happen in Israel. Unfortunately the same can't be said for the Palestinian people, but that's not really what we're talking about here.

Syria, to some degree Lebanon may be actual or potentially natural allies of Iran, but Egypt and Jordan definitely aren't.

 

[mojo pixy]

Syria, to some degree Lebanon may be actual or potentially natural allies of Iran, but Egypt and Jordan definitely aren't.

You'll have seen the word 'potential', right? And the more Israel abuses the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, the more that potential grows. I'd add that Israel has no obvious allies in its own region, not even against Iran. Potentially Saudi Arabia but I really doubt they'd side with Israel against any Muslim state, not even Iran.

 

[mojo pixy]

I have half a shelf of books by Wolf, Bernstein and that cunt with the tache which claim that Trump wasn't capable, which is why so much of the time his presidency was in the edge. He came across as volatile; unreliable; either unwilling or unable to follow complex issues and easily influenced by the last person he met, eager to do what they said if they impressed him. His delusion driven attempts to remain in office and the calamity at the Capitol are a reflection of this

That's all very well, but he served out his term and may even win a second. Pretty good going for someone 'incapable' of being president of the USA.

 

[tim]

You'll have seen the word 'potential', right? And the more Israel abuses the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, the more that potential grows. I'd add that Israel has no obvious allies in its own region, not even against Iran. Potentially Saudi Arabia but I really doubt they'd side with Israel against any Muslim state, not even Iran.

Iran and Israel are both outliers in the region as predominantly non-Arab majority entities. Iran is further marginalized by being a Shi'a theocratic state.

The Egyptian regime will be happy to see Hamas neutralised because it is an offshoot of the Islamic Brotherhood movement that was briefly in power in Egypt after the fall of Mubarak and was then crushed after the Sisi coup. The Egyptians are also brutally putting down resistance to central rule in the Sinai region. The regime will make noises about Israeli crimes, but they signed a treaty with Israel back in 1979 and will keep basically friendly relations. Egypt is a military dictatorship so the feelings of the people on the street are not that relevant.

The latter is true for the Saudis too, and Saudi would like to collaborate with Israel because without Israeli approval their plans for Neom will be fettered. The Saudi (the Crown Prince's) dream is to create and pan-national economic zone around the Gulf of Aqaba where the borders if Egypt Jordan and Saudi Arabia almost meet. However, there is also a sliver of Israel around Eilat separating Jordan and Egypt.

 

[tim]

That's all very well, but he served out his term and may even win a second. Pretty good going for someone 'incapable' of being president of the USA.

He did serve his term and he may well win a second. However, he brought the USA to the brink of civil conflict and left it a diminished power on the international stage

 

[existentialist]

Seek therapy. I don't agree with virtually none of the Guardian but I still read it occasionally.

Ease up on the snide mental health gags, there's a good chap.

 

[existentialist]

And they had to keep putting his own name in various sentences in briefing papers to try to get him to pay attention when reading them.

Wow. That's some fairly complete lack of self-awareness...

 

[mojo pixy]

Iran and Israel are both outliers in the region as predominantly non-Arab majority entities. Iran is further marginalized by being a Shi'a theocratic state.

The Egyptian regime will be happy to see Hamas neutralised because it is an offshoot of the Islamic Brotherhood movement that was briefly in power in Egypt after the fall of Mubarak and was then crushed after the Sisi coup. The Egyptians are also brutally putting down resistance to central rule in the Sinai region. The regime will make noises about Israeli crimes, but they signed a treaty with Israel back in 1979 and will keep basically friendly relations. Egypt is a military dictatorship so the feelings of the people on the street are not that relevant.

The latter is true for the Saudis too, and Saudi would like to collaborate with Israel because without Israeli approval their plans for Neom will be fettered. The Saudi (the Crown Prince's) dream is to create and pan-national economic zone around the Gulf of Aqaba where the borders if Egypt Jordan and Saudi Arabia almost meet. However, there is also a sliver of Israel around Eilat separating Jordan and Egypt.

I know this but it's good to have it all posted as background so thanks.

Are you saying all this makes war between Israel and Iran more likely, or less likely? I still think less. I maintain Bibi and the other hawkish errr 'nutters' in Israel like to go on about Iran for populist reasons, but without an actual go-ahead from Washington would and will never go for it.

 

[mojo pixy]

Additionally, attacking Iran would probably piss Russia right off, which Israel would not want to do.

 

[tim]

I know this but it's good to have it all posted as background so thanks.

Are you saying all this makes war between Israel and Iran more likely, or less likely? I still think less. I maintain Bibi and the other hawkish errr 'nutters' in Israel like to go on about Iran for populist reasons, but without an actual go-ahead from Washington would and will never go for it.

Don't they both need each other as paper enemies to actually go to war? Both Iran and Israel seem to have their proxies to do their dirty work without engaging in full scale direct conflict

 

[mojo pixy]

Don't they both need each other as paper enemies to actually go to war? Both Iran and Israel seem to have their proxies to do their dirty work without engaging in full scale direct conflict

Who is Israel's proxy in this scenario?

 

[Magnus McGinty]

I thought Israel was the proxy. So them fighting Hamas is essentially a proxy war between the US and Iran.

 

[mojo pixy]

I thought Israel was the proxy. So them fighting Hamas is essentially a proxy war between the US and Iran.

I'm sure some people believe that, it seems like the kind of thing Neil Oliver or RT might propose.

I don't think Israel is anyone's proxy tbh.

 

[phildwyer]

No. The guy is a complete lunatic, and considering the state of Israeli politics, that is quite a feat.

He's not a lunatic, he's something worse.

We don't hear this terminology much in the Western MSM, but the moderate Israeli press has been calling him a "Jewish Supremacist" ever since he brought Kach into his government. The center-left paper Haaretz has no qualms about applying that label to him, and claiming that he regards Gentile life as less valuable than Jewish life. They call him the most overtly racist head of state currently in power:

Netanyahu is the leader of Jewish supremacy | Editorial

***

www.haaretz.com

 

[tim]

Who is Israel's proxy in this scenario?

Azerbaijan for a start, who the Israelis gave recent support enabling them to defeat the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. Iran is Azerbaijan's neighbour and most ethnic Azerbaijanis live in the Iranian Azerbaijani provinces where Iran do not want separatist movements emerging.

Israel has also always had strong historic links with Christian militias in Lebanon.

Israeli arms quietly helped Azerbaijan retake Nagorno-Karabakh, to the dismay of region's Armenians

Israel has quietly helped fuel Azerbaijan’s campaign to recapture Nagorno-Karabakh, supplying powerful weapons to the country ahead of its lightening offensive last month that brought the Armenian separatist enclave in its territory back under its control.

apnews.com