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Probably a stupid question but may I ask why you say that (bold bit) please Idaho
I thought sending some coin from 1 wallet to another is untraceable.
It's very traceable! Bitcoin is described as psuedonomous. All the transactions are publicly available. The only anonymity is who owns the bitcoin addresses. So LBJ can send me 1btc from his address to mine, but if no one knows who owns those addresses, then it's completely private. However, it's often quite easy to pin someone to an address if they have used it a few times or if it's been associated with a certified kyc (know your customer) account.
 
I think it's a bit too soon to tell what the implications will be of quadrupling the money supply over the last decade.
The crap about inflation I mentioned relates to bitcoin's supposed solution to it.

As I mentioned earlier, the bubble has created a mass of fictitious capital. Where does that go? The conventional account of that would say that it needs to be destroyed, either by being wiped out and leading to a bunch of people losing money or through inflation.
 
The crap about inflation I mentioned relates to bitcoin's supposed solution to it.
The only real test will be if we get significant inflation from QE, and if significant numbers of people buy bitcoin as a response to that. If we do get double digit inflation and a few tens of millions of people decide to store money as bitcoin, then it will be a solution of sorts, regardless of how many other people think that's ridiculous.
 
The only real test will be if we get significant inflation from QE, and if significant numbers of people buy bitcoin as a response to that. If we do get double digit inflation and a few tens of millions of people decide to store money as bitcoin, then it will be a solution of sorts, regardless of how many other people think that's ridiculous.
In a world of high inflation, it doesn’t make sense to store money — particularly in a non-value adding place whose return relies only on others buying into the pyramid scheme.
 
The only real test will be if we get significant inflation from QE, and if significant numbers of people buy bitcoin as a response to that. If we do get double digit inflation and a few tens of millions of people decide to store money as bitcoin, then it will be a solution of sorts, regardless of how many other people think that's ridiculous.
That 'store' of money in bitcoin would still have to either be destroyed or cause inflation at some point. But that doesn't change the fact that bitcoin's boom has itself created a mountain of fictitious capital.

But I don't see QE causing high inflation any time soon. Certain people have been predicting it ever since 2008, but Japan has bumbled along at near-zero inflation for 30 years and it started QE in the mid-1990s. In theory, the central bank ought to pay back its iou to itself at some point to destroy the QE. In practice, we continue to fail to reach the point where that is necessary.
 
In a world of high inflation, it doesn’t make sense to store money — particularly in a non-value adding place whose return relies only on others buying into the pyramid scheme.
The fact that it makes no sense to you isn't terribly relevant. Bitcoin has made no sense to you for over a decade, and in that time has become extremely valuable to millions of people. Within that consensus it's not important what people outside that consensus think.
 
But I don't see QE causing high inflation any time soon. Certain people have been predicting it ever since 2008, but Japan has bumbled along at near-zero inflation for 30 years and it started QE in the mid-1990s. In theory, the central bank ought to pay back its iou to itself at some point to destroy the QE. In practice, we continue to fail to reach the point where that is necessary.
I hope so!
 
The fact that it makes no sense to you isn't terribly relevant. Bitcoin has made no sense to you for over a decade, and in that time has become extremely valuable to millions of people. Within that consensus it's not important what people outside that consensus think.
Where has that value come from?
 
Where has that value come from?
You'd have to ask all those people i suppose. They'd probably give you a range of answers; some technical/theoretical, most probably about perceived future value (speculation). But in a world with hundreds of exchanges and buyers and sellers, it's not important what any one person perceives. You could give me a bitcoin and if I thought it was stupid and pointless, it wouldn't make it trade for less on an exchange.
 
It really does matter what people outside that consensus think. We're in the middle of a climate crisis and that consensus is burning as much energy as The Netherlands. Were it not for that, I'd leave the Ponzi schemers to it. But that is where we are. So the fact that the mountain of fictitious capital represents no real-world value at all matters. (And that ought to matter to those inside the 'consensus' - it means that the value can disappear as easily as it appeared.) As pointed out above, the energy usage actually gives the fucking thing a negative real-world value - we'd all be better off if it didn't exist at all.
 
The energy use issue is more dramatic and pressing. But you are fighting a scattershot assault on various fronts. It's difficult to discuss any specific element of the phenomenon.
 
The energy use issue is more dramatic and pressing. But you are fighting a scattershot assault on various fronts. It's difficult to discuss any specific element of the phenomenon.
Ok, to keep it simple, as a mass means of exchange it is utterly hopeless. Its inbuilt limits ensure that. So what is left is simply a speculation bubble. It only has value due to an enduring belief among enough people that its price will go up in the future.

I wouldn't care much about this except for its criminal waste of energy, which I will continue to mention regularly.
 
Ok, to keep it simple, as a mass means of exchange it is utterly hopeless. Its inbuilt limits ensure that. So what is left is simply a speculation bubble. It only has value due to an enduring belief among enough people that its price will go up in the future.

I wouldn't care much about this except for its criminal waste of energy, which I will continue to mention regularly.
Criminal waste of energy aside, an enduring belief in future value is all it needs surely? That's the only reason I have my pension invested in the stock market.
 
The fact that it makes no sense to you isn't terribly relevant. Bitcoin has made no sense to you for over a decade, and in that time has become extremely valuable to millions of people. Within that consensus it's not important what people outside that consensus think.
It’s not about it making sense to me specifically. The point is that if prices are going up rapidly, people generally don’t want to wait on their purchases, they want to get them sooner rather than later. High inflation is exactly the point that people are disincentivised to store money. In a way, that’s what high inflation is. That’s why investments have to have high yields — to compete with people using their money straight away. But what high yield does Bitcoin offer? Only its pyramid worth, which can crumble at any point. The idea that this is a counterweight to inflation is hopelessly idealistic.
 
Criminal waste of energy aside, an enduring belief in future value is all it needs surely? That's the only reason I have my pension invested in the stock market.
The stock market is real companies doing real things that generate real profits and this paying you real dividends. If people cease to believe in future value, all that will still be true. Prices will fall because they include an expectation of increased future dividends, but at some level, the payment of those dividends as they currently exist provide an underlying value.
 
Criminal waste of energy aside, an enduring belief in future value is all it needs surely? That's the only reason I have my pension invested in the stock market.
There is a crucial difference. The belief in future value is based solely on the belief that the value will go up. No fundamentals. No real-world value represented, either current or anticipated.
 
That’s why investments have to have high yields — to compete with people using their money straight away. But what high yield does Bitcoin offer? Only its pyramid worth, which can crumble at any point. The idea that this is a counterweight to inflation is hopelessly idealistic.
Some years ago someone said that bitcoin was either worthless or worth millions each. The idea being that it makes sense as a global reserve currency and the basis of a much more efficient digital economy/money system, but anything less than that is pointless and a failure. In that sense I think the whole thing is hopelessly idealistic.
 
The stock market is real companies doing real things that generate real profits and this paying you real dividends. If people cease to believe in future value, all that will still be true. Prices will fall because they include an expectation of increased future dividends, but at some level, the payment of those dividends as they currently exist provide an underlying value.
True, but as you know, the gap between real world things that companies do and equity values has widened to a yawning abyss. Most of us just want a return. There is huge amounts of money chasing the same investments. QE in many respects has caused this asset bubble. Perhaps bitcoin is a particularly frothy example.
 
Some years ago someone said that bitcoin was either worthless or worth millions each. The idea being that it makes sense as a global reserve currency and the basis of a much more efficient digital economy/money system, but anything less than that is pointless and a failure. In that sense I think the whole thing is hopelessly idealistic.
Ah the old gold reserve comparison. That's nonsense on stilts as well.

And how would it be an improvement. What exactly is the problem with fiat money that bitcoin is supposed to solve?
 
True, but as you know, the gap between real world things that companies do and equity values has widened to a yawning abyss. Most of us just want a return. There is huge amounts of money chasing the same investments. QE in many respects has caused this asset bubble. Perhaps bitcoin is a particularly frothy example.
I agree with you btw about QE driving asset bubbles. But that's a separate argument, I suggest. Point about bitcoin is that most of its current capitalisation hasn't come from QE or anywhere else. It's simply a case of adding zeros to numbers.

The Dutch tulip bubble was similar. Most of the outrageous prices were promises to pay that were never actually paid.
 
The Dutch tulip bubble was similar. Most of the outrageous prices were promises to pay that were never actually paid.
The tulip bubble is held up as a characature of speculative bubbles, but in truth it was a much smaller and more localised epiphenomenon of a new and profitable market for flowers. One that is worth billions today.
 
It's not a caricature of speculative bubbles. It was a speculative bubble, one that lasted for a few months before utterly collapsing. I do accept that it's not exactly analogous, but it can still be instructive. The point of the comparison here was that the nominal value of individual bulbs in fact never materialised beyond a theoretical value. Far less money was lost than was once assumed because what people actually did was take out options to buy them at some future date. The case of bitcoin is a little different but the result is the same - the nominal value of one trillion dollars that it reached recently is mostly not made up of money invested in bitcoin - it is mostly a revaluation upwards of existing bitcoin that haven't changed hands.
 
True, but as you know, the gap between real world things that companies do and equity values has widened to a yawning abyss. Most of us just want a return. There is huge amounts of money chasing the same investments. QE in many respects has caused this asset bubble. Perhaps bitcoin is a particularly frothy example.
Depends on the company. The more extreme high yield companies like Imperial Brands have a valuation that is about ten times their current annual dividend. I don’t think you can say that reflects a chasm between what it does and what its worth. On average, UK FTSE 350 companies are more like 30 times their dividend. Again, that doesn’t particularly seem unreasonable.
 
Ok, to keep it simple, as a mass means of exchange it is utterly hopeless. Its inbuilt limits ensure that. So what is left is simply a speculation bubble. It only has value due to an enduring belief among enough people that its price will go up in the future.

I wouldn't care much about this except for its criminal waste of energy, which I will continue to mention regularly.
The energy use argument isn’t as binary as many in the mainstream media claim. Loads of mining collectives use renewable sources of energy (approx 39%) and for those that don’t, there are moves towards making it greener. Kevin O’Leary, Michael Saylor et al are also in discussion with US miners about their energy usage and the recent council proposal between them, Elon Musk and Michael Saylor are looking in to how to improvement things in the US. While the council may go against the principles of decentralisation it will be interesting to see if/when they come up with anything positive.

As for bitcoin being a speculation bubble, the huge influx of institutional investment in the last 6 months, the 8 (and counting) proposed EFTs under review by the SEC (one by One River which intends to be carbon neutral) and Coinbase being listed on the NASDAQ (several other exchanges in the process of being listed also), that argument is doesn’t really hold water anymore. It’s certainly volatile, but what new asset class isn’t in it’s infancy?

I’m obv an advocate of it so I am biased, but I do see the real benefits of crypto in the developing world, loads of projects helping people. And governments are just printing £ & $ as a solution to every problem with little thought about the long term consequences, you can’t just keep printing cash... it’s madness.

That’s the bubble imho, the one that will blow up and wreck everything - just like it has many times before.
 
Until the world has a surplus of renewable energy, it’s complete nonsense to suggest that diverting what it has into this pointless alt-right ideology is “green”. Besides, 61% of the entire energy use of the Netherlands is still a fuck of a lot of CO2 being pumped into the air for nothing.
 
If that renewable energy wasn't being used by miners, it'd be used by other industries/people in place of fossil fuels.

And to the extent that the UK is representative of the western world (who produce either directly or via china/east asian production the majority of CO2 emissions) we are about to completely fuck our national grid and local substation level infra by trying to switch to electric cars and electric based heating. Rest of the world is going the same way with cars, I have no idea how many other places in the world need to switch significant amounts of energy use away from natural gas/propane/oil heating systems to electric ones. Last thing we need is another big drain on the electricity we can produce.
I realise it's an international problem which complicates things when considering electricity production at a practical level but the principle is clear - to move away from the age of oil and coal without reducing our energy consumption (and by proxy our standard of living) we need a fuckton of electricity, and something so wasteful as bitcoin (or any proof of work crypto) needs to be left behind.

And governments are just printing £ & $ as a solution to every problem with little thought about the long term consequences, you can’t just keep printing cash... it’s madness.

This is a really, really simplistic view of what is happening. Printing money has been done to solve specific problems - in 2008/9 it was liquidity in the banking system, recently it's been this pandemic thingy and the need to keep money flowing around the economy whilst actual production drops massively. What would you have done to pay for 80% of the wages of people who got support under the furlough or self-employed support schemes?

Then the characterisation of simply printing money is wrong at a technical level, in a way that genuinely matters. QE is achieved by having the bank of england lend the UK goverment money. This money will, over time, be repaid and destroyed. It's setup as a temporary increase in the money supply and is not just printing money as a result.
As for long term results, how long do you want? Japan has been doing this for 30 odd years without ruining the Yen or the Japanese economy (I mean it's constantly talked about being in a bad state and just about to fall over, but it hasn't really fallen over, or at least no more or less so than other places).

Over the long term you need to increase money supply to account for a growing population and economy, and between this and a "normal" level of inflation any increases made in the money supply as interventions in the economy are effectively reduced over time. Today we might need - a made up figure of £1tn at a given speed of circulation to manage the UK's economic transactions, but in 10-20 years time when the population has increased by say 25% we need £1.25tn at the same speed of circulation. If today we "print" £0.25tn to get us out of a hole, and it never gets repaid or destroyed, then in 10-20 years time, the increase in money supply will no longer represent an oversupply of money.

Long term any inflationary problems caused by QE are reduced or eradicated by the passage of time. To believe that there is little thought about the long term consequences of this is simply wrong.


Now personally I'd rather inject money into the economy through keynesian measures, but this would be funded in the same way - borrowing money and repaying it later. I'd want to sort out the tax system as well but when the private sector's chips are down, borrowing to invest and repay later is the way to react quickly, and with a working tax system you would still have recessions that need to be managed through borrowing and investing.


One of many issues I have with BTC specifically and crypto generally as a currency. If you think BTC could be a currency for the developing world, what happens when the population increases 50% but the amount of currency can't be increased, and the amount of transactions and therefore speed of circulation of currency is fixed?
 
The energy use argument isn’t as binary as many in the mainstream media claim. Loads of mining collectives use renewable sources of energy (approx 39%) and for those that don’t, there are moves towards making it greener. Kevin O’Leary, Michael Saylor et al are also in discussion with US miners about their energy usage and the recent council proposal between them, Elon Musk and Michael Saylor are looking in to how to improvement things in the US. While the council may go against the principles of decentralisation it will be interesting to see if/when they come up with anything positive.

As for bitcoin being a speculation bubble, the huge influx of institutional investment in the last 6 months, the 8 (and counting) proposed EFTs under review by the SEC (one by One River which intends to be carbon neutral) and Coinbase being listed on the NASDAQ (several other exchanges in the process of being listed also), that argument is doesn’t really hold water anymore. It’s certainly volatile, but what new asset class isn’t in it’s infancy?

I’m obv an advocate of it so I am biased, but I do see the real benefits of crypto in the developing world, loads of projects helping people. And governments are just printing £ & $ as a solution to every problem with little thought about the long term consequences, you can’t just keep printing cash... it’s madness.

That’s the bubble imho, the one that will blow up and wreck everything - just like it has many times before.
Institutions putting money into it doesn't magically stop it being a speculation bubble.

BigTom has dealt with the rest of your post.
 
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