Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[littlebabyjesus]

There's a strange resistance to seeing Russia as anything other than a reactive actor here - if those plans (sorry, "forecasts") are fake, then what on earth do you imagine Russia has in mind for Ukraine?

Not at all. This isn't a comment on Russia and its plans. It's a comment on information sources and what we should or shouldn't just proceed with discussing on an assumption that it's true.

This isn't a binary choice - believe it/disbelieve it. It's an evaluation the trustworthiness of something one state is saying about another state it's at war with. We should assume that they're making shit up unless we have reason to think otherwise. I don't see reason to think otherwise here.

 

[Rimbaud]

Not at all. This isn't a comment on Russia and its plans. It's a comment on information sources and what we should or shouldn't just proceed with discussing on an assumption that it's true.

This isn't a binary choice - believe it/disbelieve it. It's an evaluation the trustworthiness of something one state is saying about another state it's at war with. We should assume that they're making shit up unless we have reason to think otherwise. I don't see reason to think otherwise here.

There is plenty of corroborating information to conclude it is certainly one endgame scenario Russia has in mind.

If Ukraine says the sky is blue we don't disbelieve it when we can corroborate it ourselves.

 

[Pickman's model]

Obviously giving to Poland isn't going to happen but they did literally approach Poland to divide up Ukraine, that is documented, so it is something they have in mind. It makes sense from the Kremlin perspective because it fits in with the idea that Ukraine is a fake nation - western Ukraine is obviously not Russian so seeking to divide it amongst other countries is consistent with this ideology which is an important part of the thinking behind invading Ukraine.

Giving Transcarpathia to Hungary is very plausible however.

All nations are fake nations

 

[Rimbaud]

All nations are fake nations

Of course, this is why Russia's idea that Ukraine is a fake nation is nonsense. If Ukrainians believe they are a nation then they are a nation.

 

[Rimbaud]

There's a strange resistance to seeing Russia as anything other than a reactive actor here - if those plans (sorry, "forecasts") are fake, then what on earth do you imagine Russia has in mind for Ukraine?

I note that most of the people seeing the west arming Ukraine as the problem were also confidently predicting Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine earlier in this thread.

Suspect with Trump elected and a real possibility of finding out what Russian victory will mean in the coming decade, many of the people on this thread stuck viewing the world with a paradigm from 20 years ago when China had a GDP equal to Italy will have a rude awakening.

I'd add to this - in addition to reluctance to view Russia as anything but reactive and passive, there's also a disinterest in understanding Russia's perspective.

If you read Putin's essay at the beginning of the war about the historical unity of Russia and Ukraine you would not find the idea of dividing up the parts of Ukraine hardest to claim are really Russian far-fetched in the slightest, the war is about the negation of Ukraine as a nation and concept. A lot of Russian rhetoric on the matter concedes that western Ukraine may not be truly Russian but nor is it Ukrainian, it's some mongrel mix which is basically Polish and Hungarian. There are shades of this in Putin's essay where he claims Ukraine is a Polish invention.

I wonder how many people centring the west's role even bothered to read that essay to see Russia's official justification for themselves? That people find the idea of dividing up west Ukraine hard to believe speaks volumes of how little they understand Russian thinking.

Also, do people really think Putin has no interest in restoring Russian hegemony over Eastern Europe?

 

[The39thStep]

Hands up if you have read Putin's essay class.

Homework for those that havent

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

en.kremlin.ru

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Hands up if you have read Putin's essay class.

Homework for those that havent

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

en.kremlin.ru

I've read it now. Oi'll give it foive. Minus foive.

 

[chilango]

It's not a crazy as it might first appear. There are undoubtedly Hungarian ultranationalists who want to annex/liberate the Hungarian speaking bit of Ukraine. And whilst Poland as is will not be entertaining any of Putin's plans, the history of the ethnic cleansing and expulsion of Poles from the Lviv region (Polish majority population not all that long ago) could easily be weaponised pretty quickly. The transient and arbitrary nature of borders is often forgotten.

 

[kebabking]

That it has historical precedent is why it's been floated - the story of the old woman living in a single village all her life who, through the vagaries of moving borders, has been a Pole, a Ukrainian, and a Belorussian, is well known.

The attraction - as a 'doomsday' option - is that it would give the receiving states a buffer state between them and the Russian controlled zone/entity, and the Russians are seeking to lure them in in with that as the bait - that while they might prefer Ukraine to remain as a single, western orientated state, if that isn't an available option, this would be better than a single Ukrainian entirely under Russian control.

We'll see. Personally I'm incredibly pessimistic, not just about Ukraine, but about all of Eastern Europe - I'm reasonably confident that without a sea change in European support for Ukraine the UAF will collapse in the next 18 months, that 20 million Ukrainians will seek to escape to Poland and the other border states, and that by 2027/28, the Russians will start to attack the Baltic states - and that Moldova will be gone by then...

In failing to stop Russia in Ukraine for fear of 'escalation', Europe has simply ensured that Russia will escalate far from the borders of Ukraine.

 

[The39thStep]

It's not a crazy as it might first appear. There are undoubtedly Hungarian ultranationalists who want to annex/liberate the Hungarian speaking bit of Ukraine. And whilst Poland as is will not be entertaining any of Putin's plans, the history of the ethnic cleansing and expulsion of Poles from the Lviv region (Polish majority population not all that long ago) could easily be weaponised pretty quickly. The transient and arbitrary nature of borders is often forgotten.

A lot of people forget that the Polish were the first victims of Ukraine's ultra nationalists.

 

[gosub]

Hands up if you have read Putin's essay class.

Homework for those that havent

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

en.kremlin.ru

Was covered quote lot on this site after the Tucker Carlson 'interview'. But he has spouted that bollocks since Yeltsins day ..its still bollocks

 

[The39thStep]

Was covered quote lot on this site after the Tucker Carlson 'interview'. But he has spouted that bollocks since Yeltsins day ..its still bollocks

I only posted it after the late evening ‘you must read this to understand Putin’ thing . I don’t mind reading what he says however there are few if any politicians , state leaders that I take at face value.

 

[gosub]

I only posted it after the late evening ‘you must read this to understand Putin’ thing . I don’t mind reading what he says however there are few if any politicians , state leaders that I take at face value.

Same as..though the Tucker Carlson outing of that bit of debate here tended towards 'how did he not see that coming?'. Elsewhere on more Trumpian corners of the Internet it was considered 'news'
Given recent events can see why resurfaced...but was bollocks when he said it,still bollocks now but Trump will soon be President a self proclaimed genius who cited airfields with regards the US war of independence

 

[WouldBe]

Czech and Polish diplomats already called the whistle on being approached by Russia to divide up Ukraine

That would be stupid by Putin as it would bring NATO closer to Russia.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

It's not a crazy as it might first appear. There are undoubtedly Hungarian ultranationalists who want to annex/liberate the Hungarian speaking bit of Ukraine. And whilst Poland as is will not be entertaining any of Putin's plans, the history of the ethnic cleansing and expulsion of Poles from the Lviv region (Polish majority population not all that long ago) could easily be weaponised pretty quickly. The transient and arbitrary nature of borders is often forgotten.

I don't think many in Eastern Europe will want to open that whole can of worms. Poland, Germany, Kaliningrad, Belarus, Finland - massive territorial claims can be made, but there is no public pressure worth talking about and no refugee populations living in camps for decades and decades. All the displaced peoples are settled and relatively integrated.

 

[chilango]

I don't think many in Eastern Europe will want to open that whole can of worms. Poland, Germany, Kaliningrad, Belarus, Finland - massive territorial claims can be made, but there is no public pressure worth talking about and no refugee populations living in camps for decades and decades. All the displaced peoples are settled and relatively integrated.

Remember what Putin's original justification for invading was.

Transnistria is highly likely to be next on the list (putting Moldova in question).

The Russian speakers in Latvia? and then the rest of the Baltics?

The can is open and the worms are increasingly in Government.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Remember what Putin's original justification for invading was.

Transnistria is highly likely to be next on the list (putting Moldova in question).

The Russian speakers in Latvia? and then the rest of the Baltics?

The can is open and the worms are increasingly in Government.

I thought it was just a Special Military Operation.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Remember what Putin's original justification for invading was.

Transnistria is highly likely to be next on the list (putting Moldova in question).

The Russian speakers in Latvia? and then the rest of the Baltics?

The can is open and the worms are increasingly in Government.

All true, but that's Putin and his supporters, not the other peoples of Europe.

 

[chilango]

All true, but that's Putin and his supporters, not the other peoples of Europe.

Indeed.

But who's doing the invading?

 

[A380]

All nations are fake nations

What about about Terry Nation?

 

[The39thStep]

Quite a stark graphic from the FT

 

[teqniq]

Archived FT article on how Russia is duping Yemenis into fighting in the 'special military operation':

Russia recruits Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine

 

[Pickman's model]

Remember what Putin's original justification for invading was.

Transnistria is highly likely to be next on the list (putting Moldova in question).

The Russian speakers in Latvia? and then the rest of the Baltics?

The can is open and the worms are increasingly in Government.

I think transnistria has been scrubbed from the list, as you'd do too if you consider that there's likely to be some resistance to Russian rule should putin manage to expand his grip on Ukraine. Do you honestly think Russian forces are up to fighting an insurgency in western Ukraine and another one in transnistria/Moldova? For me the notion russia's going to go on and on invading places seems such utter bilge it's amazing. Leaving aside the question of nato under trump, there's the issue of Russia gaining a military force which can turn its hand to tricky things like successful counterinsurgency. A wholly different skill set from having soldiers attack enemy positions.

 

[The39thStep]

Unlike Pinner and Aslin who were at one time in Azov and the Georgian Legion respectively this bloke was/is in the Ukranian International Legion.

 

[Silas Loom]

About to be a few more Brits in Ukraine, speculates Le Monde.

Discussions over sending European troops to Ukraine reignited

With the prospect of American disengagement from Kyiv following Donald Trump's return to the White House, Paris and London are not ruling out leading a military coalition in Ukraine.

www.lemonde.fr

 

[TopCat]

Unlike Pinner and Aslin who were at one time in Azov and the Georgian Legion respectively this bloke was/is in the Ukranian International Legion.

Fair play to the bloke. Not a fascist.

For a big European war like this it’s surprising how few internationalists there are. Paid soldiers yes but not so many foreign volunteers.

 

[The39thStep]

Fair play to the bloke. Not a fascist.

For a big European war like this it’s surprising how few internationalists there are. Paid soldiers yes but not so many foreign volunteers.

I don't think Pinner or Aslin were fascists btw, using the Georgian Legion initially and then Azov was just an easy way to get around the stricter rules on foreign fighters after the 2014 war in which there were tens of thousands. I would have thought that nearly all foreign volunteers are paid or receive some remuneration tbh unless they are funded purely by donations or benefactors.

 

[TopCat]

Radio 4 had a Ukrainian officer being interviewed this morning. Bigging up this bloke but also saying training was a luxury they couldn’t indulge in now so foreign ex army would always be welcomed.

 

[TopCat]

About to be a few more Brits in Ukraine, speculates Le Monde.

Discussions over sending European troops to Ukraine reignited

With the prospect of American disengagement from Kyiv following Donald Trump's return to the White House, Paris and London are not ruling out leading a military coalition in Ukraine.

www.lemonde.fr

A French / UK joint force taking on the Russians.

Is this just to distract from Barnier’s difficult decisions? The idea is barking

 

[Rimbaud]

I think transnistria has been scrubbed from the list, as you'd do too if you consider that there's likely to be some resistance to Russian rule should putin manage to expand his grip on Ukraine. Do you honestly think Russian forces are up to fighting an insurgency in western Ukraine and another one in transnistria/Moldova? For me the notion russia's going to go on and on invading places seems such utter bilge it's amazing. Leaving aside the question of nato under trump, there's the issue of Russia gaining a military force which can turn its hand to tricky things like successful counterinsurgency. A wholly different skill set from having soldiers attack enemy positions.

Transnistria is already basically occupied by Russian military with a friendly pro-Russia government.

Moldovan population without Transnistria is less than 2 million people. Ukraine's pre-war population was 41 million. Ukraine's area is also around 18x the size of Moldova. Similar situation with the Baltic States being relatively tiny both in size and population.

Also it isn't really just Russia is it? China is pretending to be neutral but you can get bet they had a hand in getting North Korea to send troops. If Russia wins in Ukraine you can bet on more open and brazen Chinese support for Russian rearmament as they become less dependent on trade with western countries.

I said earlier in the thread some people are stuck viewing the world through the paradigm of the Iraq War era and the US unipolar moment. But that was 20 years ago and the world was very different then - China's total GDP size had only just overtaken Italy's in 2003. We are already in a multipolar world. Russia having the confidence for all out war with Ukraine would have been unthinkable 20 years ago and the rise of China is the main reason why.

An attack on the Baltics or Moldova, and a Bosnian crisis (probably spreading to Kosovo) manufactured by Putin ally and Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik is also likely shortly after Russian victory in Ukraine. Baltic states is the least likely of all these and will probably come last, but if NATO reaches a point where Putin feels it is unlikely to enforce article 5 then he will seek to prove that NATO is over as this would finally restore Russian hegemony over Eastern Europe after a 4 decade interregnum.

This won't happen immediately after Russian victory but it won't be more than a decade down the line either. Letting Putin win in Ukraine will not bring peace.