Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[littlebabyjesus]

There's a strange resistance to seeing Russia as anything other than a reactive actor here - if those plans (sorry, "forecasts") are fake, then what on earth do you imagine Russia has in mind for Ukraine?

Not at all. This isn't a comment on Russia and its plans. It's a comment on information sources and what we should or shouldn't just proceed with discussing on an assumption that it's true.

This isn't a binary choice - believe it/disbelieve it. It's an evaluation the trustworthiness of something one state is saying about another state it's at war with. We should assume that they're making shit up unless we have reason to think otherwise. I don't see reason to think otherwise here.

 

[Rimbaud]

Not at all. This isn't a comment on Russia and its plans. It's a comment on information sources and what we should or shouldn't just proceed with discussing on an assumption that it's true.

This isn't a binary choice - believe it/disbelieve it. It's an evaluation the trustworthiness of something one state is saying about another state it's at war with. We should assume that they're making shit up unless we have reason to think otherwise. I don't see reason to think otherwise here.

There is plenty of corroborating information to conclude it is certainly one endgame scenario Russia has in mind.

If Ukraine says the sky is blue we don't disbelieve it when we can corroborate it ourselves.

 

[Pickman's model]

Obviously giving to Poland isn't going to happen but they did literally approach Poland to divide up Ukraine, that is documented, so it is something they have in mind. It makes sense from the Kremlin perspective because it fits in with the idea that Ukraine is a fake nation - western Ukraine is obviously not Russian so seeking to divide it amongst other countries is consistent with this ideology which is an important part of the thinking behind invading Ukraine.

Giving Transcarpathia to Hungary is very plausible however.

All nations are fake nations

 

[Rimbaud]

All nations are fake nations

Of course, this is why Russia's idea that Ukraine is a fake nation is nonsense. If Ukrainians believe they are a nation then they are a nation.

 

[Rimbaud]

There's a strange resistance to seeing Russia as anything other than a reactive actor here - if those plans (sorry, "forecasts") are fake, then what on earth do you imagine Russia has in mind for Ukraine?

I note that most of the people seeing the west arming Ukraine as the problem were also confidently predicting Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine earlier in this thread.

Suspect with Trump elected and a real possibility of finding out what Russian victory will mean in the coming decade, many of the people on this thread stuck viewing the world with a paradigm from 20 years ago when China had a GDP equal to Italy will have a rude awakening.

I'd add to this - in addition to reluctance to view Russia as anything but reactive and passive, there's also a disinterest in understanding Russia's perspective.

If you read Putin's essay at the beginning of the war about the historical unity of Russia and Ukraine you would not find the idea of dividing up the parts of Ukraine hardest to claim are really Russian far-fetched in the slightest, the war is about the negation of Ukraine as a nation and concept. A lot of Russian rhetoric on the matter concedes that western Ukraine may not be truly Russian but nor is it Ukrainian, it's some mongrel mix which is basically Polish and Hungarian. There are shades of this in Putin's essay where he claims Ukraine is a Polish invention.

I wonder how many people centring the west's role even bothered to read that essay to see Russia's official justification for themselves? That people find the idea of dividing up west Ukraine hard to believe speaks volumes of how little they understand Russian thinking.

Also, do people really think Putin has no interest in restoring Russian hegemony over Eastern Europe?

 

[The39thStep]

Hands up if you have read Putin's essay class.

Homework for those that havent

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

en.kremlin.ru

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Hands up if you have read Putin's essay class.

Homework for those that havent

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

en.kremlin.ru

I've read it now. Oi'll give it foive. Minus foive.

 

[chilango]

It's not a crazy as it might first appear. There are undoubtedly Hungarian ultranationalists who want to annex/liberate the Hungarian speaking bit of Ukraine. And whilst Poland as is will not be entertaining any of Putin's plans, the history of the ethnic cleansing and expulsion of Poles from the Lviv region (Polish majority population not all that long ago) could easily be weaponised pretty quickly. The transient and arbitrary nature of borders is often forgotten.

 

[kebabking]

That it has historical precedent is why it's been floated - the story of the old woman living in a single village all her life who, through the vagaries of moving borders, has been a Pole, a Ukrainian, and a Belorussian, is well known.

The attraction - as a 'doomsday' option - is that it would give the receiving states a buffer state between them and the Russian controlled zone/entity, and the Russians are seeking to lure them in in with that as the bait - that while they might prefer Ukraine to remain as a single, western orientated state, if that isn't an available option, this would be better than a single Ukrainian entirely under Russian control.

We'll see. Personally I'm incredibly pessimistic, not just about Ukraine, but about all of Eastern Europe - I'm reasonably confident that without a sea change in European support for Ukraine the UAF will collapse in the next 18 months, that 20 million Ukrainians will seek to escape to Poland and the other border states, and that by 2027/28, the Russians will start to attack the Baltic states - and that Moldova will be gone by then...

In failing to stop Russia in Ukraine for fear of 'escalation', Europe has simply ensured that Russia will escalate far from the borders of Ukraine.

 

[The39thStep]

It's not a crazy as it might first appear. There are undoubtedly Hungarian ultranationalists who want to annex/liberate the Hungarian speaking bit of Ukraine. And whilst Poland as is will not be entertaining any of Putin's plans, the history of the ethnic cleansing and expulsion of Poles from the Lviv region (Polish majority population not all that long ago) could easily be weaponised pretty quickly. The transient and arbitrary nature of borders is often forgotten.

A lot of people forget that the Polish were the first victims of Ukraine's ultra nationalists.

 

[gosub]

Hands up if you have read Putin's essay class.

Homework for those that havent

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

en.kremlin.ru

Was covered quote lot on this site after the Tucker Carlson 'interview'. But he has spouted that bollocks since Yeltsins day ..its still bollocks

 

[The39thStep]

Was covered quote lot on this site after the Tucker Carlson 'interview'. But he has spouted that bollocks since Yeltsins day ..its still bollocks

I only posted it after the late evening ‘you must read this to understand Putin’ thing . I don’t mind reading what he says however there are few if any politicians , state leaders that I take at face value.