Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Bahnhof Strasse]

And he'd like Moldova too, cos he's keen to have Russia border NATO as much as possible.

 

[TopCat]

I think they will press on and attempt to take Odessa.

 

[DownwardDog]

Based on what?


To be clear, I think there is an argument for 'freezing' the conflict - not one I subscribe to, because I think the terms that Russia would impose would be 'get Ukraine, and keep their army intact' - but I accept that it's there, but I don't see any evidence or likelihood that Russian domination (military, political, economic) would stop at the areas you've suggested, and lots of evidence to the contrary.

They can't take Kharkov which is a 10 minute fucking bus ride from the (current) Russian border so it's a bit of a stretch to imagine they are going to rampage all the way east to Lviv.

Putin would really like Odessa (Catherine's city and all that) as it would help him sell the immense cost of the conflict domestically. Absent a total Ukrainian rout, which might happen it they continue to refuse to pass the new mobilisation legislation, I don't see how that's acheivable by military means.

 

[DaveCinzano]

...east to Lviv

I hope your navigator is in charge of the map!

 

[two sheds]

And whatever Ukraine do Russia can keep bombing the shit out of Ukrainian cities.

 

[Dogsauce]

No chance, call it a day and cut your losses. Donbass and Crimea aren't coming back but at least you get to keep Odessa and access to the sea. Continue and you lose that too.

The best way to stop a bully from continuing their ways is to give them everything they want.

 

[existentialist]

Putin would like Odessa and the whole coast but I seriously doubt he wants western Ukraine the ex Polish part. Kharkov perhaps, Kiev unlikely, Lviv no way.

Kharkiv.

 

[kebabking]

They can't take Kharkov which is a 10 minute fucking bus ride from the (current) Russian border so it's a bit of a stretch to imagine they are going to rampage all the way east to Lviv.

Putin would really like Odessa (Catherine's city and all that) as it would really help him sell the immense cost of the conflict domestically. Absent a total Ukrainian rout, which might happen it they continue to refuse to pass the new mobilisation legislation, I don't that's acheivable by military means.

I didn't say military victory/overpowerment, I said political, diplomatic victory - which brings about military overpowerment.

In the 'negotiations' in 2022 Russia's terms were the scrapping by Ukraine of it's deep fires and air force, it's heavy weapons, and it's tanks. Once Ukraine does that, all it has are AK-47's, which have a historically poor record against even against whatever the Russian Army has left.

Throw a fence around it. Disarm it. Cut the phone line. once that is done, even an old, injured, fleabitten Bear will do the business...

 

[Pickman's model]

I hope your navigator is in charge of the map!

it is in keeping with the notion that putin seeks world domination. a swift rampage across the bering strait, down through alaska and canada and into the contiguous 48, a hop, skip and a jump to iceland, down through scotland, wales and england, under the english channel and catch the europeans from behind. then it's full steam eastwards for lviv.

 

[Dogsauce]

I think they will press on and attempt to take Odessa.

That would mean getting back across the river at Kherson. Can’t see that happening.

 

[The39thStep]

I didn't say military victory/overpowerment, I said political, diplomatic victory - which brings about military overpowerment.

In the 'negotiations' in 2022 Russia's terms were the scrapping by Ukraine of it's deep fires and air force, it's heavy weapons, and it's tanks. Once Ukraine does that, all it has are AK-47's, which have a historically poor record against even against whatever the Russian Army has left.

Throw a fence around it. Disarm it. Cut the phone line. once that is done, even an old, injured, fleabitten Bear will do the business...

 

[Ax^]

No chance, call it a day and cut your losses. Donbass and Crimea aren't coming back but at least you get to keep Odessa and access to the sea. Continue and you lose that too.

aye giving in to the other side during a war was the only way to victory

 

[Rimbaud]

Based on what?


To be clear, I think there is an argument for 'freezing' the conflict - not one I subscribe to, because I think the terms that Russia would impose would be 'get Ukraine, and keep their army intact' - but I accept that it's there, but I don't see any evidence or likelihood that Russian domination (military, political, economic) would stop at the areas you've suggested, and lots of evidence to the contrary.

There is a case for giving up the currently occupied territory on the condition that independent Ukraine gets the security guarantee of NATO membership and presence as well as accelerated EU accession and a programme of reconstruction; but there's no way Putin would agree to this as he would only accept a ceasefire that leaves open the option of taking another bite later.

 

[DownwardDog]

aye giving in to the other side during a war was the only way to victory

There is no "victory" to be had here for Ukraine. The only variables now are the exact position of the line in the blood-soaked mud that marks the border with Russia and the level of devastation in what's left of the country.

 

[kebabking]

There is no "victory" to be had here for Ukraine. The only variables now are the exact position of the line in the blood-soaked mud that marks the border with Russia and the level of devastation in what's left of the country.

Nah, that's ridiculously simplistic given their situation and history.

If the conflict ends (or, perhaps more accurately - this phase of the conflict ends...) with Ukraine losing the territory the Russians currently occupy, but within Ukr joining NATO and the EU, and the Russians being then shut out of rump Ukr for the foreseeable, then that's a victory compared to what defeat looked like in Feb 22.

If it ends (etc..) with Russia retaining the territories it's already got, and achieving a military/political/economic dominance over the rest of Ukr with that cemented by treaty, then that's a defeat.

 

[ID47]

How come one is a traitor fighting for Russia but not a traitor fighting alongside neo Nazis for Ukraine? (Or fighting for the genocidal zionist entity for that matter)

British traitors fighting for Putin exposed and branded 'an absolute disgrace'

Ben Stimson and Aiden Minnis are the first Brits known to be fighting for Russia and have been heavily criticised by a former British Army commander

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[kebabking]

How come one is a traitor fighting for Russia but not a traitor fighting alongside neo Nazis for Ukraine? (Or fighting for the genocidal zionist entity for that matter)

British traitors fighting for Putin exposed and branded 'an absolute disgrace'

Ben Stimson and Aiden Minnis are the first Brits known to be fighting for Russia and have been heavily criticised by a former British Army commander

www.mirror.co.uk

I mean, I don't recall Ukraine using chemical or radiological weapons in the UK...

 

[nogojones]

How come one is a traitor fighting for Russia but not a traitor fighting alongside neo Nazis for Ukraine? (Or fighting for the genocidal zionist entity for that matter)

British traitors fighting for Putin exposed and branded 'an absolute disgrace'

Ben Stimson and Aiden Minnis are the first Brits known to be fighting for Russia and have been heavily criticised by a former British Army commander

www.mirror.co.uk

Minnis sounds like a confused fella. As an ex-NF member, having done time for racially aggravated assault, surely he should have joined those Ukrainian Nazis?

 

[DownwardDog]

Nah, that's ridiculously simplistic given their situation and history.

If the conflict ends (or, perhaps more accurately - this phase of the conflict ends...) with Ukraine losing the territory the Russians currently occupy, but within Ukr joining NATO and the EU, and the Russians being then shut out of rump Ukr for the foreseeable, then that's a victory compared to what defeat looked like in Feb 22.

If it ends (etc..) with Russia retaining the territories it's already got, and achieving a military/political/economic dominance over the rest of Ukr with that cemented by treaty, then that's a defeat.

Article 10 of the NATO treaty precludes Ukrainian membership of NATO as they have a (very) unresolved territorial dispute.

Economic reality precludes EU membership as it is a failed state and demographic catastrophe.

 

[cupid_stunt]

How come one is a traitor fighting for Russia but not a traitor fighting alongside neo Nazis for Ukraine? (Or fighting for the genocidal zionist entity for that matter)

British traitors fighting for Putin exposed and branded 'an absolute disgrace'

Ben Stimson and Aiden Minnis are the first Brits known to be fighting for Russia and have been heavily criticised by a former British Army commander

www.mirror.co.uk

Oh, I know this one, Russia is the aggressor here, having illegally invaded a peaceful neighbour, breaking international law by starting an illegal war, those on the Ukraine side are trying to defend the country, that's the innocent victim here.

HTH, eejit.

 

[Spymaster]

How come one is a traitor fighting for Russia but not a traitor fighting alongside neo Nazis for Ukraine? (Or fighting for the genocidal zionist entity for that matter)

British traitors fighting for Putin exposed and branded 'an absolute disgrace'

Ben Stimson and Aiden Minnis are the first Brits known to be fighting for Russia and have been heavily criticised by a former British Army commander

www.mirror.co.uk

Not sure if they're traitors, per se.

They're certainly cunts.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Not sure if they're traitors, per se.

No, but seems this is what they've done:

"The Foreign Enlistment Act 1870 makes it illegal to join the armed forces of a country fighting a state at peace with Britain"

Also will be breaking more recent terrorism legislation.

They're certainly cunts.

100%

 

[Chz]

Article 10 of the NATO treaty precludes Ukrainian membership of NATO as they have a (very) unresolved territorial dispute.

Economic reality precludes EU membership as it is a failed state and demographic catastrophe.

I tend to agree. Their goal would be a treaty with NATO and the EU. I can't see them joining either of them in the next decade.

 

[Rob Ray]

People still banging on about how Ukraine should "cut its losses" as though Russia is currently offering this as an option.

 

[editor]

And whatever Ukraine do Russia can keep bombing the shit out of Ukrainian cities.

Let's hope that one day that these war criminals face justice.

 

[The39thStep]

I tend to agree. Their goal would be a treaty with NATO and the EU. I can't see them joining either of them in the next decade.

The pathway for Ukraine has already been circulated and its based on the Albania/North Macedonian one . Michel , the President of the European Council says could be concluded by 2030. Not sure whose joining process took the longest but Portugal's was over 7 years I think , and some of the former Eastern States was 6 years . What may prolong the process is that the EU want to change the type of decisions that require consensus and one of those is EU enlargement. There are clearly some tensions between existing EU member states that will need managing but where there's a will there's always backhander.

 

[ska invita]

If the conflict ends (or, perhaps more accurately - this phase of the conflict ends...) with Ukraine losing the territory the Russians currently occupy, but within Ukr joining NATO and the EU, and the Russians being then shut out of rump Ukr for the foreseeable, then that's a victory compared to what defeat looked like in Feb 22.

Ukr joining NATO and the EU remains to be seen, I expect an arrangement will happen despite the hurdles, and a new militarised border created. That will certainly be enough of a victory for the expansionists and everyone who has bought up Ukrainian land and assets....for Ukrainian people, not so much. Ukraine being split and claimed by two competing imperial blocks is no victory but it is the nature of the violent world we live in I guess.

Let's hope that one day that these war criminals face justice.

Not a good record for that, war criminals whether ours or theirs seem to do just fine in this world.

 

[ID47]

Oh, I know this one, Russia is the aggressor here, having illegally invaded a peaceful neighbour, breaking international law by starting an illegal war, those on the Ukraine side are trying to defend the country, that's the innocent victim here.

HTH, eejit.

Sure but what has that got to do with treachery? Ukraine is not part of the UK, Israel is not part of the UK either, what about Afghanistan, Russia, Syria. I detect a certain bias in particular from the usual ex military on here.

 

[ID47]

Let's hope that one day that these war criminals face justice.

Ukraine war: Briton who joined Azov Regiment with far-right origins says they're not 'monsters and psychos'

Mark Ayres has spent the past two months in Ukraine after joining the Azov Regiment, which originated as a far-right paramilitary unit. The British Army veteran insists he has challenged some Azov fighters over their beliefs and those he has met are not "monsters and psychos".

news.sky.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sure but what has that got to do with treachery? Ukraine is not part of the UK, Israel is not part of the UK either, what about Afghanistan, Russia, Syria. I detect a certain bias in particular from the usual ex military on here.

It was explained in post #29,782, read and understand, it'll help you avoid coming across as a complete eejit.