steveo87
22/11/2022 - got a maths joke.
You're Jacob Reese Mogg and I demand my £5/3 guinneas!
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Ming
I shot a man in Reno...
Do you want to borrow my top hat old bean?
nogojones
spelling is overrated
Nothing to add to the thread, but going forward, if I have to directly address The39thStep I'll be going full dude.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Just a heads up - this is free as an e-book via Kobo
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Looks like some European countries think it's time to start suppling F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, it seems six countries in Europe have them, but they have to have US permission before they can be transferred, so the UK, Netherlands and France have come out with the idea of building an “international coalition” of support for supplying them.
I guess that basically means putting pressure on the US to agree to them being transferred, and indeed supplying some themselves, but out of those three countries it looks like only Netherlands has them, plus Greece, Belgium, Poland, Denmark and Portugal. SOURCE
I am sure the original idea was to supply soviet era fighters from former soviet states, as Ukraine already operate them, and then back-fill with more modern fighters, not sure why that's not being discussed.
www.theguardian.com
I guess that basically means putting pressure on the US to agree to them being transferred, and indeed supplying some themselves, but out of those three countries it looks like only Netherlands has them, plus Greece, Belgium, Poland, Denmark and Portugal. SOURCE
I am sure the original idea was to supply soviet era fighters from former soviet states, as Ukraine already operate them, and then back-fill with more modern fighters, not sure why that's not being discussed.
Russia-Ukraine war: Kyiv tells China it will not accept any peace plan involving loss of land to Russia – as it happened
Statement from Ukraine’s foreign ministry comes after talks with top Chinese envoy
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
Looks like some European countries think it's time to start suppling F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, it seems six countries in Europe have them, but they have to have US permission before they can be transferred, so the UK, Netherlands and France have come out with the idea of building an “international coalition” of support for supplying them.
I guess that basically means putting pressure on the US to agree to them being transferred, and indeed supplying some themselves, but out of those three countries it looks like only Netherlands has them, plus Greece, Belgium, Poland, Denmark and Portugal. SOURCE
I am sure the original idea was to supply soviet era fighters from former soviet states, as Ukraine already operate them, and then back-fill with more modern fighters, not sure why that's not being discussed.
Russia-Ukraine war: Kyiv tells China it will not accept any peace plan involving loss of land to Russia – as it happened
Statement from Ukraine’s foreign ministry comes after talks with top Chinese envoy
This seems more like a post-war activity. The only place Ukrainian F-16 crews could be trained right now is in the US as the European operators either rely on the US for type conversion of have closed their F-16 training pipelines completely.
Establishing a new F-16 conversion unit would take years whether it's in the UK or anywhere else. Apart from the aircraft; the syllabus, simulators and instructors all have to be generated.
The reason F-16 keeps getting wanked off over by Ukraine is that they are severely outgunned in the BVR arena by the Su-35/Adder combo. F-16/AIM-120 would bring them close to parity.
T & P
|-o-| (-o-) |-o-|
So, Putins’s much vaunted hypersonic untouchable wonder missile is nothing of the kind.Now, this is an interesting read about Ukraine's air defences, and explaining how they are being so successful, shooting down around 96-98% of Russian missiles, using what is described as 'Onion rings' defence - a layered air defence system that is like a series of onion rings of air defence capability.
The 'onion rings' of defences protecting Ukraine's cities from Russian missiles
Kremlin forces launched 18 missiles at Kyiv on Tuesday. All of them were shot down, Ukraine's air forces says. What behind the hugely successful air defences now protecting Ukraine's cities?news.sky.com
Oh dear, what a shame, never mind…
ska invita
back on the other side
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Russian Pantsir-S1 air defence system, Donetsk, meeting up with a HIMARS:
Probably need some WD-40 along with the Tcut to get that going again...
Probably need some WD-40 along with the Tcut to get that going again...
RedRedRose
Well-Known Member
Zambia, Senegal, the DR Congo, Uganda, Egypt and South Africa on peace missions. I imagine SA wants to move on from the recent accusations.
Six African nations to send peace mission to Russia, Ukraine
President Ramaphosa says he has held "separate telephone calls" with Putin and Zelensky, where he presented Africa's initiative.www.theeastafrican.co.ke
gosub
~#
I observed youth doing this the other day, took a good 5 minutes for a group to great each other
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Really need a list of who is offering to facilitate peace negotiations. China obviously but didn't Turkey suggest or put themselves forward?
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DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
No doubt Draken could do it (eventually) but none of this happens without US government approval. And if the US wanted to do it then they've already got two fully functioning F-16 driver factories at Luke and Tuscon in Arizona so why wouldn't they just put the Ukrainians through one of those?
DaveCinzano
WATCH OUT, GEORGE, HE'S GOT A SCREWDRIVER!
Implausible non-deniability
RedRedRose
Well-Known Member
2022 Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations
Turkey hosted discussions in March of last year. Both China, Mexico and Brazil have made peace proposals/suggestions.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
Mexico? Yeah, they are really good at peace. 300,000 dead and over 70,000 disappearances in the war on drugs, and counting.
T & P
|-o-| (-o-) |-o-|
Interesting development regarding the allegedly invincible new hypersonic missiles:
www.reuters.com
It seems sacrificial lambs are already being sought for what must be a massive embarrassment to Putin. I wonder how widely the pisspoor performance of Putin’s flying penises is being reported in Russia, if at all.
Russia says hypersonic missile scientists face 'very serious' treason accusations
Three Russian academics who have worked on hypersonic missile technology face "very serious accusations", the Kremlin said on Wednesday, in a treason investigation that has spread alarm through Russia's scientific community.
www.reuters.com
It seems sacrificial lambs are already being sought for what must be a massive embarrassment to Putin. I wonder how widely the pisspoor performance of Putin’s flying penises is being reported in Russia, if at all.
not-bono-ever
meh
Ole Uncle Joe had a bloody beef with Russian scientists iirc
ska invita
back on the other side
A massive dose of realism about the war in the FT today:
in summary
-this is the peak of US (and therefore NATO) military support
-support could likely decrease in fact
-short of a major breakthrough by either side (unlikely) we might see the beginnings of a peace deal by autumn. Summer seen as "the last real chance for Kyiv to change the situation on the ground"
(for those who have been asking on this thread 'what would a peace deal look like', it will look like Russia winning annexed territory)
...the article doesn't mentions it but US computer explicitly has said No to the ridiculously named "coalition of jets"
in summary
-this is the peak of US (and therefore NATO) military support
-support could likely decrease in fact
-short of a major breakthrough by either side (unlikely) we might see the beginnings of a peace deal by autumn. Summer seen as "the last real chance for Kyiv to change the situation on the ground"
(for those who have been asking on this thread 'what would a peace deal look like', it will look like Russia winning annexed territory)
...the article doesn't mentions it but US computer explicitly has said No to the ridiculously named "coalition of jets"
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
The article doesn't actually say that a major breakthrough is unlikely.
It says that Ukraine achieving all of its military objectives this summer is unlikely (obviously, given that includes Crimea), but that US officials are hopeful that major gains will be made.
I think some kind of major breakthrough may well see Ukraine being given enough to finish the job, but the article is correct that much will hinge on what happens this summer.
Cid
Proper break this time
This is precisely why Europe has been bringing in stuff like the ammunition production bill; there has been an awareness for a while that US support is contingent. It's not unanticipated.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Far too many ifs and buts in that to draw any real conclusion ATM, besides it's been clear for some time that this spring/summer will be crucial to the potential outcome of this war.
It's a question of waiting and seeing what happens over the next few months, and hoping for the best.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I think that's a very poor reading of the article, backed up by a poor understanding of what has already been delivered, and is in the process of being delivered, but has not been used yet.
Absolutely no one does not believe there's a time limit - there's conflicting views on what that time limit is, and what the drivers are, but the Autumn of 2024 seems (to me) to be the solid one.
There is no one - no one - who does not believe that Ukraine will have a much better Summer and Autumn than Russia. There's no one who believes that Russia has a force in waiting with which it can undertake a large scale summer offensive/counter offensive - Ukraine OTOH does have that force, and it gets stronger and better equipped each week - the Challenger and Leopard tanks that have been delivered haven't been used, the number of Leopard tanks will probably hit 150+ by late autumn. The US Abram's tanks won't be ready until next year. It's also interesting that Ukraine has not used the force it's been building in its offensive around Bakhmut, while Russia has expended one of its more capable forces in attempting to defend it.
One can argue that the promises may have peaked, but given that deliveries are anything upto 6 months or a year behind promises, that's not a problem that Ukraine is effected by this year.
The question of fast jets is not one solely governed by the US - F-16 is the prefered candidate, not because of it's particular qualities, but simply because there are lots of them, and it would be easy to put together a multi national package that didn't effect any one state disproportionately. However, if Europe - which has far more skin in this game than the US - decided that the US 'no' really does mean 'no', unlike all the other times they've said 'no' - then there are other options that would not require US permission.
It also fails to take into account that US policy is impacted - not set, but not indifferent to - it's standing in NATO. If the US refuses to allow other states to donate F-16's, it's standing is reduced, people become less likely to support its policies other areas, or indeed to buy it's equipment - but if other states were to provide other aircraft (Typhoon, Mirage 2000, Gripen etc..) in the face of US opposition, the US would suffer a huge lose of face, and it knows it.
Understanding how NATO works on a political level is informed by an understanding of Early Mediaeval kingship - Kings stay kings by protecting and rewarding the leaders of their warbands. Biden understands that, and unlike Trump, he cares a great deal about US standing and leadership in NATO. 'No' is unlikely to be the last word in this...
Absolutely no one does not believe there's a time limit - there's conflicting views on what that time limit is, and what the drivers are, but the Autumn of 2024 seems (to me) to be the solid one.
There is no one - no one - who does not believe that Ukraine will have a much better Summer and Autumn than Russia. There's no one who believes that Russia has a force in waiting with which it can undertake a large scale summer offensive/counter offensive - Ukraine OTOH does have that force, and it gets stronger and better equipped each week - the Challenger and Leopard tanks that have been delivered haven't been used, the number of Leopard tanks will probably hit 150+ by late autumn. The US Abram's tanks won't be ready until next year. It's also interesting that Ukraine has not used the force it's been building in its offensive around Bakhmut, while Russia has expended one of its more capable forces in attempting to defend it.
One can argue that the promises may have peaked, but given that deliveries are anything upto 6 months or a year behind promises, that's not a problem that Ukraine is effected by this year.
The question of fast jets is not one solely governed by the US - F-16 is the prefered candidate, not because of it's particular qualities, but simply because there are lots of them, and it would be easy to put together a multi national package that didn't effect any one state disproportionately. However, if Europe - which has far more skin in this game than the US - decided that the US 'no' really does mean 'no', unlike all the other times they've said 'no' - then there are other options that would not require US permission.
It also fails to take into account that US policy is impacted - not set, but not indifferent to - it's standing in NATO. If the US refuses to allow other states to donate F-16's, it's standing is reduced, people become less likely to support its policies other areas, or indeed to buy it's equipment - but if other states were to provide other aircraft (Typhoon, Mirage 2000, Gripen etc..) in the face of US opposition, the US would suffer a huge lose of face, and it knows it.
Understanding how NATO works on a political level is informed by an understanding of Early Mediaeval kingship - Kings stay kings by protecting and rewarding the leaders of their warbands. Biden understands that, and unlike Trump, he cares a great deal about US standing and leadership in NATO. 'No' is unlikely to be the last word in this...
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
NATO as a feudal system? Guess we've got a long way still to walk until we reach Paul Mason's Peoples NATO
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Good to see reports that the infighting between Wagner's Prigozhin and the Russia's 'strongmen' continues, the more chaos between the two parties, the better it is for Ukraine, IMO.
Posted at 10:52 on the Shy News live updates page.
Posted at 10:52 on the Shy News live updates page.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
It'll soon buff out
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