Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Smokeandsteam]

EU ambassador to Uk on radio trying to defend their refusal to exclude Russia from Swift. Pushed hard he says it’s because it would hurt us too much.

Putin will cower as the EU continues its deliberations on the matter.

 

[Badgers]

Oh, I know he's now saying the war must stop, but like Farage, he was happily blaming NATO before what's happened today, despite the fact that there was bugger all chance of Ukraine joining NATO in the foreseeable future.

What a monster he is

FFS you are better than this CS.

 

[bimble]

Is it impossible that there’ll be a coup in Russia, deposing putin?

 

[Artaxerxes]

Is it impossible that there’ll be a coup in Russia, deposing putin?

Everything depends how long this drags on.

 

[Pickman's model]

Is it impossible that there’ll be a coup in Russia, deposing putin?

What, with the army you mean? I think you're having a laugh

 

[bimble]

What, with the army you mean? I think you're having a laugh

It was a question. What’s the end game ? If he gets regime change it won’t hold. His choices seem irrational and deeply damaging to Russia, idk but why is he untopplable I’m asking.

 

[Pickman's model]

It was a question. What’s the end game ? If he gets regime change it won’t hold. His choices seem irrational and deeply damaging to Russia, idk but why is he untopplable I’m asking.

Who do you suggest would mount the coup? With what forces? With what planning? Coups don't make themselves you know

 

[JimW]

Just said on that feed that Zelensky has put in a formal request for military assistance from the Bucharest Nine: Bucharest Nine - IASPOINT which I'd not heard of but seems to be Eastern sub-section of NATO. Not sure how that works, does Ukraine have a formal relationship with them?

 

[bimble]

Who do you suggest would mount the coup? With what forces? With what planning? Coups don't make themselves you know

I don’t know. All those other men in the security meeting tv show who were clearly terrified of him?

 

[Pickman's model]

I don’t know. All those other men in the security meeting tv show who were clearly terrified of him?

You're not going to get with that number of people taking on Putin's guards are you

 

[SpookyFrank]

Everything depends how long this drags on.

And how much it costs the oligarchs.

 

[TopCat]

You fucking twat, but feel free to continue entertaining us with your bizarre input.

Wrapped up snug in your flag.

 

[Pickman's model]

Anyone thinking of a coup will be thinking of what's happened in turkey

 

[Spymaster]

EU ambassador to Uk on radio trying to defend their refusal to exclude Russia from Swift. Pushed hard he says it’s because it would hurt us too much.

It sounds a bit craven but it has to be a consideration. I think the US and the UK want to cut them off but the EU don’t at the moment. Cutting off Russia from SWIFT will cause enormous damage to EU businesses owed money by Russian ones. The value of that has to be balanced. Their disconnection isn’t a silver bullet either. Russia have been preparing for being cut out of SWIFT since they invaded Crimea, and have developed their own system, SPES, which whilst not ideal, will do the job to some extent.

 

[brogdale]

You're not going to get with that number of people taking on Putin's guards are you

Yeah, all this shite about his Rona-paranoia requiring a 4m min personal space...I reckon he’s more afraid of catching Von-Stauffenbergitis

 

[TopCat]

again ukraine could not join Nato

Zelenskiy said "We have been left alone to defend our state.

Who is ready to fight alongside us? I don’t see anyone. Who is ready to give Ukraine a guarantee of Nato membership? Everyone is afraid."

 

[Artaxerxes]

And how much it costs the oligarchs.

Maybe, I think Putin is under the impression he wags them after the last twenty years consolidation of power into his hands.

 

[bimble]

Tangent but do we say Oligarchs nowadays about anyone else or just Russians ?

 

[Pickman's model]

Maybe, I think Putin is under the impression he wags them after the last twenty years consolidation of power into his hands.

The Russian elites aren't one homogenous group, I wouldn't be surprised if he's played upon their riven state over the years to prevent them uniting against them

 

[platinumsage]

Thread on Russia failing to meet their military objectives:

 

[Pickman's model]

Tangent but do we say Oligarchs nowadays about anyone else or just Russians ?

Yes but less frequently than previously

 

[frogwoman]

Apparently he's obsessed with being poisoned

 

[bimble]

If he really does not care about public opinion in Russia and also has no fear of toppling from within the ranks of the rich and powerful there then how are sanctions actually going to make an impact on what he chooses to do ?

 

[tim]

Pretty convincing collection of voices here saying that putin may indeed have lost his mind, or at least not be the rational pragmatic strategist he used to be.

Don't be silly. He's a Machiavellian genius. His rambling speech at that chaotic security council meeting along with the penchant for glossy white furniture and making sure that everyone is siting at least 25 meters away from him, is just a front.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I'm rapidly rethinking my, 'Putin hasn't gone mad, he knows what he's doing' line from a few days ago.

 

[andysays]

I'm rapidly rethinking my, 'Putin hasn't gone mad, he knows what he's doing' line from a few days ago.

There is a danger though of over-doing the idea that this is all about Putin as an individual and losing sight of all the wider context.

 

[Fez909]

Not sure if this has been posted, but someone was asking about charities to support. This looks a good list:

 

[tim]

What, with the army you mean? I think you're having a laugh

It doesn't look as if he is having much if a laugh. He is probably very aware that he is at risk of either being deposed or killed by those around him. It's probably also getting increasingly difficult to make election tampering look even vaguely convincing.

None of this is likely to involve the army, en-masse. Maybe, it will all go Tehran 1979 albeit without Mullahs.

 

[JimW]

Apparently he's obsessed with being poisoned

Could go for the Mithridates Eupator approach - took homeopathic doses of all the poisons all his life. Bit of luck Putin would fuck the dosage up early doors.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Have we had this yet? Being shared by lefty facebook, twitter etc. Anything short of foreign powers deciding Ukraine's future without consulting them is war mongering. Anything short of legitimising, and capitulating to, Putin's stated objectives is war-mongering.

How is this gonna look in 20 years' time I wonder? About as good as, 'Iraq can stop this invasion any time if they just cough up the WMDs' would look now.