Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[SpookyFrank]

We've got a few proper fuckwits outing themselves on here this week huh.

 

[RD2003]

Oh well that lets him off the hook for being a cunt then, for some reason.

The liberating power of the internet. We are now all free to impotently rail at 'cunts.'

 

[teqniq]

Apparently he's obsessed with being poisoned

I wonder why?

 

[RD2003]

I reckon it might have been Russia invading them which created at least some of that anti-Russian sentiment.

No doubt about it, but the Russian interference was in response to what had already happened in Kiev. Again, it is complete accordance with Russian history. It isn't about right and wrong, it's about what is and what will not, in essence, ever change.

 

[brogdale]

Trapped in London(grad)?

 

[bimble]

Read some proper history, particularly Russian history. Putin is typical in his thinking, not an outlier.

Typical of what? Russians? Despots? Anyway I don't get the point of what you're saying, that this was all predictable if Putin's essential / archetypal nature was taken into account and so .. what, it should have been avoided but its too late so let him get on with it whatever it is? What's your point.

 

[platinumsage]

Ukraine strikes into Russian territory:

 

[SpookyFrank]

I wonder why?

He's got a bit of an obsession with history books apparently. Obviously he missed the bit about how when they couldn't poison Rasputin, they simply shot him instead.

 

[RD2003]

Typical of what? Russians? Despots? Anyway I don't get the point of what you're saying, that this was all predictable if Putin's essential / archetypal nature was taken into account and so .. what, it should have been avoided but its too late so let him get on with it whatever it is? What's your point.

Yes Russians and despots. The two tend to go together. No matter what political breaks occur, history shows that Russia usually reverts to despotism. Whether you or I like that fact is totally irrelevant.

 

[platinumsage]

Trapped in London(grad)?

I think we should have stopped flying over Russia anyway. Sure it costs more fuel to find other routes but Russia collects around $3500 per flight in fees. And what if a flight has to land in Russian territory due to a technical problem and there happens to be e.g. a Ukrainian citizen on board. We need to treat them like Belarus now when it comes to aviation.

 

[Spymaster]

Typical of what? Russians? Despots? Anyway I don't get the point of what you're saying, that this was all predictable if Putin's essential / archetypal nature was taken into account and so .. what, it should have been avoided but its too late so let him get on with it whatever it is? What's your point.

I don’t think RD’s sixth form debating society has got to that bit yet.

 

[Aladdin]

He's got a bit of an obsession with history books apparently. Obviously he missed the bit about how when they couldn't poison Rasputin, they simply shot him instead.

They poisoned, shot and threw him in the ice cold waters of the Neva river where eventually he drowned

 

[frogwoman]

I'm not sure that is not going to hit ordinary Russians most though. Also have a couple of british expat mates living out there who aren't Putin fans at all and now have no way of getting back home - and could frankly become a target of Putin because they've been quite vocal on social media about him.

 

[frogwoman]

I think we should have stopped flying over Russia anyway. Sure it costs more fuel to find other routes but Russia collects around $3500 per flight in fees. And what if a flight has to land in Russian territory due to a technical problem and there happens to be e.g. a Ukrainian citizen on board. We need to treat them like Belarus now when it comes to aviation.

There will be Ukrainians on board anyway. There are loads of ukrainians in russia, it's like if we decided to bomb Dublin or Edinburgh. Loads of people have family ties in Ukraine. That's why this war is so unpopular

 

[Kaka Tim]

They poisoned, shot and threw him in the ice cold waters of the Neva river where eventually he drowned

it was a shame how he carried on ...

 

[frogwoman]

We need to treat them like Belarus now when it comes to aviation.

I'm not convinced that will help. Anyway it's easy enough to get into Minsk if you actually want to

 

[Aladdin]

Wonder what Putin's Naval exercise off Ireland were really about?.. Now that we know the border manouvres were really just preparations for invasion of Ukraine.

 

[frogwoman]

Also makes it far more likely that russians who live here will become targets of the regime when they actually do get back to russia and have their socials etc monitored while they're away

 

[Kaka Tim]

Not being pedantic, but just for perspective, this isnt true - Bosnian war had 100,00 casualties and lasted three years and you could combine other post Yugoslav wars to that count too.
If Putin is just out for regime change in Ukraine, succeeds quickly and stops at that, then this might not have a death toll anywhere near that. There are a lot of Ifs of course.

Biggest war as in size of forces involved and size of war zone. And its only been going on for a day or two - who knows how long or how bloody it will get? The Ukrainians are clearly not going to lie down - look how long and bloody Chechnya got - and they were a far weaker opponent than Ukraine. And Ukraine can expect to be very well supported in terms of money, equipment and volunteers for the foreseeable. A prolonged insurgency against a Russian installed regime is a very real possibility. And that's a whole other can of worms if insurgents are crossing the border from NATO member Poland.

 

[RD2003]

I don’t think RD’s sixth form debating society has got to that bit yet.

Gosh, he's still saying things about me. He must think I care (for what it's worth, I long ago came to the conclusion that I'm probably one of the biggest cunts going. It doesn't mean I can't often be right, as I undoubtedly am here.)

 

[SpookyFrank]

Also makes it far more likely that russians who live here will become targets of the regime when they actually do get back to russia and have their socials etc monitored while they're away

Init. With that and the UK government's new second class status for dual nationals Mrs Frank is having to consider renouncing her Russian citizenship.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Yes Russians and despots. The two tend to go together. No matter what political breaks occur, history shows that Russia usually reverts to despotism. Whether you or I like that fact is totally irrelevant.

History shows nothing of the sort. Go back in time just a wee while and loads of places are run by despots. There is no inevitability about that. What is obviously true is that the more power despots have the more difficult it is to challenge them. The ways of thinking and modes of action which they encourage are hard to alter. But there is no iron law of history with a special clause about Russia.

 

[RD2003]

History shows nothing of the sort. Go back in time just a wee while and loads of places are run by despots. There is no inevitability about that. What is obviously true is that the more power despots have the more difficult it is to challenge them. The ways of thinking and modes of action which they encourage are hard to alter. But there is no iron law of history with a special clause about Russia.

We're not talking about other places however. Can you deny that in Russia, no matter what political ruptures occur, it has always reverted to despotism? What is possible in one country is not necessarily possible in others.

 

[platinumsage]

There will be Ukrainians on board anyway. There are loads of ukrainians in russia, it's like if we decided to bomb Dublin or Edinburgh. Loads of people have family ties in Ukraine. That's why this war is so unpopular

I mean Ukrainians who don't want to enter Russia, for example traveling London to Seoul or wherever.

I'm not convinced that will help. Anyway it's easy enough to get into Minsk if you actually want to

It's not about getting to Minsk, it's about whether we trust them to comply with international agreements regarding overflights through their airspace.

 

[existentialist]

Gosh, he's still saying things about me. He must think I care (for what it's worth, I long ago came to the conclusion that I'm probably one of the biggest cunts going. It doesn't mean I can't often be right, as I undoubtedly am here.)

What's it feel like to be so much better than everyone you are surrounded by?

 

[dilute micro]

Wonder what Putin's Naval exercise off Ireland were really about?.. Now that we know the border manouvres were really just preparations for invasion of Ukraine.

I think just flexing the same as with all the flights into other countries' air space over recent years. I'm thinking and hoping Ukraine is a one off. Russia doesn't yet have the military to take on a modern foe. But European countries don't have the size to defend home territory and kick Russia out of Lithuania, for instance.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

You political child.

Exactly what I was thinking about your 2001 era analysis of everything being the west's fault.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think just flexing the same as with all the flights into other countries' air space over recent years. I'm thinking and hoping Ukraine is a one off. Russia doesn't yet have the military to take on a modern foe. But European countries don't have the size to defend home territory and kick Russia out of Lithuania, for instance.

i don't get the feeling you've been following the military reforms shoygu and gerasimov have been making over the past decade. or indeed modern warfare, which for the past 20 years has involved combating non-state groups. very few countries have the ability to project force beyond their borders, and russia is one: for example, they changed the course of the syrian civil war.

 

[Pickman's model]

Exactly what I was thinking about your 2001 era analysis of everything being the west's fault.

everything is the west's fault, though perhaps not in the sense you mean.

 

[kebabking]

Is this accurate, kebabking ?

It's complicated...

It's certainly interesting that the Russians tried some deep effects Airborne ops without huge airpower, and with predictable results.

It's also interesting that the Russians appear to have run out of day-to-day PGM's in 12 hours - observers of the Russians' Syrian adventure will recall cockpit videos from 2014 of Russian aircraft with civilian handheld GPS systems taped onto the windshield frame to tell them what country they were flying over.

That the situation with PGM's hasn't changed much could be in an indicator that the 'cowpat' theory still holds - a thin, hard crust, with a load of wet shit underneath.

(Interestingly, I've just re-written UK Land doctrine on Deep Strike - there's nothing wrong with Soviet doctrine, or shamelessly copying it, but you need relentless, effective organic fires to make it work...)

I think the blokes broad conclusions are correct - that Russia will win, and install a puppet government - but I think it will cost them more than they thought, and that a continuing insurgency will drain their combat power to a far greater degree than they are comfortable with.

For all of Russia's combat power, they have nothing like the numbers required to occupy the whole of Ukraine - though I think they'll use an indiscriminate brutality that will make our eyes water - but as occupiers have learned since the beginning of time, if you leave people alive, and leave a space for them to operate, you'll get an insurgency, and this one is armed with Javelins and NLAWS...