Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[bimble]

If he cared a lot about the Russian economy he wouldn't have decided to do a war would he, so (all of the predictable) economic sanctions aren't likely to make him change his mind are they.

 

[Spymaster]

Thread on Russia failing to meet their military objectives:

Is this accurate, kebabking ?

 

[brogdale]

If he cared a lot about the Russian economy he wouldn't have decided to do a war would he, so (all of the predictable) economic sanctions aren't likely to make him change his mind are they.

taking back control always exists only in the affective domain.

 

[Aladdin]

Pretty convincing collection of voices here saying that putin may indeed have lost his mind, or at least not be the rational pragmatic strategist he used to be.

Decision to invade Ukraine raises questions over Putin’s ‘sense of reality’

Officials in western capitals concerned by ‘despotic mindset’ of Russian president and rambling Monday speech increased doubts

www.theguardian.com

Yep. And if they're concerned then the politburo is concerned.

He may slip and fall down a white marble stairs any day soon.

 

[ska invita]

the nation that has just launched the biggest European war since 1945

Not being pedantic, but just for perspective, this isnt true - Bosnian war had 100,00 casualties and lasted three years and you could combine other post Yugoslav wars to that count too.
If Putin is just out for regime change in Ukraine, succeeds quickly and stops at that, then this might not have a death toll anywhere near that. There are a lot of Ifs of course.

 

[RD2003]

Once again: if western powers hadn't interfered continuously into Ukrainan politics, culminating in the installation of the post-2014 government, which whipped up anti-Russian feeling and made the wholly unrealistic (thinking historically and geographically/strategically) promise of joining NATO and the EU, then none of this would be happening. This is reality,

Something else: we are constantly being fed the idea that this can't be happening in the 21st century. Why not? Why is the 21st century any different to previous centuries? Nobody seems willing to consider the idea that this is the shape of things to come. That ahead lie horrors that will dwarf even those of the 20th century. It isn't as if the world hasn't already laid a solid foundation for this during this century. What do people think is going to happen when the climate crisis kicks in in earnest and the wars of resources start and the mass waves of refugees start rolling in? To mention only one of the infernos that lie ahead.

 

[Pickman's model]

It doesn't look as if he is having much if a laugh. He is probably very aware that he is at risk of either being deposed or killed by those around him. It's probably also getting increasingly difficult to make election tampering look even vaguely convincing.

None of this is likely to involve the army, en-masse. Maybe, it will all go Tehran 1979 albeit without Mullahs.

She. Bimble is a she.

 

[Aladdin]

I don’t think it is that which is being referred to in the YouTube clip I quoted, but rather a televised speech Putin made, which was translated into various languages for a world audience. It may well have been reported on by the press here, it’s just that I didn’t see anything about it, so I was surprised to hear of it.

He comes across pretty off in the very long video shared to you.
And he does go on about the points in your previous post. But he would do as his points didnt change.
As the video goes on he looks increasingly pissed off and stsrts biting his cheek, drumming his fingers on the table, quizzing his ministers and is definitely as cool calm and collected as we usually see him. His face and neck are very puffy.
Watching him on Monday, he didnt just look stressed, he looked like he was hyped. And nuts.

 

[Spymaster]

If he cared a lot about the Russian economy he wouldn't have decided to do a war would he, so (all of the predictable) economic sanctions aren't likely to make him change his mind are they.

Depends what's in his head. If he thought that he could annexe Ukraine within a couple of weeks, be subjected to sanctions that wouldn't properly bite for months, then negotiate a withdrawal having achieved his aims and get the sanctions lifted; then why not? If he's gone full on bonkers and intends to take out most of Europe after Ukraine, and thinks he'll be successful, then why would he care about EU sanctions? If (most likely) he thinks that Russia's economy can survive global economic sanction with China's assistance, then why would he be deterred?

SpookyFrank is right. Hit the Russian oligarchs harder and get them to try to stop the mad bastard. Freezing their assets isn't good enough. These fuckers are wealthy enough to wait until they get unfrozen, even if that takes years. Their assets need to be seized with no hope of their return. Then they'll start thinking they're starting to lose something. If that happens globally and the only home for their money becomes Russia (where sanctions have massively reduced its value), things will start to change.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Perfectly possible to condemn the invasion whilst explaining the wider context and contributory agencies that have led to this appalling situation where many working class lives are being sacrificed. Although that wouldn’t suit the pro NATO brigade on here

It's not about being pro-NATO, it's about being pro-Ukraine, a fully independent and democratic state [or was], it's right of self-determination in accordance with the UN charter, and solidarity with Ukrainians. That extends to their right to join NATO, subject to them meeting the usual conditions*, if they feel that's their best option for their security in the future, and in view of them having an aggressive neighbour controlled by a paranoid madman.

* That includes, among other things, having no “unresolved external territorial disputes”, which they have, because Putin has ensured with the situation in Donbass.

All his waffle about Ukraine joining NATO is a threat to Russia is just that, waffle. His claim that NATO wants Ukraine to join, so they would be able to 'strike in the heart of Russian with nuclear weapons', is frankly ridiculous, that can already be done, without stationing nukes in Ukraine. FFS, he has just short of 6,000 nuclear warheads, that's more than the US, and that gives him all the security he needs against a supposed threat from NATO, they would never risk mutually assured destruction.

Sadly, and worrying, I am not convinced any longer that Putin wouldn't, he has already hinted at it with his statement about other countries trying to stop him or if they create further threats to Russia, then 'Russia’s response will be immediate and lead you to such consequences that you have never faced in your history'. The suggestion is that things are proving harder than Russia had expected, that they haven't achieved all their aims for day one, he's got protests at home, and they could well substantially increase, especially when the body bags start coming home. He's crashed his own currency and stock market, and that was before yesterday's announcements of new and harder sanctions. He's so unpredictable at the moment, as pressure increases on him, it's worrying at what point does his hand start hoovering over that big red button.

Putin is responsible for what he is doing, it's nowt to do with NATO, nor the EU, it's down to one paranoid madman.

 

[bimble]

Once again: if western powers hadn't interfered continuously into Ukrainan politics, culminating in the installation of the post-2014 government, which whipped up anti-Russian feeling and made the wholly unrealistic (thinking historically and geographically/strategically) promise of joining NATO and the EU, then none of this would be happening. This is reality,

if Litvinenko had just behaved himself he'd never have gone and made himself get poloniumed, entirely avoidable.

 

[RD2003]

View attachment 311765

Have we had this yet? Being shared by lefty facebook, twitter etc. Anything short of foreign powers deciding Ukraine's future without consulting them is war mongering. Anything short of legitimising, and capitulating to, Putin's stated objectives is war-mongering.

How is this gonna look in 20 years' time I wonder? About as good as, 'Iraq can stop this invasion any time if they just cough up the WMDs' would look now.

Again, this is realism. Those who purport to be horrified can't hide their thirst for blood. It's another computer game for the armchair generals.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Once again: if western powers hadn't interfered continuously into Ukrainan politics, culminating in the installation of the post-2014 government, which whipped up anti-Russian feeling and made the wholly unrealistic (thinking historically and geographically/strategically) promise of joining NATO and the EU, then none of this would be happening. This is reality,

Oh fuck off. 'boo hoo poor old Vladimir, if only those nasty NATO bullies had left him alone he could've just robbed his billions and poisoned people he doesn't like in other countries in peace and none of this would be happening'

 

[RD2003]

It's not about being pro-NATO, it's about being pro-Ukraine, a fully independent and democratic state [or was], it's right of self-determination in accordance with the UN charter, and solidarity with Ukrainians. That extends to their right to join NATO, subject to them meeting the usual conditions*, if they feel that's their best option for their security in the future, and in view of them having an aggressive neighbour controlled by a paranoid madman.

* That includes, among other things, having no “unresolved external territorial disputes”, which they have, because Putin has ensured with the situation in Donbass.

All his waffle about Ukraine joining NATO is a threat to Russia is just that, waffle. His claim that NATO wants Ukraine to join, so they would be able to 'strike in the heart of Russian with nuclear weapons', is frankly ridiculous, that can already be done, without stationing nukes in Ukraine. FFS, he has just short of 6,000 nuclear warheads, that's more than the US, and that gives him all the security he needs against a supposed threat from NATO, they would never risk mutually assured destruction.

Sadly, and worrying, I am not convinced any longer that Putin wouldn't, he has already hinted at it with his statement about other countries trying to stop him or if they create further threats to Russia, then 'Russia’s response will be immediate and lead you to such consequences that you have never faced in your history'. The suggestion is that things are proving harder than Russia had expected, that they haven't achieved all their aims for day one, he's got protests at home, and they could well substantially increase, especially when the body bags start coming home. He's crashed his own currency and stock market, and that was before yesterday's announcements of new and harder sanctions. He's so unpredictable at the moment, as pressure increases on him, it's worrying at what point does his hand start hoovering over that big red button.

Putin is responsible for what he is doing, it's nowt to do with NATO, nor the EU, it's down to one paranoid madman.

Read some proper history, particularly Russian history. Putin is typical in his thinking, not an outlier.

 

[RD2003]

Oh fuck off. 'boo hoo poor old Vladimir, if only those nasty NATO bullies had left him alone he could've just robbed his billions and poisoned people he doesn't like in other countries in peace and none of this would be happening'

You political child.

 

[frogwoman]

That bloody table as well.

 

[RD2003]

if Litvinenko had just behaved himself he'd never have gone and made himself get poloniumed, entirely avoidable.

Once again-typical in Russian history. It will not change.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Thread on Russia failing to meet their military objectives:

Makes sense but I think he's getting to some pretty big conclusions about the future of global politics from one day's fighting.

I would not be surprised to see that Russia's capabilities were lower than the numbers of personnel/tanks/aircraft etc would suggest. They don't have limitless resources and kleptocracy will take a massive cut out of everything. National service means lots of soldiers but shit morale.

Whatever limitations the Ukrainians may have, a shortage of shiny things is not likely to be one of them. Nor will they suffer from a half-arsed commitment to their objectives, or a lack of clarity of what their objectives are.

 

[brogdale]

Yeah, but in the case of the UK, Wallace's own party made Putin's task even easier...

 

[Spymaster]

Once again: if western powers hadn't interfered continuously into Ukrainan politics, culminating in the installation of the post-2014 government, which whipped up anti-Russian feeling and made the wholly unrealistic (thinking historically and geographically/strategically) promise of joining NATO and the EU, then none of this would be happening. This is reality,

Yeah. All this is the west's fault. Nothing to do with Vlad. He's doing what he has to.

Yaaaaaawn

 

[SpookyFrank]

Once again: if western powers hadn't interfered continuously into Ukrainan politics, culminating in the installation of the post-2014 government, which whipped up anti-Russian feeling and made the wholly unrealistic (thinking historically and geographically/strategically) promise of joining NATO and the EU, then none of this would be happening. This is reality,

I reckon it might have been Russia invading them which created at least some of that anti-Russian sentiment.

 

[Pickman's model]

Makes sense but I think he's getting to some pretty big conclusions about the future of global politics from one day's fighting.

I would not be surprised to see that Russia's capabilities were lower than the numbers of personnel/tanks/aircraft etc would suggest. They don't have limitless resources and kleptocracy will take a massive cut out of everything. National service means lots of soldiers but shit morale.

Whatever limitations the Ukrainians may have, a shortage of shiny things is not likely to be one of them. Nor will they suffer from a half-arsed commitment to their objectives, or a lack of clarity of what their objectives are.

Do I have to repeat that the fighting soldiers are volunteer contractors and the conscripts are in ancillary roles?

 

[cupid_stunt]

I don’t think it is that which is being referred to in the YouTube clip I quoted, but rather a televised speech Putin made, which was translated into various languages for a world audience. It may well have been reported on by the press here, it’s just that I didn’t see anything about it, so I was surprised to hear of it.

It was wildly reported, I remember thinking at the time, fuck me, he's totally lost the plot.

 

[dilute micro]

I'm rapidly rethinking my, 'Putin hasn't gone mad, he knows what he's doing' line from a few days ago.

I was thinking the same thing.

 

[Spymaster]

You political child.

Lol!

You, of course, are a political giant!

 

[SpookyFrank]

Read some proper history, particularly Russian history. Putin is typical in his thinking, not an outlier.

Oh well that lets him off the hook for being a cunt then, for some reason.

 

[RD2003]

Yeah. All this is the west's fault. Nothing to do with Vlad. He's doing what he has to.

Yaaaaaawn

Yes, clearly Russia never thought about Ukraine before Putin came along.

 

[RD2003]

DP

 

[RD2003]

I pale in comparison to you, however. Nice to see we've already reached the stage of leaving off the subject to write about each other. As I said, politically too many of you are infants.

Nice to see we've reached the stage of leaving off the subject to write about each other.

 

[brogdale]

Infany! Infany; they've all got it....