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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Doctor Carrot said:
From what I recall, Putin is seen as a bit of embarrassment in the big cities and most of his support comes from more rural areas and small towns. I'm not surprised to see his actions are unpopular in the main cities. Still brave of them to protest, mind.
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True. Don't forget that, even within the current reduced boundaries of the Russian empire, 20% of the population is non-Russian and (mostly) almost by nature unsympathetic to the imperialist state. Rural areas vary enormously too. Many people living in Vladivostok are just so unlikely to give a toss about the Ukraine, or even about Moscow.
 
Kaka Tim said:
The Soviet occupation of Czechoslovakia and Hungary - and Afghanistan were not a declaration of war on another state and (like its occupation of the crimea) a response to political upheaval within those countries - they were also cold bloodedly rational in terms of cold war real politick/sphere of influences type shit. Similar to the US in its backing of coups in Chile and Indonesia and its intervention in Vietnam. They were within the expectations of what the super powers could and would do. And they were more controllable wrt to their repercussions.
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Well unfortunately the end of the original cold war, one of the superpowers being much diminished and not so super, the changed nature of what that player could and would be prepared to do, did not prevent Ukraine from still falling within the bloody realm of 'real politick/sphere of influences type shit'. Not even when other stuff you describe such as war and invasion being more easily justified if its a dictatorship rather than a modern democracy is added to the mix. Because the value we place on democracy doesnt end up counting for so much when the shit hits the fan, not even in western countries that like to use the concepts of democracy and freedom in their pretty speeches.

I cannot claim at this stage to know whether the eventual full ramifications of this war will be closer to the unparalleled stuff you claim, or the alternative context I've offered. The current rhetoric from many nations is not a reliable guide as to what stances will be taken months and years down the line, so I'll just have to wait and see. Especially as we dont know how long the initial fall of Ukraine will take, or how many casualties that will entail. And its certainly not that I dont care or seek to downplay the horror. I'm just trying to avoid getting too giddy about matters, in case the rug is pulled from under our feet a little further down the line via the rhetoric of our own side, in terms of the extent that our nations and media will treat this war and what follows as quite so large a moment in this history of Europe as you suggest. The rhetoric today implies that level of gravitas is being attached to this war, but that may not last. I'm jaded by the way they can jerk us around on this front as the months go by, especially when it comes in the wake of events that we were previously encouraged to believe were unthinkable. It would be easier for me to talk about this terrible war if I could pretend what Putin is doing to Ukraine was a massive shock to me, something I felt I could only explain in terms of him personally having lost his mind and made a huge unfathomable misstep, but because that would not be my honest opinion of whats been brewing in that region for a very long time I just cannot take that route right now.

This is related to why I keep mentioning how laughable I found the 'end of history' claims that were made when the Soviet Union was toast. There was a big shift in power, an end to one sort of shit balance and stalemate, and end to one way of framing the order of global power. But there was no genuine end to 'real politick/sphere of influences type shit', only a lull and the shifting of that game to different fronts, different forms of competition. But some of the old ways were never really lurking all that far away, power struggles could always trigger them again, and the way various countries with sizeable military might behave in such circumstances has not fundamentally changed.
 
Raheem said:
In terms of sanctions, I would have gone for the first Ukrainian refugee through UK customs gets Chelsea football club.
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Haha that'd be fun but a simultaneous reaction to this was that they'll find it easier to get refuge in this country than non-whites from war zones.
 
elbows said:
Well unfortunately the end of the original cold war, one of the superpowers being much diminished and not so super, the changed nature of what that player could and would be prepared to do, did not prevent Ukraine from still falling within the bloody realm of 'real politick/sphere of influences type shit'. Not even when other stuff you describe such as war and invasion being more easily justified if its a dictatorship rather than a modern democracy is added to the mix. Because the value we place on democracy doesnt end up counting for so much when the shit hits the fan, not even in western countries that like to use the concepts of democracy and freedom in their pretty speeches.

I cannot claim at this stage to know whether the eventual full ramifications of this war will be closer to the unparalleled stuff you claim, or the alternative context I've offered. The current rhetoric from many nations is not a reliable guide as to what stances will be taken months and years down the line, so I'll just have to wait and see. Especially as we dont know how long the initial fall of Ukraine will take, or how many casualties that will entail. And its certainly not that I dont care or seek to downplay the horror. I'm just trying to avoid getting too giddy about matters, in case the rug is pulled from under our feet a little further down the line via the rhetoric of our own side, in terms of the extent that our nations and media will treat this war and what follows as quite so large a moment in this history of Europe as you suggest. The rhetoric today implies that level of gravitas is being attached to this war, but that may not last. I'm jaded by the way they can jerk us around on this front as the months go by, especially when it comes in the wake of events that we were previously encouraged to believe were unthinkable. It would be easier for me to talk about this terrible war if I could pretend what Putin is doing to Ukraine was a massive shock to me, something I felt I could only explain in terms of him personally having lost his mind and made a huge unfathomable misstep, but because that would not be my honest opinion of whats been brewing in that region for a very long time I just cannot take that route right now.

This is related to why I keep mentioning how laughable I found the 'end of history' claims that were made when the Soviet Union was toast. There was a big shift in power, an end to one sort of shit balance and stalemate, and end to one way of framing the order of global power. But there was no genuine end to 'real politick/sphere of influences type shit', only a lull and the shifting of that game to different fronts, different forms of competition. But some of the old ways were never really lurking all that far away, power struggles could always trigger them again, and the way various countries with sizeable military might behave in such circumstances has not fundamentally changed.
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Good stuff, but as I'm sure you know it's been happening elsewhere and the media has been dissuaded somehow. I'll be honest, I'm talking about Afghanistan and Yemen, and I'm sure that list could be extended.
 
elbows said:
Well unfortunately the end of the original cold war, one of the superpowers being much diminished and not so super, the changed nature of what that player could and would be prepared to do, did not prevent Ukraine from still falling within the bloody realm of 'real politick/sphere of influences type shit'. Not even when other stuff you describe such as war and invasion being more easily justified if its a dictatorship rather than a modern democracy is added to the mix. Because the value we place on democracy doesnt end up counting for so much when the shit hits the fan, not even in western countries that like to use the concepts of democracy and freedom in their pretty speeches.

I cannot claim at this stage to know whether the eventual full ramifications of this war will be closer to the unparalleled stuff you claim, or the alternative context I've offered. The current rhetoric from many nations is not a reliable guide as to what stances will be taken months and years down the line, so I'll just have to wait and see. Especially as we dont know how long the initial fall of Ukraine will take, or how many casualties that will entail. And its certainly not that I dont care or seek to downplay the horror. I'm just trying to avoid getting too giddy about matters, in case the rug is pulled from under our feet a little further down the line via the rhetoric of our own side, in terms of the extent that our nations and media will treat this war and what follows as quite so large a moment in this history of Europe as you suggest. The rhetoric today implies that level of gravitas is being attached to this war, but that may not last. I'm jaded by the way they can jerk us around on this front as the months go by, especially when it comes in the wake of events that we were previously encouraged to believe were unthinkable. It would be easier for me to talk about this terrible war if I could pretend what Putin is doing to Ukraine was a massive shock to me, something I felt I could only explain in terms of him personally having lost his mind and made a huge unfathomable misstep, but because that would not be my honest opinion of whats been brewing in that region for a very long time I just cannot take that route right now.

This is related to why I keep mentioning how laughable I found the 'end of history' claims that were made when the Soviet Union was toast. There was a big shift in power, an end to one sort of shit balance and stalemate, and end to one way of framing the order of global power. But there was no genuine end to 'real politick/sphere of influences type shit', only a lull and the shifting of that game to different fronts, different forms of competition. But some of the old ways were never really lurking all that far away, power struggles could always trigger them again, and the way various countries with sizeable military might behave in such circumstances has not fundamentally changed.
Click to expand...
Agree that real politick type shit didnt end with the cold war - wasnt what i was implying. I take your point about "The current rhetoric from many nations is not a reliable guide as to what stances will be taken months and years down the line, so I'll just have to wait and see." - nobody knows what the fuck is going to hapen now (which makes it all the more scary). My analysis - such as it is - is more based on my personal shock of whats happening and then trying to work out why it feels so gobsmacking.
I know Ive never been more shitted up by a crises - significantly more than 9/11 or covid - because its well within the realms of possibility that the nation that has just launched the biggest European war since 1945 and has the biggest nuclear arsenal on the planet is in the grip of a paranoid madman. So i really hope it is a continuation of the same old grim geo-political shit.
 
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