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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

bimble said:
What the hell is going on
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Russification in action. This has been done for at least the last 100 years. Forced removal of Ukrainians to slightly less temperate parts of Russia in Butlins style accommodation, banning of the language in all state run services and education, not employing Ukrainian only speakers in education and the civil service....

That eastern Ukraine has a high proportion of Russian speakers is partly down to these policies and also because a lot of ethnically Russian people were moved there to fill the empty villages after the famine.
 
bimble said:
That’s what people are being reminded of, they’re talking about what happened to their grandparents.it rings those bells for me too tbh.
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Yeah. The only way they can really hold those areas is if they remove anyone who shows any resistance. Both my paternal grandparents, an aunt and a good few distant relations all died in Russian gulags.
 
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nogojones said:
Yeah. The only way they can really hold those areas is if they remove ayone who shows any resistance. Both my paternal grandparents, an aunt and a good few distant relations all died in Russian gulags.
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I’m full of an impulse that says ‘but surely they can’t get away with that now, in the age of TikTok’ but idk why really.
 
nogojones said:
Russification in action. This has been done for at least the last 100 years. Forced removal of Ukrainians to slightly less temperate parts of Russia in Butlins style accommodation, banning of the language in all state run services and education, not employing Ukrainian only speakers in education and the civil service....

That eastern Ukraine has a high proportion of Russian speakers is partly down to these policies and also because a lot of ethnically Russian people were moved there to fill the empty villages after the famine.
Click to expand...

In some cases people returned to their 'empty' villages after having fled the famine and found Russians living in their homes.
 
Obviously, the occupied areas were excluded from polling and its only a sample of 1000 but I was surprised at these results tbh

en.interfax.com.ua

Some 93% of Ukrainians believe in victory, 89% against temporary truce with Russia – poll

The vast majority of Ukrainians, 93%, believe that Ukraine will be able to repel the attack of the Russian Federation, while confidence in victory dominates in all regions of the country, according to a poll conducted by the Rating sociological group on March 18.
en.interfax.com.ua en.interfax.com.ua
 
The39thStep said:
Obviously, the occupied areas were excluded from polling and its only a sample of 1000 but I was surprised at these results tbh

en.interfax.com.ua

Some 93% of Ukrainians believe in victory, 89% against temporary truce with Russia – poll

The vast majority of Ukrainians, 93%, believe that Ukraine will be able to repel the attack of the Russian Federation, while confidence in victory dominates in all regions of the country, according to a poll conducted by the Rating sociological group on March 18.
en.interfax.com.ua en.interfax.com.ua
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I wonder what was going on in the 70's world when the pollster rang.... On a scale of 1 to 5 , how do rate your chances of being able to MLAW the tank you mentioned
 
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Zelensky interview I just saw a bit of, he says he thinks it’s possible that Putin actually believes that Ukraine is overrun with nazis, that the ‘information bunker’ he’s in is extreme and so these denazification ideas may be genuine not cynical pretexts or excuses. Says this frightens him because if it’s true it may lead to extreme acts inspired by that belief.
 
Bit more on this view of Nazism in NYT (not sure about rest of article, leave it to people with actual knowledge etc etc)

Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin analyst who appears frequently on state television, claims that Ukraine’s modern-day Nazis are not anti-Jewish but anti-Russian — because that is the agenda that he claims Western intelligence agencies set for them. In Russia’s increasingly convoluted propaganda narrative, reprised by Mr. Putin in his speech Wednesday, the West is backing Ukraine’s “Nazis” as a way to degrade Ukraine’s Russian heritage and use the country as a platform to destroy Russia.
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“We are being convinced again and again that the Kyiv regime, for which its Western masters have set the task of creating an aggressive ‘anti-Russia,’ is indifferent to the fate of the people of Ukraine themselves,” Mr. Putin said.


Mr. Markov says the Kremlin started using the “Nazi” terminology to “get through to Western politicians and media” about the necessity of invading Ukraine. But the use of the word also appears geared toward Russians, for whom remembrance of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany remains perhaps the single most powerful element of a unifying national identity.
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From the point of view of Russian society, today’s Ukrainian fascists are successors to the cause of the fascism of that time,” Mr. Markov said, echoing a Kremlin talking point.
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www.nytimes.com

Why Vladimir Putin Invokes Nazis to Justify His Invasion of Ukraine (Published 2022)

The language of Russia’s invasion has been dominated by the word “Nazi” — a puzzling assertion about a country whose leader is Jewish.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
Oh dear, how sad, etc...

Russia’s deputy Black Sea fleet commander, Andrey Paliy, has been killed in Ukraine, Russia has confirmed. He is said to have died during the fighting in the Mariupol region.

Paliy was about to be promoted to rear admiral. LINK
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bimble said:
A very non triumphant case for ‘Russia is going to loose the war’ .The assumptions leading to it are spelled out.
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It's probably worth pointing out that her think tank (ISW) called this iteration of the Russian campaign as having "culminated" yesterday. Most analysts seemed to think this (the calling of the culmination) was a major development.

Looks like we could even be in for some 21st century version of trench warfare from hereon in. Plenty of evidence for it on the Russian side now.
 
Diamond said:
It's probably worth pointing out that her think tank (ISW) called this iteration of the Russian campaign as having "culminated" yesterday. Most analysts seemed to think this (the calling of the culmination) was a major development.

Looks like we could even be in for some 21st century version of trench warfare from hereon in. Plenty of evidence for it on the Russian side now.
Click to expand...

Problem is that they (probably) can't do that... More commentary on the ISW stuff (from upthread, but I'll unroll and repost it):

threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App

@PhillipsPOBrien: There is a lot of discussion about Russia moving to a strategy of attrition. If so, that’s a sign of failure and desperation. They will run out of forces in Ukraine before the Ukrainians, unless...…
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com

Also another Trent Telenko logistics thing as endorsed by kebabking upthread:

threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @TrentTelenko on Thread Reader App

@TrentTelenko: Alright Lady's & Gentlemen, boys and girls, it is time for another Truck logistics thread🧵 for this latest Russian Invasion of Ukraine. In it we are going to discuss the concept of "Operational Attrit...…
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com

I might as well stick in the other Phillips O'Brien thread on reporting Russian gains, and the one you quoted (well, quoted bimble quoting) for ease of reference.

threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien on Thread Reader App

@PhillipsPOBrien: A thread about how we report supposed victories in war (this one and others), why they dont matter nearly as much as people claim, and how they actually deceive us into understanding what really ma...…
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com
threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @JennyCafarella on Thread Reader App

@JennyCafarella: #Ukraine defeated the initial phase of #Russia’s invasion. On what basis can/should we evaluate Ukraine’s success or failure in this war? This thread will unpack a few key concepts & arguments 1/ So...…
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com
 
strung out said:
A useful thread on the reporting of Russian 'victories' and 'gains', and why the way they're presented isn't nearly as catastrophic or terminal to Ukraine's chances as the headlines like to make out.

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True... Likewise for Ukrainian "victories".
I do object to the comment "journalists need to think what they're doing when they are reporting this". The implication is there's a propaganda war on and they should keep quiet about it?
 
ska invita said:
True... Likewise for Ukrainian "victories".
I do object to the comment "journalists need to think what they're doing when they are reporting this". The implication is there's a propaganda war on and they should keep quiet about it?
Click to expand...

I genuinely can't see how you've got that from his comments. He's arguing against jumping on visually striking events and extrapolating the course of a war from them.
 
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