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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

ucking hell. But what then, how does this end? What would winning look like for Russia?

Short term or long term?

Short term it's state TV showing a recreation of the Red Army hoisting the Hammer and Sickle over a shattered Berlin, but in Kyiv and with the Russian flag, and honking off about clearing out a nest of Nazi's while very loud patriotic music blares out.

That's probably as far as Vlad has got.

Long term?

Fuck alone knows.

What will happen when the banks stop working, when the oligarchs lose many of their assets, and when the casualty rates start to become public knowledge - don't know....
 
Honestly, and I do know this is an absolutely fucked up and terrible response that would end up nowhere good, but I have moments of fuck it let's get rid of Putin and the regime somehow (no idea how) even if it's very costly now, maybe if it's done decisively and over-whelmingly it'd be better than this dragging on and then fuck knows what comes next.
Ripping the plaster off always seems like the best option to the outsider doing the ripping. It never seems like the best option to the patient who is being ripped.
 
I read somewhere that Russia is self sufficient in basic foodstuffs, but idk if that’s true or propaganda. Disaster either way, the impacts on normal people there.

ETA quite interesting, concerted & successful effort to become self sufficient:
Yes it is - they make stuff like cheese etc themselves and have their own brands of most stuff so don't import very much from the west at all. However their own versions of stuff like 'Italian' cheese etc. often isn't very good so you hear people complaining over it.
 
Ripping the plaster off always seems like the best option to the outsider doing the ripping. It never seems like the best option to the patient who is being ripped.

Yeah, of course. And I totally think giving up the DPR and LPR and making some other concessions etc. would have been a price worth paying, but seems like that was never what Putin etc was solely interested in, so fuck knows how this ends up.
 
The sanctions actually helped stop Russia relying on exports, all they did was piss people off who liked foreign food and cause a bit of an inconvenience. I have no idea what 'should' happen given that i don't think I'm really a marxist any more but I'm very worried about the effect some of the western responses are gonna have. He could easily use the sanctions as an excuse to extend even more control and target people with links overseas.

A lot of what he's done (banning flights back to the uk etc) has been pre emptive rather something another country has decided. Currently I know people that have residency in the uk and are stuck over there.
 
An ominous interview with Fiona Hill (Russia expert, ex-US intelligence and daughter of a County Durham miner): ‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
I'm left with a much better understanding of all this after reading that. I'm also left with a greater sense of unease.

This needs to go wrong for Putin. I think he'll take Ukraine and install a puppet government but I hope he gets bogged down for years in a protracted guerilla conflict.

Edit: the title of that piece is really shit and doesn't do it justice. Nukes are only a sentence or two in a much wider discussion about Putin's motivations and their consequences.
 
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Yes it is - they make stuff like cheese etc themselves and have their own brands of most stuff so don't import very much from the west at all. However their own versions of stuff like 'Italian' cheese etc. often isn't very good so you hear people complaining over it.

Presumably will mean them limiting exports... Globally that is not going to be good for food supply, especially with Ukraine's agriculture presumably being fucked.
 
Are you sure about that though are you saying they don't have the capability
They don't Russian defence budgets is less than £100 billion
Uk defence budget is £70 billion
Add Russia has 5000 odd nukes and nearly a million conscripts your not also buying vast numbers of high tech weapons.
Pilot hours sophisticated logistics etc etc.
America has capabilitys nobody else can match
 
Watching RT is bizarre, they're showing the some footage as Al Jazeera & Sky of what appears to be cluster bomb attacks in Kharviv, but saying Russia denies responsibility, thus implying Ukraine are bombing their own people. Footage of a massive explosion outside the regional administration building in Kharviv, is brushed over with a comment that there was no Russian forces in the area, ignoring the fact that the missile was probably fired from some distance away.

OFCOM has now started 15 different investigations into their coverage, with the promise that they will be speedy, so I guess it will disappear very soon.

The EU expects their ban to come within the next few days, and it will probably include the internet.

A spokesman for Thierry Breton, the EU’s internal market commissioner, told us the ban is “expected to cover all means of distribution or transmission, including internet video sharing platforms and applications”.

He also confirmed that the EU’s executive intends to use a sanction legal instrument for the RT ban, rather than trying to amend the existing Audiovisual Media Services Directive — likely so it can move faster.

A separate Commission source suggested the ban could even be in place within a matter of days.

Link also reports on action being taken by Twitter & Meta/Facebook against Russian media.

 
Watching RT is bizarre, they're showing the some footage as Al Jazeera & Sky of what appears to be cluster bomb attacks in Kharviv, but saying Russia denies responsibility, thus implying Ukraine are bombing their own people. Footage of a massive explosion outside the regional administration building in Kharviv, is brushed over with a comment that there was no Russian forces in the area, ignoring the fact that the missile was probably fired from some distance away.

The prick interviewed on channel 4 news last night was going on in that way. Not sure if this already has been posted, but it is quite an interview.

 
I'd unequivocally give all the support ukraine asks for. I know I wouldn't want to be ruled and dictated to by Putin after this bullshit.
The Ukrainian President may not mind dying and taking the country with him, and that may be true for many other Ukrainians, but there is a duty from those arming Ukraine to both bring peace and save Ukrainian lives, and even infrastructure.

There is no point sending endless arms in if the war cant be won by the West by proxy - and frankly I dont think it can. Not unless you are prepared to escalate to potential World War. And if the Russians take over soon they may also get those weapons themselves.

If you dont want to be ruled and dictated by Putin then you have to reckon with the fact that open warfare against an enormous Russian army is likely not the way to achieve that.

I despise war,and the arms industry, and the armchair generals sending in weapons without fighting themselves, and only have anti-war bones in my body, and dont want people to die and suffer needlessly, so thats my perspective. I think we're at a stage where Ukranian people have made their point, the world has heard it, but will need to retreat against the oncoming occupying forces. More heavy weaponry doesnt help that.
 
The Ukrainian President may not mind dying and taking the country with him, and that may be true for many other Ukrainians, but there is a duty from those arming Ukraine to both bring peace and save Ukrainian lives, and even infrastructure.

There is no point sending endless arms in if the war cant be won by the West by proxy - and frankly I dont think it can. Not unless you are prepared to escalate to potential World War. And if the Russians take over soon they may also get those weapons themselves.

If you dont want to be ruled and dictated by Putin then you have to reckon with the fact that open warfare against an enormous Russian army is likely not the way to achieve that.

I despise war,and the arms industry, and the armchair generals sending in weapons without fighting themselves, and only have anti-war bones in my body, and dont want people to die and suffer needlessly, so thats my perspective. I think we're at a stage where Ukranian people have made their point, the world has heard it, but will need to retreat against the oncoming occupying forces. More heavy weaponry doesnt help that.

I think it is still not impossible for Ukraine to win.

Plan A failed, Plan B looks terrifying. However, many oligarchs are speaking out against Putin and he seems apparently to be hiding away in a bunker far from the Kremlin. No Russian General wants to go down as the butcher of Kyiv - if Ukraine can continue to hold strong against the reinforcements, I don't think a coup against Putin is out of the question.

Let's see in a week from now.
 
The Ukrainian President may not mind dying and taking the country with him, and that may be true for many other Ukrainians, but there is a duty from those arming Ukraine to both bring peace and save Ukrainian lives, and even infrastructure.

There is no point sending endless arms in if the war cant be won by the West by proxy - and frankly I dont think it can. Not unless you are prepared to escalate to potential World War. And if the Russians take over soon they may also get those weapons themselves.

If you dont want to be ruled and dictated by Putin then you have to reckon with the fact that open warfare against an enormous Russian army is likely not the way to achieve that.

I despise war,and the arms industry, and the armchair generals sending in weapons without fighting themselves, and only have anti-war bones in my body, and dont want people to die and suffer needlessly, so thats my perspective. I think we're at a stage where Ukranian people have made their point, the world has heard it, but will need to retreat against the oncoming occupying forces. More heavy weaponry doesnt help that.
Radio 4 doing its best to lobby for a no-fly zone this morning. Bring it on-nuclear war!

If loads of Ukrainians are going to die, we might as well go with them.

I wouldn't mind, but half the daft twats don't even know how to pronounce a Russian surname.
 
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