DaveCinzano
WATCH OUT, GEORGE, HE'S GOT A SCREWDRIVER!
Sackable offence - no longer will it be 'Urban75 Poster Kaka Tim' but instead 'Kaka Tim posting on Urban75 (with no guarantee of permanence)', with all Club 518 privileges suspended
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
The stuff I'm seeing suggests the Russians are working harder to keep the Ukrainian Air Force on the ground, and that they are getting better at keeping their SAM systems operational while covering a moving point.
I too think this is likely to be the endgame for 'its not working' - the Russians have gone back to their doctrine of throwing the kitchen sink at a problem and it's probably going to work for them.
There's another idea that's been floating around - that Putin deliberately sent B units, and not enough of them, into Ukraine while keeping his A units, and a wedge of his B units in Belarus in order to soak up the Ukrainians most effective weapons. That way he depletes Ukraine's arsenal on units that he doesn't depend on to fight a war with NATO, and then when Ukr is almost exhausted he sends his remaining B units and some A units in to finish the job without getting chewed up - these units can then be quickly redeployed back onto the NATO border.
I wouldn't be surprised if there's some truth in that, but it doesn't explain why his airborne units performed so poorly, nor why the logistics turned into a shitshow, or why the Russian Air Force hasn't had anything like the effect their doctrine, and planning, calls for.
I too think this is likely to be the endgame for 'its not working' - the Russians have gone back to their doctrine of throwing the kitchen sink at a problem and it's probably going to work for them.
There's another idea that's been floating around - that Putin deliberately sent B units, and not enough of them, into Ukraine while keeping his A units, and a wedge of his B units in Belarus in order to soak up the Ukrainians most effective weapons. That way he depletes Ukraine's arsenal on units that he doesn't depend on to fight a war with NATO, and then when Ukr is almost exhausted he sends his remaining B units and some A units in to finish the job without getting chewed up - these units can then be quickly redeployed back onto the NATO border.
I wouldn't be surprised if there's some truth in that, but it doesn't explain why his airborne units performed so poorly, nor why the logistics turned into a shitshow, or why the Russian Air Force hasn't had anything like the effect their doctrine, and planning, calls for.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
More in the spirit of the thread topic maybe you'd have to preface every post with something like this
Данное сообщение (материал) создано и (или) распространено иностранным средством массовой информации, выполняющим функции иностранного агента, и (или) российским юридическим лицом, выполняющим функции иностранного агента.
This message (material) was created and (or) distributed by a foreign mass media outlet performing the functions of a foreign agent and (or) a Russian legal entity performing the functions of a foreign agent.
Данное сообщение (материал) создано и (или) распространено иностранным средством массовой информации, выполняющим функции иностранного агента, и (или) российским юридическим лицом, выполняющим функции иностранного агента.
This message (material) was created and (or) distributed by a foreign mass media outlet performing the functions of a foreign agent and (or) a Russian legal entity performing the functions of a foreign agent.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
That's a POS who I think has been over there for years and was on youtube.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Nah. It can be tempting to reinterpret the fuckups of powerful people as strokes of genius everyone else was too simple to understand.
Putin didn't throw everything at the invasion because he thought it would be easy, and he miscalculated. There's no way he planned to be in the dire position he's in.
Militarily, Kyiv can still fall. But even if it does, this is a huge catastrophe for Putin.
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RileyOBlimey
Well-Known Member
An ominous interview with Fiona Hill (Russia expert, ex-US intelligence and daughter of a County Durham miner): ‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
gosub
~#
Barely an inconvienience.. Nice to see Mr Putin out and about today.
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Raheem
Well-Known Member
It's cover for a long table.
Humberto
talk to the hand
Is there a factor that this is a fucking jolly, vanity project for an ageing dictator? I think so.
I'd unequivocally give all the support ukraine asks for. I know I wouldn't want to be ruled and dictated to by Putin after this bullshit.
He's an arsehole.
Escalation? It's basically just theft of a country and it's resources.
I'd unequivocally give all the support ukraine asks for. I know I wouldn't want to be ruled and dictated to by Putin after this bullshit.
He's an arsehole.
Escalation? It's basically just theft of a country and it's resources.
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
could we have an ebola/omicron recombinant virus to take this off the headlines pretty please?
8ball
1,200 lights
BBC confirming that.
bimble
floofy
I’m not anti-mad at all, I have diagnoses of my own. Im using the word because I think it’s generality is better than some attempted diagnosis of what ails him.
None of those words you’ve suggested could possibly explain the 15 meter tables.
It seems relevant to ask to what extent the man who chose to start this war shares a perception of reality with anyone else.
Just something to put Putin's Ukraine folly into perspective.
In 2013, Russia had an economy of 2.3 trillion. Sanctions over Crimea saw it decline to a 1.3 trillion economy by 2016. At present, it is a 1.65 trillion economy, substantially smaller than pre-Crimea.
So, as a result thus far of Putin’s obsession with historic greatness, Russia's economy is smaller than that of Canada and South Korea and is competing against Brazil to be 11th largest economy. If not for Crimea, it would likely be competing with France for 7th largest economy, if it had good growth in those years it is also conceivable it would be the 5th largest economy.
And after this? Hard to say how hard sanctions will hit, but I'd say at the bare minimum, within a year or two Russia will be competing with Mexico to be the 15th largest economy. If the economy shrinks from a 1.6 trillion to a 1 trillion economy - quite possible as these are far more severe sanctions than those on 2014 which reduced it from a 2.3 trillion economy to a 1.3 trillion economy - then the Russian economy may end up smaller than that of Iran, Indonesia and the Netherlands, barely in the top 20.
It would seem that Putin's obsession with Ukraine is Russia's greatest obstacle to greatness. He is leading Russia to ruin.
In 2013, Russia had an economy of 2.3 trillion. Sanctions over Crimea saw it decline to a 1.3 trillion economy by 2016. At present, it is a 1.65 trillion economy, substantially smaller than pre-Crimea.
So, as a result thus far of Putin’s obsession with historic greatness, Russia's economy is smaller than that of Canada and South Korea and is competing against Brazil to be 11th largest economy. If not for Crimea, it would likely be competing with France for 7th largest economy, if it had good growth in those years it is also conceivable it would be the 5th largest economy.
And after this? Hard to say how hard sanctions will hit, but I'd say at the bare minimum, within a year or two Russia will be competing with Mexico to be the 15th largest economy. If the economy shrinks from a 1.6 trillion to a 1 trillion economy - quite possible as these are far more severe sanctions than those on 2014 which reduced it from a 2.3 trillion economy to a 1.3 trillion economy - then the Russian economy may end up smaller than that of Iran, Indonesia and the Netherlands, barely in the top 20.
It would seem that Putin's obsession with Ukraine is Russia's greatest obstacle to greatness. He is leading Russia to ruin.
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Proper grim waking up to the news this morning, it certainly seems to be the start of an very serious escalation compared to what we've seen up to now, Sky has been showing verified footage of overnight attacks on various civilian areas, across a number of cities, including the use of what seems to be cluster bombs in their second largest city, Kharviv. They also had a reporter in a Kyiv hospital, where increasing numbers of the injured are being admitted, and fears are growing as to how they will cope.
Al Jazeera is showing similar footage, and both are reporting on a major strike on a Ukraine military base just outside Kyiv, killing over 70, and that the 40 mile long Russian convoy is now only about 10-12 miles from the centre of Kyiv. Ukraine has claimed a thermobaric vacuum bomb has been used, but this is unverified, and no details on where it has supposed to have been used.
I think it's going to be a very tough few days, as Russia throws everything at it, and it's going to be a real struggle to resist such overwhelming force.
There was one uplifting piece of footage showing Ukrainians surrounding some Russian tanks & troops, whilst chanting for them to go home, very brave of people.
Al Jazeera is showing similar footage, and both are reporting on a major strike on a Ukraine military base just outside Kyiv, killing over 70, and that the 40 mile long Russian convoy is now only about 10-12 miles from the centre of Kyiv. Ukraine has claimed a thermobaric vacuum bomb has been used, but this is unverified, and no details on where it has supposed to have been used.
I think it's going to be a very tough few days, as Russia throws everything at it, and it's going to be a real struggle to resist such overwhelming force.
There was one uplifting piece of footage showing Ukrainians surrounding some Russian tanks & troops, whilst chanting for them to go home, very brave of people.
(Usual caveats apply: size of GDP misses much of value and includes much that is of no value. Nevertheless, dramatic falls in output do indicate serious problems).
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
The southern city of Kherson is now totally surrounded, and the mayor has confirmed this report from a local journalist that checkpoints have been established, and I guess we are going to be hearing of this happening to other cities over the coming hours & days.
bimble
floofy
Good interview. Frightening as hell. Not all about the nukes, title misleading.
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
So what we feared would happen is happening. It was wishful thinking to hope that the Russian forces would remain as incompetent as they seemingly began. Why would they keep rolling troops into heavily defended areas in small numbers to be picked off, when they can stand-off these cities and shell the fuck out of them?
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
To get GDP or any other measure of dough you need to produce something. This shitshow is forcing those who buy Russia’s main products, oil and gas to move away from them faster than they were going to. So what does that leave them to sell? Caviar and vodka?
bimble
floofy
I read somewhere that Russia is self sufficient in basic foodstuffs, but idk if that’s true or propaganda. Disaster either way, the impacts on normal people there.
ETA quite interesting, concerted & successful effort to become self sufficient:
www.reuters.com
ETA quite interesting, concerted & successful effort to become self sufficient:
Russian ban on Western food bears fruit in coronavirus era
A Russian decision to ban most Western food imports, taken in anger six years ago, is helping Moscow navigate the coronavirus crisis, giving it enough homegrown stocks to withstand panic buying and greater leeway on its agricultural export policy.
www.reuters.com
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I think it's likely that all societies have words to describe people who don't appear to conform to a widely shared view of reality and are driven to behave in anti-social or destructive ways by their own fantasies and that these words are not the same as the psychiatric categorisation of 'mentally ill' with a diagnosable condition. Just like people have attempted to make sense of others long before psychology became a formal system of ideas and categorisations. I wonder why you appear to give 'psychology' so much authority that ordinary human sense-making based on observation is described as 'cod'.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
One of the things that will happen, I think reasonably quickly now, is that the phone signals are going to go down - the Russians are heavily into electronic warfare and jamming, and this kind of stuff will be heavily represented in that big column heading to Kyiv.
I also think it's going to be a Grozny style bloodbath.
The 'high speed, low drag' proponents have humiliated both Putin and the Army by fucking it up so publicly, and now the big, heavy, doctrine and culture is back with a vengeance.
I also think it's going to be a Grozny style bloodbath.
The 'high speed, low drag' proponents have humiliated both Putin and the Army by fucking it up so publicly, and now the big, heavy, doctrine and culture is back with a vengeance.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Yeah, my understanding is that would amount to a declaration of war pretty much as NATO (only possible ones that could enforce it) and Russian planes would clash almost immediately.
bimble
floofy
Fucking hell. But what then, how does this end? What would winning look like for Russia?
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Honestly, and I do know this is an absolutely fucked up and terrible response that would end up nowhere good, but I have moments of fuck it let's get rid of Putin and the regime somehow (no idea how) even if it's very costly now, maybe if it's done decisively and over-whelmingly it'd be better than this dragging on and then fuck knows what comes next.
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Sadly yes, it was all fairly enviable, it seems to fit the suggestion that there was a major miscalculation as to how easy it would be, and now the reports saying that Putin is frustrated with the slow progress and has started lashing out at those around him and demanding swifter progress, which seems very plausible.
It strikes me that had Putin been capable of 21st century thinking, he could, ironically enough, pretty much have had the thing he wants without a drop of blood being spilled. The modern way is cultural hegemony rather than military hegemony and Russia had a huge head start on achieving that across the whole Baltic and Black Sea region. If they’d concentrated from the outset on shared cultural assumptions about the world, shared history, shared language and so on in an open and friendly way, Ukraine would no doubt now be to Russia something as the UK is to the US. But by taking the opposite approach, he’ll never have that kind of alliance even if he owns the land.
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