Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

I think it's likely that all societies have words to describe people who don't appear to conform to a widely shared view of reality and are driven to behave in anti-social or destructive ways by their own fantasies and that these words are not the same as the psychiatric categorisation of 'mentally ill' with a diagnosable condition. Just like people have attempted to make sense of others long before psychology became a formal system of ideas and categorisations. I wonder why you appear to give 'psychology' so much authority that ordinary human sense-making based on observation is described as 'cod'.

i'd say it's almost certain that all societies have words to describe people who don't appear to conform to a widely shared view of reality. but of course a widely shared view of reality doesn't make it rational - it was i think nietzsche who said that madness in individuals is rare but in groups, peoples, ages, it is the norm.

where i've said 'cod psychology' i've meant it as i understood the term - drawing conclusions about someone's state of mind on the basis of scanty evidence. yeh i may have had that a mite wrong. but i don't think that you can draw accurate conclusions when every image of putin - as it is for so many other leaders - is likely choreographed. i don't suppose he or biden goes on telly and projects their actual persona: george w bush, as another example, famously much more eloquent away from the cameras or gordon brown, equally famously angry away from the cameras. so to try to draw conclusions from what's effectively staged seems to me a foolish ploy. especially at a time when a) there's a vast barrage of propaganda going on saying how putin's losing it, and b) there are of course other explanations for any apparently aberrant behaviour: i've mentioned nixon upthread.

this isn't to say that putin's a cold clinical calculating machine, but that it's in my view very difficult to read him accurately at the moment when the signals that are being sent out may be intentional and we're all subject to campaigns of persuasion.

in addition, there's scores of examples of people saying on threads across the boards 'don't associate mental illness with violence'. i'm surprised to see it's now thought fine to use terms of mental illness when it's someone almost universally detested.

 

[Idris2002]

Thing is a doubt Ukraine has the capacity to make much of dent in a column that big. I am sure they are throwing whatever they can at it it just won't have much of an impact.

It's 65km long according to Deutsche Welle, now! Knock out the lead vehicles and you should be able to at least delay its arrival, surely?

 

[RD2003]

You know this is a line people roll out when they don't want to say what they really think?

Which is up to you but doing this probably creates a worse impression than being honest.

Edit - or if you are unsure then say that lots of us are confused and uncertain that's the thing about real word events, they are a fucking mess

Is this turning into a competition to 'make him say the right thing?'

It's clear what I think if you read my posts in the thread.

Furthermore, I care nothing for the 'opinions about me' ('me me me...') of people who don't know me and wouldn't care if I dropped dead on the spot (as I wouldn't if they did.)

Now get back on topic.

 

[emanymton]

The whole discussion about the use of the word mad and is Putin "mad" Is really interesting.

But might be best spun of into its own thread. If only we had a separate forum to group these threads together.

Hint, hint editor

 

[Pickman's model]

It's 65km long according to Deutsche Welle, now! Knock out the lead vehicles and you should be able to at least delay its arrival, surely?

unless they're complete shitheads they'll have a screen around the front of it and air support to deter or ward off threats.

 

[rubbershoes]

I hope you realise that your 'condemnation' of Russia doesn't actually affect anything?

Do you condemn Russia's actions?

 

[emanymton]

It's 65km long according to Deutsche Welle, now! Knock out the lead vehicles and you should be able to at least delay its arrival, surely?

Shure slow it down but it will get there in the end and not be much smaller when it does.

 

[Idris2002]

unless they're complete shitheads

 

[Pickman's model]

The whole discussion about the use of the word mad and is Putin "mad" Is really interesting.

But might be best spun of into its own thread. If only we had a separate forum to group these threads together.

Hint, hint editor

the only argument against having a forum seems to be there might not be enough threads. and if that's the case in a few weeks we can chuck them back into world p&p.

 

[emanymton]

Is this turning into a competition to 'make him say the right thing?'

It's clear what I think if you read my posts in the thread.

Furthermore, I care nothing for the 'opinions about me' ('me me me...') of people who don't know me and wouldn't care if I dropped dead on the spot (as I wouldn't if they did.)

Now get back on topic.

No it is about the fact the we will draw our own conclusions about your reluctance to say anything. And frankly those conclusion are probably worse that realty. But like I say up to you.

My last word on this.

 

[RD2003]

Do you condemn Russia's actions?

No. Or maybe yes.

 

[RD2003]

No it is about the fact the we will draw our own conclusions about your reluctance to say anything. And frankly those conclusion are probably worse that realty. But like I say up to you.

My last word on this.

I've already said that you can read what I think (which matters as little as what you think) by searching my posts.

Now go away.

 

[existentialist]

I've already said that you can read what I think by searching my posts.

Now go away.

Get over yourself, FFS.

 

[Pickman's model]

Idris2002 i don't say it's impossible: but at this stage in the conflict you'd think that the commanders happy to plough ahead without air cover and without a reconnaissance screen would be numbered among the dead or disgraced.

 

[Pickman's model]

I've already said that you can read what I think by searching my posts.

Now go away.

in that case i am astonished there's been so much comment about your contributions, much ado about nothing

 

[contadino]

Here's the stupendously long table he made the cabinet members and bank officials sit at the end of today (post 4151)

View attachment 312331

Max Seddon on twitter

Maybe you're reading that wrong. Maybe nobody wanted to sit next to him so they sent him down to the other end of the table....?

 

[andysays]

The whole discussion about the use of the word mad and is Putin "mad" Is really interesting.

But might be best spun of into its own thread. If only we had a separate forum to group these threads together.

Hint, hint editor

Yeah, there seems to be a lot of stuff on this thread which doesn't belong here, at least in my opinion.

And while there might be an argument for launching a separate forum, it's also the responsibility of individual posters to try and avoid cluttering up this thread with stuff that doesn't really belong.

 

[RD2003]

Get over yourself, FFS.

I'm not the one who started writing about me.

 

[andysays]

It might be a bit early, but has any news come out of the negotiations which I thought had started yesterday?

 

[ska invita]

I take all your points on this. What happens, though, if Putin invades Moldova, or Finland, or Georgia again, or wherever? Do we let armed dictators just do whatever they feel like? If I lived in Ukraine right now I wouldn't feel like retreating. Where to? Why should I?

My post was particularly in regards to the suggestion the west sends in as much arms as possible to Ukraine, despite a military win being IMO impossible.

There is some degrees of sheepishness about US+European response here because they know full well they were playing with fire in their attempts to win this slice of the global board for themselves and crucially not be prepared to defend it with their own militaries.

When heavily outnumbered there are different ways to resist dictators without last person standing warfare, both at the state level and at the citizen level, from nonviolent methods to guerilla warfare - often a combination of both based on what individual people want to do. At the state level now negotiations need energising and ramping up, not no fly zones.

Of your What If examples, I imagine each has its own dynamic - I am no expert but I would guess:
If Georgia happens again I cant imagine a different response than last time.
Russia taking on the Baltic States would trigger a NATO war

As to the wider question of the West dealing with armed dictators I would say history suggests we often support them in their endeavours when there is profit to be had. That has included Putin too. Not doing that is where to start in all this.

BTW dont presume to know how you would feel when surrounded by 40 miles worth of Russian military. Retreating from open heavily armed conflict when so heavily outgunned is rational, militarily and personally.

The outside hope you describe is exactly what I'm hoping to happen.

That outside hope is literally deadly. Military strategists have to weigh up the balance of forces and act on that, not outside hope.

BTW Fuck Putin obvs

 

[Cid]

It might be a bit early, but has any news come out of the negotiations which I thought had started yesterday?

As I recall there was some twitter stuff (originally from a Ukraine official I think) saying Russian positions were extremely biased and that negotiations were very difficult.

Don't think anything properly confirmed though.

 

[Sprocket.]

It might be a bit early, but has any news come out of the negotiations which I thought had started yesterday?

All I heard was that talks may resume later this week. May resume depending on how the situation unfolds I surmise.

 

[Pickman's model]

BTW dont presume to know how you would feel when surrounded by 40 miles worth of Russian military. Retreating from open heavily armed conflict when so heavily outgunned is rational, militarily and personally.

and at the same time a very difficult endeavour - the fighting retreat is supposed to be one of the most difficult military manoeuvres. but i know precisely how i'd feel when surrounded by forces like that - the cry would go up 'fresh trousers for pickman's model'

 

[existentialist]

I'm not the one who started writing about me.

You certainty appear to be keen to remedy that position.

 

[andysays]

As I recall there was some twitter stuff (originally from a Ukraine official I think) saying Russian positions were extremely biased and that negotiations were very difficult.

All I heard was that talks may resume later this week. May resume depending on how the situation unfolds I surmise.

Thanks both.

I guess it's understandable that any negotiations won't be making much headway while this new Russian offensive is going on.

 

[Sprocket.]

Being cynical I thought when Russia vetoed the US drafted motion to declare Russia’s invasion of Ukraine deplorable.
Followed quickly by the abstaining by China, India and the UAE, that maybe Russia’s intent was to flatten Ukraine and then offer the chance of investment in the rebuild to China, India and the UAE.
Seeing how war has for centuries been seen an opportunity to create obscene amounts of wealth. Just accept the casualties.

 

[Cid]

Being cynical I thought when Russia vetoed the US drafted motion to declare Russia’s invasion of Ukraine deplorable.
Followed quickly by the abstaining by China, India and the UAE, that maybe Russia’s intent was to flatten Ukraine and then offer the chance of investment in the rebuild to China, India and the UAE.
Seeing has how war has for centuries been seen as an opportunity to create obscene amounts of wealth. Just accept the casualties.

China already had extensive and productive relations with Ukraine though. China's general strategy in recent years has been soft power projection... And yes, infrastructure development is a major part of that, but I don't think rebuilding a shattered country with scant investment and a hostile populace fits into their current model. Especially not one where their normal tactics seem to have been working pretty well. May still be Russia's intent of course, intent and reality do not always match.

 

[Cid]

And of course China is heavily reliant on trade with what we should probably stop calling the west.

 

[LDC]

Get over yourself, FFS.

I've finally stuck him on ignore (think he's had me on ignore for a while). He was a cunt on Covid threads, now he's being a cunt here. Fuck them.

 

[Sprocket.]

China already had extensive and productive relations with Ukraine though. China's general strategy in recent years has been soft power projection... And yes, infrastructure development is a major part of that, but I don't think rebuilding a shattered country with scant investment and a hostile populace fits into their current model. May still be Russia's intent of course, intent and reality do not always match.

I knew about China’s infrastructure investment and was and am shocked at their reticence in calming Russia down.
I think there is a belief throughout Russia, China and India that they are in a position to pressure the West by being more belligerent, more hostile and possibly more brutal.