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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

andysays said:
Yeah, there seems to be a lot of stuff on this thread which doesn't belong here, at least in my opinion.

And while there might be an argument for launching a separate forum, it's also the responsibility of individual posters to try and avoid cluttering up this thread with stuff that doesn't really belong.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I'm just trying to use this thread to keep up with what's happening and I don't appreciate the booking holidays/diagnosing Putin chat it's fucking stupid.
 
ska invita said:
My post was particularly in regards to the suggestion the west sends in as much arms as possible to Ukraine, despite a military win being IMO impossible.

There is some degrees of sheepishness about US+European response here because they know full well they were playing with fire in their attempts to win this slice of the global board for themselves and crucially not be prepared to defend it with their own militaries.

When heavily outnumbered there are different ways to resist dictators without last person standing warfare, both at the state level and at the citizen level, from nonviolent methods to guerilla warfare - often a combination of both based on what individual people want to do. At the state level now negotiations need energising and ramping up, not no fly zones.

Of your What If examples, I imagine each has its own dynamic - I am no expert but I would guess:
If Georgia happens again I cant imagine a different response than last time.
Russia taking on the Baltic States would trigger a NATO war

As to the wider question of the West dealing with armed dictators I would say history suggests we often support them in their endeavours when there is profit to be had. That has included Putin too. Not doing that is where to start in all this.

BTW dont presume to know how you would feel when surrounded by 40 miles worth of Russian military. Retreating from open heavily armed conflict when so heavily outgunned is rational, militarily and personally.


That outside hope is literally deadly. Military strategists have to weigh up the balance of forces and act on that, not outside hope.

BTW Fuck Putin obvs
Click to expand...
I'm not giving advice to anyone. I wouldn't dream of it in this situation. I also don't know how I would react if I was on the ground, apart from being shit scared.
I'm also not advocating NATO involvement.
But this conflict is not about NATO. It's about a dictatorial Russian imperialist bastard and a completely callous military machine. You can't blame the Ukrainians. Or their president.
 
Sprocket. said:
I knew about China’s infrastructure investment and was and am shocked at their reticence in calming Russia down.
I think there is a belief throughout Russia, China and India that they are in a position to pressure the West by be more belligerent, more hostile and possibly more brutal.
Click to expand...

China and the CCP is a horribly complex beast to try and get your head around. Upthread there was talk of many of our assumptions about Russia being extensions of how Soviet Russia worked, and I suspect that's true of the CCP to a degree. They have a friendship treaty from 2001 that was just extended for 5 years... That was partly to do with sharing Russian military expertise and tech, but China in tech terms is in a vastly different position than it was 20 years ago. I think really the foundation of the relationship at the moment is essentially anti-US power, which speaks as much to failures in US diplomacy as it does to anything else. And yeah, I am ignoring human rights abuses there, no easy answers here.

e2a: Rimbaud posted a link to a SupChina article on something a while back, and that got me listening to their Sinica podcast... It has some good in-depth interviews/discussions etc on various aspects of China and is well worth a listen. Decidedly centre-left, but a lot of very useful info.
 
Kevbad the Bad said:
I'm not giving advice to anyone. I wouldn't dream of it in this situation. I also don't know how I would react if I was on the ground, apart from being shit scared.
I'm also not advocating NATO involvement.
But this conflict is not about NATO. It's about a dictatorial Russian imperialist bastard and a completely callous military machine. You can't blame the Ukrainians. Or their president.
Click to expand...
I agree with you

(apart form the bit about it not being about NATO)
 
Indeliblelink said:
Also weird that Google traffic maps is still working, showing which roads are blocked and traffic jam locations which as there's the curfew must be military [you'd assume soldiers would be told to turn off phones or banned from carrying them]. I read a tweet the other day saying people noticed the invasion start a few days ago when they noticed traffic jams being indicated at 5AM on the roads into Ukraine from Russia where the troop build ups had been.
Click to expand...
I see Google have now turned this off
www.bbc.com

Ukraine crisis: Google Maps live traffic data turned off in country

The live service has been shut down temporarily to protect users, but navigation features still work.
www.bbc.com
 
Cid said:
China and the CCP is a horribly complex beast to try and get your head around. Upthread there was talk of many of our assumptions about Russia being extensions of how Soviet Russia worked, and I suspect that's true of the CCP to a degree. They have a friendship treaty from 2001 that was just extended for 5 years... That was partly to do with sharing Russian military expertise and tech, but China in tech terms is in a vastly different position than it was 20 years ago. I think really the foundation of the relationship at the moment is essentially anti-US power, which speaks as much to failures in US diplomacy as it does to anything else. And yeah, I am ignoring human rights abuses there, no easy answers here.
Click to expand...
One of the images I recall from when I worked in the PRC for a short while, back in 2006, was everyday whilst traveling to work I would see coaches driving around with delegates from Russia and China visiting different factories and infrastructure facilities. It was obvious to me that there was a fair amount of connections being made.
I remember saying to one of my German work colleagues, it seems like there is a change in the world order coming. Laughing he said don’t talk to me about changing the world order.
 
ska invita said:
My post was particularly in regards to the suggestion the west sends in as much arms as possible to Ukraine, despite a military win being IMO impossible.

There is some degrees of sheepishness about US+European response here because they know full well they were playing with fire in their attempts to win this slice of the global board for themselves and crucially not be prepared to defend it with their own militaries.

When heavily outnumbered there are different ways to resist dictators without last person standing warfare, both at the state level and at the citizen level, from nonviolent methods to guerilla warfare - often a combination of both based on what individual people want to do. At the state level now negotiations need energising and ramping up, not no fly zones.

Of your What If examples, I imagine each has its own dynamic - I am no expert but I would guess:
If Georgia happens again I cant imagine a different response than last time.
Russia taking on the Baltic States would trigger a NATO war

As to the wider question of the West dealing with armed dictators I would say history suggests we often support them in their endeavours when there is profit to be had. That has included Putin too. Not doing that is where to start in all this.

BTW dont presume to know how you would feel when surrounded by 40 miles worth of Russian military. Retreating from open heavily armed conflict when so heavily outgunned is rational, militarily and personally.


That outside hope is literally deadly. Military strategists have to weigh up the balance of forces and act on that, not outside hope.

BTW Fuck Putin obvs
Click to expand...

Every time a country has defeated a superior invading enemy against the odds, outside hope has always been a decisive factor.
 
Kevbad the Bad said:
NATO is not the root cause. The root cause is Russian imperialism and a distorted view of the world. Poland and the Baltic states joined because of a history of being invaded and occupied. They have absolutely no intention of invading Russia. Neither does Ukraine.
Click to expand...
everyone joined (or at least everyone who joined in the 1990s) because the americans were handing out memberships like it was confetti. a better ploy would have been to incorporate russia into the world system rather than look for ways of excluding them. the existence of an anti-russian alliance, and we all knew nato was an anti-russian alliance, has played its part getting us all to where we are, and i'd say that it's a larger part than you suggest.
 
An unconsidered consequence of what's happening in Russia at the moment is that they're apparently expecting a wave of burglaries to kick-off.

People have been withdrawing their savings in dollars where possible and most of them are keeping them at home. Burglars know that many homes in Russia are now full of cash.
 
Sprocket. said:
One of the images I recall from when I worked in the PRC for a short while, back in 2006, was everyday whilst traveling to work I would see coaches driving around with delegates from Russia and China visiting different factories and infrastructure facilities. It was obvious to me that there was a fair amount of connections being made.
I remember saying to one of my German work colleagues, it seems like there is a change in the world order coming. Laughing he said don’t talk to me about changing the world order.
Click to expand...

Yeah, undoubtedly. Press in China I think is taking a very toned-down version of the Russian line, but largely staying silent. Still, I cannot help but think that this is causing huge doubts in CCP inner circles... But that may just be wishful thinking.
 
Kevbad the Bad said:
NATO is not the root cause. The root cause is Russian imperialism and a distorted view of the world. Poland and the Baltic states joined because of a history of being invaded and occupied. They have absolutely no intention of invading Russia. Neither does Ukraine.
Click to expand...
This. I think banging on about mistakes made in the 90s and NATO expansion are of little use at this point. Putin didn't seem too concerned about NATO when he was getting state visits here and when he and Bush lovingly looked into each others souls. It was only when all that power and money started going to his head he could start using NATO as a way to convince the Russian people it was an imminent invasion threat.

I felt nauseous the way certain aspects of the left parrotted his propaganda during the Syrian war. Now I'm about ready to vomit the way some are carrying on in this conflict about it all being NATO and making out Putin is the victim. Fuck that, he's blitzkrieging his neighbour. Even if NATO expansion was at the forefront of his reasoning it doesn't, in a month of Sundays, justify this level of aggression against Ukraine, a country not even in NATO.
 
Doctor Carrot said:
This. I think banging on about mistakes made in the 90s and NATO expansion are of little use at this point. Putin didn't seem too concerned about NATO when he was getting state visits here and when he and Bush lovingly looked into each others souls. It was only when all that power and money started going to his head he could start using NATO as a way to convince the Russian people it was an imminent invasion threat.

I felt nauseous the way certain aspects of the left parrotted his propaganda during the Syrian war. Now I'm about ready to vomit the way some are carrying on in this conflict about it all being NATO and making out Putin is the victim. Fuck that, he's blitzkrieging his neighbour. Even if NATO expansion was at the forefront of his reasoning it doesn't, in a month of Sundays, justify this level of aggression against Ukraine, a country not even in NATO.
Click to expand...
without nato i don't think the russians would have acted as they have over the past years, with georgia for example. without nato i don't suppose the russians would have invested as heavily as they have in modernising their army. the actions of today find their roots in decisions made in the 1990s, with subsequent decisions made within the contexts of those former ones. and with the strategic decision not to make russia a friend in the days when this was a realistic policy option many routes which would have avoided today's shitstorm were cancelled. and now we're here and the aftermath of this conflict doesn't seem at all hopeful either, because ukraine and russia will never be close to the relationship they had beforehand. i can't see a way in which conflict isn't designed into the future - whether that's a future with or without putin.

without looking at how we got here we won't be able to see how things might be better in the future. as it is nato's here to stay and as soon as this phase is over you know ukraine will be a nato member.
 
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