Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[dilute micro]

I've been wondering whether all the ramping up of threat level from the US and UK will make it more difficult for Putin to back down. They'll clearly be wanting to claim credit if he does.

I think the ramping up take was a media creation. It's a given that they sat on so much Intel. I think Putin may have changed his mind. All this seems strange. If this was just a stunt by Putin to draw attention to their concerns about Ukraine and Nato then what good did it do if it's back to business as normal?

 

[Sprocket.]

I think the ramping up take was a media creation. It's a given that they sat on so much Intel. I think Putin may have changed his mind. All this seems strange. If this was just a stunt by Putin to draw attention to their concerns about Ukraine and Nato then what good did it do if it's back to business as normal?

It shows how easily he can rattle the sabre if needed. I am sure he sees American interest generally in Europe to be minimal. He probably sees Biden as a President that will do anything to avoid major conflict.

 

[Left sider]

From a domestic point of view, Johnson will probably welcome the Ukraine situation as a ‘distraction’ technique from Partygate. That’s if Russia don’t turn off the gas and then there would be a real crisis.

 

[steveo87]

I think the ramping up take was a media creation. It's a given that they sat on so much Intel. I think Putin may have changed his mind. All this seems strange. If this was just a stunt by Putin to draw attention to their concerns about Ukraine and Nato then what good did it do if it's back to business as normal?

Because he can.

 

[Teaboy]

Wonder what will happen if Putin decides to close russian air space to the 300,000 flights which use it each year

#actionsshortofanuclearstrike

An inconvenience but not that bigger deal. Russia already limits the amount of airlines that it allows to transit across Russian airspace. Usually its just one per country with some exceptions. As a result there are loads of other established routes available and the retaliation would be a pain for Aeroflot.

 

[Diamond]

i think what you're trying to say is that you see some very bloody wars on the horizon. which is what i've been anticipating for years.

Maybe, maybe not. Imperialism that takes effect as a result of massive technological advantages can be done quite cleanly with high levels of oppression. Take Xinjiang for instance. They are committing a type of genocide there but the one thing that it is not is violent. There's lots of ideological indoctrination to try and destroy a culture and a people, backed up, much more sinisterly, with forced sterilisation of women and other coercive measures around reproduction. But people aren't being shot en masse etc.

If the Russians get what they want out of this one then they've played a clever strategic game. And no one will have got shot.

Lots of earlier Imperialism followed similar patterns - massive technological power imbalances tend to make extremely bloody conflicts (which require some degree of parity) unlikely.

My guess is that Biden has offered some kind of (probably secret) commitment to Putin on Ukraine/NATO. Such a dearth of strategic leaders in the West. Germany a real problem too - they need to grow up and start behaving like a fully realised power again. Macron just a bit of a silly narcissist for my money.

 

[Pickman's model]

Maybe, maybe not. Imperialism that takes effect as a result of massive technological advantages can be done quite cleanly with high levels of oppression. Take Xinjiang for instance. They are committing a type of genocide there but the one thing that it is not is violent. There's lots of ideological indoctrination to try and destroy a culture and a people, backed up, much more sinisterly, with forced sterilisation of women and other coercive measures around reproduction. But people aren't being shot en masse etc.

If the Russians get what they want out of this one then they've played a clever strategic game. And no one will have got shot.

Lots of earlier Imperialism followed similar patterns - massive technological power imbalances tend to make extremely bloody conflicts (which require some degree of parity) unlikely.

My guess is that Biden has offered some kind of (probably secret) commitment to Putin on Ukraine/NATO. Such a dearth of strategic leaders in the West. Germany a real problem too - they need to grow up and start behaving like a fully realised power again. Macron just a bit of a silly narcissist for my money.

I think you'll finding incarcerating millions of people, forcing them to work, forcibly sterilising many of them and beating and sexually assaulting many thousands of others is in fact violence

 

[Magnus McGinty]

Wonder what will happen if Putin decides to close russian air space to the 300,000 flights which use it each year

#actionsshortofanuclearstrike

I wouldn't fancy flying over there at the best of times but definitely not if the war turns hot.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

I think the ramping up take was a media creation. It's a given that they sat on so much Intel. I think Putin may have changed his mind. All this seems strange. If this was just a stunt by Putin to draw attention to their concerns about Ukraine and Nato then what good did it do if it's back to business as normal?

His strategy appears to be to ramp up tensions and test for the weak spots. Then formulates his next strategy. Rinse and repeat.

 

[Idris2002]

How strongly committed are Russian ruling circles to the idea that the USA is a power in decline, and a federal state in the process of breaking down? There are memes floating about claiming that Russian social scientists (among others) believe that the USA is fated to go the way of the USSR (not such a daft idea, since 2016).

But does the Russian establishment, foreign policy wonks etc., actually believe this? If so, it would make sense to just keep acting the maggot on a regular basis, engaging in managed crises that rattle sabres without ever fully drawing them from their sheaths, and wait for the attendant stresses to speed their rival onwards to the dustbin of history?

E2A:

This is the 'meme' (well, blog post, more like?) I was thinking of:

Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US - resilience

www.resilience.org

 

[steveo87]

Just out of curiosity, how long can Putin (officially) stay in power?

 

[Raheem]

Just out of curiosity, how long can Putin (officially) stay in power?

Until the end of 2036. Unless he changes the constitution again.

(He was previously limited to 2024)

 

[steeplejack]

How strongly committed are Russian ruling circles to the idea that the USA is a power in decline, and a federal state in the process of breaking down? There are memes floating about claiming that Russian social scientists (among others) believe that the USA is fated to go the way of the USSR (not such a daft idea, since 2016).

But does the Russian establishment, foreign policy wonks etc., actually believe this? If so, it would make sense to just keep acting the maggot on a regular basis, engaging in managed crises that rattle sabres without ever fully drawing them from their sheaths, and wait for the attendant stresses to speed their rival onwards to the dustbin of history?

E2A:

This is the 'meme' (well, blog post, more like?) I was thinking of:

Closing the 'Collapse Gap': the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US - resilience

www.resilience.org

I've been looking for that talk for ages, but couldn't remember who it was by. Brilliant!

 

[Pickman's model]

An inconvenience but not that bigger deal. Russia already limits the amount of airlines that it allows to transit across Russian airspace. Usually its just one per country with some exceptions. As a result there are loads of other established routes available and the retaliation would be a pain for Aeroflot.

What If Moscow Cancels Airline Overflight Rights?

The world is watching Russia, worrying that it might invade Ukraine or launch military assaults against NATO member states. But Moscow may, true to form, decide to do something completely different. And to throw the West into turmoil, the Kremlin would only need to take one simple administrative...

www.aei.org

 

[kebabking]

Of course, there's a question about whether western airlines should be flying to China - this, to me, seems like worrying that Vichy France will suspend commercial flights so that it's difficult to get to Nazi Germany.

If anyone can name somewhere that isn't a horrific, genocidal,authoritarian shithole that I won't be able to get to by not flying over Russia, I'm all ears...

 

[Diamond]

I think you'll finding incarcerating millions of people, forcing them to work, forcibly sterilising many of them and beating and sexually assaulting many thousands of others is in fact violence

Some of that is, a lot of it isn't.

We really need to get back to a proper definition of violence. Violence is a matter of physical harm, particularly that which draws blood. It is not a matter of incarceration or words.

Why do you think they are adopting that sophisticated, technologically facilitated approach? It will be very expensive compared to alternative strategies.

 

[Pickman's model]

Some of that is, a lot of it isn't.

We really need to get back to a proper definition of violence. Violence is a matter of physical harm, particularly that which draws blood. It is not a matter of incarceration or words.

Why do you think they are adopting that sophisticated, technologically facilitated approach? It will be very expensive compared to alternative strategies.

That's a shit definition of violence

 

[Pickman's model]

Of course, there's a question about whether western airlines should be flying to China - this, to me, seems like worrying that Vichy France will suspend commercial flights so that it's difficult to get to Nazi Germany.

If anyone can name somewhere that isn't a horrific, genocidal,authoritarian shithole that I won't be able to get to by not flying over Russia, I'm all ears...

As you'll find if you read the entire piece it's not about preventing people getting to eg japan

 

[Diamond]

That's a shit definition of violence

What is it missing then? Intent?

Or do you want words and feelings and all that soft nonsense...?

 

[Pickman's model]

What is it missing then? Intent?

Or do you want words and feelings and all that soft nonsense...?

If you think feelings are soft nonsense you'll be a very lonely man. Let's go with behaviour involving physical force intended to hurt physically or psychologically, damage or kill someone or something. There's problems with that as well of course but it's markedly better than your half-arsed attempt

 

[teqniq]

Some of that is, a lot of it isn't.

We really need to get back to a proper definition of violence. Violence is a matter of physical harm, particularly that which draws blood. It is not a matter of incarceration or words.

Why do you think they are adopting that sophisticated, technologically facilitated approach? It will be very expensive compared to alternative strategies.

* cough * Psychological violence

 

[RainbowTown]

We really need to get back to a proper definition of violence. Violence is a matter of physical harm, particularly that which draws blood. It is not a matter of incarceration or words.

I absolutely disagree with that statement. A shockingly ill informed thing to say.

Psychological violence - violence of the mind - of course exists. It is defined as " any intentional conduct that seriously impairs another person's psychological integrity through coercion or threats....." It's effects on people can induce all kinds of mental health issues including dissociative states, trauma, PTSD etc which in turn can have an effect on a person's physical health as well. It's effects are far reaching and can be utterly devastating.

 

[steveo87]

Until the end of 2036. Unless he changes the constitution again.

(He was previously limited to 2024)

Christ. I didn't realise it wad that long!

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Surely incarceration by force is so obviously violence. If you resist you will be restrained, attacked or killed.

 

[Diamond]

If you think feelings are soft nonsense you'll be a very lonely man. Let's go with behaviour involving physical force intended to hurt physically or psychologically, damage or kill someone or something. There's problems with that as well of course but it's markedly better than your half-arsed attempt

Feelings are not a matter of violence. To say that they are is categorically nonsense from my point of view.

Develop another word for your psychological concerns.

Applying violence as a label to that is IMV a highly cynical attempt to qualify something that is bad into a far worse category, usually to gain an illegitimate advantage. Strong elements of cowardice in play with such manipulation from my POV.

 

[Diamond]

Surely incarceration by force is so obviously violence. If you resist you will be restrained, attacked or killed.

No, it is not. FWIW false imprisonment is not automatically a question of violence.

The restraining (if sufficiently forceful), attacking (provided it is focused on physical harm) and obviously death all are examples of violence.

 

[Pickman's model]

Feelings are not a matter of violence. To say that they are is categorically nonsense from my point of view.

Develop another word for your psychological concerns.

Applying violence as a label to that is IMV a highly cynical attempt to qualify something that is bad into a far worse category, usually to gain an illegitimate advantage. Strong elements of cowardice in play with such manipulation from my POV.

Oh I think you'd change your mind sharpish if I put a gun to your head and pulled the trigger only for you to hear a click. Especially if I didn't let you change your trousers after

 

[Diamond]

I absolutely disagree with that statement. A shockingly ill informed thing to say.

Psychological violence - violence of the mind - of course exists. It is defined as " any intentional conduct that seriously impairs another person's psychological integrity through coercion or threats....." It's effects on people can induce all kinds of mental health issues including dissociative states, trauma, PTSD etc which in turn can have an effect on a person's physical health as well. It's effects are far reaching and can be utterly devastating.

What is your source?

 

[teqniq]

What is your source?

It's in the link I provided.

 

[Diamond]

It's in the link I provided.

Got it. Yes, this is exactly the kind of thing that I argue strongly is completely wrong and ill-founded. Notably it is a super progressive, international think-tanky, NGO source - not impressive people in my book.

"Purposeful ignorance"