Tory UK EU Exit Referendum

[marty21]

If the vote is to stay the Tories will implode.

It is win win , whatever the result , the Tories will go to war

 

[Pickman's model]

It is win win , whatever the result , the Tories will go to war

 

[sim667]

One of my friends is quite panicked by this whole referendum....... she's on a belgian passport, but has lived here since she was about 10 (now 28), has a career, friends and owns a home here..... but keeps asking me whether its a good idea for her to apply for residency before this all kicks off anymore.

I have no idea

 

[gosub]

One of my friends is quite panicked by this whole referendum....... she's on a belgian passport, but has lived here since she was about 10 (now 28), has a career, friends and owns a home here..... but keeps asking me whether its a good idea for her to apply for residency before this all kicks off anymore.

I have no idea

Not if she doesn't really want it. In the event of a Leave vote, she would have 2 years to deal with stuff like that.
eta
Skyscraper, below, is also probably right.

 

[skyscraper101]

One of my friends is quite panicked by this whole referendum....... she's on a belgian passport, but has lived here since she was about 10 (now 28), has a career, friends and owns a home here..... but keeps asking me whether its a good idea for her to apply for residency before this all kicks off anymore.

I have no idea

Extremely unlikely. Even in the unlikely scenario that Britain exits and visa restrictions started coming into effect for new arrivals from the EU, someone who's been living here for that long with property wouldn't be affected. I'd put money on that.

Think of the reciprocal upheaval to all the hundreds of thousands of Brits living in the Costa Del Sol etc if no free movement agreement was reached.

 

[Dogsauce]

One of my friends is quite panicked by this whole referendum....... she's on a belgian passport, but has lived here since she was about 10 (now 28), has a career, friends and owns a home here..... but keeps asking me whether its a good idea for her to apply for residency before this all kicks off anymore.

I have no idea

It's probably worth her going for it, just because they're tightening things up all the time and it may be less easy in a few years. It's quite expensive, but not going to get any cheaper.

My OH is EU (working here about 8 years), she's waiting on citizenship at the moment. A lot of her friends working here from various bits of the world (including non-EU) have put in for it recently too, because they see the way the mood is turning and the strength of anti-immigration rhetoric.

They've even changed some of the rules during the process, one of her friends nearly got caught out by a rule change while she was out of the country for her dad's funeral, but fortunately the local council who manage the process managed to squeeze in some meeting/interview before the deadline, which was good of them (it's heartening that people who manage the process at a local level are helpful and nice even when the rules and rhetoric coming from central government is so hostile).

I think there was a newspaper article recently highlighting that there's been a big rise in applications, which isn't surprising.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Extremely unlikely. Even in the unlikely scenario that Britain exits and visa restrictions started coming into effect for new arrivals from the EU, someone who's been living here for that long with property wouldn't be affected. I'd put money on that.

Think of the reciprocal upheaval to all the hundreds of thousands of Brits living in the Costa Del Sol etc if no free movement agreement was reached.

I agree wrt the case quoted. However, I have Bulgarian friends who came here far more recently, and they are also concerned. Like it or not, 'brexit' is being fought on the battleground of immigration - those wanting to restrict it will be in a powerful position if the UK leaves the EU.

 

[skyscraper101]

I agree wrt the case quoted. However, I have Bulgarian friends who came here far more recently, and they are also concerned. Like it or not, 'brexit' is being fought on the battleground of immigration - those wanting to restrict it will be in a powerful position if the UK leaves the EU.

This is all hypothetical of course, but I'd put money on any EU citizen currently living and working here having to face being sent back. There are hundreds if not thousands of Brits living in Bulgaria too and I just can't see how this situation would come about - there's too many reciprocal benefits from the EU that they will use this as a negotiating point on.

I can see a potential play for restrictions coming in on new EU arrivals (benefits restrictions mainly), but in the case of existing EU residents living and working in the UK, I just couldn't see anyone being sent back unvoluntarily, much as some hardliners may wish it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

This is all hypothetical of course, but I'd put money on any EU citizen currently living and working here having to face being sent back. There are hundreds if not thousands of Brits living in Bulgaria too and I just can't see how this situation would come about - there's too many reciprocal benefits from the EU that they will use this as a negotiating point on.

I can see a potential play for restrictions coming in on new EU arrivals (benefits restrictions mainly), but in the case of existing EU residents living and working in the UK, I just couldn't see anyone being sent back unvoluntarily, much as some hardliners may wish it.

Presumably they will have to apply for a work permit. What the exact conditions for these will be, we don't know.

 

[skyscraper101]

Presumably they will have to apply for a work permit. What the exact conditions for these will be, we don't know.

Worst case scenario. I hope.

I also hope in the event of Brexit, no EU citizen living here or wishing to live here will be stopped from doing so, and UK citizens will be free to live and work in the EU too. I think that concession will be a given with so much trade to lose with the bloc if an agreement can't be reached.

 

[marty21]

Maybe this has already been said (it's a long thread) but there are maybe 2m Brits living and working in the EU? And they will get the vote if they have been gone less than 15 years, it it is a close run referendum, the turnout amongst the ex pats might be crucial - they have a lot to lose if we do Brexit.

 

[sim667]

they have a lot to lose if we do Brexit.

I bet you quite a lot of the retirees in spain will vote to leave though..... I'm always surprised by the anti eu / ukip support amongst my mum and dads expat friends in spain.

 

[marty21]

I bet you quite a lot of the retirees in spain will vote to leave though..... I'm always surprised by the anti eu / ukip support amongst my mum and dads expat friends in spain.

what has the EU ever done for them

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Worst case scenario. I hope.

I also hope in the event of Brexit, no EU citizen living here or wishing to live here will be stopped from doing so, and UK citizens will be free to live and work in the EU too. I think that concession will be a given with so much trade to lose with the bloc if an agreement can't be reached.

If net immigration stays at the levels it's at, there will be enormous pressure to introduce restrictions. They would hurt the economy, but I can see the Tories in particular not having much of an argument against them. The Tories came to power in 2010 on the back of big rhetoric about Labour immigration. Since then, net immigration has increased, of course, as it was always likely to, and the Tories have been unable to do anything about it. Outside the EU there will be no such restrictions on action. Lots of 'British jobs for British people' rhetoric, plus demands from a newly energised UKIP to act. There will also be pressure not to treat every EU country as equal - Belgians won't be kicked out/kept out, but Bulgarians or Romanians might. It could be a very grim period.

ETA: Fuck it, no 'could be' about it. An exit from the EU on the back of nasty anti-immigrant arguments will lead to a very grim period.

 

[skyscraper101]

If net immigration stays at the levels it's at, there will be enormous pressure to introduce restrictions. They would hurt the economy, but I can see the Tories in particular not having much of an argument against them. The Tories came to power in 2010 on the back of big rhetoric about Labour immigration. Since then, net immigration has increased, of course, as it was always likely to, and the Tories have been unable to do anything about it. Outside the EU there will be no such restrictions on action. Lots of 'British jobs for British people' rhetoric, plus demands from a newly energised UKIP to act. There will also be pressure not to treat every EU country as equal - Belgians won't be kicked out/kept out, but Bulgarians or Romanians might. It could be a very grim period.

ETA: Fuck it, no 'could be' about it. An exit from the EU on the back of nasty anti-immigrant arguments will lead to a very grim period.

I hear you. Everyone should be concerned. But if the EU stands for anything, then it should defend the rights of the bloc as a whole in negotiating a free movement agreement for all it's people. Whether Bulgarian or Belgian.

There are thousands of Bulgarians here with families and jobs paying taxes, as is their right. Those rights, as well as everyone else's right to a family life should be protected under Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights if nothing else. A law which is currently being used to challenge the government's unlawful position on minimum salary requirements in order to bring a non-EU spouse of a UK citizen to the UK.

 

[Libertad]

Sooner or later the 'In' campaign will realise they have to offer people something to vote for rather than against. The kipper types (who form the majority but not all of the out campaign) have a lot of well-motivated and vocal supporters, and are mostly of the demographic that is more likely to vote. I think building support for the 'In' campaign is harder, particularly as the liberal and soft-left types more likely to support this won't feel as enthusiastic rallying to Cameron's flag.

What are the betting markets saying? I know some people on here follow that stuff (gambling sites blocked at work so no can't check myself)

Paddy Power have Remain @ 4/11 and Exit @ 2/1

EU Membership Referendum - UK Politics Betting from Paddy Power

 

[brogdale]

From John Curtiss' "What UK thinks?" piece titled "Is David Cameron now the leader of the opposition?"

Of the six polling companies in question, five of them also polled – using the same method – in the fortnight or so before a draft of the eventual deal was published on 1 February. At that time those five polls (four of them conducted over the internet and one by phone) on average put Remain on 52.5% (once Don’t Knows are left aside) and Leave on 47.5%.

The equivalent figures for those five polls during the last week have been Remain 51%, Leave 49%. In other words, if anything, support for Remain appears to be slightly weaker now than it was before the details of the renegotiation first became public knowledge.

​

 

[stethoscope]

Project Fear™

 

[stupid kid]

Maybe this has already been said (it's a long thread) but there are maybe 2m Brits living and working in the EU? And they will get the vote if they have been gone less than 15 years, it it is a close run referendum, the turnout amongst the ex pats might be crucial - they have a lot to lose if we do Brexit.

Yep. Ex pat in USA here, my biggest concern is potential loss of free movement within the EU. That said, I don't know if I'll vote, I think the UK government still think I live at my mum's old house and god only knows how much debt I left behind.

 

[stupid kid]

From John Curtiss' "What UK thinks?" piece titled "Is David Cameron now the leader of the opposition?"

​

I think that's a bad sign for the leaves. Obviously it's still all to play for but that's not much of a bump for them considering how triumphalistic Gove et all looked holding their stupid banner.

 

[brogdale]

I think that's a bad sign for the leaves. Obviously it's still all to play for but that's not much of a bump for them considering how triumphalistic Gove et all looked holding their stupid banner.

I doubt this will be about polling 'bumps' more likely trends.

 

[redsquirrel]

If the vote is to stay the Tories will implode.

If you want to the damage the Tories then you are far better voting leave then remain.

If remain wins by a decent margin (say 65/35) then Cameron and Osbourne have been vindicated, sure there'll be some angry backbenchers, some defections to UKIP from councillors/members, but the eurosceptics in the party have got little room to manoeuvre.

If you have a result similar to the Scottish Ref, with remain winning but a considerable body of support for leave (55/45) then the Tories have far more problems. Rather than settling the issue the referendum has brought it to the fore and the present leadership is damaged.

If leave gets a narrow win then the Tories have a huge problem, with the parties leadership and financial backers totally opposed to what a large proportion of the membership wants and to the public vote. There would be major chaos in the party, Cameron would have to go, despite what he's said the leave's in the Tories aren't going to want the rewriting of treaties down by someone who led remain.

 

[gosub]

It is win win , whatever the result , the Tories will go to war

oops wrong thread

 

[teqniq]

The only path I would like to see smoothed for Osborne is to the scaffold.

 

[gosub]

The only path I would like to see smoothed for Osborne is to the scaffold.

moved it to ruthless tory stupidity, seemed a better fit

 

[gosub]

Parliament tv will now be streaming Head of Civil Service v PA&CA select committee Parliamentlive.tv 4:15

some fun to be had with the a civil service Q&A document it would appear... Ahead of PMQ's on Wednesday



In reality though:eventually ends up about ends up semantic debate about the meaning of 'impartiality' and 'honourable.'
Future of the country v (ministers salary.)*6 Interesting week.

 

[newbie]

Project Fear™

indeed. At the moment that's only really being countered by Project Ridicule. At some point I'd like to think the Out side will start putting forward positive arguments of their own, particularly 'progressive' ones.

 

[stethoscope]

indeed. At the moment that's only really being countered by Project Ridicule. At some point I'd like to think the Out side will start putting forward positive arguments of their own, particularly 'progressive' ones.

That was a reference to the latest crap that's being played out inside the Tories from both the in and out camp.

David Cameron says his EU campaign is Project Fact, not Project Fear

 

[newbie]

That was a reference to the latest crap that's being played out inside the Tories from both the in and out camp.

David Cameron says his EU campaign is Project Fact, not Project Fear

yes I know. Johnson appears to have called what Cameron said baloney and I'm agreeing.

Trouble is every point made about what could happen post-Brexit is ridiculed as being simply part of Project Fear. Not only within the tory party but in the wider debate, including here.

Which is all very well, and to some extent perfectly true but we're going to have 4 months of this stuff. If they want to convince doubters the Out side will have to move beyond ridiculing perfectly natural concerns about something unknown that will affect us for a big chunk of the rest of our lives.

 

[newbie]

If you want to the damage the Tories then you are far better voting leave then remain.

If remain wins by a decent margin (say 65/35) then Cameron and Osbourne have been vindicated, sure there'll be some angry backbenchers, some defections to UKIP from councillors/members, but the eurosceptics in the party have got little room to manoeuvre.

If you have a result similar to the Scottish Ref, with remain winning but a considerable body of support for leave (55/45) then the Tories have far more problems. Rather than settling the issue the referendum has brought it to the fore and the present leadership is damaged.

If leave gets a narrow win then the Tories have a huge problem, with the parties leadership and financial backers totally opposed to what a large proportion of the membership wants and to the public vote. There would be major chaos in the party, Cameron would have to go, despite what he's said the leave's in the Tories aren't going to want the rewriting of treaties down by someone who led remain.

Having said that about Project Ridicule I'll say that while I accept what's written here, it's very short-term. The next few months. What happens if Cameron is deposed, which tory on the Out side would become PM between 2016 and 2020, who would be chancellor or home secretary? What policies would they inflict on us? Of course there's fear involved in that.