Tory UK EU Exit Referendum

[brogdale]

indeed. At the moment that's only really being countered by Project Ridicule. At some point I'd like to think the Out side will start putting forward positive arguments of their own, particularly 'progressive' ones.

'Progressive' in the sense that they'll say an 'independent' UK might occasionally elect an administration holding vaguely social democratic beliefs that attempts to decelerate the drive towards post-democracy neo-liberalism?

 

[redsquirrel]

Mandelson speaking for a pro-EU position, bet the remain camp are glad of that input.

Any idiot can start a trade agreement. The question is where does it end up? You can deal with tariffs relatively easily. What is much harder to deal with are the behind-the-border regulatory barriers. And the more you want to reduce both border tariff barriers and regulatory barriers, the longer and more complex it is, and the harder the negotiation is. And that is why on average a free trade agreement takes between four and seven years, sometimes much longer, to negotiate.

 

[stethoscope]

This was one of the pieces last year that started to really push me towards the 'out' - from the author John King:
The left wing case for leaving the EU

But of course you're not going to see those arguments in most of our media and press are you? Well, the closest is the Morning Star and pieces like this:
EU membership bars socialism

And a reasonable one again today from John Haylett:
No time to entrust Britain’s future to a bureaucratic finance-capital cabal

It seems to me that the 'wider debate' is pretty poor liberal positioning so I'm not really going to invest much into it - that anyone 'out' is being sympathetic to UKIP or the Tories and whatever anti-immigrant or anti-rights rhetoric can be applied. So, therefore the only 'right option' (said in that usual patronising liberal tone) option is to remain 'in' as at least we know where we stand. Given that 'out' also includes socialists, trade unionists and anti-capitalists, most of the 'progressive' arguments for 'in' I've seen don't amount to any pro-socialist, pro-worker ones and seem to really hinge on the neo-liberal status quo with a bit of 'fear' thrown in.

 

[stethoscope]

Still, at least Corbyn has ruled out sharing a platform with Cameron.

Jeremy Corbyn 'not on same side' as David Cameron in EU debate

Jeremy Corbyn has drawn a deeper dividing line with David Cameron over Europe, highlighting the leave campaign’s claims that the UK’s deal with Brussels may not be legally binding.

The Labour leader, who supports staying in the EU, categorically ruled out sharing a platform with the prime minister as he seeks to make a completely separate argument against Brexit. He stressed he is “not on the same side of the argument” as Cameron despite both fighting for the remain campaign to win.

Corbyn has strongly criticised Cameron for striking the deal with 27 other EU leaders to curb in-work benefits for migrants, saying it is irrelevant and a sideshow to the wider referendum debate. Speaking to ITV’s The Agenda, he said he could never imagine sharing a stage with the prime minister and pointed to comments by Michael Gove, the justice secretary and leave campaigner, that question the legal status of Cameron’s deal.

“We are not on the same side of the argument. [Cameron] wants a free market Europe. He has negotiated what he believes is some kind of deal over welfare and the ever-closer union, which is apparently legally questionable, according to Michael Gove.

“I want to see a Europe that is about protecting our environment and ensuring we have sustainable industries across Europe, such as the steel industry, and high levels of jobs and social protection across Europe. His agenda is the very opposite.”

 

[brogdale]

Still, at least Corbyn has ruled out sharing a platform with Cameron.

Jeremy Corbyn 'not on same side' as David Cameron in EU debate

Attempting to avoid "Red Tory II"?

 

[newbie]

'Progressive' in the sense that they'll say an 'independent' UK might occasionally elect an administration holding vaguely social democratic beliefs that attempts to decelerate the drive towards post-democracy neo-liberalism?

that's a bit convoluted, but it seems to be at least part of the central plank of the left Out position. Is it unfair to characterise it as project Wishful Thinking? I don't (yet) know. I'll read the sources stethoscope has quoted when I have time and come back.

 

[brogdale]

that's a bit convoluted, but it seems to be at least part of the central plank of the left Out position. Is it unfair to characterise it as project Wishful Thinking? I don't (yet) know. I'll read the sources stethoscope has quoted when I have time and come back.

Convoluted?

 

[stethoscope]

I'd say it was reasonably clear and simple, not convoluted. Staying in means we're locked into EU neo-liberalism (which is getting less democratic and protectionist of rights as it increasingly drives an austerity agenda), whilst out might just give some sort of opportunity (however small that might be I accept) of pushing things more to the left occasionally. That's very much the argument from one of the Morning Star pieces above.

 

[brogdale]

I'd say it was reasonably clear and simple, not convoluted. Staying in means we're locked into EU neo-liberalism (which is getting less democratic and protectionist of rights as it increasingly drives an austerity agenda), whilst out might just give some sort of opportunity (however small that might be I accept) of pushing things more to the left occasionally. That's very much the argument from one of the Morning Star pieces above.

Yes.
The challenge of attempting to promote a 'progressive' Leave agenda lies partly in the fact that the argument is essentially one that must highlight the negative liberalisation impacts of the supra-state, and partly on some fairly wishful thinking regarding the potential of our own representative democracy to offer any resistance to further liberalisation.

 

[Dogsauce]

Still, at least Corbyn has ruled out sharing a platform with Cameron.

Jeremy Corbyn 'not on same side' as David Cameron in EU debate

Given what happened to Labour over the Scottish referendum, he's probably wise to distance himself from the tories.

 

[newbie]

Yes.
The challenge of attempting to promote a 'progressive' Leave agenda lies partly in the fact that the argument is essentially one that must highlight the negative liberalisation impacts of the supra-state, and partly on some fairly wishful thinking regarding the potential of our own representative democracy to offer any resistance to further liberalisation.

it was only the wording I thought convoluted, stethoscope put it more clearly. Both of you seem to agree that the potential is small. I'd ask what the prize is- to what extent can socialism, or even a brake on neo-liberalism, be realised in one country?

meanwhile a year or so ago there was the prospect of a European left surge, here, Greece, Spain, Portugal... Now that's been dashed and broken by the electorates not voting the way I, at least, would have wished, but the potential was there and remains there. Isn't an internationalist dream at least as worthwhile, and if realised wouldn't the outcome have greater possibilities?

 

[killer b]

The Greeks voted the way you would have wished didn't they?

How did that work out?

 

[stethoscope]

meanwhile a year or so ago there was the prospect of a European left surge, here, Greece, Spain, Portugal... Now that's been dashed and broken by the electorates not voting the way I, at least, would have wished, but the potential was there and remains there. Isn't an internationalist dream at least as worthwhile, and if realised wouldn't the outcome have greater possibilities?

Any left surge was quickly stamped on by the EU anyway - they hung the likes of Greece out to dry. Greece tried to negotiate it's own alternative deal to austerity and the EU wouldn't give any financial support unless they imposed strict fiscal austerity. Spain and Portugal's own democratic-socialist leaning governments also placed under the same pressure.

I'm all for internationalism, but not one based on neoliberalism.

 

[brogdale]

I'd ask what the prize is- to what extent can socialism, or even a brake on neo-liberalism, be realised in one country?

For labour the only 'prize' attainable upon Brexit is escape from a supranational federation that specifically forbids any democratic corrective intervention into market justice, into an situation which strengthens the (relative) power of markets to ensure the same outcome.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

For labour the only 'prize' attainable upon Brexit is escape from a supranational federation that specifically forbids any democratic corrective intervention into market justice, into an situation which strengthens the (relative) power of markets to ensure the same outcome.

If the UK ever gets a govt that would seek to follow corrective intervention measures that are forbidden by EU rules, that would be a time to challenge said rules, no? The EU isn't just one thing - it contains elements that pressure against capitalist orthodoxies, too. And there have been numerous examples of EU countries breaking EU rules without sanction - both France and Germany have done it. You take to the EU that you have a democratic mandate to do this - so they'd better allow it or else.

Taking one example: rail renationalisation - so many EU countries still have nationalised rail systems that they'd be in a very weak position to oppose it happening in the UK even if it were against the rules. The argument would be a simple and powerful one - we have a democratic mandate to do it, and we're only trying to get what you already have.

 

[Pickman's model]

If the UK ever gets a govt that would seek to follow corrective intervention measures that are forbidden by EU rules, that would be a time to challenge said rules, no? The EU isn't just one thing - it contains elements that pressure against capitalist orthodoxies, too. And there have been numerous examples of EU countries breaking EU rules without sanction - both France and Germany have done it. You take to the EU that you have a democratic mandate to do this - so they'd better allow it or else.

Taking one example: rail renationalisation - so many EU countries still have nationalised rail systems that they'd be in a very weak position to oppose it happening in the UK even if it were against the rules. The argument would be a simple and powerful one - we have a democratic mandate to do it, and we're only trying to get what you already have.

yeh like the democratic mandate the greek government had after that referendum

 

[littlebabyjesus]

yeh like the democratic mandate the greek government had after that referendum

The UK's not in the euro. Not excusing what happened to Greece, but the situation isn't comparable.

 

[Pickman's model]

The UK's not in the euro. Not excusing what happened to Greece, but the situation isn't comparable.

it's comparable but perhaps not equivalent: and it's not as though that's the only referendum whose result has been ignored by the eu, is it.

 

[brogdale]

If the UK ever gets a govt that would seek to follow corrective intervention measures that are forbidden by EU rules, that would be a time to challenge said rules, no? The EU isn't just one thing - it contains elements that pressure against capitalist orthodoxies, too. And there have been numerous examples of EU countries breaking EU rules without sanction - both France and Germany have done it. You take to the EU that you have a democratic mandate to do this - so they'd better allow it or else.

Taking one example: rail renationalisation - so many EU countries still have nationalised rail systems that they'd be in a very weak position to oppose it happening in the UK even if it were against the rules. The argument would be a simple and powerful one - we have a democratic mandate to do it, and we're only trying to get what you already have.

I'm reading that as an argument for remain, based upon the notion of 'left' national governments challenging the EU from within?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm reading that as an argument for remain, based upon the notion of 'left' national governments challenging the EU from within?

I'm not arguing either for or against really. It is an argument against the idea that EU capitalist rules can't be challenged/flouted. If you're in a strong enough position with enough leverage, you can brazenly break EU rules without sanction. Both France and Germany have shown this.

If your economy's fucked and you are seeking a financial bailout, your democracy counts for naught. But then that's true whether you're in the EU or not - just ask the myriad countries across the world forced into privatisation/cuts by the IMF.

 

[brogdale]

I'm not arguing either for or against really. It is an argument against the idea that EU capitalist rules can't be challenged/flouted. If you're in a strong enough position with enough leverage, you can brazenly break EU rules without sanction. Both France and Germany have shown this.

If your economy's fucked and you are seeking a financial bailout, your democracy counts for naught. But then that's true whether you're in the EU or not - just ask the myriad countries across the world forced into privatisation/cuts by the IMF.

Either in or out the state will only have the freedom afforded by the markets. Within the EU the Hayekian superstate will prevent socialist correctives, but outside the sovereign bond-holders have that power directly. That's why I find it difficult to see why folk take such firmly held positions on the in/out. IMO those arguing leave from a progressive perspective are in danger of some degree of delusion.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Either in or out the state will only have the freedom afforded by the markets. Within the EU the Hayekian superstate will prevent socialist correctives, but outside the sovereign bond-holders have that power directly. That's why I find it difficult to see why folk take such firmly held positions on the in/out. IMO those arguing leave from a progressive perspective are in danger of some degree of delusion.

Yes, whether in or out of the EU, those seeking socialist solutions are in danger of being punished for it by international forces. We have lots of examples.

 

[laptop]

Not to claim that the EU did well by Greece, obvs.

But what happened was that it (the Council, strictly) failed to tell *the IMF* to fuck off.

 

[gosub]

Not to claim that the EU did well by Greece, obvs.

But what happened was that it (the Council, strictly) failed to tell *the IMF* to fuck off.

It was Yank pressure on the IMF that got the IMF to admit they thought debt need writing off (not the debt to the IMF obviously.) That was about the only positive from the whole debacle. I remember the EUro was supposed to end US hegemony

 

[brogdale]

Not to claim that the EU did well by Greece, obvs.

But what happened was that it (the Council, strictly) failed to tell *the IMF* to fuck off.

Why would it? They are parts of the same process.

 

[gosub]

If the UK ever gets a govt that would seek to follow corrective intervention measures that are forbidden by EU rules, that would be a time to challenge said rules, no? The EU isn't just one thing - it contains elements that pressure against capitalist orthodoxies, too. And there have been numerous examples of EU countries breaking EU rules without sanction - both France and Germany have done it. You take to the EU that you have a democratic mandate to do this - so they'd better allow it or else.

Taking one example: rail renationalisation - so many EU countries still have nationalised rail systems that they'd be in a very weak position to oppose it happening in the UK even if it were against the rules. The argument would be a simple and powerful one - we have a democratic mandate to do it, and we're only trying to get what you already have.

ASLEF and the RMT are backing leave.

 

[redsquirrel]

I don't think leaving the EU (whatever that actually means) will lead to socialism, or even social-democracy, in one country. Nor am I voting to leave because the EU is an anti-democratic, neo-liberal institution (though it is despite what liberals say). For me it's simpler than that - capital want's the UK to remain in the EU and I want to hurt capital.

I'm not so naive to think that labour will suddenly and necessarily make significant gains from a leave vote, but I do think a leave vote hurts capital, I think it hurts the government, the Tories and the EU. And I think those cracks open up possibilities, whether those possibilities can be exploited to yield gains depends (as ever) on working-class insurgency. I don't believe a leave vote will change the world but I think it gives more opportunities than a stay vote.

------

I'd also note that I think that for remain to win by a large margin would be a boost to the government, a close vote at least provides some opportunity for government infighting and thus (as remain has a small to moderate lead) there's something to be said for a tactical leave vote

 

[littlebabyjesus]

ASLEF and the RMT are backing leave.

There are arguments both ways, I think. And both sides of the argument involve a fair bit of guesswork and hopeful thinking.

My gut reaction is 'fuck you, neither of the above'.

 

[brogdale]

There are arguments both ways, I think. And both sides of the argument involve a fair bit of guesswork and hopeful thinking.

My gut reaction is 'fuck you, neither of the above'.

Almost certainly close to what I will scrawl on the ballot paper...if I bother going.

 

[newbie]

Any left surge was quickly stamped on by the EU anyway - they hung the likes of Greece out to dry. Greece tried to negotiate it's own alternative deal to austerity and the EU wouldn't give any financial support unless they imposed strict fiscal austerity. Spain and Portugal's own democratic-socialist leaning governments also placed under the same pressure.

I'm all for internationalism, but not one based on neoliberalism.

Both sides of the negotiation knew full well that membership of the Euro was more popular in Greece than the government the Greeks had elected. That enabled Eurozone governments to play hardball knowing the other side had effectively nothing to bargain with. Ultimately the Greek people reluctantly acquiesced to austerity in order to stay members.

What aspects of internationalism are bolstered, how is the balance of forces changed, if the UK withdraws from the EU? How is international neoliberalism challenged or weakened?