Tory UK EU Exit Referendum

[marty21]

I'm a Bremainer do we really want the Kippers to win ? The Farage to win

Srsly, I remember when we had the last referendum (I was 10 ) and I was excited about being part of Europe. It doesn't excite me now tbf , and I know it is a flawed project , but I will still vote to stay.

 

[stethoscope]

What aspects of internationalism are bolstered, how is the balance of forces changed, if the UK withdraws from the EU? How is international neoliberalism challenged or weakened?

I wasn't really making that an argument for out tbh. Just stating that internationalism based on neo-liberalism/capital isn't something that's pro-socialist/pro-worker. That said, if, for example, countries like Greece had come out of the EU/euro, and others did too, it might be more possible than trying to change the EU from within. It might not tbh. I'm not professing to have the answers, just that as it stands, I feel that coming out might give an opportunity to hurt the Tories/see the UKIP implode as I maintain they're a one trick pony in this debate (yes, I realise they'll still be some sort of party of anti-immigrant sentiment in the UK)/offer some possibilities to the neo-liberal/austerity path of the EU.

 

[stethoscope]

I'm a Bremainer do we really want the Kippers to win ? The Farage to win

It doesn't. Falling towards 'out' doesn't have to equate to a 'win for UKIP/Farage' as such (though, that might be wishful thinking of me). If anything, whilst we stay 'in', UKIP/Farage will always be a force that UK politics has to deal with as they continue to fight for exiting whilst they ramp up anti-European/immigrant feeling at the same time. I think they're a one-trick pony and if an 'out' was achieved, despite the rest of their 'manifesto', they'd not really last long after an 'out' and fall apart (they're not even united anyway apart from wanting exit). And a narrow 'out' would cause some serious problems for the Tories too I think.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm a Bremainer do we really want the Kippers to win ? The Farage to win

Srsly, I remember when we had the last referendum (I was 10 ) and I was excited about being part of Europe. It doesn't excite me now tbf , and I know it is a flawed project , but I will still vote to stay.

I won't vote to leave. It empowers too many cunts - 4 years of the eurosceptic wing of the Tory party governing until the next election as the UK negotiates its way out? We'll be in a terrible state by the end of that. I can't vote for that.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It doesn't. Falling towards 'out' doesn't automatically equate to a 'win for UKIP/Farage' as such (though, that might be wishful thinking of me). If anything, whilst we stay 'in', UKIP/Farage will always be a force that UK politics has to deal with as they continue to fight for exiting whilst they ramp up anti-European/immigrant feeling at the same time. I think they're a one-trick pony and if an 'out' was achieved, despite the rest of their 'manifesto', they'd not really last long after an 'out' and fall apart (they're not even united anyway apart from wanting exit).

I think that is wishful thinking. UKIP would be fully energised to push their anti-immigration agenda, using the referendum result as justification.

 

[stethoscope]

I think that is wishful thinking. UKIP would be fully energised to push their anti-immigration agenda, using the referendum result as justification.

How though? If an 'out' happens, they've still got to get more MPs elected into parliament. The cracks are already showing between Carswell and Farage. I think they'll be spent at that point - especially if 'out' Tories start to feature in the Tories more prominently, force a Tory leadership shift.

 

[brogdale]

Probably unhelpful to frame this in terms of individuals or even individual parties.

 

[stethoscope]

I'd welcome your observations/thoughts on this @brogdale as to how an 'out' might go, as you're more clued up than I and I always find your posts very informative (I know you've said you're likely to not vote at all - don't think much of either in or out?)

 

[Pickman's model]

There are arguments both ways, I think. And both sides of the argument involve a fair bit of guesswork and hopeful thinking.

My gut reaction is 'fuck you, neither of the above'.

i hope that fence is comfy

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

This was one of the pieces last year that started to really push me towards the 'out' - from the author John King:
The left wing case for leaving the EU

Is that the Football Factory bloke?

 

[Pickman's model]

I'd welcome your observations/thoughts on this brogdale as how an 'out' might go, as you're more clued up than I (I know you've said you're likely to not vote at all).

i vote leap into the great unknown

 

[stethoscope]

Is that the Football Factory bloke?

It is.

 

[brogdale]

I'd welcome your observations/thoughts on this @brogdale as to how an 'out' might go, as you're more clued up than I and I always find your posts very informative (I know you've said you're likely to not vote at all - don't think much of either in or out?)

You mean the likely impact on domestic UK politics?

 

[brogdale]

i vote leap into the great unknown

Unknown it what sense?

 

[Pickman's model]

Unknown it what sense?

no one knows where things will land

 

[stethoscope]

You mean the likely impact on domestic UK politics?

Yes - for pro-socialist and pursuing anti-neoliberal opportunities, what would happen with UKIP, Tories and possible internal infighting, etc?

 

[brogdale]

no one knows where things will land

Does anyone know that if we remain?

 

[Pickman's model]

Does anyone know that if we remain?

if we stay or go then tory party smashed; if we stay, labour party big domestic winner; if we go labour joins tories in dustbin of history.

 

[brogdale]

Yes - for pro-socialist and pursuing anti-neoliberal opportunities, what would happen with UKIP, Tories and possible internal infighting, etc?

I think UKIP, in some form or other, will remain like a bad smell and find continuing excuses for their existence, even if the electorate votes to leave. The parliamentary vermin party will face major challenges with either result, but will basically hold together because they are the party of financialised capital in the final analysis.
As to anti-neoliberal potential I'd say that the leave option is, on balance, the most promising. I'm slowly coming to the conclusion that the only way in which a government might place itself in a position to challenge neo-liberal hegemony is to remove the need to borrow on the bond markets. Massively wishful thinking, though.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

Historically, one of the favourite narratives in the rise of far right and reactionary forces has been that of " betrayal" - either from peace treaties, renegotiations or settlements. Of course, the right/ far right will have a full on version of this narrative if they "win" Brexit as the Tory Eurosceptics oust Cameron and then engage in the tortuous negotiation of "independent" UK over years - likely in a fraught and crisis ridden international setting. Similarly, if they lose the blame will again be laid on the establishment Eurosceptics in a fight to re-align the right along the lines we see in France and some Eastern European states. So I don't see a "chastened" UKIP or far right whatever the result - the result will fuel their USP - grievance. The question is, can the left get a hearing for an alternative narrative?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

It is.

Speaks a lot of wisdom from the working class POV.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

This was one of the pieces last year that started to really push me towards the 'out' - from the author John King:
The left wing case for leaving the EU

Just about sums it up for, & an easy read. We have to get out to give us any chance of fighting back.

 

[gosub]

There are arguments both ways, I think. And both sides of the argument involve a fair bit of guesswork and hopeful thinking.

My gut reaction is 'fuck you, neither of the above'.

And yet both rail unions have declared for Leave and Easyjet pointed to the breakup of national monopolies as a reason to remain.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

And yet both rail unions have declared for Leave and Easyjet pointed to the breakup of national monopolies as a reason to remain.

Isn't that quite simple though? Rail unions ain't neolib multi billion companies, yet Sleazyjet is?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Just about sums it up for, & an easy read. We have to get out to give us any chance of fighting back.

Yep. Was headed that way, he's firmed me right up. OUT please.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Yep. Was headed that way, he's firmed me right up. OUT please.

It's not been easy, & I've been sat on the fence for a while, lots read though. Like you said, from a w/c pov, i'm out.

 

[goldenecitrone]

Just about sums it up for, & an easy read. We have to get out to give us any chance of fighting back.

What are your plans for fighting back if the UK leaves the EU?

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Unlike you, I've read every post on this thread.

 

[goldenecitrone]

Unlike you, I've read every post on this thread.

So it's going to be some kind of internet-based fight back, centred around the U75 P&P forum? I see.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

So it's going to be some kind of internet-based fight back, centred around the U75 P&P forum? I see.

Are you pissed?