Tory UK EU Exit Referendum

[youngian]

After reading these threads, & now having a clearer understanding, I'm out.

As this is not a site for nationalists and neo-liberal headbangers, I'm still unclear how the left-wing case for leaving the EU would be implemented in the 21st century. For example, if you want to implement national exchange controls how would you block bank transfers on my iphone? I doubt if quoting Tony Benn fortune cookie wisdom would do the trick. You will also need a state monopoly over trade if you want to a national planned economy. And how you will you explain to people on the doorsteps they may have to wait up to a year or pay extortionate black market prices for their favourite gadgets? Good luck with that.

 

[youngian]

We have this referendum because Cameron needed a way to keep the Tories together during the last election. And having been elected with the referendum as one of their policies we have to have it. My hope was the Tories would not have been elected as that would have sidelined this issue.

Leadership is so much about emotion, perception and the art of bullshit which Ed Miliband wasn't very good at. But he was the one who was standing firm and had clarity on the issue of the EU not Cameron.

 

[redsquirrel]

G20 finance ministers now doing the 'but, but, for the good of global capitalism…' fear-stoking for the UK to stay in.

Brexit 'could pose a risk to the world economy', says draft G20 communique

And more, please save us, CBI/IMF/ECB

The UK would face a decade of massive economic uncertainty with potentially disastrous consequences for business and the pound if it voted to leave the EU, the Europe minister says.

At the G20 finance ministers meeting US Treasury secretary Jack Lew expressed clear support for Britain’s continued membership of the EU.

“Our view is that it’s in the national security and economic security [interests] of the United Kingdom, of Europe and of the United States for the United Kingdom to stay in the European Union.

 

[J Ed]

Has anyone put any money on the UK voting leave?

 

[youngian]

Hedge fund managers are set to earn as much as £250m a year if the UK leaves the EU:

Coincidentally, here are just a few of the donations made to Boris Johnson by hedge fund managers in the run up to his decision to back Brexit:

Johan Christofferson – £20,000

Peter Dubens – £10,000

Investors in Private Capital Ltd – £25,000

Sir Michael Hintze – £5,000 Hedge fund managers backing ‘Out’ campaign set to make millions from Brexit

Boris Johnson bankrolled by hedge fund managers set to gain £250m a year from Brexit

 

[stethoscope]

And yet Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and other banks have made huge donations to staying in?

So, I'm not sure what point you're trying to prove really. Both in and out arguments are being led by neo-liberalism and capital interests over everybody else. Well yeah.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

And if we do vote to leave, there is nothing to stop the EU from raising trade tariffs against our exports, or indeed barring financial transactions via the London markets. Frankfurt would probably be the main winner in that scenario.

Yeah, can just see the VW Group of turkeys voting for that Christmas.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

The illustrator of the Gruffalo has stated that there would be no Gruffalo if Britain was not in the EU.

Serious times.

 

[Libertad]

The illustrator of the Gruffalo has stated that there would be no Gruffalo if Britain was not in the EU.

Serious times.

Indeed.

 

[brogdale]

Boris Johnson bankrolled by hedge fund managers set to gain £250m a year from Brexit

and £250M (these figures look suspiciously small?) from Bremain. The clue being in the name; hedge funds.

 

[newbie]

And yet Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and other banks have made huge donations to staying in?

So, I'm not sure what point you're trying to prove really. Both in and out arguments are being led by neo-liberalism and capital interests over everybody else. Well yeah.

isn't the point about city gambling that they'll all put money on both sides and expect to win whatever happens?

Anyway 250m is peanuts to the likes of Goldman Sachs & JPMorgan, and Tom Pride is being silly, Johnson could get 60 grand from either side, suggesting he's been bought is a bit farfetched.

e2a brogdale types faster and put it better

 

[gosub]

G20 finance ministers now doing the 'but, but, for the good of global capitalism…' fear-stoking for the UK to stay in.

Brexit 'could pose a risk to the world economy', says draft G20 communique

That's quite insulting to the Scots. I'd guess Gideon asked them all to come up with a soundbite and they did.

Don't remember them doing similar in the Scots referendum. The EU debate : there's a clear exit mechanism where things can be managed. The Scot referendum, that was, a one level, an existential crisis in a global reserve currency at the core of one the world most significant financial centres...with no agreed procedure had Yes won.

 

[gosub]

The referendum will be decided by 35% of the population who don't really care either way and will vote on the recommendation of the politicians they trust, which in 80% of referendums around the world those politicians are in the government they just elected. This referendum is likely to conform to that pattern* and those who want to leave won't accept the result anyway; "It was a government/establishment stitch-up," "they didn't campaign on the real issues." And the first piece of social or environmental pan-European legislation post-referendum will also produce cat calls from the likes of Farage who will tell you that "this is not what the British people voted on they voted for free trade and we've been conned again."

Belonging to the EU is not some sideshow but a fundamental issue about where you want to take the country. Any leader who calls a referendum on this issue is masking the fact that they are not in control of their own party. It's lucky for Cameron that most of the public don't care enough about the EU either way to question this weakness.

* Although Toby Young on Newsnight made the point that this referendum will be different to 1975 as the inclusion of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson will mean that Out campaigners can't be portrayed as cranks and chancers.

Well,if I'm honest I am finding this the civil service is campaigning for IN stuff a bit :neutrality of of the civil service, Treaty of Vienna and all that, And this legally binding treaty Cameron's done with the other EUropean Head's of Government, that doesn't seem to need to go through their Parliaments.

The abandonment of the Electoral Commission guidelines, with regard to timeframe, not so much.


I'd quite like to hear what the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Select Committee get out of Sir Jeremy Heywood on Tuesday afternoon, but it doesn't appear to be being streamed.

 

[stethoscope]

UK officials 'instigated G20 Brexit warning'

A bleak warning that a British exit from the EU would deliver a shock to the global economy was introduced into the formal communique of the G20 finance ministers in Shanghai after lobbying by the UK, according to diplomatic sources.

The warning by the G20 was seized on by George Osborne who said that his fellow finance ministers had “given their unanimous verdict that a British exit from the EU would be a shock to the world economy”.

British officials said that the warning about a UK exit was raised by the Chinese before the Shanghai meeting. But a diplomatic source from another G20 country challenged the Treasury account and said that UK officials had proposed the Brexit warning in meetings in Shanghai before the chancellor arrived. The wording was then proposed by British officials.
he suggestion by the diplomat would tally with a report in last Friday’s FT which said that the UK was pushing the G20 finance ministers to issue the warning.

The chancellor declined to be drawn on whether Britain had lobbied for the warning to be added to the communique as he used the tough wording to apply new pressure to Boris Johnson by saying the referendum was not a game. Asked by the BBC whether he had asked for the wording, Osborne said: “Well, you’ve got countries round the table like the US, like the IMF, like the Chinese who frankly don’t do what anyone tells them to do. They, along with other financial leaders here in Shanghai, have come to a unanimous verdict that a British exit from the EU would be a shock to the world economy. If it is a shock to the world economy imagine what it does to Britain. So this is not some amusing adventure into the unknown.”

 

[goldenecitrone]

The illustrator of the Gruffalo has stated that there would be no Gruffalo if Britain was not in the EU.

Serious times.

Or Tintin. Or Asterix. Just Enid Blyton. Which is what the little Englander swine want though.

 

[redsquirrel]

Infighting in gov ranks getting nastier

Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, is facing allegations that he is acting in a constitutionally improper manner following reports that senior civil servants are being told to bypass ministers who want to leave the EU.

Bernard Jenkin, the chairman of the Commons public administration select committee, said Heywood appeared to be acting in an “unorthodox and unprecedented” manner.

Heywood is expected to face pressure on Monday amid signs that John Bercow would grant an urgent question in the Commons about guidelines banning civil servants from showing official papers related to the EU referendum to Brexit ministers.

All to the good.

 

[gosub]

Infighting in gov ranks getting nastier


All to the good.

be under even more pressure when Heywood has to go before Jenkin's Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Select Committee (7 out / 4 in) at 4:15 on Tuesday. Which isn't streamed, unlike their meeting in the morning and unlike the meeting that using that room in the morning, and pretty much all other business in Westminster that day, and they have spare channels.

UpPeriscope!

 

[newbie]

I'm with redsquirrel in celebrating tories tearing each other to bits.

I can see why Out are whining but they're delusional if they think In won't use every possible lever and dirty trick they can find. Power to influence others is central to that, whether it's ordering the civil service around or smarming the G20. Out doesn't have that power or the same opportunities. This is getting dirtier, both sides will obviously use everything they can, from personality based smearing and you can't be in our gang anymore to anything else they can find.

I'd like to think that will be confined to the tories and the left- or, as the other thread puts it, 'progressive'- side of the debate will take a longer-term approach, recognising that we're all going to be on the same side afterwards, whatever the result. That's probably me being delusional though

 

[teqniq]

Yup if cuts, cuts, cuts, blatant dishonesty and suchlike can't motivate public opinion sufficiently to want them gone then I'm more than happy to see them tear themselves apart.

 

[J Ed]

I wonder how many of those whining about this iteration of Project Fear were on board with the lies, distortions and use of state power against the Scottish yes vote?

 

[teqniq]

Haha yes indeed.

 

[newbie]

I wonder how many of those whining about this iteration of Project Fear were on board with the lies, distortions and use of state power against the Scottish yes vote?

quite so. I can't be bothered to go back and check but I'll bet the Gove, Johnson and Duncan Smith's of this world were perfectly happy to deploy whatever they could in that (and the AV ref).

they won't be gone at the end of all this, it's just a question of which ones are holed below the waterline on the way. the more the merrier

 

[marty21]

What I am looking forward to is the infighting / civil war within the Tory Party, if we bremain - then Cameron will surely settle some scores afterwards - if we brexit, then he'll have to go and then there will be a bruising leadership battle and possibly a snap election. The new leader will not want to have to deal with legitimacy issues, they won't want to be a tory Gordon Brown.

 

[Dogsauce]

Sooner or later the 'In' campaign will realise they have to offer people something to vote for rather than against. The kipper types (who form the majority but not all of the out campaign) have a lot of well-motivated and vocal supporters, and are mostly of the demographic that is more likely to vote. I think building support for the 'In' campaign is harder, particularly as the liberal and soft-left types more likely to support this won't feel as enthusiastic rallying to Cameron's flag.

What are the betting markets saying? I know some people on here follow that stuff (gambling sites blocked at work so no can't check myself)

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

I wonder how many Scottish nationalists will be voting to leave the EU as a way of making another referendum on Scotland more likely.

 

[kabbes]

I wonder how many Scottish nationalists will be voting to leave the EU as a way of making another referendum on Scotland more likely.

Won't work if the breakdown of the vote shows that people in Scotland voted to leave the EU in similar numbers to the rest of the UK. They will only get another referendum if the vote goes to LEAVE and there is clear water between the popularity of that in Scotland versus Rump UK.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Sooner or later the 'In' campaign will realise they have to offer people something to vote for rather than against.

Not necessarily. They have the advantage of the status quo. They might well win even if they have no campaign at all.

 

[marty21]

Not necessarily. They have the advantage of the status quo. They might well win even if they have no campaign at all.

As did the stay in campaign in the Scottish referendum, I've a feeling the vote to Brexit will be a lot lower than the very enthusiastic kippers are saying. I also think if we vote to stay, it won't 'lance the boil' , kippers will be incensed and will keep on going, convinced that the majority vote was wrong - plus they will have conspiracy theories to feed off for years and media bias too

 

[Smangus]

If the vote is to stay the Tories will implode.

 

[teqniq]

I prefer the 'they will implode anyway' option. Well I can always live in hope.