The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[kabbes]

Distance clearly plays a huge factor, especially if the goods are being transported by air, and when there are no rail/overland alternatives available.

But you made a statement. I was saying that the equation is complicated and it could go either way. You told me this was unequivocally wrong and it is definitely always better for the environment to import from the EU (regardless of where in the EU, I note). I asked you why this was and you posted a map saying “far away”.

So which is it? Is it a complex equation with many factors to take into account or is that irrelevant because it is definitely always better to import from anywhere you like in the EU, just based on distance alone?

 

[Raheem]

And the counter argument is that by the time you have factored in every element of the production cost in energy terms, it might actually be more efficient to ship it longer distances if that is countered by reduced factors of production.

It might be, but the question to ask is whether it is.

In the case of Australia, it is going to be a challenge - an impossibility, probably -to find anything to which this is going to apply, because the difference in the energy cost of transportation to the UK is very large whatever you are exporting.

Analogy: It is very often quicker to walk to the shops than to drive, because of traffic, the time it takes to park etc. But that is never going to apply if the shops are 40 miles away.

 

[kabbes]

It might be, but the question to ask is whether it is.

In the case of Australia, it is going to be a challenge - an impossibility, probably -to find anything to which this is going to apply, because the difference in the energy cost of transportation to the UK is very large whatever you are exporting.

Analogy: It is very often quicker to walk to the shops than to drive, because of traffic, the time it takes to park etc. But that is never going to apply if the shops are 40 miles away.

Yes, I don’t know which is actually the environmentally better option. No idea, because it’s complicated. The fact that wine is transported from Australia in sacks rather than glass bottles, can be shipped on the ocean and can make the return journey in ships that would otherwise be empty are all factors in its favour though. Contrast wine from, eg, Bulgaria transported in glass bottles in small batches on the road.

 

[TopCat]

I don't think I've ever, ever drunk Aussie wine in my entire life, so what you thought was a Paxmanesque killer blow was in fact empty floundering.

I do drink Fosters lager though. I ignore the haters and the snobs.

Fair enough. I believe you don’t drink Aussie wine.
I have to disagree regarding Fosters lager though. I just have never liked low strength brewed in the uk under licence lager.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Distance clearly plays a huge factor, especially if the goods are being transported by air, and when there are no rail/overland alternatives available.

By air, ok. Shipping is a bit different, though (setting aside all the other problems with shipping - deafening whales etc).

But it's not the only factor, and it can still make sense, energy-wise, for production to be specialised in particular areas that then export to one another. This stuff isn't always straightforward.

 

[editor]

Fair enough. I believe you don’t drink Aussie wine.

I don't drink ANY wine, mate.

*minesweeps at end of beer-starved late party excepted

 

[editor]

But you made a statement. I was saying that the equation is complicated and it could go either way. You told me this was unequivocally wrong and it is definitely always better for the environment to import from the EU (regardless of where in the EU, I note). I asked you why this was and you posted a map saying “far away”.

So which is it? Is it a complex equation with many factors to take into account or is that irrelevant because it is definitely always better to import from anywhere you like in the EU, just based on distance alone?

I refer you to post #9,902

Clearly there might be a small number of specialist exceptions but as a generality, it's almost always better to buy goods produced locally where possible, and if not, import those goods from nearby countries with direct rail links, rather than encouraging trade from countries some 10,000 miles away.

 

[The39thStep]

Is Australia the only country that excports kangarood meat? There was a trend for all this low fat meat about fifteen years ago kangaroo, ostrich, venison, reindeer wasnt there?

 

[TopCat]

Is Australia the only country that excports kangarood meat? There was a trend for all this low fat meat about fifteen years ago kangaroo, ostrich, venison, reindeer wasnt there?

It was a fad. Dry steaks with little fat.

 

[2hats]

Yes, I don’t know which is actually the environmentally better option. No idea, because it’s complicated. The fact that wine is transported from Australia in sacks rather than glass bottles, can be shipped on the ocean and can make the return journey in ships that would otherwise be empty are all factors in its favour though. Contrast wine from, eg, Bulgaria transported in glass bottles in small batches on the road.

Indeed it can be complex, but I'm fairly certain that Australian wine can't be shipped on the ocean from the vineyards it originates from.

 

[TopCat]

Indeed it can be complex, but I'm fairly certain that Australian wine can't be shipped on the ocean from the vineyards it originates from.

Explain?

 

[2hats]

Explain?

Try looking at a map.

 

[TopCat]

Try looking at a map.

Oh sorry you are so clever.

 

[Supine]

A big part of shipping wine in bulk is related to tax and finishing the manufacturing process in the destination country. Not just for environmental reasons.

Food is the bigger issue as Australian farms have economy of scale and our farmers simply cannot compete on cost because of it. You need to be a pretty hardcore brexiteer to see the good in this deal.

 

[kabbes]

I refer you to post #9,902

Clearly there might be a small number of specialist exceptions but as a generality, it's almost always better to buy goods produced locally where possible, and if not, import those goods from nearby countries with direct rail links, rather than encouraging trade from countries some 10,000 miles away.

You think that post 9902 is proof of your unequivocal statement that distance is all that matters?

 

[editor]

Here's the impact of importing Australian (and NZ) wine.

The results show that viticulture is the main hot spot in the life cycle of wine, contributing on average 41% to the impacts; this is mainly due to the life cycles of pesticides, fertilisers and fuels. Transport is the next largest contributor adding on average 32% to the impacts, largely from the shipping of wine to the UK from Australia. For instance, shipping generates around 0.33 kg CO2 eq. per bottle of wine. The impacts of packaging are also significant, contributing on average 24%, mainly owing to the production of glass bottles

Environmental impacts of consumption of Australian red wine in the UK

The UK consumes almost 5% of world's wine production, drinking 12.9 million hectolitres annually or 21 l per capita per year. Australian wines are mos…

www.sciencedirect.com

Over the course of a year, the UK imports 220 million litres of wine from Australia alone – producing 96 thousand tonnes of CO2 emissions. This is roughly equivalent to heating 35 thousand UK homes for a year. Importing wines from New Zealand adds an extra 19 thousand tonnes of CO2 to that total. It becomes even more astonishing when considering the import impact of wines from South Africa, South America and the USA.

Although the UK imports three times as much wine from France and Italy than it does from New Zealand, shipping wine from the New World still generates far more CO2 than buying from countries closer to home.

DB Reader: Carbon footprints in wine - a merchant's perspective - The Drinks Business

Oleg Dmitriev, co-founder of UK-based merchant Independent Wine, explains why he altered his business model this year to focus on selling wines made closer to home.

www.thedrinksbusiness.com

 

[editor]

You think that post 9902 is proof of your unequivocal statement that distance is all that matters?

Please read the post above, carefully focussing on this conclusion:

"Although the UK imports three times as much wine from France and Italy than it does from New Zealand, shipping wine from the New World still generates far more CO2 than buying from countries closer to home."

 

[kabbes]

Here's the impact of importing Australian (and NZ) wine.

You realise that shows the opposite of your statement that it is just a matter of distance, right?

 

[kabbes]

Please read the post above, carefully focussing on this conclusion:

"Although the UK imports three times as much wine from France and Italy than it does from New Zealand, shipping wine from the New World still generates far more CO2 than buying from countries closer to home."

Do you think this is about me stating that it’s better to ship from Australia than France?

Besides, that still leaves out of the equation what would be happening to the ships in the counterfactual in which the wine wasn’t taking the space. Would they be simply returning empty? It’s marginal cost that matters, not absolute cost.

 

[ska invita]

precisely 2 weeks to go before hundreds of thousands of people are going to find themselves deportable, unable to work, rent, access healthcare etc

 

[editor]

Do you think this is about me stating that it’s better to ship from Australia than France?

Besides, that still leaves out of the equation what would be happening to the ships in the counterfactual in which the wine wasn’t taking the space. Would they be simply returning empty? It’s marginal cost that matters, not absolute cost.

This 'returning empty' argument really is the worst. If the stuff isn't being exported in greater numbers, there'd be no extra ships there in the first place. And you agree what we should be reducing the distance that food and drink is being transported, especially when there's equally good goods almost on our doorstep?

 

[kabbes]

Hang on a minute. That article is totally misleading. It says

“Although the UK imports three times as much wine from France and Italy than it does from New Zealand, shipping wine from the New World still generates far more CO2 than buying from countries closer to home."

But it also says

“Over the course of a year, the UK imports 220 million litres of wine from Australia alone – producing 96 thousand tonnes of CO2 emissions. … Importing wines from New Zealand adds an extra 19 thousand tonnes of CO2 to that total.”

The second statement means that we import about 5 times as much wine from Australia than from New Zealand. That means the first statement — saying French and Italian imports only comprise three times the NZ import — says nothing at all about New World vs French and Italian impact!

It’s a clever piece of misdirection designed to make you think something is true despite not actually saying it.

 

[Raheem]

Yes, I don’t know which is actually the environmentally better option. No idea, because it’s complicated. The fact that wine is transported from Australia in sacks rather than glass bottles, can be shipped on the ocean and can make the return journey in ships that would otherwise be empty are all factors in its favour though. Contrast wine from, eg, Bulgaria transported in glass bottles in small batches on the road.

You're asking to use an imaginary scenario as a comparator, though. Bulgarian wine comes to the UK by sea (normally), because it is much cheaper. Australian wine will typically spend more time on the road before it leaves the country.

(Also, if the wine makes the return journey, that's very inefficient.)

 

[TopCat]

precisely 2 weeks to go before hundreds of thousands of people are going to find themselves deportable, unable to work, rent, access healthcare etc

Please do update us with figures of how many were actually impacted.

 

[Spymaster]

Hang on a minute. That article is totally misleading. It says

“Although the UK imports three times as much wine from France and Italy than it does from New Zealand, shipping wine from the New World still generates far more CO2 than buying from countries closer to home."

But it also says

“Over the course of a year, the UK imports 220 million litres of wine from Australia alone – producing 96 thousand tonnes of CO2 emissions. … Importing wines from New Zealand adds an extra 19 thousand tonnes of CO2 to that total.”

The second statement means that we import about 5 times as much wine from Australia than from New Zealand. That means the first statement — saying French and Italian imports only comprise three times the NZ import — says nothing at all about New World vs French and Italian impact!

It’s a clever piece of misdirection designed to make you think something is true despite not actually saying it.

Ooh. So it does.

 

[ska invita]

Please do update us with figures of how many were actually impacted.

will do
some stats for now
13,000 brits in france havent done their paperwork
Approx. 300,000+ in UK have applied but wont have legal status in time
employers, landlords, nhs, will be breaking the law if they dont refuse their services from 1st july, with large fines in place

this is what one deportation can look like

 

[MrSki]

It was a fad. Dry steaks with little fat.

Tastes a bit like chicken...

 

[Maltin]

Looks like we are going to have to eat more langoustines, mackerel and Australian meat.

Meat sector warns of Brexit production squeeze

UK faces shortage of home-reared chickens as EU workers stay away, says trade group.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[ska invita]

Looks like we are going to have to eat more langoustines, mackerel and Australian meat.

Meat sector warns of Brexit production squeeze

UK faces shortage of home-reared chickens as EU workers stay away, says trade group.

www.bbc.co.uk

"But migrants have been returning to their home countries due to Brexit effects including a weaker pound, a trend exacerbated by the coronavirus crisis, the British Poultry Council (BPC) said. Once they get home, many decide not to return."

Decide not to return? Its illegal for them to work here now.

 

[The39thStep]

Intersting article on the RTP website in Portugal ( probably extracted from some UK media )

The findings show a clear downward trend in job search in the UK among citizens of the 27 Member States.While interest in jobs in the UK declined across the board in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the platform concludes that surveys by non-EU citizens have since recovered to pre-pandemic levels, in reverse. interest of EU citizens.
According to numbers from Indeed , job searches in the UK by EU applicants were down 36 percent in May from 2019 average levels and 45 percent since 2016, the year of the referendum. If we look at the demand for low-paying jobs such as hotels, healthcare and warehouses – the most affected by post-Brexit immigration rules – the drop is even greater, dropping to 41 percent.

For high-paying jobs in technology, finance, medicine, engineering, the Indeed platform estimates that low demand from EU residents can be offset by interest from non-EU citizens
According to the platform's data, the number of clicks on higher paid jobs in the UK by non-EU citizens has increased by 39 percent.

“ Low-yielding jobs are not getting the same attention from foreign workers as they did two years ago. This means that domestic workers may be forced to fill in the gaps, ” explained Jack Kennedy, a British economist working at theIndeed, quoted by The Guardian newspaper . “However, with many sectors, including hospitality, already struggling to recruit all the staff they need, it may be necessary to impose higher wages to attract UK workers to fill these roles,” Kennedy added.