The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[Pickman's model]

The ”average leave voter” I referred to lives in England not NI. Apologies for sounding parochial. No offence taken or given I would hope ?

why? Are leave voters in Wales, Scotland or the six counties above or below average?

 

[BobDavis]

why? Are leave voters in Wales, Scotland or the six counties above or below average?

The simple answer would be that I have no clue what you are fucking on about but the fun answer to keep this exchange going would be would be that you would need to ask the average leave voters in Wales Scotland or NI. I have no access to those voters as I live in south east England so you will have to ask them for me. Phone a few & post up their answers.

 

[Pickman's model]

The simple answer would be that I have no clue what you are fucking on about but the fun answer to keep this exchange going would be would be that you would need to ask the average leave voters in Wales Scotland or NI. I have no access to those voters as I live in south east England so you will have to ask them for me. Phone a few & post up their answers.

How did you identify average leave voters? How would I know them? To avoid my reinventing the wheel I'd be grateful if you could share your method.

 

[editor]

A government paid for advert linking to this just appeared on my twitter, these are the new rules, the points & salary based system, that they need to follow if a business wants to employ people from outside the UK.

UK points-based immigration system: employer information

Information for employers on the UK’s points-based immigration system.

pbisemployers.campaign.gov.uk

I think this is where, once covid is over and things re-open, we’ll start to notice what’s changed more, though maybe only apparent in big cities.

View attachment 255089
I think there’s going to be a lot of ‘shortage occupations’.

If I'm reading it right, I suspect those new rules might well kill off some pubs who have continually struggled for staff.

My local has been staffed (and run) almost exclusively by non-UK workers for over a decade - something I think adds to the pub's atmosphere.

 

[BobDavis]

Do you mean the government is against parliament & on the same side as ‘the people’ and that’s why they didn’t prepare ? I think the other explanation, ie stupidity, is more viable.

Once the deal was done & the nature of it known preparing & putting all the systems & personnel in place & testing it would have required an extension of the transition period for at least 2 years. The EU offered this. That going from one to the other overnight would cause chaos was so obvious even the totally stupid would have known. After over 4 years of argument the government decided & in fact campaigned for election on leaving completely at the end of 2020 as an ideological position whatever the economic cost.

Parliament & the judiciary working against the people was a position taken by the popular right wing press. Johnson‘s advisors like Cummins etc based the whole “get brexit done” campaign on it I think.

 

[Pickman's model]

After over 4 years of argument the government decided & in fact campaigned for election on leaving completely at the end of 2020 as an ideological position whatever the economic cost.

You have not a clue what they campaigned on. We left the eu not in December 2020 but at the end of January 2020. The transitional period is what they refused to extend. And the deadline for that was in June last year, rather after the election

 

[BobDavis]

How did you identify average leave voters? How would I know them? To avoid my reinventing the wheel I'd be grateful if you could share your method.

I live in an over 70% leave voting area. I know the reasons people I know voted leave. I have no reason to suspect leave voters in other areas of England with very high leave voting percentages would think differently to them. I have visited most of those areas in my time.

What got the leave vote just over the line was those very high over 70% leave votes in areas of England outside the largest cities imo. Those would have been the average leave voters I referred to. I guess you live in London & may not be familiar with the areas of England I refer to. If you are then you will know perfectly well the average leave voters I refer to. Where I live & in similar areas there is indeed no discernible difference pre or post brexit. Life goes on as it always did.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

My local has been staffed (and run) almost exclusively by non-UK workers for over a decade - something I think adds to the pub's atmosphere.

 

[BobDavis]

You have not a clue what they campaigned on. We left the eu not in December 2020 but at the end of January 2020. The transitional period is what they refused to extend. And the deadline for that was in June last year, rather after the election

They campaigned to get brexit done. That was the simple message that people voted for after years of argument. Until the end of 2020 the transition period mirrored EU membership. Nothing changed visibly until then. The EU indeed offered to extend the transition period & needed an answer by June 2020. They got their answer due to the ideological position of the current government.

 

[Pickman's model]

I live in an over 70% leave voting area. I know the reasons people I know voted leave. I have no reason to suspect leave voters in other areas of England with very high leave voting percentages would think differently to them. I have visited most of those areas in my time.

What got the leave vote just over the line was those very high over 70% leave votes in areas of England outside the largest cities imo. Those would have been the average leave voters I referred to. I guess you live in London & may not be familiar with the areas of England I refer to. If you are then you will know perfectly well the average leave voters I refer to. Where I live & in similar areas there is indeed no discernible difference pre or post brexit. Life goes on as it always did.

So you just mean leave voters, the average an extraneous description designed to beguile the unwary

 

[Pickman's model]

They campaigned to get brexit done. That was the simple message that people voted for after years of argument. Until the end of 2020 the transition period mirrored EU membership. Nothing changed visibly until then. The EU indeed offered to extend the transition period & needed an answer by June 2020. They got their answer due to the ideological position of the current government.

They campaigned as you say to gbd. They specified leaving the EU in January 2020. There is no need in future to repeat to me what I've said to you.

 

[BobDavis]

So you just mean leave voters, the average an extraneous description designed to beguile the unwary

I guess you live in a remain voting area of London so you will know average remain voters. I only know average leave voters. Nobody I know except me voted remain. The average leave voters I know would describe themselves as average. I because I asked them & to call yourself unwary is simply disingenuous.

 

[Pickman's model]

I guess you live in a remain voting area of London so you will know average remain voters. I only know average leave voters. Nobody I know except me voted remain. The average leave voters I know would describe themselves as average. I because I asked them & to call yourself unwary is simply disingenuous.

have you met any leave voters who wouldn't (in your belief) describe themselves as average or similar, or who haven't when asked described themselves as such? Is it in fact a meaningful description?

 

[BobDavis]

They campaigned as you say to gbd. They specified leaving the EU in January 2020. There is no need in future to repeat to me what I've said to you.

The government agreed to a transition period. At the start of this exchange you might observe I was referring to how things looked & felt & there was no discernible difference around where I lived so things felt exactly like EU membership until the end of 2020 when those directly affected ie though their work found things changed massively overnight but to others not directly affected things look no different.

 

[bimble]

If I'm reading it right, I suspect those new rules might well kill off some pubs who have continually struggled for staff.

My local has been staffed (and run) almost exclusively by non-UK workers for over a decade - something I think adds to the pub's atmosphere.

Either a whole bunch of things that depended on workers from the Eu will be killed off by the new immigration system, or there’ll soon be a massive long list of exceptions (‘shortage occupations’, like fruit & veg picker is already a special case, others will join maybe including barrista, bar staff etc where employers will not have to meet these rules to get non Brit workers), or else jobs and incomes for British people will rise as businesses will find a way to adjust without migrant labour lowering wages.
The last ones the hope isn’t it, i think the first two more likely.

 

[BobDavis]

have you met any leave voters who wouldn't (in your belief) describe themselves as average or similar, or who haven't when asked described themselves as such? Is it in fact a meaningful description?

No so yes average leave voter is a meaningful description.

 

[Pickman's model]

No so yes average leave voter is a meaningful description.

and the meaning it conveys is...

 

[editor]

Either a whole bunch of things that depended on workers from the Eu will be killed off by the new immigration system, or there’ll soon be a massive long list of exceptions (‘shortage occupations’, like fruit & veg picker is already a special case, others will join maybe including barrista, bar staff etc where employers will not have to meet these rules to get non Brit workers), or else jobs and incomes for British people will rise as businesses will find a way to adjust without migrant labour lowering wages.
The last ones the hope isn’t it, i think the first two more likely.

I'd love it if workers start getting guaranteed better wages, but I imagine the most likely outcome will be Brexit making no difference at all and some pubs/cafes struggling to keep afloat or closing altogether because of staff shortages.

 

[BobDavis]

and the meaning it conveys is...

That the leave voters I know & those that live in similar very high percentage leave voting areas are average leave voters.

 

[bimble]

I think lots of businesses closing over the coming year or 3 is the most likely result of the new immigration system too. Whether it was covid or brexit that killed them won’t ever be clear with things like pubs cafes hotels etc unless they go down shouting about what the problem is in some concerted way.
Don’t know if I’ve ever bought a takeaway coffee off a British person, in London. Out here nobody sells such a thing so we won’t notice any change.

 

[ska invita]

I think lots of businesses closing over the coming year or 3 is the most likely result of the new immigration system too.

Maybe...but as likely the government will allow some poorer people to come in too.
Via the Pacific/CANZUK trade deal perhaps?
How many people are coming from Hong Kong? I read this week that as well as eligible BNO passport holders (who had to be born before handover - 1997 IIRC) younger people from HK are putting in asylum claims.
Totally within the governments ability to grant temporary guest worker visas, etc. - less rights than previously within the EU for those workers of course.
Think that'll happen in time

 

[Spymaster]

I think lots of businesses closing over the coming year or 3 is the most likely result of the new immigration system too.

The other side of this of course is that the field has been levelled for non-EU citizens. An Indian is now just as able to work here as a German. As a result skill shortages (especially in areas like tech and analytics) will be filled. This is a huge win for those types of businesses.

 

[The39thStep]

I think lots of businesses closing over the coming year or 3 is the most likely result of the new immigration system too. Whether it was covid or brexit that killed them won’t ever be clear with things like pubs cafes hotels etc unless they go down shouting about what the problem is in some concerted way.
Don’t know if I’ve ever bought a takeaway coffee off a British person, in London. Out here nobody sells such a thing so we won’t notice any change.

This is the very point this lady was trying to make about the effects of Brexit

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The other side of this of course is that the field has been levelled for non-EU citizens. An Indian is now just as able to work here as a German. As a result skill shortages (especially in areas like tech and analytics) will be filled. This is a huge win for those types of businesses.

How does that work? How does imposing more restrictions on immigration help fill jobs?

Why not impose an internal passport system while we're at it, Soviet Union/Cuba-style? It would level the playing field so that people wanting to work in London coming from, say, Yorkshire, no longer have an unfair advantage over non-Brits. That would make it even easier to fill skill shortages.

 

[bimble]

The other side of this of course is that the field has been levelled for non-EU citizens. An Indian is now just as able to work here as a German. As a result skill shortages (especially in areas like tech and analytics) will be filled. This is a huge win for those types of businesses.

How did Eu membership stop tech & analytics jobs being filled?

 

[bimble]

This is the very point this lady was trying to make about the effects of Brexit

This is funny cos I’m exactly like that lady, same weird red outfit and everything. But no, she claims that British people don’t want those jobs, I didn’t say that, I just think now that foreigners can only get a job here if it pays over £26,500 it’s likely there will be (many) businesses who go bust as a result.

 

[agricola]

Eh? They are still tories.

both Grieve and Lidington are former Tory MPs, and Grieve actually stood against a Tory candidate in 2019

 

[ska invita]

The other side of this of course is that the field has been levelled for non-EU citizens. An Indian is now just as able to work here as a German. As a result skill shortages (especially in areas like tech and analytics) will be filled. This is a huge win for those types of businesses.

in theory both as able and as unable, though as you say, well paid jobs above the 26k threshold should be more diverse in terms of foreign workers, however the points based system is not the meritocracy it might seem - this has a good overview of how bias remains and it continues to favour certain workers over others:

Points-based immigration was meant to reduce racial bias. It doesn't | Justin Gest

While points-based systems are designed to reduce racial bias, they reproduce this bias in more subtle ways

www.theguardian.com

no migration policy is without its pitfalls
what i particularly dislike about this one is its classist nature

 

[editor]

Universities are going to be hit hard:

Huge fee hikes for EU students who want to study art in the UK come into force from September
Visa issues and increased red tape could also deter European Union applicants, warn university leaders


Universities and art schools across the UK are bracing themselves for a difficult autumn when tuition fees for students from the European Union (EU) will increase dramatically following Britain’s departure from the bloc in January 2020. From September 2021, EU students will be charged fees at the international student rate for both undergraduate and postgraduate courses (previously EU students were charged the same as UK home students).

In addition, students from the EU will also no longer be able to apply for UK student loans. “The entire higher education sector is concerned about the impact higher fees and the removal of access to student finance will have on EU applicants to undergraduate courses,” says a spokeswoman for Goldsmiths, University of London, the alma mater of Damien Hirst and Sarah Lucas.

Alixe Bovey, the dean and deputy director at the Courtauld Institute of Art in London, says: “EU students have always been an important part of the Courtauld’s community, and like all UK universities, we are concerned by anything that might dissuade them from studying here. Fee rises, visas and an increase in red tape following on from Brexit could all have a negative impact on EU students wanting to come to the UK, and it is a situation we are monitoring closely.” Tuition fees on its MA History of Art will jump from £11,000 to £23,000 for EU students.

Rest of the article (as it's on a paywall)

The issue of visas for incoming EU students is also a concern. According to the British Council website, “if you [re: EU candidates] plan to arrive in the UK from 1 January 2021 onwards, you will need to apply for a student visa if you are studying a course which is longer than six months in length.” This application, which costs £348, needs to be accepted before arrival in the UK (Irish nationals living in the UK will continue to be eligible for home fee status and do not require visas).

The spokeswoman for Goldsmiths says: “We’ve been working closely with students, school counsellors, agents, advisers and partners across the EU over the past four years to ensure that everyone has the correct information and advice to support prospective students in making an informed decision, including changes to immigration status of students from 2021.” Fees for its BA Fine Art/History of Art courses will increase for EU applicants from £9,250 (home status) to £23,870 (international).

Crucially, most institutions are offering a range of scholarships and awards enabling EU students to offset costs. Paul Thompson, the vice-chancellor of the Royal College of Art, says: “There continues to be significant interest in RCA programmes from EU students and we have just implemented a £500,000 fund to attract students from under-represented and marginalised communities and will be hoping to offer this support to students who would otherwise find the cost of UK universities beyond their reach. The fund will increase to £1m per annum next year.” The full impact on EU applications across UK universities remains to be seen, not least because the entire sector is still dealing with Covid-19, he adds.

Other institutions—including the Courtauld, Glasgow School of Art, and the University of the Arts London (UAL)—all stress that they offer a wide range of scholarships to EU and international postgraduate students. UAL will offer the EU transitional award for eligible EU students starting their studies in 2021/22 whereby undergraduate applicants will receive a £10,000 fee reduction for every year of their course.

“We continue to carefully monitor the situation but are confident that creative education remains one of Britain’s great exports and that London is still a hugely attractive study destination,” the spokesman adds. MA course fees at UAL will increase for EU students from £12,280 to £25,880.

A government spokesperson says: “We have seen a significant rise in international students in recent years, with non-EU applications rising by 17% this year alone, and our recently-bolstered International Education Strategy aims to build on this. Our new Graduate Route and streamlined application processes also aims to attract students and support universities in sustainably recruiting at least 600,000 overseas students by 2030.”

Huge fee hikes for EU students who want to study art in the UK come into force from September

Visa issues and increased red tape could also deter European Union applicants, warn university leaders

www.theartnewspaper.com

 

[ska invita]

Universities are going to be hit hard:


Rest of the article (as it's on a paywall)

Huge fee hikes for EU students who want to study art in the UK come into force from September

Visa issues and increased red tape could also deter European Union applicants, warn university leaders

www.theartnewspaper.com

my sister was looking into studying in Denmark as a foreign student FOR FREE

it doesnt have to be this way, obviously