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The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

cupid_stunt said:
I am not convinced there will be a a leadership challenge, the damage was done by Johnson & Truss, and I don't think any leader would have had enough time to turn things around, and certainly not now, with so little time to the next GE.

And, who on earth would want to take on the job ATM, only to lose at the GE, may as well hang on until after, coming in to rebuild the party in time for a future GE.
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Maybe, but I feel that you're looking at this logically; remember that the crazed, psychopath ideologues vying for position don't use logic.
 
Monkeygrinder's Organ said:
I'm not even sure they're hoping for that really. At this point it's probably as simple as getting smashed later is better than getting smashed sooner.
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Yes, but there is always some prospect of a completely unpredictable event that would forestall a Starmer victory. And however bad the odds of alien invasions and suchlike, they are improved by waiting until 2025.
 
cupid_stunt said:
I am not convinced there will be a a leadership challenge, the damage was done by Johnson & Truss, and I don't think any leader would have had enough time to turn things around, and certainly not now, with so little time to the next GE.

And, who on earth would want to take on the job ATM, only to lose at the GE, may as well hang on until after, coming in to rebuild the party in time for a future GE.
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Mordaunt. She’s about to lose her seat. As leader, she could chicken run to the safest one on offer.
 
There'd be no shortage of takers given the opportunity. You can't guarantee another shot and ex-PM is a pretty lucrative position even if you were a short term disaster. There's no one the party will unify round though so they'll probably stick with Sunak.
 
cupid_stunt said:
That would be logical, the NI cuts are going to start showing up on pay-slips, inflation is coming down, interest rates should start to follow, not that I think any of that will give them a victory, but it could save a few dozen seats.
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I don't think the impact of that is going to help much, as people are going to compare it to how much poorer they have felt this last couple of years
 
Cloo said:
There's going to be a lot of this about coming up to the election, you can be absolutely sure. They will be taking the lessons from Cambridge Analytica to heart.
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They call it ‘astroturfing’ don’t they? Creating fake grassroots groups to stir up the masses. A lot of this in the states, started with the tea party lot. Groups with normal people but funded by billionaire dark money to serve their needs.
 
Some interesting analysis from John Curtice

Do local election results point to a hung Parliament?​


First, the polls suggest that more people who voted Conservative in 2019 have now switched to Reform than to Labour. But Reform were only on the ballot paper in one in six council wards. So, it may well be the case that people who would vote Reform if there had been a Reform candidate locally stuck with the Tories instead. Certainly, Conservative support fell more heavily where Reform did stand. In the BBC's sample of key wards the party's support fell by 19 points in these wards - compared with 11 points in wards where Reform did not stand. Labour, in contrast, did rather better where Reform stood. That 19-point drop matches the 19-point fall in the average level of Conservative support in the polls since May 2021. That figure may represent a better guide to the Conservatives' immediate prospects in a general election.

Second, the local election results confirm the message from last year's contests that the geography of party support has changed to the Conservatives' disadvantage.
The party's support fell more heavily in wards it was trying to defend. At the same time, some voters seemingly voted for whichever party was best placed to defeat the Conservatives locally. Labour's support increased most (at the expense of the Liberal Democrats) in wards where they started off second to the Conservatives, while the Liberal Democrats advanced most (and Labour did less well) in wards where were the principal challengers locally. Indeed, it is these two patterns that help explain why the Conservative Party lost nearly one in two of the council seats it was trying to defend. Conservative MPs would be unwise to assume that the same fate could not also befall them.
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From the Telegraph:

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg has urged Rishi Sunak to strike a general election pact with Reform UK and offer senior figures like Nigel Farage and Richard Tice the chance to be Tory candidates.

The former business secretary said the Prime Minister should make a “big, open and comprehensive offer to those in Reform” to join the Tories.

He said Mr Sunak should offer “candidate selection to senior members of the Reform Party such as the estimable Ben Habib, Richard Tice and of course, the one and only Nigel Farage”.

Sir Jacob argued that uniting the Right of British politics would put victory at the next election “within reach”.

He told GB News: “With the help of Nigel Farage in a Conservative government, as a Conservative minister, with Boris Johnson probably returning as foreign secretary and welcoming the likes of Ben Habib and Richard Tice into our party, as well as pursuing genuinely conservative policies, winning the next election suddenly becomes within reach.”

Mr Tice, the Reform leader, has repeatedly ruled out doing any sort of general election deal with the Conservative Party while Mr Sunak has argued a vote for Reform is a vote to put Sir Keir Starmer in No 10.
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Chris Philp said appointments to the Government are a matter for Rishi Sunak after he was asked about Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg’s suggestion about making Nigel Farage a minister (see the post below at 07.22).

Asked if he believed it was a good idea, Mr Philp, the policing minister, told Sky News: “I didn’t see that suggestion from Jacob. Who the Prime Minister brings into the Government is up to him.
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The Conservative Party should “get rid” of its moderate wing of One Nation MPs, the co-leader of Reform UK has suggested.

Ben Habib told Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg on GB News: “I would love for you to get rid of your One Nation lot. They’re the problem, aren’t they? The lot who think that the prosperity of our country is founded in the prosperity of the globe? It isn’t.

“The United Kingdom must stand for the United Kingdom and for the people of the United Kingdom. That’s who elects us."
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Reform deputy leader: Tories never do what they promise
Ben Habib, the deputy leader of Reform UK, claimed the Tories always fail to deliver on what they promise as he responded to Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg’s call for an electoral pact.

Mr Habib agreed that there was some common ground politically between the Conservative Party and Reform.

But he told Sir Jacob on GB News: “The problem I’ve got is that no matter what you say your party doesn’t do what it promises. We’ve heard these promises for 14 years.”

He added: “I would like nothing more than to be put out of politics by a resurgent centre-right, pro-British, pro-British people’s interest party that no longer necessitated people like me being in politics.

“I’m only here, frankly, because the Conservative Party hasn’t been conservative.”
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15 independents kind of under another new name, includes Corbz, Feinstein, Leanne Mohamad....

Candidates

Fifteen groups from the left have entered into a political pact in order to back a single candidate for each electoral seat. The first list below features candidates promoted by Collective, who are committed to upholding Corbyn's five demands, with more candidates set to be announced soon.
we-are-collective.org we-are-collective.org
 
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