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The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

Yea January seems most likely to me too. Voter apathy will be at a peak and more people will be put off voting labour after months of the Starmer campaign
 
Weather in January may be a bit of a risk. Not sure which party benefits more from low turnout now. It used to be thought that bad weather leading to low turnout worked to the tories' advantage.

with their ageing voter base that may not be the case now, although postal votes are now more or less on demand - at one time you used to have to come up with whatever constituted a good reason and request one.

And when does university term start again in January? An election at the point where students are somewhere between home and university may also benefit the tories.
 
The express reckons sunak wants a nov date because farage will be out of the country in america campaining for trump in their election. Sounds like bollocks but who knows what sunak may be thinking.
 
Weather in January may be a bit of a risk. Not sure which party benefits more from low turnout now. It used to be thought that bad weather leading to low turnout worked to the tories' advantage.

with their ageing voter base that may not be the case now, although postal votes are now more or less on demand - at one time you used to have to come up with whatever constituted a good reason and request one.

And when does university term start again in January? An election at the point where students are somewhere between home and university may also benefit the tories.
wasn't it always left of centre parties that lose out since they traditionally need higher turnout, no?
 
Weather in January may be a bit of a risk. Not sure which party benefits more from low turnout now. It used to be thought that bad weather leading to low turnout worked to the tories' advantage.

with their ageing voter base that may not be the case now, although postal votes are now more or less on demand - at one time you used to have to come up with whatever constituted a good reason and request one.

And when does university term start again in January? An election at the point where students are somewhere between home and university may also benefit the tories.

Old people all have postal votes. Because they're all far too busy bed blocking, being racist and drinking Cinzano and lemonade to pop down to the polling station in person.
 
While i think it likely sunak will leave it as long as possible, calling an election for january invariably means campaigning over the birth period of our lord and saviour. That seems weird if not blasphemous. I'm sure Mogg would have principled objections to having to interrupt Nanny's shopping spree and fox hunt meets in order to campaign.
 
‘Spooky Frank’ has been missing from our radar screens for 14 hours, last seen losing height with two engines trailing smoke & a dead tail gunner. Hope he’s alright
 
While i think it likely sunak will leave it as long as possible, calling an election for january invariably means campaigning over the birth period of our lord and saviour. That seems weird if not blasphemous. I'm sure Mogg would have principled objections to having to interrupt Nanny's shopping spree and fox hunt meets in order to campaign.

It’s all down to Sunak, who quite visibly hates campaigning. Christmas and a short lead time gives him a perfect excuse to avoid it.
 
I think they'll drag it out to the last possible day - and I think that's about two different things:

Electoral. Each day that isn't GE day, is a day that something might turn up. The more days that aren't GE days, the more days available in which something might turn up.

Ideological. Each salting of the earth they manage to get in makes it harder for Labour to recover from in time for the 2029/30 GE, and therefore theore of a fighting chance they've got of staging a recovery. The more days, the more salting of the earth, the less likely Labour will be to look worthy of reelection in 2029/30.

I previously thought he'd go for September/October, but not anymore. I think it'll be January.
 
hanging on would just look utterly desperate. Add in the hatred from his own activists for ruining their Christmas and it would be utterly ruinous for them.

I'm not sure that Sunak has any kind of relationship with the activists, I think that's a result both of his richer-that-Croseus, and 'techbro' background - he seems to make Starmer look like the life and soul of the party. He seems so wooden, like a talking mannequin, and i don't think thats just the way he comes over on TV, but that it's actually how he is.

Another of his political failings - I don't think he has any ability (empathy related, as above) to look at his position through the eyes of others - for everyone else it's just pitiful, desperate stuff, but he just doesn't get that.

I don't think I've ever seen a less skilled politician in my adult life. He makes Blair look like Clarkson or Wogan....
 
I think they'll drag it out to the last possible day - and I think that's about two different things:

Electoral. Each day that isn't GE day, is a day that something might turn up. The more days that aren't GE days, the more days available in which something might turn up.
Trouble is, the sort of things that will ‘turn up’ for them are far more likely to be stuff like more rape allegations, Covid PPE crookery and going a bit too far with the racism on Twitter than to be positive/helpful news.
 
Trouble is, the sort of things that will ‘turn up’ for them are far more likely to be stuff like more rape allegations, Covid PPE crookery and going a bit too far with the racism on Twitter than to be positive/helpful news.

Yeah, but that's not how they see it.

If there was an election tomorrow, they'd lose.

If there's an election in 6 months they might win.

If they wait, and something doesn't turn up, they're in no worse a position than they were.
 
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