JHE
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The latest polling figures from CIS are out. The data was collected about a month ago. The results corroborate the general pattern we've seen recently:
There are still a few months to go and all sorts of things could change.
(Just to mention one slightly pessimistic scenario for Podemos: if Podemos' support goes down a couple more percentage points it could find itself in the same unhappy position IU has been in many times, polling relatively well but failing to get as much as 10% of the vote because some people in areas with less support think that it would be a wasted vote and decide they'd be better off voting for PSOE.)
Supposing for a moment that the election goes more or less as the current polling figures indicate, the big question will be whether PSOE, Podemos and others can do some sort of deal to establish a more progressive government to replace PP (who will in that situation whine that it's all unfair because they came first).
- PP are in the lead, though still below 30% and heavily down on their very high (almost 45%) vote four years ago
- PSOE is on about 25%, significantly down on four years ago
- Podemos has fallen this year but is still a significant player (about 16%)
- Ciudadanos has less (about 11%)
There are still a few months to go and all sorts of things could change.
(Just to mention one slightly pessimistic scenario for Podemos: if Podemos' support goes down a couple more percentage points it could find itself in the same unhappy position IU has been in many times, polling relatively well but failing to get as much as 10% of the vote because some people in areas with less support think that it would be a wasted vote and decide they'd be better off voting for PSOE.)
Supposing for a moment that the election goes more or less as the current polling figures indicate, the big question will be whether PSOE, Podemos and others can do some sort of deal to establish a more progressive government to replace PP (who will in that situation whine that it's all unfair because they came first).