European Elections 2019

[cupid_stunt]

It's going to be a right pain having to wait for the results overnight on Sunday & into Monday morning.

 

[Orang Utan]

That yougov poll is scary
European Parliament voting intention: Brex 34%, Lab 16%, Con 10% (8-9 May) | YouGov

 

[killer b]

That yougov poll is scary
European Parliament voting intention: Brex 34%, Lab 16%, Con 10% (8-9 May) | YouGov

It shows the balance of lean brexit / lean remain to be roughly 50/50, still. It's just showing a collapse of the Labour vote into Lib Dem & greens, and the Tory vote into Brexit Party.

The range of the polls is so wide that someone has got their weighting completely off - we all have our preferences which, so I'm trying not to assume it's yougov.

 

[Steel Icarus]

How come the poll has closed two weeks before the election?

 

[Ranbay]

 

[Wilf]

You get the feeling that this shambolic fudge from Labour is a case of normal business will be resumed post Brexit or just hoping it all goes away. It wont of course. The Tories may implode but theres a huge amount of collateral damage for Labour over Brexit.

Yeah. TBH, I don't get it right too often, but I've long thought Labour's fudging and dodging was convincing no one, engaging no one and likely to lead to a situation where they couldn't take advantage of the Tories uber-pantomime.

Here's Kellner making a case that Labour are actually losing remain voters at the moment (not working class brexiteers):
The polls are clear – Labour’s Brexit tactics are failing spectacularly | Peter Kellner

TBH though, it doesn't really matter. Aside from a few more days of 'talks', Labour are not really in the game in the deeper politics of Brexit.

 

[Teaboy]

Yeah. TBH, I don't get it right too often, but I've long thought Labour's fudging and dodging was convincing no one, engaging no one and likely to lead to a situation where they couldn't take advantage of the Tories uber-pantomime.

Here's Kellner making a case that Labour are actually losing remain voters at the moment (not working class brexiteers):
The polls are clear – Labour’s Brexit tactics are failing spectacularly | Peter Kellner

TBH though, it doesn't really matter. Aside from a few more days of 'talks', Labour are not really in the game in the deeper politics of Brexit.

Yet the latest polls (see polling thread) for Westminster elections suggest a large lead for Labour. I wonder why a Guardian article would suggest Labour are failing?

 

[brogdale]

Y I wonder why a Guardian article would suggest Labour are failing?

Toughie, that one.

 

[killer b]

I kind of think that, while Labour's brexit policy is failing up to a point (although they do have a significant lead in the Westminster polls), any alternative policy would risk failing worse in some other way.

There seems to be a wide assumption that, somewhere, there is a brexit policy platform and political strategy that could see them with a massive lead and on-course to winning the next general election with a large majority. I just can't see it. Move the slider up at one point, it moves down in another.

 

[brogdale]

I kind of think that, while Labour's brexit policy is failing up to a point (although they do have a significant lead in the Westminster polls), any alternative policy would risk failing worse in some other way.

There seems to be a wide assumption that, somewhere, there is a brexit policy platform and political strategy that could see them with a massive lead and on-course to winning the next general election with a large majority. I just can't see it. Move the slider up at one point, it moves down in another.

Their analysis from the outset, I'd say.

 

[killer b]

There is no alternate universe where Labour could have a successful brexit policy, so aiming to fail less than the other guy seems to me to be the best they can do.

 

[brogdale]

There is no alternate universe where Labour could have a successful brexit policy, so aiming to fail less than the other guy seems to me to be the best they can do.

Agreed.
If Labour had wanted to set itself apart as the remain option and ride the 'youth quake' even harder the time for that was May 2017. Beyond that, and the manifesto pledge, there wasn't really any better option for them.

 

[Wilf]

I kind of think that, while Labour's brexit policy is failing up to a point (although they do have a significant lead in the Westminster polls), any alternative policy would risk failing worse in some other way.

There seems to be a wide assumption that, somewhere, there is a brexit policy platform and political strategy that could see them with a massive lead and on-course to winning the next general election with a large majority. I just can't see it. Move the slider up at one point, it moves down in another.

Polls/pinch of salt, but Labour at Westminster are polling about 13 points less than they got in the 2017 gen. election. I actually agree that there isn't ready made brexit position there for Labour. Taking a stance leads to alienating one side of their voters or the other, ditto the members and MPs. As a result they have this worst of all worlds. The only solution would have to have been wrapped in a wider engagement with voters and communities. Start with the policies, the engagement, the organisation. A Lexit if you like, but with an emphasis on the L bit. Doing the left bit, in or out.

 

[killer b]

Polls/pinch of salt, but Labour at Westminster are polling about 13 points less than they got in the 2017 gen. election. I actually agree that there isn't ready made brexit position there for Labour. Taking a stance leads to alienating one side of their voters or the other, ditto the members and MPs. As a result they have this worst of all worlds. The only solution would have to have been wrapped in a wider engagement with voters and communities. Start with the policies, the engagement, the organisation. A Lexit if you like, but with an emphasis on the L bit. Doing the left bit, in or out.

Surely by promising to honour the result of the referendum and trying to focus on domestic policy, that's more or less what they've tried to do?

 

[Wilf]

Surely by promising to honour the result of the referendum and trying to focus on domestic policy, that's more or less what they've tried to do?

I'm on about something different though, Labour haven't kicked on from Corbyn's own victories and from the 2017 result. They haven't moved beyond Labourism, they have retained a traditional social democratic view of how to organise and represent. Not surprising in some ways, that's what Corbyn is. But it has left them playing brexit out as a party issue and a Westminster issue/game.

But on what you say specifically, yes, just about. You could take that from Labour's headline message on Breixt - just about. But it has been wrapped up in almost permanent equivocation about 2nd refs, messages full of equivocation - to the point where only 13% have a clue what Labour thinks.

 

[killer b]

But it has been wrapped up in almost permanent equivocation about 2nd refs, messages full of equivocation - to the point where only 13% have a clue what Labour thinks.

Sure - which has been forced on the leadership by the activist base and the PLP. Which should point towards what would happen in the event of a more full-throated lexit position.

 

[Wilf]

Sure - which has been forced on the leadership by the activist base and the PLP. Which should point towards what would happen in the event of a more full-throated lexit position.

I don't disagree with you really, Labour's stance may have been the least bad and avoided bigger schisms. Ultimately though, Labour haven't escaped from the brexit dilemma because they have nowhere to escape to.

 

[brogdale]

Wales putting the tories into 6th place on 7 %!
But interesting to note that both main parties -10% compared to 2014.

 

[Argonia]

Bit confused by that Welsh poll, total down is 20 per cent and up is 47.

 

[chilango]

Bit confused by that Welsh poll, total down is 20 per cent and up is 47.

UKIP

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Got a leaflet from milkshake boy today. Will scan it tomorrow and post it up.

 

[The39thStep]

Theres a Brexit Party video showing clips of Benn and Foot and comparing that with modern day Labour which will do well with quite a few older w'class voters.

 

[William of Walworth]

Wales putting the tories into 6th place on 7 %!
But interesting to note that both main parties -10% compared to 2014.

View attachment 171191

Not in any way disbelieving that poll ( )

But I'd like to know more about which specific parts of Wales Brexit will do best in? And in which parts Labour might (?) do less badly.

 

[moochedit]

It's going to be a right pain having to wait for the results overnight on Sunday & into Monday morning.

The monday is a bank holiday though so you can stay up if you want to.

 

[toblerone3]

I'm voting GREEN in the Euros, Greens are anti-Brexit, for radical change on responding to climate change and the Euros are proportional representation. Its a win-win-win choice!
Edit or delete this

 

[brogdale]

Not in any way disbelieving that poll ( )

But I'd like to know more about which specific parts of Wales Brexit will do best in? And in which parts Labour might (?) do less badly.

I'd imagine that the Brx support will overlap significantly with where UKIP did well in the 2015 election:

 

[Tooter]

Either way can it get any worse? terrifying....

 

[moochedit]

How come the poll has closed two weeks before the election?

Opinion polls are normally done over 24 or 48 hours. They are just a snapshot of how people intend to vote at that point of the campaign.

 

[moochedit]

Opinion polls are normally done over 24 or 48 hours. They are just a snapshot of how people intend to vote at that point of the campaign.

Ah i think you mean the poll on this thread. I thought you meant the you gov poll.

 

[brogdale]

YG for Murdoch has Lab in 3rd in Euro polling (on a relatively large sample)...


BXP35+1
LD 16+1
LAB 15-1
GRN 10-1
CON 9-1
CHUK 5=
UKIP 3= (sample 7,192)
FW May 12-18