Local Elections (not that London) 2024

[Dogsauce]

I’m hoping someone might be having a quiet word with Starmer about it, but then probably not going to happen. They’ve way overcorrected on the antisemitism thing to the point of they daren’t say a word of criticism towards Israel. Netanyahu could literally eat a baby and they’d not even manage a whisper of dissent.

 

[The39thStep]

Blimey, that Parker bloke's a bit rubbish; embarrassing

Wait until you find out who he donated money to , which may explain why he became Labour's candidate

 

[JimW]

JimW some good news from biscuit tin lid country

One of the last to declare, was refreshing Sky's page most of yesterday. Quite the massacre! Should think the carpet-bagger Tory MP is considering her next career move.

 

[Elpenor]

Blimey, that Parker bloke's a bit rubbish; embarrassing

Thought he might be a political tiger tbh

 

[brogdale]

Let's not.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[BusLanes]

Well that's an old school thrashing

 

[Sasaferrato]

So, the Conservatives lost 474 seats, unsurprising, could have been more.

Where did those seats go though?

Labour got 186, 39.2%.

Green, Independent, Lib Dems and RA (presumably ratepayer's association? ) got 282, 59.6%.

The Conservatives certainly got a kicking, but I would imagine in his heart of hearts Starmer is somewhat worried by the results.

If this trend is repeated in the GE, Labour could find themselves in the position of not having an overall majority.

 

[kebabking]

So, the Conservatives lost 474 seats, unsurprising, could have been more.

Where did those seats go though?

Labour got 186, 39.2%.

Green, Independent, Lib Dems and RA (presumably ratepayer's association? ) got 282, 59.6%.

The Conservatives certainly got a kicking, but I would imagine in his heart of hearts Starmer is somewhat worried by the results.

If this trend is repeated in the GE, Labour could find themselves in the position of not having an overall majority.

See, he problem with that analysis is that the 'Keep St George's park open', and 'restore Bewdley paddling pool' candidates won't be running in the GE. Far more of a two horse race - the greens aren't going to win 30 seats, the LD's aren't going to win 100 - so it's either vote Tory, vote labour, or stay at home. Out here, in 'tory majority of 20k' land, it's the Tories who are going to stay at home.

 

[belboid]

So, the Conservatives lost 474 seats, unsurprising, could have been more.

Where did those seats go though?

Labour got 186, 39.2%.

Green, Independent, Lib Dems and RA (presumably ratepayer's association? ) got 282, 59.6%.

The Conservatives certainly got a kicking, but I would imagine in his heart of hearts Starmer is somewhat worried by the results.

If this trend is repeated in the GE, Labour could find themselves in the position of not having an overall majority.

lol. Nobody believes that independents will get 20% of the vote in a GE. Not even Kuenssberg. Labour majority of 100+ nailed on

 

[Puddy_Tat]

If this trend is repeated in the GE, Labour could find themselves in the position of not having an overall majority.

dunno really.

i said a few months ago that i felt more 1992 than 1997 about the coming election.

i still don't think there's any great enthusiasm for the starmer led labour party but am finding it harder to see the tories just managing to hang on.

turnout is almost always higher at general elections than local elections, you don't have so much of the independent / RA type candidates at general elections, and most seats are a 'two horse race' so more people will vote for whichever of those two they dislike least so as not to let the other lot in, rather than use what they see as a less important by-election / local election (or in the past euro election) to register a protest vote.

While 1997 was a 'labour landslide', it wasn't on the scale that local / euro elections in the few years before had suggested it would be - some of the english shire county councils that the tories lost in 1993 (they were left with one shire county council in england in 1993) went back to the tories in 1997.

there's maybe a handful of seats (i'm talking about england here) where there's even the slightest chance of someone who's not one of the three main parties getting in. again with a handful of exceptions, i can't see reform / green / workers / other doing much more than splitting the tory or labour vote and possibly helping the other lot.

then there's the effect of the boundary changes and voter ID requirements.

there's also the situation in Scotland which I can't claim to be expert in - from a distant observer's perspective, it looks as though labour is likely to gain westminster seats as a result of the SNP's current issues but i freely admit i don't understand all that's going on, or what serious options there might be for any voter who is pro independence but is pissed off with the SNP.

RA (presumably ratepayer's association? )

yes (or rat-catchers' association as one former colleague in a council job used to refer to them) - although mostly now 'residents association' what with domestic rates having been abolished some time ago. Not the Royal Artillery or the 'RA (the question did come up on another thread, or maybe even this one, yesterday)

 

[cupid_stunt]

If this trend is repeated in the GE, Labour could find themselves in the position of not having an overall majority.

As others have said the GE is very different to local elections, e.g. I know former Tory voters that voted Green on Thursday, because they were best place to take that ward in Worthing from the Tories, but will be voting Labour in the GE.

Over in Hastings, where the Greens are the largest group now, and I suspect will continue to work in coalition with the Hastings Independents, that are unlikely to stand in the GE, it's not a target seat for the Greens, and I suspect a lot of voters for those two will back Labour to take the seat from the Tories.

 

[Sasaferrato]

dunno really.

i said a few months ago that i felt more 1992 than 1997 about the coming election.

i still don't think there's any great enthusiasm for the starmer led labour party but am finding it harder to see the tories just managing to hang on.

turnout is almost always higher at general elections than local elections, you don't have so much of the independent / RA type candidates at general elections, and most seats are a 'two horse race' so more people will vote for whichever of those two they dislike least so as not to let the other lot in, rather than use what they see as a less important by-election / local election (or in the past euro election) to register a protest vote.

While 1997 was a 'labour landslide', it wasn't on the scale that local / euro elections in the few years before had suggested it would be - some of the english shire county councils that the tories lost in 1993 (they were left with one shire county council in england in 1993) went back to the tories in 1997.

there's maybe a handful of seats (i'm talking about england here) where there's even the slightest chance of someone who's not one of the three main parties getting in. again with a handful of exceptions, i can't see reform / green / workers / other doing much more than splitting the tory or labour vote and possibly helping the other lot.

then there's the effect of the boundary changes and voter ID requirements.

there's also the situation in Scotland which I can't claim to be expert in - from a distant observer's perspective, it looks as though labour is likely to gain westminster seats as a result of the SNP's current issues but i freely admit i don't understand all that's going on, or what serious options there might be for any voter who is pro independence but is pissed off with the SNP.



yes (or rat-catchers' association as one former colleague in a council job used to refer to them) - although mostly now 'residents association' what with domestic rates having been abolished some time ago. Not the Royal Artillery or the 'RA (the question did come up on another thread, or maybe even this one, yesterday)

Labour is forecast to take circa 30 seats in Scotland.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I can't believe we're still waiting the result for the Sussex police and crime commissioner, according to the BBC the count finally started around 1pm, apparently this and the results in Kent are the only ones still not declared.

 

[Wilf]

See, he problem with that analysis is that the 'Keep St George's park open', and 'restore Bewdley paddling pool' candidates won't be running in the GE. Far more of a two horse race - the greens aren't going to win 30 seats, the LD's aren't going to win 100 - so it's either vote Tory, vote labour, or stay at home. Out here, in 'tory majority of 20k' land, it's the Tories who are going to stay at home.

All true and local elections always tend to reduce the lead the leading party has nationally. Also, as things stand, Reflux standing in every constituency will fuck the tories even further. Same time, at a moment when the tory party has become little more than a bunch of rats in a sack, falling over a cliff, shooting themselves and each other in the foot, it's not all that great a performance by Labour. Almost certainly enough, but not spectacular. I'm still struggling to see Labour get anything like the Corbyn 2017 percentage whenever the election happens. Cliche alert: there's clearly not much appetite for Labour. It's purely that the tories have died, leaving this ghostly pallid thing - the artist formerly known as the Labour Party - as the last person standing.

 

[Leafster]

So, the Conservatives lost 474 seats, unsurprising, could have been more.

Where did those seats go though?

Labour got 186, 39.2%.

Green, Independent, Lib Dems and RA (presumably ratepayer's association? ) got 282, 59.6%.

The Conservatives certainly got a kicking, but I would imagine in his heart of hearts Starmer is somewhat worried by the results.

If this trend is repeated in the GE, Labour could find themselves in the position of not having an overall majority.

I'm in one of the council areas which returned 20 of the 48 Residents Association councillors listed on the BBC website. We also have five of the independents. So, nearly 60% of the councillors aren't from one of the Westminster parties. The motivations of the voters were, as kebabking mentioned, primarily local issues (mostly resistance to planning obligations placed on them by central government). The council area pretty much matches the Westminster constituency and historically it has been one of the safest Tory seats in the country. It has been mostly the Tory councillors who have been displaced by Residents Association ones so I suspect, come the General Election, that a large chunk of the RA voters may well return to the Tory fold.

I know my example is in a staunchly Tory area but I'm fairly certain it would be similar situation elsewhere.

 

[Bingoman]

When was the last time the Lib Dems finished second

 

[Leafster]

When was the last time the Lib Dems finished second

I believe it was 1996.

Guess what happened to the Tories next?

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[Kaka Tim]

Torys and commentators saying "the polls are wrong" based on the LA results are being very dsiengneuous - as pointed out -people vote very differently in local elections compared to general elections. In the westminster byelection in blackpool labour won with a massive swing - exaclty in line with the polls. The tories are going to get buried - I dont believe it will be the utter wipe out that some polls suggest where they get less than 100 seats - or even come third - but a 1997 thumping is very likely. Something like tories on 30% (assuming a lot of refukers return to the verminous fold) labour low 40s.

 

[BusLanes]

Reckon there's all sorts of lessons one can read from the tea bags.

Tories in disarray largely, people keen for an alternative from them and in some cases Labour. Greens and Lib Dems surging outside of London but staying still in London, maybe due to effect of FPP / fear of Susan? Ulez does work as a mobilising message in many places but not everywhere and probably not enough to save more than a few MPs.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Torys and commentators saying "the polls are wrong" based on the LA results is being very dsiengneuous - as pointed out -people vote very differently in local elections compared to general elections. In the westminster byelection in blackpool labour won with a massive swing - exaclty in line with the polls. The tories are going to get buried - I dont believe it will be the utter wipe out that some polls suggest where they get less than 100 seats - or even come third - but a 1997 thumping is very likely. Something like tories on 30% (assuming a lot of refukers return to the verminous fold) labour low 40s.

not disagreeing entirely, but people also tend to vote differently in by-elections (maybe more so if the government of the day has a comfortable majority) - it's relatively safe to vote for the other lot / make a protest vote / not bother when it's not going to have any chance of 'letting the other lot in' as far as changing the government is concerned.

don't know what proportion of by-elections end up with the seat going back to previous political colour come the next general election.

(although it took until 2005 for the tories to take back newbury after the 1993 lib-dem by-election win - i'd thought it had been sooner than that.)

 

[JimW]

Looking at my home two-seat ward in Stroud, the Tory candidates were last behind Labour, who took both, the Greens and two independents: https://www.stroud.gov.uk/media/2346197/rodborough.pdf

 

[Kaka Tim]

not disagreeing entirely, but people also tend to vote differently in by-elections (maybe more so if the government of the day has a comfortable majority) - it's relatively safe to vote for the other lot / make a protest vote / not bother when it's not going to have any chance of 'letting the other lot in' as far as changing the government is concerned.

don't know what proportion of by-elections end up with the seat going back to previous political colour come the next general election.

(although it took until 2005 for the tories to take back newbury after the 1993 lib-dem by-election win - i'd thought it had been sooner than that.)

true to an extent - but the byelection result was in line with all the polls showing labour around 20% ahead. The tories have only 6 months to claw that back and - short of labour adopting a policy of a mass culling of babies, kittens and puppies - that is not going to happen. In blackpool south the "protest vote" went to Refuk - who nearly beat the tories in to thirds place - but even if you combined their total vote share it comes to 34% - whears labour had close to 60%.
Even if the tories get ALL of Refuks current vote share in current national polling it still only puts them in the low 30s. Thats would still give labour a plus 60 majority at least. They are fucked. Even more so if farage decides to take on the tories come the GE.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

short of labour adopting a policy of a mass culling of babies, kittens and puppies

with starmer, anything's possible...

 

[cupid_stunt]

And finally we have a result for the PPC in Sussex, a Tory hold, as expected, because although the urban second tier councils have been taken by Labour, they are outnumbered by the rural ones, this on a turnout of under 25%, what a massive waste of time & money.

Results​

• Jamie Bennett, Liberal Democrats – 48,923 votes
• Katy Bourne, Conservative Party – 122,495 votes
• Jonathan Christopher Kent, Green Party – 43,105 votes
• Paul Adrian Richards, Labour and Co-operative Party – 99,502 votes

The turnout across Sussex was 24.49%.

Results of the Sussex Police and Crime Commissioner election

Katy Bourne (Conservative Party) has been re-elected as Sussex Police and Crime Commissioner following an election on Thursday 2 May.

www.brighton-hove.gov.uk

 

[Rimbaud]

View attachment 423087
those areas in green are the poorest parts of hastings,

View attachment 423088


I think this is interesting because of the adage that greens are a party of the middle class, and that environmental politics has a class problem in general .... none of which im denying, but its interesting to see that trend bucked.

there may be explanations though, for example, it might be that the poorest residents didnt vote and its the wealthier incomers who did

nonetheless, interesting to see

Yeah Greens do well in South Tyneside as well which is a pretty deprived area, same for them doing well in Elswick which is one of the poorer parts of Newcastle.

 

[ska invita]

 

[Dr. Furface]

.

 

[ska invita]

can anyone find data for people unable to vote because of no ID?