Local Elections (not that London) 2024

[The39thStep]

The protest vote in Birmingham was real, and I'm sure someone's going to do the work here, this was a snapshot of 930 wards yesterday.

View attachment 423075
Now if this is Gaza related, or just how Labour's become quite comfortable with islamophobia as it gets used to being in power again soon, is debatable. However, if it is Gaza - then Labour need Netanyahu not to go into Rafah, they need a cease-fire, and they need this to be off the agenda by the time Sunak calls an election.

Labour do not want to criticise Israel, because they've made a great show of rooting out antisemitism in the party and that too strongly criticising Israel will see them get hammered by the organisations they've been making nice with since 2019 - and they can't survive that. Which means they need Israel to stop doing war crimes, because that means they won't have to not criticise them.

However, there's already significant damage emerging. How bad it gets, and what effect that has on a General Election campaign, appears to be out of Labour's hands - only because they've painted themselves into a corner.

I wasn't suggesting it wasn't real. I followed the Greater Manchester Council election via social media and friends/family and it was obvious that WPB for example were going to run Labour close in several wards . The prognosis from Manchester Labour was that Gaza was an issue There is clear evidence that the Greens for example picked up votes due to their pro-Gaza position .

 

[redsquirrel]

The BBC is obsessed with Reform, still, despite the LDs gaining hundreds and Reform only having one seat. This is how narratives are allowed to blossom about the rise of the right etc

Coming within a ~100 votes of putting the Tories third place in a by-election is a story. As is the collapse in the Tory vote to Reform.

 

[brogdale]

The BBC is obsessed with Reform, still, despite the LDs gaining hundreds and Reform only having one seat. This is how narratives are allowed to blossom about the rise of the right etc

Seems like they have 2 councillors, now. Both in ward in the Leigh Park suburb of Havant.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Coming within a ~100 votes of putting the Tories third place in a by-election is a story. As is the collapse in the Tory vote to Reform.

Yep, it's not about the number of seats they won in the locals, but the damage they'll do to the Tories in the GE.

 

[The39thStep]

Labour Party analysis incoming

 

[PR1Berske]

I wasn't suggesting it wasn't real. I followed the Greater Manchester Council election via social media and friends/family and it was obvious that WPB for example were going to run Labour close in several wards . The prognosis from Manchester Labour was that Gaza was an issue There is clear evidence that the Greens for example picked up votes due to their pro-Gaza position .

Certainly looking at Blackburn, Pendle, Oldham, Rochdale, etc there's a pattern of Labour wards falling in Muslim areas, but only if there's a "suitable" or "relevant" candidate for votes to go to. That might not translate to the general election unless there's one clear alternative candidate.

 

[ruffneck23]

 

[ska invita]

I thought the Hastings result is interesting
Despite being one of the poorest parts of the country it returns Tories in the general elections (though the boundary includes wealthier Rye), but its a Tory to Green swing here, with even Labour losing seats

I was in Hastings this month and VOTE GREEN boards were up all over town in peoples windows
NOC

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[Tony_LeaS]

I thought the Hastings result is interesting
Despite being one of the poorest parts of the country it returns Tories in the general elections (though the boundary includes wealthier Rye), but its a Tory to Green swing here, with even Labour losing seats

I was in Hastings this month and VOTE GREEN boards were up all over town in peoples windows
NOC

View attachment 423082

Greens are building in that part of Kent, further up the road towards Folkestone and Hythe (with Saltwood being a fairly wealthy part of the area) they’ve been picking up councillors slowly but surely.

 

[ska invita]

those areas in green are the poorest parts of hastings,




I think this is interesting because of the adage that greens are a party of the middle class, and that environmental politics has a class problem in general .... none of which im denying, but its interesting to see that trend bucked.

there may be explanations though, for example, it might be that the poorest residents didnt vote and its the wealthier incomers who did

nonetheless, interesting to see

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[Ground Elder]

Greens are building in that part of Kent

The part of Kent that's in East Sussex?

 

[Sasaferrato]

Not exactly an endorsement of the efficiency of London, election on Thursday, Saturday lunchtime still no mayoral result.

 

[Orang Utan]

Not exactly an endorsement of the efficiency of London, election on Thursday, Saturday lunchtime still no mayoral result.

Wrong thread but the result wasn’t expected to be announced until this afternoon

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Not exactly an endorsement of the efficiency of London, election on Thursday, Saturday lunchtime still no mayoral result.

and west midlands and greater manchester.

doing the count (in all three) on saturday was - for whatever reason - always the plan.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Agree that the Greens can be reasonably happy but LDs have done pretty poorly considering that they were hoping to benefit from the collapse of the Tory vote, their projected national share is down 3 pp from last year and well down on the short of share they were taking in the 90s.

yes - in wokingham, where they consistently push the 'labour can't win here' and are putting quite a lot of effort in (fairly regular leafleting through the year, not just in the run up to an election) i expect that whatever they say in public, they will be a bit disappointed not to have done better than gaining one council seat, and as a result, not quite managing to gain overall control of the council.

and the labour vote has picked up a bit - labour concentrate on a few wards which are geographically if not administratively south / east Reading suburbs. 20 years ago, there was one ward in the borough that sometimes returned 1 labour councillor and sometimes didn't (labour used to consider it an achievement to get one councillor elected) this time labour have 8 (although some of this could be down to population changes - there's been significant housing development in the 'reading suburbs' bits of the borough in recent years.)

never really had much green presence here. unlike Reading where they are second biggest party (after yesterday, labour 32, green 8, tory 4, LD 3, independent 1 - and while there's a fairly mixed community there, no obvious Gaza effect, net gain was +1 for green, -1 for tory) and in many wards LD's finishing 4th. Not sure there's ever been a big LD presence in Reading - the two parliamentary seats are usually fairly close tory / labour marginals while the council is fairly safe labour (as a result of the parliamentary seats including suburbs that are outside the borough on both sides.)

The LDs have virtually disappeared in certain areas, where they were in a strong second position to the Tories, and occasionally ending up with the most seats, the coalition years hit them hard, not only have they never recovered, but it just continued to get worst for them.

didn't quite happen here (wokingham).

the parliamentary constituency (represented by old tory euro septic twunt mp john redwood rather than the new tory bnp-lite sort of twunt) isn't the same area as the borough - the 'reading suburb' areas come in to reading east constituency, and even more of the urban bits are being taken out for the next general election.

labour always used to be distant third in the parliamentary elections here (think it was 2005 when the candidate had to withdraw after being reported as saying he was looking forward to getting a chance somewhere they might win next time round - you're not supposed to get caught saying that) but labour managed to be distant second in 2015 and slightly less distant second in 2017, going back to third in 2019.

think in some places - and worthing may be an example - where a lot of the LD vote was tactical, and - apart from the 2010 coalition effect - if people start to doubt the 'labour can't win here' thing, then maybe there's a point where people do give up on them.

 

[The39thStep]

Turn out on the low side

 

[Bingoman]

Greens a close to the Tories here

 

[cupid_stunt]

Not exactly an endorsement of the efficiency of London, election on Thursday, Saturday lunchtime still no mayoral result.

If you think there's bad, the results of the Sussex police and crime commissioner's election are not due until tomorrow.

 

[Tony_LeaS]

The part of Kent that's in East Sussex?

It’s been a very long night shift as you can tell!

 

[Hollis]

I have a very low opinion of local Labour party councillors. If you can't be arsed to respond to emails, then why the hell should I bother voting for you.

Given that, I would never wish Susan Hall upon London. So here's hoping.

 

[ska invita]

It’s been a very long night shift as you can tell!

Tbf Hastings is near enough onthe border of Kent and has a lot in common with everything to it's east... Hastings more in common with Folkestone than with Brighton IMO

 

[WouldBe]

not that RA...

Royal artillery? Are we in for a coup?

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Royal artillery? Are we in for a coup?

i'm not gunner reply to that...

 

[Serge Forward]

i'm not gunner reply to that...

Don't worry, your day will come.

 

[stdP]

i'm not gunner reply to that...

I don't see howitzer problem.

 

[WouldBe]

i'm not gunner reply to that...

That should have been coup not couple. Bloody predictive text.

 

[The39thStep]

Burnham . A triumph of local municipal reformism in a sea of insipid national Starmerism