Local Elections (not that London) 2024

[xenon]

can anyone find data for people unable to vote because of no ID?

Presumably they don’t turn up. So how would they be counted. And even if they do and turned away our records even kept?

 

[xenon]

In case it’s interesting to anyone. I voted in our locals in Bristol. They were trialling accessible audio voting machines. Which to be honest is the only reason I went to vote, out of curiosity to see how they worked. Apart from some of the threating about whether the battery was going flat. Worked very well. green for what it’s worth. It’ll be labour I expect in the general.

 

[xenon]

Candidate lists are loaded onto a machine using USB sticks. Plug headphones in. Press buttons against each box to hear candidate. Open window, like a shit advent calendar. Buttons are alongside each window.

 

[WouldBe]

can anyone find data for people unable to vote because of no ID?

Me for one.

 

[Dogsauce]

Had a poke around the Leeds results as a curious ex-resident. A couple of Labour seats going green in the centre, including where I used to live in Armley, and in Harehills which has quite a large Muslim population, but somehow Wortley went Green to Labour, somewhere the greens have held for over a decade I think (I’m guessing strong local candidate as it’s not the typical place you’d expect greens to do well). In the outer better off suburban areas some Labour gains from Tories, in general perhaps a reflection of the national picture.

Morley still has its independents (they want to run themselves rather than be run by Leeds, very flag shaggy but not that fash-adjacent). Middleton voted in a Social Democratic Party candidate at the expense of Labour, think they’re dodgy far-right these days so curious what went on there - area is mix of quite rundown white working class estate and some suburban homes.

 

[Dom Traynor]

Wasnt there a Leeds based ex poster, social work lecturer, on here who went from anarchism to voting for the Yorkshire Party?

He ran as a candidate for them in the general election

 

[The39thStep]

can anyone find data for people unable to vote because of no ID?

isn't brogdale into this sort of stuff

 

[brogdale]

isn't brogdale into this sort of stuff

I'd imagine that we'll get a mix of the official record that only 3 people were affected in any way and some estimates from think-tanks etc. which try to address the hidden, and essentially unknowable, figure of those dissuaded from turning up at all. Must admit, I haven't looked yet.

 

[BusLanes]

I vaguely recall seeing someone on social media saying party tellers were sending people home to get ID in at least one area.

 

[The39thStep]

I'd imagine that we'll get a mix of the official record that only 3 people were affected in any way and some estimates from think-tanks etc. which try to address the hidden, and essentially unknowable, figure of those dissuaded from turning up at all. Must admit, I haven't looked yet.

ska invita

 

[brogdale]

A guardian piece the other day gave the 2023 estimate of those affected by Voter ID issues:

According to the Electoral Commission, in the 2023 local elections about 4% of non-voters did not participate because of the ID requirement. If repeated at a general election, that would mean more than a million non-voters. The Tories lost more than a thousand council seats, and without voter ID suppressing the turnout, the toll would almost certainly have been worse.

As with last year, assessing the full impact of voter ID on this week’s elections is likely to take months – non-voters and their precise motivations can be hard to pin down – but already more victims have emerged. They include a former soldier whose veteran’s ID card was not accepted, a woman whose ID was reportedly rejected solely because it was in her unmarried name, and, more pleasingly, the Tory politicians Tom Hunt and Boris Johnson, whose government produced the ID legislation. At the coming general election, when many more people want to vote than in local contests, the disruption of our supposedly smooth-running democracy is likely to be much greater.

 

[ska invita]

Presumably they don’t turn up. So how would they be counted. And even if they do and turned away our records even kept?

when i went to vote with no ID I got sent to the main secretary who took my polling card and made a note of it in some fashion that i had turned up + im pretty sure a figure was given at the last elections whatever they were

 

[brogdale]

when i went to vote with no ID I got sent to the main secretary who took my polling card and made a note of it in some fashion that i had turned up + im pretty sure a figure was given at the last elections whatever they were

Yes, that's right. 14,000 were recorded in the 2023 locals.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Had a poke around the Leeds results as a curious ex-resident. A couple of Labour seats going green in the centre, including where I used to live in Armley, and in Harehills which has quite a large Muslim population, but somehow Wortley went Green to Labour, somewhere the greens have held for over a decade I think (I’m guessing strong local candidate as it’s not the typical place you’d expect greens to do well). In the outer better off suburban areas some Labour gains from Tories, in general perhaps a reflection of the national picture.

Morley still has its independents (they want to run themselves rather than be run by Leeds, very flag shaggy but not that fash-adjacent). Middleton voted in a Social Democratic Party candidate at the expense of Labour, think they’re dodgy far-right these days so curious what went on there - area is mix of quite rundown white working class estate and some suburban homes.

yeah - i clocked that - the SDP stood in my ward Armley as well (got nowhere). I was wondering why they bothered still existing - then saw they'd won in middleton. Bizzare. Maybe the candidate was well known locally? Might do some digging.

 

[moochedit]

can anyone find data for people unable to vote because of no ID?

I think they are "supposed" to keep records of numbers turned away with no id and also how many of those returned later with id. No idea where those figures can be found online though and as others have said they wouldn't include people who were put of from going in the first place.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I'd imagine that we'll get a mix of the official record that only 3 people were affected in any way and some estimates from think-tanks etc. which try to address the hidden, and essentially unknowable, figure of those dissuaded from turning up at all. Must admit, I haven't looked yet.

yes- i think the official record will only list people who got as far as the desk in the polling station - and do they count it in a way that counts the people they have said 'no' to but who have come back later with proper identification, or do they get crossed off the list when they come back?

it won't count people who got as far as the sign outside and gave up at that point

or the people who didn't bother going at all

 

[hitmouse]

Bit late now, but I don't think this thread's had any mention of the fact that the 2024 locals saw the glorious debut of the Communist Future project:

Election results - Local elections 2024 | Manchester City Council

Past results for local and parliament elections and referendums in Manchester

www.manchester.gov.uk

Ancoats & Beswick​

Electorate: 12,679

Turnout: 30.08%

Candidate’s Surname	Other Name(s)	Description (if any)	Number of votes recorded	Elected
GOOD	Alan	Liberal Democrat	1,900	Elected
JARMAN	Julie	Labour Party	1,420
STRAFFORD	Chris	Communist Future - there is an alternative!	33
WALSH BENSON	Kate Sophie	The Green Party	366
WAN	Paul	The Conservative Party Candidate	76

Cheetham​

Electorate: 13,818

Turnout: 27.88%

Candidate’s Surname	Other Name(s)	Description (if any)	Number of votes recorded	Elected
ALI	Dawud	Independent	1,218
ALI	Shaukat	Labour Party	1,906	Elected
ASSAM	Patience	The Conservative Party Candidate	150
MORRISON	Roderick George Donald	Liberal Democrats	191
POTTS	Edmund	Communist Future - there is an alternative!	31
REZA-KHAN	Fesl	The Green Party	315

Piccadilly​

Electorate: 9,636

Turnout: 26.90%

Candidate’s Surname	Other Name(s)	Description (if any)	Number of votes recorded	Elected
HARRISON	Allison	Liberal Democrat	140
LYONS	Jon-Connor	Labour Party	1,453	Elected
ROBINSON	Scott Andrew	The Green Party	815
RYLANCE	Sinead	Communist Future - there is an alternative!	29
TOMAR	Praveen	The Conservative Party Candidate	129

Sure they're a nice enough lot but those results sound like they might want to rethink their approach a little bit. Although on the bright side I suppose they're not far off from outperforming the tories in those wards.

 

[brogdale]

Bit late now, but I don't think this thread's had any mention of the fact that the 2024 locals saw the glorious debut of the Communist Future project:

Election results - Local elections 2024 | Manchester City Council

Past results for local and parliament elections and referendums in Manchester

www.manchester.gov.uk

Ancoats & Beswick​

Electorate: 12,679

Turnout: 30.08%

Candidate’s Surname	Other Name(s)	Description (if any)	Number of votes recorded	Elected
GOOD	Alan	Liberal Democrat	1,900	Elected
JARMAN	Julie	Labour Party	1,420
STRAFFORD	Chris	Communist Future - there is an alternative!	33
WALSH BENSON	Kate Sophie	The Green Party	366
WAN	Paul	The Conservative Party Candidate	76

Cheetham​

Electorate: 13,818

Turnout: 27.88%

Candidate’s Surname	Other Name(s)	Description (if any)	Number of votes recorded	Elected
ALI	Dawud	Independent	1,218
ALI	Shaukat	Labour Party	1,906	Elected
ASSAM	Patience	The Conservative Party Candidate	150
MORRISON	Roderick George Donald	Liberal Democrats	191
POTTS	Edmund	Communist Future - there is an alternative!	31
REZA-KHAN	Fesl	The Green Party	315

Piccadilly​

Electorate: 9,636

Turnout: 26.90%

Candidate’s Surname	Other Name(s)	Description (if any)	Number of votes recorded	Elected
HARRISON	Allison	Liberal Democrat	140
LYONS	Jon-Connor	Labour Party	1,453	Elected
ROBINSON	Scott Andrew	The Green Party	815
RYLANCE	Sinead	Communist Future - there is an alternative!	29
TOMAR	Praveen	The Conservative Party Candidate	129

Sure they're a nice enough lot but those results sound like they might want to rethink their approach a little bit. Although on the bright side I suppose they're not far off from outperforming the tories in those wards.

Only 43 votes shy of the vermin in Ancoats!

 

[Rimbaud]

Only 43 votes shy of the vermin in Ancoats!

Chris Strafford, I think I had him as a Facebook friend once upon a time, I think he was at University of Manchester at the same time as me and we moved in similar circles but I didn't know him well. Nice enough fella but extremely ideological if it's the guy I'm thinking of.

 

[Dom Traynor]

Chris Strafford, I think I had him as a Facebook friend once upon a time, I think he was at University of Manchester at the same time as me and we moved in similar circles but I didn't know him well. Nice enough fella but extremely ideological if it's the guy I'm thinking of.

Yes sure I know him from somewhere as well

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Chris Strafford, I think I had him as a Facebook friend once upon a time, I think he was at University of Manchester at the same time as me and we moved in similar circles but I didn't know him well. Nice enough fella but extremely ideological if it's the guy I'm thinking of.

TBF I'd probably expect extremely ideological from someone standing for 'Communist Future.'

 

[ska invita]

The Greens. Socialist revolutionaries in cities, nimbies in the sticks. Worse trimmers than the LDs.

Interesting article in the FT today on the Tory Nimby to Green vote

https://archive.ph/42FDK

In the latest local elections, the Greens took more seats from the Conservatives than from Labour (32 to 31). It’s the second wave of a dramatic surge: in May last year, three-quarters of the party’s gains were from the Tories across the south, south-east and east of England. Much of this was in picturesque areas where, says Green co-leader Adrian Ramsay, locals feel “overlooked” or “left behind”.
------------------
Analysts have started to spot a pattern in British Election Study data, noting that Tory to Green switchers are over-represented in the east and south of England. They can flesh out a picture of those who voted Conservative in 2019 under Boris Johnson (a prime minister who took the environment, if not much else, seriously) and then Green last May.

“They are an interesting breed,” says Steve Akehurst, a polling analyst. These blue-to-green switchers are notably more female but otherwise look like other Tory voters: older, richer, homeowners, more likely to be Brexiters and socially conservative.

One thing sets them apart: “They are just really into nature issues.”
Some political observers see an unholy alliance of conservationists, the anti-growth movement and affluent Leavers rebelling against change. According to political historian Glen O’Hara, “it’s essentially a set of reactions against modernity on both left and right”.

 

[brogdale]

Interesting article in the FT today on the Tory Nimby to Green vote

https://archive.ph/42FDK

In the latest local elections, the Greens took more seats from the Conservatives than from Labour (32 to 31). It’s the second wave of a dramatic surge: in May last year, three-quarters of the party’s gains were from the Tories across the south, south-east and east of England. Much of this was in picturesque areas where, says Green co-leader Adrian Ramsay, locals feel “overlooked” or “left behind”.
------------------
Analysts have started to spot a pattern in British Election Study data, noting that Tory to Green switchers are over-represented in the east and south of England. They can flesh out a picture of those who voted Conservative in 2019 under Boris Johnson (a prime minister who took the environment, if not much else, seriously) and then Green last May.

“They are an interesting breed,” says Steve Akehurst, a polling analyst. These blue-to-green switchers are notably more female but otherwise look like other Tory voters: older, richer, homeowners, more likely to be Brexiters and socially conservative.

One thing sets them apart: “They are just really into nature issues.”
Some political observers see an unholy alliance of conservationists, the anti-growth movement and affluent Leavers rebelling against change. According to political historian Glen O’Hara, “it’s essentially a set of reactions against modernity on both left and right”.

New, large housing developments in/around smaller towns being one obvious (nimby) driver.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

That 'green and pleasant land' stuff has always been a part of Tory culture hasn't it. I can see that switch makes sense in some places, driven more by local environmental issues than by climate change etc.

 

[ska invita]

That 'green and pleasant land' stuff has always been a part of Tory culture hasn't it. I can see that switch makes sense in some places, driven more by local environmental issues than by climate change etc.

But the article also makes the point that after Boris J the Tories have 180d on their green policies and that has alienated these voters who do care about climate change also

 

[Leafster]

Interesting article in the FT today on the Tory Nimby to Green vote

https://archive.ph/42FDK

In the latest local elections, the Greens took more seats from the Conservatives than from Labour (32 to 31). It’s the second wave of a dramatic surge: in May last year, three-quarters of the party’s gains were from the Tories across the south, south-east and east of England. Much of this was in picturesque areas where, says Green co-leader Adrian Ramsay, locals feel “overlooked” or “left behind”.
------------------
Analysts have started to spot a pattern in British Election Study data, noting that Tory to Green switchers are over-represented in the east and south of England. They can flesh out a picture of those who voted Conservative in 2019 under Boris Johnson (a prime minister who took the environment, if not much else, seriously) and then Green last May.

“They are an interesting breed,” says Steve Akehurst, a polling analyst. These blue-to-green switchers are notably more female but otherwise look like other Tory voters: older, richer, homeowners, more likely to be Brexiters and socially conservative.

One thing sets them apart: “They are just really into nature issues.”
Some political observers see an unholy alliance of conservationists, the anti-growth movement and affluent Leavers rebelling against change. According to political historian Glen O’Hara, “it’s essentially a set of reactions against modernity on both left and right”.

I would have thought the bit I've put in bold (older, richer, homeowners) have always been a major demographic for the green party. I suspect that's why they are labelled as too middle-class by some.

It's those with more disposable income who have been early adopters of green technology. They've been able to 'do their bit' for the environment at a micro-level. It's a strong part of the green tradition that things are done on a local scale. If you look at the ideas of permaculture, it's about working with nature so pylons and solar farms (and the like) are seen as industrialisation on an unnecessary scale.

I suspect more recent problems like polluted rivers, a continued emphasis on fossil fuel extraction by the Tories and a plan for the future which includes more reliance on nuclear power has been enough to see more voters shifting from the Tories to the Greens regardless of other aspects of their political beliefs.

 

[BusLanes]

But the article also makes the point that after Boris J the Tories have 180d on their green policies and that has alienated these voters who do care about climate change also

A lot of really Brexity mob within the Conservatives and adjacent media were long angry with Cameron onwards environmental policies and so once they felt they had Brexit over the line turned their energies onto the issue.

Sunak feels like he's very much one of these people too. Very much of view environmentalism is fine unless it costs any money and if it does that it can be cut.

 

[mx wcfc]

I suspect more recent problems like polluted rivers,

90% of the local Tory candidates output has been about river pollution and what a brilliant job the tories are doing.

They lost three rural seats to the greens in the local elections.

Question round here is, what will those ex Tory voters do at the GE. Will they go back to the vermin, stick with the greens or vote tactically LD?

 

[ska invita]

But the article also makes the point that after Boris J the Tories have 180d on their green policies and that has alienated these voters who do care about climate change also

Add that to the results in Hastings ("deprived" areas turning green).... It's going to be a hard coalition to maintain as they get bigger, even with the best consciousness raising party politics but I remain convinced that sooner or later "environmentalism" (coupled with democratic socialist policies) will have a breakthrough across class divisions, spurned on by the reality of ever worsening physical environmental reality and the impact of that on living conditions

 

[Dogsauce]

That 'green and pleasant land' stuff has always been a part of Tory culture hasn't it. I can see that switch makes sense in some places, driven more by local environmental issues than by climate change etc.

It’s the National Trust / Ramblers / Twitcher end of things isn’t it? Tbh I don’t mind finding common ground with people who are perhaps more economically / socially conservative on this, as long as they don’t suddenly start going on about the importance of population control on environmental grounds (because it’s always populations of a particular hue that they seem to have a problem with).